Log-Normal Price ForecastLog-Normal Price Forecast
This Pine Script creates a log-normal forecast model of future price movements on a TradingView chart, based on historical log returns. It plots expected price trajectories and bands representing different levels of statistical deviation.
Parameters
Model Length – Number of bars used to calculate average and standard deviation of log returns (default: 100).
Forecast Length – Number of bars into the future for which the forecast is projected (default: 100, max: 500).
Volatility SMA Length – The smoothing length for the standard deviation (default: 20).
Confidence Intervals – Confidence intervals for price bands (default: 95%, 99%, 99.9%).
Statistics
Daily Levels & Stats Pro - [Aspect] v4.0# Description of the "Daily Levels & Stats Pro - v4.0" Indicator
This indicator is a powerful tool for market analysis through the lens of key daily levels and statistical price movement indicators. It allows you to display important trading session opening levels, daily statistical movements, and high volatility zones on the price chart.
## Main Indicator Functions:
### Key Time Levels:
- **Daily Open (DO)** - daily trading session opening level at 02:00
- **NY Midnight (NYM)** - New York session opening level at 06:00
- **Trade Open (TO)** - active trading opening level at 10:00
### Analysis Zones:
- **Previous Close Zone (PCZ)** - previous day's closing zone (displayed on M5 timeframe)
- **Open Day Zone (ODZ)** - current day's opening zone (displayed on M5 timeframe)
### Statistical Price Movement Levels:
- **Min** - minimum statistical movement from DO
- **Max** - maximum statistical movement from DO
- **Aver** - average statistical movement from DO
- **Dev-** - lower deviation of movement from DO
- **Dev+** - upper deviation of movement from DO
### TO Impulse Movement Statistical Levels:
- **Aver TO** - average statistical movement from TO
- **Dev+ TO** - upper deviation of movement from TO
- **Max TO** - maximum statistical movement from TO
## Indicator Features:
- Complete customization of colors, styles, and line widths for all levels
- Ability to select time for each main level
- Adjustment of the number of bars for level display
- Automatic calculation of level values relative to DO and TO
- Visual display of TO-levels starts 3 bars before the actual TO point, providing better visual perception
- Ability to enable/disable individual levels and zones
- Automatic updates and resets when the day changes
- Adaptive text labels to mark levels
This indicator is excellent for traders who use statistical data and daily support/resistance levels in their trading strategy. It is particularly useful for DAX40 and other highly liquid instruments where daily trading statistics are important for making trading decisions.
Log-Normal Z-ScoreLog-Normal Z-Score
This Pine Script indicator calculates a modified Z-Score based on log-normal returns, aiming to identify statistically significant price deviations.
Indicator Parameters:
Model Length: The number of bars used to calculate the mean and standard deviation of log returns.
Lookback Length: The number of bars used to compute the lookback return and volatility. This is the main timeframe over which the Z-Score is calculated.
Volatility SMA Length: The smoothing length for the volatility, applying a simple moving average to the calculated volatility.
TDO & Hit Rates by Weekday (5 min)Purpose
Tracks how often the next NY session “hits” the previous day’s True Day Open (TDO) level, separately for sessions that open above vs. below TDO, and breaks the statistics down by weekday (Mon–Fri) plus an overall summary.
Key Features
True Day Open (TDO) Plot
Captures the prior day’s 23:00 CT close price as the TDO.
Plots it as a continuous yellow line across your chart.
Session Labeling
At the end of each NY session (08:30–15:00 CT), places a small “TDO” label at the TDO price to confirm visually where it lay during that day.
Hit‑Count Logic
For each 5 min bar in the NY session, checks if the bar’s high ≥ TDO ≥ low (i.e. the TDO level was “hit”).
Classifies each session by whether its opening price (first 5 min bar) was above or below the TDO.
Weekday Statistics Table
Displays in the bottom‑left of your main chart window.
Rows: Header, Mon, Tue, Wed, Thu, Fri, All.
