WTICOUSD 4.85% decline ahead.WTICOUSD 4.85% decline ahead. Those who have been following my analysis have seen that I make my predictions using various mathematical model calculations. These include wave techniques , fractal techniques and ATR based calculations. My current analysis is a pure ATR based calculation. We start from the basic theory that the formation of a double wave sequence is given by the percentage size of the ATR of the previous wave sequence. Currently, a double downward wave sequence may be forming in the price movement of WTI. The size of the ATR decline during the first wave sequence is given. Our assumption is that the size of the second wave now forming is equal to the percentage size of the first wave sequence falling ATR. The percentage size of the first wave phase is 7.46% Therefore, we expect the size of the next falling wave to be 7.46%. Target price : 61.28 usd
Note : ATR can be measured on different trading terminals. There are many indicators from which data can be used to extract the ATR size. Almost any indicator that uses average value data in its underlying mathematics is suitable.
Wtioil
Technical analysis update: WTI oil (29th April 2021)As follow-up to previous idea on WTI oil published on 28th April 2021 we would like to upgrade our short term price target from 65 USD to 67.50 USD per barrel. Medium term price target is 70 USD per barrel. Bullish outlook is supported by climbing RSI and bullish crossover in DMI with subsequent revival of ADX action. MACD and Stochastic oscillator suggest burst toward upside.
Previous idea:
Disclaimer: This analysis is not intended to encourage buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not serve as basis for taking any trade action by individual investor. Your own due dilligence is highly advised before entering trade.
Technical analysis update: XOM (8th May 2021)XOM currently shows very high correlation with oil price. This coincides with our bullish outlook for oil prices. Furthermore, technical analysis of RSI and MACD remains bullish. We also see buildup in volume. Because of that we would like to upgrade our short term price target for Exxon Mobil to 65 USD per share. We believe that XOM will break above resistance at 62.55 USD during the next week. We view this as possible catalyst for move up.
Disclaimer: This analysis is not intended to encourage buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not serve as basis for taking any trade action by individual investor. Your own due dilligence is highly advised before entering trade.
WTI OIL Buy SignalPattern: Channel Up on 4H.
Signal: Buy as the price entered the 4H MA50 (blue) - 4H MA100 (green) range, which has been a Buy Zone before.
Target: 67.50 (just below the 2 month Resistance). With a little more risk you may pursue the 1.618 Fibonacci extension, depending on where the price bottoms now.
Most recent WTI signals:
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Crude Oil Looking Bullish!Where do we begin?
first, let's talk momentum.
Monthly - bullish
Weekly - turning bullish
Daily - bullish and increasing
4 Hr - so bullish
well, it seems like Crude will be revisiting $64.20 (target). There may be some turbulence along the way with the daily downtrend line but.. it's likely going to break. 🙄
Happy Trading folks!
Cheers!
Long Oil Trade! After a false break above the trendline, still, I was anticipating a move lower and perhaps a retest of the bottom trendline for a short entry... that didn't happen and so, we missed out. However, as we inch closer to fill the Shaven Head Candle which is marked on the chart, that same level is also a strong support level - hence the long trade to.. as you might guess, to fill a Shaven Head Candle at 62.83.
Happy Trading folks!
Cheers!
WTI OIL Buy SignalPattern: Channel Up on 4H.
Signal: Buy as the price rebounded on the Higher Lows trend-line of the Channel and is supported by the 4H MA100 (green trend-line), which has been the Support on the November 2020 - February 2021 uptrend.
Target: 66.00 (just below the 66.40 Resistance).
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WTI OIL First 4H Golden Cross since November!WTI Crude Oil has just formed a Golden Cross on the 4H chart (MA50 (blue trend-line) crossing above the MA200 (orange trend-line)), the first since November 12, 2020. The price action since March 12 is quite similar to late October - early November. After the Death Cross on October 27, 2020, a bottom was formed a few days later. Once the Golden Cross was formed on November 12, 2020, the very aggressive rally of December - March was initiated. We are on a similar situation right now. The March 26 Death Cross may have priced the Bottom and if so, then today's Golden Cross may kick-start a new rally. I expect a value above $70.00 before June.
Most recent WTI signal:
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Check the oil situation
It has already touched the resistance and has not been able to break it, and it is likely that the price will fall and return to further support from breaking the resistance because there is a death cross in the stock RSI indicator.
If we see another attempt to break the resistance and succeed, it is likely to climb to its nearest peak
In general, the price is more likely to fall because it has not been able to overcome its resistance and a death cross has occurred in the stock RSI indicator.
WTI OIL turned bullish againPattern: Channel Up on 4H.
Signal: Buy (A) after a pull-back on the 4H MA50/ Higher Lows trend-line, or (B) if Resistance 2 breaks first.
Target: (A) 66.45 (Resistance 2), (B) 69.00.
Most recent WTI idea projecting that rally:
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WTI OIL Emerging 4H MA50/100 Golden Cross. Rally ahead?Simple fractal comparison on WTI as the price is consolidating since the March 23 low and is approaching the Higher Lows trend-line that started on December 01.
As you see the current price action is quite similar to the late October - early November one. After the 4H MA50 crossed below the 4H MA100, a bottom was formed a few days later. Once the two crossed again on a Golden Cross this time, the very aggressive rally of December - March was initiated. We are on a similar situation right now. Has the March 23 MA50/100 Death Cross priced the Bottom? And if yes will an emerging MA50/100 Golden Cross kick-start a rally?
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WTI OIL should avoid this fractal at all costs.I don't call it Fractal of Doom for nothing. As you see WTI Oil hit the 2 year Resistance trend-line (red zone) that was first created on the April 23, 2019 High, and got strongly rejected on March 08, 2021. This is a Triple Top (counting the Jan 08, 2020 almost hit). A common characteristic of all three rejections is that after the initial drop, the price consolidated (orange rectangle) around on the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line). On the first 2 occasions, a bigger fall took place after this consolidation. Will it happen again this time?
It is worth pointing out also the important of the 50.00 - 51.00 zone (blue) as a long-term Support. It didn't only hold from January 2019 to January 2020 (broke due to the COVID pandemic) but also on January 2021. If the bigger fractal fall comes after the current consolidation, will that (blue) Support Zone hold again and cause another lengthy sideways period between this and the (red) Resistance?
I am really interested to read your opinions on it.
P.S. See the RSI similarities
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Crude Oil - Thoughts for 5 April 20218 hr chart with monthly view
Possible flag forming starting 23 March with last leg under development
50% retrace from 23rd low is 62.5x
Volume profile from March is outside of February which could be indicating a sideways month
April S1 is 55.1x and R1 is 65.8x and could possibly form the trading range for the month
Short term looking for a setup to take price first to S1 and then to R1 toward end of April
4hr Chart with weekly view
Looking at flag on chart with last leg under development
Volume profile for coming week inside last week's indicating a possible breakout week
Pivots compressing week over week with previous week compress 41% and this past week an additional 28%
Looking for fill of flag then larger correction down to April S1 (55.1x). Not sure how fast correct will occur or if this week consolidates more.
Weekly R1 is 62.71 and potential target for top of flag
100 tick renko
DEMA flipped negative signaling more down to come
looking for red brick with long wick high for trigger to buy June Puts
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50 tick renko
Flag developing. looking for completion to find a signal or trigger