April 29 Trade Journal & Stock Market AnalysisEOD accountability report: +686.25
Sleep: 8 hour, Overall health: :thumbsup:
Overall a decent day, but signals felt iffy today.
**Daily Trade Signals based on VX Algo System**
— 10:00 AM Market Structure flipped bullish on VX Algo X3!
10:27 AM VXAlgo ES X1 Sell Signal (double signal) :x:
1:08 PM Market Structure flipped bearish on VX Algo X3! :x:
1:51 PM Market Structure flipped bullish on VX Algo X3!
— 2:20 PM VX Algo ES X1 Sell Signal :x:
— 3:38 PM VXAlgo ES X3 Sell Signal (Double signal)
Next day plan--> Over 5470 = Bullish, Under 5470 = Bearish
Video Recap -->https://www.tradingview.com/u/WallSt007/#published-charts
TSLA Potential Post Tariff Resolution Bullish RallyDespite uncertainty still looming over the current global tariff based environment, TSLA price still seems to exhibit signs of a potential Bullish breakout as the price action may form a prominent Higher Low on the longer timeframes with multiple confluences through key Fibonacci and Support levels which presents us with a potential Non-Leverage hold opportunity.
Entry: CMP 292
Stop Loss: 90 or 0 (depends on trading style as Non-Leverage Buy & Hold is recommended)
Potential Range for Targets: 470 - 550
Netflix - The bulls just never stop!Netflix - NASDAQ:NFLX - is insanely bullish now:
(click chart above to see the in depth analysis👆🏻)
The entire stock market basically collapsed during April. Meanwhile, Netflix is creating new all time highs with a +20% parabolic bullish candle. Looking at the chart, this strength is very likely to continue even more until Netflix will (again) retest the upper resistance trendline.
Levels to watch: $1.400
Keep your long term vision!
Philip (BasicTrading)
Cipher Mining (CIFR) – Accumulation Opportunity (1D Chart) Cipher Mining is bouncing from a well-defined historical demand zone (1.70-2.30) — a level that has consistently marked the start of powerful upside cycles.
📈 Technical Highlights:
✅ Major demand zone tested and respected — clear accumulation area
✅ MACD bullish crossover and histogram turning green
✅ RSI reversal from deep oversold — momentum shifting early
✅ Strong historical pattern: Each prior touch of this zone led to +100% moves
📈 Targets for Partial Profit-Taking:
✔️ TP1: $4.21
✔️ TP2: $5.29
✔️ TP3: $7.76+ (matches analyst avg. target of ~$7.84)
No hard stop — this is a mid- to long-term investment setup
🧠 Investor Context:
✅Analysts maintain a Strong Buy rating (avg PT: ~$8)
✅Cipher turned profitable in Q4 2024 and is expanding rapidly
✅Black Pearl (150MW) site goes live in Q2 → +70% hashrate growth
✅High exposure to Bitcoin upside, plus future HPC potential
✅Ideal setup for those building exposure to crypto infrastructure at cycle lows
📌 Note: Not a short-term trade. This is a high-conviction equity idea built on technical structure and strong fundamentals. Treat it as a long-hold with scaling opportunities.
We’ll provide updates on earnings, expansion news, and macro signals as this plays out. 🔒📊
SNAP is going down Market Context NYSE:SNAP
Current Price: $9.165
1-Month Move: +5.6% (from $8.68)
1-Year Move: -39.1% (from $15.05)
Year High/Low: $9.96/$7.16
Technicals:
RSI ~69.8 (near overbought)
Above 20-day MA, below 50/200-day MAs (short-term pop in a longer downtrend)
Options Data:
IV Rank: 75th percentile (high premiums)
Put/Call Ratio: 1.25 (bearish skew)
Max Pain: $8.00
High OI: $9.00 puts, $10.00 calls
Historical & Model Insights
Historical Move: SNAP averages 13.5% post-earnings, with a slight bearish bias (6/12 quarters down).
