The Fundamentals of Wyckoff Theory Richard DeMille Wyckoff was a famous stock trader and investor, born in the late 19th century (1873–1934). Wykoff was a pioneer in the technical approach to stock market research. Wyckoff’s analyzed these market operators and their operations and concluded where risk and reward were optimal for trading. He shows the position of stop-losses at all times, the importance of managing the risk of any trade, and he explained techniques used to campaign within the large trend ( bullish and bearish ).Wyckoff also founded Wall Street Magazine.
A five-step approach to the market.
Wyckoff also developed specific Buying and Selling Tests, as well as a unique charting method based on Point and Figure (P&F) charts. While the tests help traders spot better entries, the P&F method is used to define trading targets. However, this article won’t dive into these two topics.
Accumulation
The Composite Man accumulates assets before most investors. This phase is usually marked by a sideways movement. The accumulation is done gradually to avoid the price from changing significantly.
Uptrend
When the Composite Man is holding enough shares, and the selling force is depleted, he starts pushing the market up. Naturally, the emerging trend attracts more investors, causing demand to increase.
Notably, there may be multiple phases of accumulation during an uptrend. We may call them re-accumulation phases, where the bigger trend stops and consolidates for a while, before continuing its upward movement.
As the market moves up, other investors are encouraged to buy. Eventually, even the general public become excited enough to get involved. At this point, demand is excessively higher than supply.
Distribution
Next, the Composite Man starts distributing his holdings. He sells his profitable positions to those entering the market at a late stage. Typically, the distribution phase is marked by a sideways movement that absorbs demand until it gets exhausted.
Downtrend
Soon after the distribution phase, the market starts reverting to the downside. In other words, after the Composite Man is done selling a good amount of his shares, he starts pushing the market down. Eventually, the supply becomes much greater than demand, and the downtrend is established.
Similar to the uptrend, the downtrend may also have re-distribution phases. These are basically short-term consolidation between big price drops. They may also include Dead Cat Bounces or the so-called bull traps, where some buyers get trapped, hoping for a trend reversal that doesn’t happen. When the bearish trend is finally over, a new accumulation phase begins.
Wyckoffdistribution
Bitcoin is still in a distribution phase, sorry bulls.Hi guys,
so my previous idea that we had a falling wedge with higher probability that we would make a push back upwards towards 7.8k range worked out pretty well
I was short term bullish, and I was watching and waiting for that tick upwards.. but I think the end is very near and we are heading towards a big crash down
in the very near future, maybe in the following weeks, most probably before the halving happens..
looking at everything, I am seeing a Wyckoff distribution pattern that is currently being followed, and this spike upwards was nothing more than our UTAD test
we will probably be ranging a bit within these areas for a few days maybe.. but I think a big drop and crash down out of our rising wedge is likely to be happening
if we do close our monthly candle above the EMA21 I will be very bullish for bitcoin.. so that monthly candle close will tell us all, and that's only 6 days away :)
so for now, my bearish bias still remains, if you want to hear more reasons why? then you can still watch me live on Facebook or Youtube, just google " The Dang Oracle "
have been streaming live daily 7.30PM (UTC+8)
see you on the next one. #stayhome #staysafe #staycovidfree
-Ryu
Wyckoff Theory Predicts a May Breakout For BitcoinWyckoff distribution theory states that there is a proportional effect for every cause in the market. Thus, after every accumulation phase, there is a markup, distribution, and finally a markdown phase. More specifically, each phase has its distinct characteristics
The current Bitcoin price movement closely resembles the Wyckoff accumulation phase, which occurs in five stages, outlined by the letters A through E. According to it, the Bitcoin price is currently in stage B, which will end with a high near $9500. Afterwards,
Phase A began with the "Selling Climax" on Oct. 24, 2019, which was immediately succeeded by the "Automatic Response'', in which the price reached a new high. These values serve to outline the support and resistance areas of the range, which are shown with dashed horizontal white lines.
In phase B, the price crated slightly lower lows in the "Secondary Test," which acted as a spring was followed by an increase that ended at the range highs. If the price continues following this accumulation pattern, it will continue to increase until it reaches a high at the $9,500 area, followed by a decrease that marks the beginning of phase C. The fact that the daily RSI is below 50 supports this possibility, especially if it gets rejected by the 50 line, which is looking likely.
In this phase, there are two possible outlines for the BTC movement, outlined by dashed and solid lines. The dashed outline is bearish, and the price will create a lower low, which is otherwise known as a spring. If the price gets there, it would provide the ABSOLUTE maximum return for investors.The solid line (more common) would create a higher low, otherwise known as the '' Last point of support''. The ensuing movement is the same, since the price is expected to reach a new high.
Stage D is characterised by the breakout, with the possible top above the range high being considered the "Show of Strength," while phase E takes the price to new territory, possibly aiming for the all-time high of $20,000.
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Happy trading everyone
EURGBP Short Setup Long-TermBeautiful Wyckoff Distribution Schematic 1 on the weekly timeframe, price is now creating the LPSY which will break the ice for the next drop to occur sending price on a markdown.