Columns:
% Hit Above: % of “above‑TDO” sessions that saw at least one hit
% Hit Below: % of “below‑TDO” sessions that saw at least one hit
Automatically updates in real time as new sessions complete.
Inputs & Settings
Data Resolution: Default = 5 min; use any intraday timeframe you like (1, 3, 15 min, etc.).
Extended Hours: Make sure your chart’s Extended Session (overnight) is enabled so the 23:00 CT bar exists.
Overlay: Draws directly on your price chart (no separate pane).
How to Use
Add to Chart: Paste the Pine v5 code into TradingView’s editor and apply to your ES (or other) futures chart.
Enable Overnight Bars: In Chart Settings → Symbol/Session → include Extended Hours.
Select Timeframe: Set the chart (or the indicator’s “Data Resolution” input) to 5 min (or your preferred intraday).
Read the Table:
Each weekday row shows how reliable TDO touches have been historically, separately for “above” and “below” opens.
The bottom “All” row summarizes combined performance.
What You Learn
Edge Analysis: Do sessions opening above TDO tend to test that level more often than those opening below (or vice versa)?
Day‑of‑Week Bias: Are certain weekdays more prone to TDO retests?
Overall Confidence: The “All” row lets you see your full-sample hit‑rate on both sides.
Log-Normal Price DistributionThis Pine Script indicator plots a log-normal distribution model of future price projections on a TradingView chart. It visualizes the potential price ranges based on the statistical properties (mean and standard deviation) of log returns over a defined period. It's particularly useful for analyzing potential volatility and predicting future price ranges.
MACD Bullish Cross Alert📘 Indicator Description – MACD Bullish Cross Alert
This indicator is designed to detect bullish momentum shifts using the classic MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) crossover strategy.
Key Features:
Calculates the MACD Line and Signal Line using customizable inputs (default: 12, 26, 9).
Triggers an alert when the MACD Line (blue) crosses above the Signal Line (orange).
Helps identify early bullish trend reversals or momentum entry points.
Ideal for swing traders, position traders, and crypto investors using the weekly timeframe.
How to Use:
Add to any chart and set the timeframe to 1W (weekly).
Create an alert using the built-in MACD Bullish Crossover condition.
Combine with price action, volume, or RSI for higher conviction entries.
Use Cases:
Spotting early entry points after long downtrends.
Confirming a trend reversal in high timeframes.
Generating high-probability entries in trend-following systems.
Auto Step Horizontal LinesAuto Step Horizontal lines by custom range
Create automatic horizontal lines by specifying the price range for each line, with each line serving as an observation point for support and resistance levels.
MG Universal model🚀 Summary🚀
The MG univerasal model is a composite of various items such as RSI, price Z-Score, Sharpe Ratio, Sortino Ratio, Omega Ratio, etc
Each component is normalized and then equally wheighted out to perform a global metric.
At the end, an Exponential Moving Average is added on the global metric.
You can easily find a description of each component on the internet, for the Crosby Ratio, it's a metric that comes from bitcoinmagazinepro.com.
✨ Key Features ✨
🗡 Smoothed Global Metric
Using a Moving average to smooth out the whole aggregated metric.
🗡 Bands Zone at extreme levels
Automatically displaying bands at top and bottom levels of the oscillator.
🗡 Normalizing components
Each component is normalized.
🗡 DataTable
Optional DataTable is available to check the score for each components and their related Z-Score.
📊 How I use it 📊
When catching up with 0 line (midline), crossing it :
if it goes above 0.2:
get out when it crosses 0.2 again
else:
get out when it crosses 0 again
That's the way I use it, may be there is a better way, FAFO :)
❓ Seeing a bug or an issue ❓
Feel free to DM me if you see a component that seems badly calculated.
I will be happy to fix it.
❗❗ Disclaimer ❗❗
This is a single indicator, even though it's aggregating many, do not use it as a standalone.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Always backtest, check, and align parameters before live trading.