IV Crush: Expect 30–40% IV drop post-print, so time your exit carefully.
Model Consensus (Grok, Claude, Gemini, DeepSeek): Moderately Bearish
Why? Overextended rally, high IV, Max Pain at $8.00, and “sell the news” risk.
Outlier: One model (Llama/Meta) sees bullish momentum from call activity, but it’s drowned out by bearish signals.
Trade Setup
Strategy: Single-leg, naked put (bearish, defined risk)
Instrument: SNAP
Direction: Put
Strike: $8.50 (premium $0.52, fits $0.30–$0.60 target band)
Expiry: 2025-05-02 (first weekly post-earnings)
Entry Price: $0.52
Entry Timing: Pre-earnings close (2025-04-29)
Profit Target: $0.78 (~50% gain)
Stop Loss: $0.26 (50% loss)
Confidence: 65%
Expected Move: ±$1.24 (~13.5%)
Key Risks:
Positive earnings surprise (strong ad revenue or user growth).
Severe IV crush killing put value.
Broad market/tech rally lifting SNAP.
Upbeat guidance sparking a squeeze.
Alibaba - This Chart Speaks In Money!Alibaba ( NYSE:BABA ) prepares for a significant pump:
Click chart above to see the detailed analysis👆🏻
Basically since Alibaba was listed on the NYSE, it always perfectly respected market structure. With the recent rejection away from the key neckline, Alibaba is now creating a bullish break and retest. After bullish confirmation, this forms a bottom and we might see new all time highs.
Levels to watch: $110, $140
Keep your long term vision,
Philip (BasicTrading)
MicroStrategy on the Brink? $5.9 Billion Bitcoin Losses and MassIn Q1 2025, Strategy reported a staggering $5.91 billion unrealized loss on its Bitcoin holdings, primarily due to a significant drop in Bitcoin's price. Consequently, the company's stock plummeted by 6.3% following the announcement and has declined 41.9% since November 2024, underperforming both Bitcoin and the S&P 500 .
The Financial Accounting Standards Board's (FASB) new guidelines now allow companies to reflect the real-time market value of their digital assets. While this benefited companies like Tesla, it poses a significant risk for Strategy. With billions in unrealized Bitcoin gains, the company could face a substantial tax bill under the Corporate Alternative Minimum Tax introduced by the Inflation Reduction Act. This tax, set at 15%, could result in billions in liabilities starting in 2026, potentially forcing Strategy to liquidate some of its Bitcoin holdings to meet tax obligations .
Despite its significant Bitcoin holdings, Strategy's market capitalization stands at about $95 billion, double the value of its Bitcoin assets (currently around $50 billion in BTC). This discrepancy suggests that investors are paying a hefty premium for exposure to Bitcoin through Strategy, rather than purchasing the cryptocurrency directly or through other financial instruments. Analysts warn that this overvaluation could be unsustainable, especially if Bitcoin's price experiences further volatility .
Strategy's approach of continuously issuing debt and equity to fund Bitcoin purchases has been likened to a high-risk financial flywheel. Critics argue that this strategy is unsustainable and could collapse if Bitcoin's price declines or if the company faces regulatory scrutiny. Furthermore, co-founder Michael Saylor's past controversies, including a $40 million tax fraud settlement, add to the ethical concerns surrounding the company's leadership .
$SPOT Facing Resistance at 627–652 with Key Support at 484 UnderSpotify’s weekly chart shows a peak around the 627–652 range, where price action has failed to break through multiple times. This lack of upward momentum has left NYSE:SPOT vulnerable to potential downside. At the moment, 484 serves as an important support level. If it fails, it could open the door to a deeper pullback, possibly towards the 380–320 zone. Even if the price moves above 627, caution is advised, as there’s no solid signal for a sustained upward trend yet.
