Market Insights with Gary Thomson: 5 - 9 MayMarket Insights with Gary Thomson: Fed and BoE Rate Decisions, Canada Jobs, Earnings Reports
In this video, we’ll explore the key economic events, market trends, and corporate news shaping the financial landscape. Get ready for expert insights into forex, commodities, and stocks to help you navigate the week ahead. Let’s dive in!
In this episode, we discuss:
— Fed’s Interest Rate Decision
— BoE’s Interest Rate Decision
— Unemployment Rate in Canada
— Corporate Earnings Statements
Don’t miss out—gain insights to stay ahead in your trading journey.
This video represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
Weeklyforecast
ES Futures at a Crossroads: Fed Steady, Market ReadyCME_MINI:ES1!
Recent Market Performance
ES Futures experienced a significant decline of 22.30% from the February 19, 2025 high of 6218.50 to the recent low of 4832 on Monday, April 7th, 2025. This drawdown included a sharp 16.30% sell-off, triggered by the announcement of reciprocal tariffs, marking a decline from the April 2, 2025 high to the April 7th low.
Since forming that low, ES Futures have rebounded impressively—rallying 18.48% into the May 2nd high, retracing well over 50% of the losses. Notably, price action has closely respected Fibonacci retracement levels, as illustrated in the accompanying chart.
Macro Fundamentals
There are several macroeconomic considerations at play:
• Quarterly GDP data appears skewed due to front-loaded imports, evident in the January and February import numbers.
• This week’s March trade balance, imports, and exports data for both the U.S. and China will be crucial. These figures will shed light on how escalating tariff tensions have influenced Q1 business activity.
• The key event this week is the Federal Reserve interest rate decision and FOMC press conference. Of particular interest will be how the Fed’s risk outlook has evolved in light of Trade War 2.0, along with updates to growth and inflation forecasts.
While the Fed is expected to hold rates steady, there are increasing calls from President Trump to cut rates. Although recent soft data has shown signs of deterioration, this has not yet translated into hard data. In fact, April’s Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) report beat expectations, underscoring continued economic resilience.
Key Question: What Comes Next?
Will ES Futures continue to trend higher, reverse lower, or consolidate?
Key Technical Levels
• mCVAL: 5635
• Upper Neutral Zone : 5620 – 5585
• March 2025 Low: 5533.75
• Lower Neutral Zone : 5171.75 – 5150.75
Fibonacci Retracement Levels (2025 High to Low)
• 2025 High: 6218.50
• 0.786 Retracement: 5921.75
• 0.618 Retracement: 5688.75
• 0.5 Level (Mid-Range): 5525.25
• 2025 Low: 4832
Our View
We believe downside risks are currently minimized, barring a new market-moving development—such as a disruptive social media post. Q1 earnings have broadly reflected strength, reducing the probability of further downside in the near term.
Given the current backdrop:
• Positive news could act as a catalyst for higher prices.
• In the absence of significant newsflow, we expect consolidation, followed by a potential resumption of the upward trend.
Scenario 1
A pullback to either the blue support zone near the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement confluence, or a deeper pullback towards the confluence of the 2025 mid-range and March 2025 lows, followed by a continuation higher.
Scenario 2
Seasonality supports consolidation. Historical index behavior at this time of year further aligns with the potential for sideways movement before the next leg higher.
USD Is Bullish Short Term. Short The Majors! This is the FOREX outlook for the week of April 28 - May 2nd.
In this video, we will analyze the following FX markets:
USD Index
EUR
GBP
AUD
NZD
CAD, USDCAD
CHF, USDCHF
JPY, USDJPY
The USD Index is heading up towards a bearish FVG. The EURUSD, GBPUSD, and the other Major pairs will be pulled down by this price action .... until the USD hits it's POI. Then things will get interesting!
Take advantage of the USD push higher!
Remember, NFP is Friday! Be careful of wonky price action on Thursday and Friday.
Enjoy!
May profits be upon you.
Leave any questions or comments in the comment section.
I appreciate any feedback from my viewers!
Like and/or subscribe if you want more accurate analysis.
Thank you so much!
Disclaimer:
I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor.