Prop Firm Business SimulatorThe prop firm business simulator is exactly what it sounds like. It's a plug and play tool to test out any tradingview strategy and simulate hypothetical performance on CFD Prop Firms.
Now what is a modern day CFD Prop Firm?
These companies sell simulated trading challenges for a challenge fee. If you complete the challenge you get access to simulated capital and you get a portion of the profits you make on those accounts payed out.
I've included some popular firms in the code as presets so it's easy to simulate them. Take into account that this info will likely be out of date soon as these prices and challenge conditions change.
Also, this tool will never be able to 100% simulate prop firm conditions and all their rules. All I aim to do with this tool is provide estimations.
Now why is this tool helpful?
Most traders on here want to turn their passion into their full-time career, prop firms have lately been the buzz in the trading community and market themselves as a faster way to reach that goal.
While this all sounds great on paper, it is sometimes hard to estimate how much money you will have to burn on challenge fees and set realistic monthly payout expectations for yourself and your trading. This is where this tool comes in.
I've specifically developed this for traders that want to treat prop firms as a business. And as a business you want to know your monthly costs and income depending on the trading strategy and prop firm challenge you are using.
How to use this tool
It's quite simple you remove the top part of the script and replace it with your own strategy. Make sure it's written in same version of pinescript before you do that.
//--$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$--//--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------$$$$$$
//--$$$$$--Strategy-- --$$$$$$--// ******************************************************************************************************************************
//--$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$--//--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------$$$$$$
length = input.int(20, minval=1, group="Keltner Channel Breakout")
mult = input(2.0, "Multiplier", group="Keltner Channel Breakout")
src = input(close, title="Source", group="Keltner Channel Breakout")
exp = input(true, "Use Exponential MA", display = display.data_window, group="Keltner Channel Breakout")
BandsStyle = input.string("Average True Range", options = , title="Bands Style", display = display.data_window, group="Keltner Channel Breakout")
atrlength = input(10, "ATR Length", display = display.data_window, group="Keltner Channel Breakout")
esma(source, length)=>
s = ta.sma(source, length)
e = ta.ema(source, length)
exp ? e : s
ma = esma(src, length)
rangema = BandsStyle == "True Range" ? ta.tr(true) : BandsStyle == "Average True Range" ? ta.atr(atrlength) : ta.rma(high - low, length)
upper = ma + rangema * mult
lower = ma - rangema * mult
//--Graphical Display--// *-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-$$$$$$
u = plot(upper, color=#2962FF, title="Upper", force_overlay=true)
plot(ma, color=#2962FF, title="Basis", force_overlay=true)
l = plot(lower, color=#2962FF, title="Lower", force_overlay=true)
fill(u, l, color=color.rgb(33, 150, 243, 95), title="Background")
//--Risk Management--// *-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-$$$$$$
riskPerTradePerc = input.float(1, title="Risk per trade (%)", group="Keltner Channel Breakout")
le = high>upper ? false : true
se = lowlower
strategy.entry('PivRevLE', strategy.long, comment = 'PivRevLE', stop = upper, qty=riskToLots)
if se and upper>lower
strategy.entry('PivRevSE', strategy.short, comment = 'PivRevSE', stop = lower, qty=riskToLots)
The tool will then use the strategy equity of your own strategy and use this to simulat prop firms. Since these CFD prop firms work with different phases and payouts the indicator will simulate the gains until target or max drawdown / daily drawdown limit gets reached. If it reaches target it will go to the next phase and keep on doing that until it fails a challenge.
If in one of the phases there is a reward for completing, like a payout, refund, extra it will add this to the gains.
If you fail the challenge by reaching max drawdown or daily drawdown limit it will substract the challenge fee from the gains.
These gains are then visualised in the calendar so you can get an idea of yearly / monthly gains of the backtest. Remember, it is just a backtest so no guarantees of future income.