Nice Smart Money Sell Setup. They tricked dumb money into buying allowing them to enter sells at discounted price levels. Price has settled below the WAP where it is now creating the final LPSY of the Wyckoff pattern setting up another discounted sell entry price.
CUV: ASX - CLINUVEL PHARMACEUTICALSFrom September 2018 through to May 2019 this stock was in a re-accumulation phase. You can see there was a sell off in September when supply it the market and the stock pulled back.
From November the stock hit support and from there we started making higher lows. We took at the top of the trading range in late February where we a sign of strength. The stock was sold into that rise and we pulled back again.
It broke back down through the top of the range but bounced back very quickly. A definite last point of support before mark up. Completing the re-accumulation.
The stock ran well from May to July. The first sign that there may be a significant pull back at some stage was the steepness of how it moved higher. We did see a large amount of supply come in - the most we had ever seen.
Interestingly we only had a small pull back on lighter volume. The stock moved higher again with $40 in its sights. Look at the supply that came in June. A definite buying climax. A lot of retail traders were sucked into this one at that stage and the professionals were selling into the up move.
This time we saw a significant pull back. A certain first sign of weakness. Price took out the low before the high (Where demand came in) and it looked as if it was forming a distribution range to move lower.
The news changed that. It looks like further distribution then took place, which negated the need to move the stock sideways for a considerable time.
I believe this stock was heavily accumulated back in the $0 - $5 range and this has been a very long and patient campaign.
Stock was sold at approx $22, $29, $34, $38 and finally $44.
A very successful campaign.
$23.65 is the key level now. The low before the extreme move higher. If that is taken out, it could be heading a lot lower.
If it can hold that level and consolidate and build another accumulation range, it may move higher.
Right now its a holding pattern.
Happy New Years!
Wyckoff ConsolidationThis is turning into a very nice example of a Wyckoff Consolidation pattern in my opinion for Crude Oil. My bias is this is forming a distribution pattern with the BC, SOW, and UTAD in place. I have indicated Elliot wave counts and have EW projection for the move downward. Jan options expires tomorrow and have price pinned at around 57 +/- 1 so it is quit possible for a large downward movement to reach that price. I know this is not very precise or accurate but my short term work on options data has indicate there is no way to predict the exact price on day or expiry but seems like I can get within a dollar. Preliminary work at this time and looking to refine it a bit more.
I expect price to meander to resistance between 59.85 - 60.00 overnight and then proceed downward from there.
Information only. Do your own diligence and keep your own counsel when making trading decisions.
Good luck.
Lloyd.
AUDUSD DISTRIBUTION 1D - Shows consolidation toward resistant.
1HR - Consolidation headed toward PHASE E (mark-down). Currently giving us a confirmation.
15MIN - Flag has been formed with candlesticks respecting new resistance.
OVERALL - Currently in last few stages of distribution; waiting for markdown.
Wyckoff theory: GBP/AUD Application (short opportunity) Wyckoff developed a price action market theory which is still a leading principle in today's trading practice. The Wyckoff method states that the price cycle of a traded instrument consists of 4 stages – Accumulation, Markup, Distribution, and Mark Down.
Two Rules of Richard Wyckoff
The Wyckoff theory is based primarily on price action and the different cyclical stages the market falls in to. It is essential that we discuss two important rules stated in his book “Charting the Stock Market”. These two essential rules are paraphrased below.
The first rule of Richard Wyckoff states that the market never behaves the same way. Price action will never create a move in exactly the same way that it did in the past. The market is truly unique.
The second Richard Wyckoff rule is related to the first one. It states that since every price move is unique, its analytical importance comes when compared to previous price behavior.
Bitcoin has now broken below 9k. Were you surprised?If you guys saw my other BTC post (link: ) then you would know I had been mentioning this distribution schematic for some time, and we have now broken below 9k giving it a lot more validation. We are now trading under 8750, and price is looking quite bearish. I think this 8k range might be just a temporary stopping point before we eventually head down into the 7k region. The 9k region should act as a major resistance level now as well. Also, for any crypto traders out there, Binance just launched their US exchange (Binance US.) If you need a link to go sign up, click here--> www.binance.us
-This is not financial advice. Always do your own research and own due-diligence before investing and trading, as for investing and trading comes with high amounts of risk. I am not liable for any incurred losses or financial distress.
XAUUSD - GoldWere getting close to our ultimate distribution zones and I'm looking specifically at 3 possible entries for this to fall long term. Wyckoff distribution phases playing out quite nicely also. so sometime this week we should see the drop off to the open orders from the 31st July 2019 starting the price level of 1431.25
It's nearly go time!
PATIENCE - CONFIRMATION - ENTRY - PROFIT
EURUSD - SELLBreakout after Re-distribution (which was also a descending triangle). There was a fakeout to the upside yesterday with massive volume but price has now broken out to the downside today. Shout things play out, I expect price to go down to it's key level of 1.1000 if it breaks support at 1.10298, where I'll be looking to take partials and move stops to breakeven.