All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies.
I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here.
Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
Weekly Market Forecast: Buy Stocks! Sell Oil! Buy Gold!In this video, we will analyze the S&P 500, NASDAQ, DOW JONES, Oil, Gold and Silver futures, for the week of April 28 - May 2nd.
Markets are looking tradeable again.
The indices look bullish, creating +FVGs as they move higher.
Oil has corrected a bearish impulse, so it could be poised to move lower from the Daily and Weekly -FVG.
Gold took a breather last week and could move higher from the Weekly +FVG it just created.
Let's go!
Enjoy!
May profits be upon you.
Leave any questions or comments in the comment section.
I appreciate any feedback from my viewers!
Like and/or subscribe if you want more accurate analysis.
Thank you so much!
Disclaimer:
I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor.
All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies.
I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here.
Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
Weekly Market Forecast WTI CRUDE OIL: Bearish! Wait For SellsThis forecast is for the week of April 21 - 25th.
Oil has made a classic bearish impulse down, then a corrective retracement. The natural expectation is another impulse down. The fact that price pulled back into a W -FVG allows for this bearish expectation.
Wait for a bearish break of market structure to confirm a valid sell setup... and trade accordingly. No confirmation, not trade!
Check the comments section below for updates regarding this analysis throughout the week.
Enjoy!
May profits be upon you.
Leave any questions or comments in the comment section.
I appreciate any feedback from my viewers!
Like and/or subscribe if you want more accurate analysis.
Thank you so much!
Disclaimer:
I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor.
All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies.
I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here.
Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
Market Insights with Gary Thomson: April 14 - 18Market Insights with Gary Thomson: UK & Canada Inflation, BOC & ECB Rates, Corporate Earnings
In this video, we’ll explore the key economic events, market trends, and corporate news shaping the financial landscape. Get ready for expert insights into forex, commodities, and stocks to help you navigate the week ahead. Let’s dive in!
In this episode, we discuss:
- UK’s Unemployment and Inflation Rates
- Inflation Rate in Canada & BOC Interest Rate Decision
- ECB Interest Rate Decision
- Corporate Earnings Statements
Don’t miss out—gain insights to stay ahead in your trading journey.
This video represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
EurAud sell insight Price rejects an old weekly level 1.84352 clearing the previous week's high 1.82907 hence closing bearish.
Now I'm anticipating the previous week's low to be cleared so I'm bearish for the week 1.71115 (previous week low) as my draw of Liquidity 🧲
1.81291 and 1.84782 are my point of interest to short after getting confirmation
Kindly boost of you find this insightful 🫴
GOLD & SILVER Weekly Market Forecast: Wait For Buys!In this video, we will analyze the GOLD & Silver Futures. We'll determine the bias for the upcoming week of April 14-18th, and look for the best potential setups.
Gold is still bullish, making new ATH's. Silver is not as strong, but had a very strong previous week after sweeping the range lows.
I would take valid buy setups in Gold, but not in Silver. I would prefer sells in Silver. Trade one, not both. The stronger for buys and the weaker for sells.
Enjoy!
May profits be upon you.
Leave any questions or comments in the comment section.
I appreciate any feedback from my viewers!
Like and/or subscribe if you want more accurate analysis.
Thank you so much!
Disclaimer:
I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor.
All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies.
I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here.
Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
Weekly FOREX Forecast: Wait To Buy JPY vs USD!In this video, we will analyze JPY futures and USDJPY. We'll determine the bias for the upcoming week, and look for the best potential setups.
The Yen is strong, and will outperform the USD in times of uncertainty. It is the worlds' safe haven of choice.
Look for a small retracement before JPY pushes higher.
Enjoy!
May profits be upon you.
Leave any questions or comments in the comment section.
I appreciate any feedback from my viewers!
Like and/or subscribe if you want more accurate analysis.
Thank you so much!
Disclaimer:
I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor.
All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies.
I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here.
Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
Weekly FOREX Forecast: Wait for Buys vs USD!This is the FOREX outlook for the week of April 14-18th.