The bottom pane (non-overlay) is visualising the performance of the backtest during the phases. This way u can check if it is realistic. For instance if it only takes 1 bar on chart to reach target you are probably risking more than the firm wants you to risk. Also, it becomes much less clear if daily drawdown got hit in those high risk strategies, the results will be less accurate.
The daily drawdown limit get's reset every time there is a new dayofweek on chart.
If you set your prop firm preset setting to "'custom" the settings below that are applied as your prop firm settings. Otherwise it will use one of the template by default it's FTMO 100K.
The strategy I'm using as an example in this script is a simple Keltner Channel breakout strategy. I'm using a 0.05% commission per trade as that is what I found most common on crypto exchanges and it's close to the commissions+spread you get on a cfd prop firm. I'm targeting a 1% risk per trade in the backtest to try and stay within prop firm boundaries of max 1% risk per trade.
Lastly, the original yearly and monthly performance table was developed by Quantnomad and I've build ontop of that code. Here's a link to the original publication:
That's everything for now, hope this indicator helps people visualise the potential of prop firms better or to understand that they are not a good fit for their current financial situation.
CVD (Cumulative Volume Delta)
Cumulative Volume Delta
Use a moving average with three different
I thought about determining the volatility and direction of the price of the stock price and finding a place to break through.
I made some Mistake coz I'm new corder
I'm reposting this simple script due to house rule violation. (Whatever can haha) 😁
I'm erasing all the comments in my native language that I had in my script... I thought it would make the User uncomfortable, so I locked the code, and I thought maybe that's the problem
Anyway, I'm sorry 😅
[Kpt-Ahab] PnL-calculatorThe PnL-Cal shows how much you’re up or down in your own currency, based on the current exchange rate.
Let’s say your home currency is EUR.
On October 10, 2022, you bought 10 Tesla stocks at $219 apiece.
Back then, with an exchange rate of 0.9701, you spent €2,257.40.
If you sold the 10 Tesla shares on April 17, 2025 for $241.37 each, that’s around a 10% gain in USD.
But if you converted the USD back to EUR on the same day at an exchange rate of 1.1398, you’d actually end up with an overall loss of about 6.2%.
Right now, only a single entry point is supported.
If you bought shares on different days with different exchange rates, you’ll unfortunately have to enter an average for now.
For viewing on a phone, the table can be simplified.
Institutional MACD (Z-Score Edition) [VolumeVigilante]📈 Institutional MACD (Z-Score Edition) — Professional-Grade Momentum Signal
This is not your average MACD .
The Institutional MACD (Z-Score Edition) is a statistically enhanced momentum tool, purpose-built for serious traders and breakout hunters . By applying Z-Score normalization to the classic MACD structure, this indicator uncovers statistically significant momentum shifts , enabling cleaner reads on price extremes, trend continuation, and potential reversals.
💡 Why It Matters
The classic MACD is powerful — but raw momentum values can be noisy and relative , especially on volatile assets like BTC/USD . By transforming the MACD line, signal line, and histogram into Z-scores , we anchor these signals in statistical context . This makes the Institutional MACD:
✔️ Timeframe-agnostic and asset-normalized
✔️ Ideal for spotting true breakouts , not false flags
✔️ A reliable tool for detecting momentum divergence and exhaustion
🧪 Key Features
✅ Full Z-Score normalization (MACD, Signal, Histogram)
✅ Highlighted ±Z threshold bands for overbought/oversold zones
✅ Customizable histogram coloring for visual momentum shifts
✅ Built-in alerts for zero-crosses and Z-threshold breaks
✅ Clean overlay with optional display toggles
🔁 Strategy Tip: Mean Reversion Signals with Statistical Confidence
This indicator isn't just for spotting breakouts — it also shines as a mean reversion tool , thanks to its Z-Score normalization .
When the Z-Score histogram crosses beyond ±2, it marks a statistically significant deviation from the mean — often signaling that momentum is overstretched and the asset may be due for a pullback or reversal .