Tesla Faces Key Technical Hurdle Near $288Tesla shares have rebounded sharply from April’s low, but the rally is now stalling near a confluence of resistance:
🔴 $288.20 = February swing high
🔵 Price testing the 200-day SMA (~$291) from below
📈 MACD remains positive but momentum is flattening
📊 RSI at 58 – bullish but not yet overbought
A clean breakout above $288–291 would likely confirm a medium-term trend reversal, exposing upside toward $310 and possibly $340. Failure to break could see Tesla consolidate or fade back toward the 50-day SMA (~$268).
Keep an eye on volume and follow-through in the next couple of sessions.
-MW
TALLooks like price is near a support zone dating back between November '24 - January '25. If we look at the two "throw up" emojis price shot down pretty sharp and price started to trade sideways (one on the left) then price retraced a bit before making a new local "potential" support zone if price settles here. Got a big bear volume spike on 4/24/25. Momentum is on a pause right now so I'm interested to see if we get bullish momentum coming in toward the target range located on the chart. If price goes lower, we will look for a second entry if opportunity presents itself.
Diamond Top Pattern📉 Diamond Top Formation in Play?
This isn’t just a triangle—look closer.
What started as broadening volatility on the left has now tightened into a textbook Diamond Top, typically signaling a bearish reversal after a strong impulse move up.
⚠️ Key Signals:
• Left side expansion → Right side contraction = structural symmetry.
• Major EQH and liquidity sitting right above.
• Supply zone pressure at the top.
• Watch for a false breakout trap to liquidate late longs.
🔍 Confirmation = breakdown below rising trendline + spike in volume.
🧠 Smart money doesn’t trade patterns—they engineer them.
This one? It’s baiting breakout traders before a potential liquidity flush.
📊 Plan Ahead:
• Breakdown = short with momentum.
• Breakout = wait for trap/fakeout and fade the rally if supply holds.
⸻
💬 What do you see? Trap setup or trend continuation?
TTD eyes on $54.xx: Major Resistance to be flipped to SupportTTD dumped even before tariffs but trying to recover.
Now testing a major resistance zone at $54.21-54.34
If rejected then watch next support zone $51.26-51.43
Previous Analysis that called the top:
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$270 Target by June 20thThe Cyber Security space is one I anticipate to gain a lot of traction this year due to current economic environment. NASDAQ:CRWD Is already trading at a premium even though the market has had a downturn recently. NASDAQ:ZS is the only ticker comparable to it in terms of fundamental strength. I see institutional buying ramping up as more good news come out over the coming weeks. I like June 20, 2025 EXP Calls at $270 Strike for a play. Ideally would want to exit one week prior to expiry as I see it blowing past this target.
$SOFI top after earnings? Downside under $10NASDAQ:SOFI had a positive reaction to earnings, but has since sold off. It looks to me like earnings marked a high and that we're going to see price fall down to the support levels below.
We've now retested the area we broke down from, we've only had 4/5 waves to the downside, so to me, it looks like a last fall is likely before we see a longer term recovery.
Let's see how it plays out.
CORRECTED. NVDA HEADING INTO MAY 25'Still Bearish.
Clear top and been working down ever since
Yet another reject near the .382 FIB LEVEL, which was a reload zone in Q3 and Q4 of 2024.. now a sell zone since Q2 25' began as its cooled off from ATH to end 24 and begin 25.
Looking to buy @ .236 & lower.
Would not take a BUY higher until a break & hold above .5 to confirm some strength to an upside move.
NVDA overall as a company is going to be a powerhouse in multiple spaces in the future, we can all see that. It's not going anywhere and has multiple huge investments to push its industry hold even higher and revenue down the line to increase.
Their wide range of partnerships within the autonomous driving space with companies like GM, Toyota, TSLA (for its chips) and more position NVDA to be one of, if the not THE the largest market cap companies within the next 10 years to me.
Autonomous driving I personally feel will begin to make its way to a MAINSTREAM space beginning around 2030 and by 2030 will have an extreme space in day to day by 2035.
Long term vision beats short term gain!