In this video, we will analyze the following FX markets:
USD Index
EUR
GBP
AUD
NZD
CAD
CHF
JPY
The USD is still overall bearish... but is due for a correction. Short term bullishness in the USD is what I am monitoring this week, then aa resumption of it's bearish trend. This will provide
buying opportunities in xxxUSD pairs, and selling opportunities in USDxxx pairs.
Enjoy!
May profits be upon you.
Leave any questions or comments in the comment section.
I appreciate any feedback from my viewers!
Like and/or subscribe if you want more accurate analysis.
Thank you so much!
Disclaimer:
I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor.
All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies.
I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here.
Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
Weekly Market Forecast: Stocks Markets Could Push Higher!In this video, we will analyze the S&P 500, NASDAQ, and DOW JONES futures for the week of April 14-18th.
The Stock Market Indices ended a turbulent week on a bullish note, and next week could see some continuation. The markets have peeked above the consolidation, and could be on the way to resume the overall bullish trend.
Wait for confirmations of the trend before jumping in! One bad report of tariffs or geo-political news can turn the markets down at any time.
Enjoy!
May profits be upon you.
Leave any questions or comments in the comment section.
I appreciate any feedback from my viewers!
Like and/or subscribe if you want more accurate analysis.
Thank you so much!
Disclaimer:
I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor.
All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies.
I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here.
Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
Market Insights with Gary Thomson: April 7 - 11Market Insights with Gary Thomson: FOMC Minutes, US Inflation Rate, US PPI, Earnings Reports
In this video, we’ll explore the key economic events, market trends, and corporate news shaping the financial landscape. Get ready for expert insights into forex, commodities, and stocks to help you navigate the week ahead. Let’s dive in!
In this episode, we discuss:
- FOMC Meeting Minutes
- US Inflation Rate
- US Producer Price Index
- Corporate Earnings Statements
Don’t miss out—gain insights to stay ahead in your trading journey.
This video represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
Weekly Market Forecast: Short Term Buys, Then Sells! In this video, we will analyze the S&P 500, NASDAQ, AND DOW JONES Futures for the week of April 7 - 11th.
The Stock Market Indices may find support at current levels for a Bear Market Rally. Wait for the market structure shift to the upside before taking any buys. Let the market confirm it's intended direction first, then look for valid buy setups for a short term countertrend play.
Enjoy!
May profits be upon you.
Leave any questions or comments in the comment section.
I appreciate any feedback from my viewers!
Like and/or subscribe if you want more accurate analysis.
Thank you so much!
Disclaimer:
I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor.
All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies.
I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here.
Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
XAU-USD 07-11 April 2025 Weekly AnalysisWeekly Analysis:
Swing Structure -> Bullish.
Internal Structure -> Bullish.
Analysis and bias remains the same as analysis dated 16 March 2025.
In my analysis dated 27 October 2024 I mentioned (below) that price could potentially print higher in order to reposition CHoCH. This is exactly how price printed. CHoCH positioning has been brought significantly closer to current price action.
The remainder of my analysis and bias remains the same as analysis dated 09 February 2025.
Price has printed a further bullish iBOS.
Price is currently trading within an internal low and fractal high. CHoCH positioning is denoted with a blue dashed line.
Price Action Analysis:
In my analysis dated 27 October 2024, it was noted that the first sign of a pullback would be a bearish Change of Character (CHoCH), indicated by a blue dotted line. Price's consistent upward momentum had repositioned previous CHoCH much closer to recent price levels as expected for weeks. Current CHoCH positioning is quite a distance away from price, therefore, it would be viable if price continued bullish to reposition ChOCH.
Note:
It is highly unlikely price will "crash" as many analysts are predicting. My view is this is merely a corrective wave of the primary trend.
Given the Federal Reserve's dovish policy stance alongside heightened geopolitical risks, market volatility is likely to remain elevated, influencing intraday price swings.
Price could also be driven by President Trump's policies, geopolitical moves and economic decisions which are sparking uncertainty.
Weekly Chart:
Daily Analysis:
Swing -> Bullish.
Internal -> Bullish.
Price continued bullish repositioning bearish CHoCH positioning closer to current price action.
Price is now trading within an internal low and fractal high.