📌 How to use it:
Z > +2 → Price action is in overbought territory. Watch for exhaustion or short setups.
Z < -2 → Momentum is deeply oversold. Look for reversal confirmation or long opportunities.
These zones often precede snap-back moves , especially in range-bound or corrective markets .
🎯 Combine Z-Score extremes with:
Candlestick confirmation
Support/resistance zones
Volume or price divergence
Other mean reversion tools (e.g., RSI, Bollinger Bands)
Unlike the raw MACD, this version delivers statistical thresholds , not guesswork — helping traders make decisions rooted in probability, not emotion.
📢 Trade Smart. Trade Vigilantly.
Published by VolumeVigilante
Vietnamese Stocks: Multi-Ticker Fibonacci AlertThis Pine Script™ indicator is designed specifically for traders monitoring the Vietnamese stock market (HOSE, HNX). Its primary goal is to automate the tracking of Fibonacci retracement levels across a large list of stocks, alerting you when prices breach key support zones.
Core Functionality:
The script calculates Fibonacci retracement levels (23.6%, 38.2%, 50%, 61.8%, 78.6%) for up to 40 tickers simultaneously. The calculation is based on the highest high and lowest low identified since a user-defined Start Time. This allows you to anchor the Fibonacci analysis to a specific market event, trend start, or time period relevant to your strategy.
What it Does For You:
Automated Watchlist Scanning: Instead of drawing Fib levels on dozens of charts, select one of the two pre-configured watchlists (up to 40 symbols each, customizable in settings) populated with popular Vietnamese stocks.
Time-Based Fibonacci: Define a Start Time in the settings. The script uses this date to find the subsequent highest high and lowest low for each symbol in your chosen watchlist, forming the basis for the Fib calculation.
Intelligent Alerts: Get notified via TradingView's alerts when the candle closing price of any stock in your active watchlist falls below the critical 38.2%, 50%, 61.8%, or 78.6% levels relative to its own high/low range since the start time. Alerts are consolidated for efficiency.
Visual Aids:
- Plots the same time-based Fibonacci levels directly on your current chart symbol for quick reference.
- Includes an optional on-chart table showing which monitored stocks are currently below key Fib levels (enable "Show Debug Info").
- Features experimental background coloring to highlight potential bullish signals on the current chart.
Configuration:
Start Time: Crucial input – sets the anchor point for Fib calculations.
WatchList Selection: Choose between WatchList #1 (Bluechip/Midcap focus) or WatchList #2 (Defensive/Other focus) using the boolean toggles.
Symbol Customization: Easily replace the default symbols with your preferred Vietnamese stocks directly in the indicator settings.
Notification Prefix: Add custom text to the beginning of your alert messages.
Alert Setup: Remember to create an alert in TradingView, selecting this indicator and the alert() condition, usually with "Once Per Bar Close" frequency.
This tool is open-source under the MPL 2.0 license. Feel free to use, modify, and learn from it.
tafirstlibGeneral Purpose: Starts by stating it's a collection of utility functions for technical analysis.
Core Functionality Areas: Mentions key categories like:
Extrema detection (isMin, isMax, etc.)
Condition checking over time (isMachedInRange, isContinuous, etc.)
Rate of change analysis (isSlowDown)
Moving average calculation (getMA)
Advanced Features: Highlights the more complex functions:
Visualization helpers (getColorNew)
Moving Regression (mr) for smoothing/trend
Cycle analysis (bpDom)
Overall Goal: Concludes by stating the library's aim – simplifying development and enabling complex analysis.