Price has very nearly printed a bearish which is the first indication, but not confirmation, of bearish pullback phase initiation.
Expectation is for price to print bearish CHoCH to indicate, bearish pullback phase initiation. CHoCH positioning is denoted with a blue dotted line.
Note:
With the Fed maintaining a dovish policy stance and the continued rise in geopolitical tensions, we should anticipate elevated market volatility, which may impact both intraday and longer-term price action.
Price could also be driven by President Trump's policies, geopolitical moves and economic decisions which are sparking uncertainty and the repricing of Gold.
Daily Chart:
H4 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bullish.
Analysis and bias remains the same as analysis dated 04 April 2025.
Since last analysis price has printed a bearish CHoCH which is the first indication, but not confirmation of bearish pullback phase initiation.
Price is now trading within an established internal range.
Intraday Expectation:
Price to trade down to either discount of internal 50% EQ, or H4 demand zone before targeting weak internal high priced at 3,187,835
Note:
With the Federal Reserve's dovish stance and persisting geopolitical uncertainties, heightened volatility in Gold is expected to continue. Traders should proceed with caution and adjust risk management strategies in this high-volatility environment.
Price could also be driven by President Trump's policies, geopolitical moves and economic decisions which are sparking uncertainty.
H4 Chart:
Market Insights with Gary Thomson: 31 March - 4 AprilMarket Insights with Gary Thomson: RBA Rates, US and Canada’s Employment Data & Earnings Reports
In this video, we’ll explore the key economic events, market trends, and corporate news shaping the financial landscape. Get ready for expert insights into forex, commodities, and stocks to help you navigate the week ahead. Let’s dive in!
In this episode, we discuss:
- RBA Interest Rate Decision
- US Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate
- Unemployment Rate in Canada
- Corporate Earnings Statements
Don’t miss out—gain insights to stay ahead in your trading journey.
This video represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
GBPUSD Weekly FOREX Forecast: Wait for BUYS!In this video, we will analyze GBPUSD and GBP Futures for the week of March 31 - April 4th. We'll determine the bias for the upcoming week, and look for the best potential setups.
The GBP has been a bit stronger than its counterparts, and currently in consolidation. I am waiting for a high probability setup, which would entail as sweep of SSL and a tap of the Weekly +FVG before moving higher.
Enjoy!
May profits be upon you.
Leave any questions or comments in the comment section.
I appreciate any feedback from my viewers!
Like and/or subscribe if you want more accurate analysis.
Thank you so much!
Disclaimer:
I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor.
All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies.
I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here.
Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
EURUSD Weekly FOREX Forecast: BUY IT!In this video, we will analyze EURUSD and EUR Futures for the week of March 31 - April 4th. We'll determine the bias for the upcoming week, and look for the best potential setups.
The bias is bullish for now, but the April 2nd tariffs can flip the markets upside down. Be careful. Let the market tell you which direction it's going, and trade accordingly. Allow the markets to settle on a bias before you jump in.
NFP on Friday, btw.
Enjoy!
May profits be upon you.
Leave any questions or comments in the comment section.
I appreciate any feedback from my viewers!
Like and/or subscribe if you want more accurate analysis.
Thank you so much!
Disclaimer:
I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor.
All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies.
I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here.
Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
Weekly Market Forecast: SELL THE INDICES!In this video, we will analyze the S&P 500, NASDAQ, AND DOW JONES Futures for the week of March 31st - April 4th.
The equity markets took a bearish turn last week. This is likely to continue for the upcoming week.
Monday is the end of March. Tuesday brings a new week and new opportunities. April 2nd brings... potentially market flipping volatility. The day the Trump tariffs are implemented.
Be careful. Let the market give you direction, and then get involved.
Enjoy!
May profits be upon you.
Leave any questions or comments in the comment section.
I appreciate any feedback from my viewers!
Like and/or subscribe if you want more accurate analysis.
Thank you so much!
Disclaimer:
I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor.
All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies.
I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here.
Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
Bullish Divergence on Monthly TF.Bullish Divergence on Monthly TF.
Weekly Support seems to be around 30.
& Important Resistance is around 32-33.
Though a re-testing of breakout done. but
Important to Sustain 24.90
As of now, Stock is in sideways movement;
& it will be Bullish once it will cross 36.
A positive point is that there are multiple
bullish / hidden bullish divergences on
different time frames.
EURJPY Weekly Forecast: Triple Bottom Breakout & Bullish Target Overview of the Chart & Market Structure
The EUR/JPY daily timeframe chart presents a Triple Bottom Pattern, a powerful bullish reversal formation that suggests a potential shift in market sentiment. This pattern occurs when price tests a key support level three times and fails to break lower, indicating strong buying interest at that zone.
Historically, a Triple Bottom leads to a significant trend reversal as sellers lose strength and buyers gain control. If confirmed by a breakout above resistance, this setup could provide a high-probability trading opportunity for swing traders and position traders.
Key Chart Components & Price Action Analysis
1. Triple Bottom Formation
The three bottoms marked on the chart represent repeated failed attempts by sellers to push the price lower:
Bottom 1 (August 2024): The first rejection from the support zone (~155.000) led to a temporary bounce.
Bottom 2 (October 2024): Price retested the same level, but buyers stepped in again, preventing a breakdown.
Bottom 3 (March 2025): The final test of support confirmed a strong accumulation zone, setting the stage for a potential bullish breakout.
In technical analysis, a Triple Bottom is considered a stronger reversal signal than a Double Bottom, as it represents prolonged buying pressure at key levels.
2. Support & Resistance Levels
Support Zone (~155.086): This level has been tested multiple times and remains a solid demand zone, where buyers have consistently entered the market.
Resistance Zone (~166.000): This level represents the neckline of the pattern, which must be breached to confirm a bullish reversal.
Breakout Target (~179.233): If price breaks out above 166.000, the projected target is set at 179.233, based on the height of the Triple Bottom pattern.
Trading Strategy & Entry Plan
1. Entry Point – Waiting for Confirmation
A buy trade should be initiated ONLY after a confirmed breakout above the resistance level (~166.000). Traders should wait for a daily candle close above this level, preferably with high volume, to confirm the breakout.
2. Stop Loss Placement
A stop-loss should be placed below the third bottom (support level) at 155.086 to minimize risk.
This placement ensures that if price invalidates the pattern by moving below the support level, the trade is exited early.
3. Profit Target Calculation
The measured move technique is applied to estimate the target. The height of the pattern (distance from support to resistance) is projected upward from the breakout point.
Target price: 179.233, aligning with historical resistance.
4. Risk-to-Reward Ratio & Position Sizing
The risk-to-reward ratio (RRR) for this setup is favorable, making it an attractive swing trade opportunity.
Traders should adjust position sizes based on risk tolerance, ensuring proper money management principles are applied.
Additional Confirmation Factors
1. Volume Analysis
A breakout with increasing volume will confirm strong bullish momentum.
Weak volume during breakout could indicate a false breakout, requiring caution.
2. RSI & Momentum Indicators
RSI trending above 50 suggests growing bullish strength.
Bullish divergence on RSI or MACD would add further confidence to the trade.
3. Retest of Resistance as Support
Often, after breaking resistance, price retests the breakout level before moving higher.
This could offer a secondary entry opportunity for traders who miss the initial breakout.
Potential Risks & Market Conditions to Watch
False Breakouts – If price fails to sustain above resistance, the pattern could be invalidated.
Macroeconomic Events – Major news events, such as ECB or BOJ policy decisions, could impact EUR/JPY movement.
Geopolitical Uncertainty – Unexpected events may cause volatility and deviation from technical patterns.
Conclusion – High-Probability Bullish Setup
The Triple Bottom Pattern in EUR/JPY is shaping up as a strong bullish reversal setup. If the price successfully breaks above 166.000, a rally toward 179.233 is expected.
📌 Trading Plan Recap:
✅ Entry: Buy above 166.000 (confirmed breakout).
✅ Target: 179.233 (measured move projection).
✅ Stop Loss: 155.086 (below support).
✅ Risk-Reward Ratio: Favorable for swing traders.
This setup aligns well with technical and price action strategies, making it an attractive trade idea for the upcoming weeks.