Library "tafirstlib"
TODO: add library description here
isSlowDown(data)
isSlowDown
Parameters:
data (float) : array of numbers
Returns: boolean
isMin(data, maeLength)
isMin
Parameters:
data (float) : array of numbers
maeLength (int) : number
Returns: boolean
isMax(data, maeLength)
isMax
Parameters:
data (float) : array of numbers
maeLength (int) : number
Returns: boolean
isMinStopped(data, maeLength)
isMinStopped
Parameters:
data (float) : array of numbers
maeLength (int) : number
Returns: boolean
isMaxStopped(data, maeLength)
isMaxStopped
Parameters:
data (float) : array of numbers
maeLength (int) : number
Returns: boolean
isLongMinStopped(data, maeLength, distance)
isLongMinStopped
Parameters:
data (float) : array of numbers
maeLength (int) : number
distance (int) : number
Returns: boolean
isLongMaxStopped(data, maeLength, distance)
isLongMaxStopped
Parameters:
data (float) : array of numbers
maeLength (int) : number
distance (int) : number
Returns: boolean
isMachedInRangeSkipCurrent(data, findRange, findValue)
isMachedInRangeSkipCurrent
Parameters:
data (bool) : array of numbers
findRange (int) : number
findValue (bool) : number
Returns: boolean
isMachedInRange(data, findRange, findValue)
isMachedInRange
Parameters:
data (bool) : array of numbers
findRange (int) : number
findValue (bool) : number
Returns: boolean
isMachedColorInRange(data, findRange, findValue)
isMachedColorInRange isMachedColorInRange(series color data, int findRange, color findValue)
Parameters:
data (color) : series of color
findRange (int) : int
findValue (color) : color
Returns: boolean
countMachedInRange(data, findRange, findValue)
countMachedInRange
Parameters:
data (bool) : array of numbers
findRange (int) : number
findValue (bool) : number
Returns: number
getColor(data)
getColor
Parameters:
data (float) : array of numbers
Returns: color
getColorNew(data)
getColorNew
Parameters:
data (float) : array of numbers
Returns: color
isColorBetter(color_data)
isColorBetter
Parameters:
color_data (color) : array of colors
Returns: boolean
isColorWorst(color_data)
isColorWorst
Parameters:
color_data (color) : array of colors
Returns: boolean
isColorBetter2(color_data)
isColorBetter2
Parameters:
color_data (color) : array of colors
Returns: boolean
isColorWorst2(color_data)
isColorWorst2
Parameters:
color_data (color) : array of colors
Returns: boolean
isDecreased2Bar(data)
isDecreased2Bar
Parameters:
data (float) : array of numbers
Returns: boolean
isContinuousAdvance(targetSeries, range2Find, howManyException)
isContinuousAdvance
Parameters:
targetSeries (bool) : array of booleans
range2Find (int) : number
howManyException (int) : number
Returns: boolean
isContinuous(targetSeries, range2Find, truefalse)
isContinuous
Parameters:
targetSeries (bool) : array of booleans
range2Find (int) : number
truefalse (bool) : boolean
Returns: boolean
isContinuousNotNow(targetSeries, range2Find, truefalse)
isContinuousNotNow
Parameters:
targetSeries (bool) : array of booleans
range2Find (int) : number
truefalse (bool) : boolean
Returns: boolean
isContinuousTwoFactors(targetSeries, range2Find, truefalse)
isContinuousTwoFactors
Parameters:
targetSeries (bool) : array of booleans
range2Find (int) : number
truefalse (bool) : boolean
Returns: boolean
findEventInRange(startDataBarIndex, neededDataBarIndex, currentBarIndex)
findEventInRange
Parameters:
startDataBarIndex (int) : number
neededDataBarIndex (int) : number
currentBarIndex (int) : number
Returns: boolean
findMin(firstdata, secondata, thirddata, forthdata)
findMin
Parameters:
firstdata (float) : number
secondata (float) : number
thirddata (float) : number
forthdata (float) : number
Returns: number
findMax(firstdata, secondata, thirddata, forthdata)
findMax
Parameters:
firstdata (float) : number
secondata (float) : number
thirddata (float) : number
forthdata (float) : number
Returns: number
getMA(src, length, mav)
getMA
Parameters:
src (float) : number
length (simple int) : number
mav (string) : string
Returns: number
mr(mrb_src, mrb_window, mrb_degree)
Parameters:
mrb_src (float)
mrb_window (int)
mrb_degree (int)
bpDom(maeLength, bpw, mult)
Parameters:
maeLength (int)
bpw (float)
mult (float)
FunctionSurvivalEstimationLibrary "FunctionSurvivalEstimation"
The Survival Estimation function, also known as Kaplan-Meier estimation or product-limit method, is a statistical technique used to estimate the survival probability of an individual over time. It's commonly used in medical research and epidemiology to analyze the survival rates of patients with different treatments, diseases, or risk factors.
What does it do?
The Survival Estimation function takes into account censored observations (i.e., individuals who are still alive at a certain point) and calculates the probability that an individual will survive beyond a specific time period. It's particularly useful when dealing with right-censoring, where some subjects are lost to follow-up or have not experienced the event of interest by the end of the study.
Interpretation
The Survival Estimation function provides a plot of the estimated survival probability over time, which can be used to:
1. Compare survival rates between different groups (e.g., treatment arms)
2. Identify patterns in the data that may indicate differences in mortality or disease progression
3. Make predictions about future outcomes based on historical data
4. In a trading context it may be used to ascertain the survival ratios of trading under specific conditions.
Reference:
www.global-developments.org
"Beyond GDP" ~ www.aeaweb.org
en.wikipedia.org
www.kdnuggets.com
survival_probability(alive_at_age, initial_alive)
Kaplan-Meier Survival Estimator.
Parameters:
alive_at_age (int) : The number of subjects still alive at a age.
initial_alive (int) : The Total number of initial subjects.
Returns: The probability that a subject lives longer than a certain age.
utility(c, l)
Captures the utility value from consumption and leisure.
Parameters:
c (float) : Consumption.
l (float) : Leisure.
Returns: Utility value from consumption and leisure.
welfare_utility(age, b, u, s)
Calculate the welfare utility value based age, basic needs and social interaction.
Parameters:
age (int) : Age of the subject.
b (float) : Value representing basic needs (food, shelter..).
u (float) : Value representing overall well-being and happiness.
s (float) : Value representing social interaction and connection with others.
Returns: Welfare utility value.
expected_lifetime_welfare(beta, consumption, leisure, alive_data, expectation)
Calculates the expected lifetime welfare of an individual based on their consumption, leisure, and survival probability over time.
Parameters:
beta (float) : Discount factor.
consumption (array) : List of consumption values at each step of the subjects life.
leisure (array) : List of leisure values at each step of the subjects life.
alive_data (array) : List of subjects alive at each age, the first element is the total or initial number of subjects.
expectation (float) : Optional, `defaut=1.0`. Expectation or weight given to this calculation.
Returns: Expected lifetime welfare value.
Statistical Trailing Stop [LuxAlgo]The Statistical Trailing Stop tool offers traders a way to lock in profits in trending markets with four statistical levels based on the log-normal distribution of volatility.
The indicator also features a dashboard with statistics of all detected signals.
🔶 USAGE
The tool works out of the box, traders can adjust the data used with two parameters: data & distribution length.
By default, the tool takes volatility measures of groups of 10 candles, and statistical measures of the last 100 of these groups then traders can adjust the base level to use as trailing, the larger the level, the more resistant the tool will be to moves against the trend.
🔹 Base Levels
Traders can choose up to 4 different levels of trailing, all based on the statistical distribution of volatility.
As we can see in the chart above, each higher level is more resistant to market movements, so level 0 is the most reactive and level 3 the least.
It is up to the trader to determine the best level for each underlying, time frame and market conditions.
🔹 Dashboard
The tool provides a dashboard with the statistics of all trades, making it very easy to assess the performance of the parameters used for any given market.
As we can see on the chart, all Daily BTC signals with default parameters but different base levels, level 2 is the best performing of all four, giving a positive expectation of $2435 per trade, taking into account all long and short trades.
Of note are the long trades with a win rate of 76.47% and a risk-to-reward of 3.34, giving a positive expectation of $4839 per trade, with winners having an average duration of 210 days and losers 32 days.
This, compared to short trades with negative expectation, speaks to the uptrend bias of this particular market.
🔶 SETTINGS
Data Length: Select how many bars to use per data point
Distribution Length: Select how many data points the distribution will have
Base Level: Choose between 4 different trailing levels
🔹 Dashboard
Show Statistics: Enable/disable dashboard
Position: Select dashboard position
Size: Select dashboard size
Composite Scaled EMA LevelsComposite Scaled EMA Levels Indicator
This TradingView Pine Script indicator calculates a “composite EMA” that compares the closing price of the current asset with that of the XU100 index and scales the EMA values to the XU100 level. It then visualizes these computed levels as horizontal lines on the chart with corresponding labels.
Key Components:
Inputs and Data Retrieval:
Length Input: The user defines a parameter length (default is 10) which determines over how many bars the horizontal line is drawn.
Data Collection:
The daily closing price of the current symbol (current_close) is retrieved using request.security().
The daily closing price of the XU100 index (xu100) is also retrieved.
A ratio is computed as current_close / xu100. This ratio serves as the basis for calculating the composite EMAs.
EMA Calculations:
The indicator computes Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) on the ratio for specific periods.
In the provided version, the script calculates EMAs for three periods (34, 55, and 233), though you can easily expand this to other periods if needed.
Each computed EMA (for instance, EMA34, EMA55, EMA233) is then scaled by multiplying it with the XU100 index’s close, converting it to a price level that is meaningful on the chart.
Drawing Horizontal Lines:
Instead of using the standard plot() function, the script uses line.new() to draw horizontal lines representing the scaled EMA values over the last “length” bars.
Before drawing new lines, any existing lines and labels are deleted to ensure that only the most current values are shown.
Adding Labels to Lines:
The script creates a label for each EMA using label.new(), placing the label at the current bar (i.e., the rightmost position on the chart) using label.style_label_left so that the text appears to the right of the line.
The label displays the name of the composite EMA (e.g., "Composite EMA 34") along with its current scaled value.
Visualization:
The horizontal lines and labels provide a visual reference for the composite EMA levels. These lines help traders see critical support/resistance levels derived from the relationship between the current asset and the XU100 index.
Colors are assigned for clarity (for example, the EMA lines in this version use green).
Summary:
The Composite Scaled EMA Levels indicator is designed to help traders analyze the relationship between an asset’s price and the broader market index (XU100) by calculating a ratio and then applying EMAs on that ratio. By scaling these EMAs back to price levels and displaying them as horizontal lines with clear labels on the chart, the indicator offers a visual tool to assess trend direction and potential support or resistance levels. This can assist in making informed trading decisions based on composite trend analysis.
Average Body RangeThe Average Body Range (ABR) indicator calculates the average size of a candle's real body over a specified period. Unlike the traditional Average Daily Range (ADR), which measures the full range from high to low, the ABR focuses solely on the absolute difference between the open and close of each bar. This provides insight into market momentum and trading activity by reflecting how much price is actually moving from open to close , not just in total.
This indicator is especially useful for identifying:
Periods of strong directional movement (larger body sizes)
Low-volatility or indecisive markets (smaller body sizes)
Changes in trend conviction or momentum
Customization:
Length: Number of bars used to compute the average (default: 14)
Use ABR to enhance your understanding of price behavior and better time entries or exits based on market strength.
RTH and ETH RangesKey Functions :
Visualizes Regular Trading Hours (RTH) and Extended Trading Hours (ETH) price ranges
Tracks session highs, lows, and 50% levels where significant market reactions occur
Detects breakouts beyond previous session extremes
Trading Applications :
Exposes potential liquidity raids at session boundaries where smart money targets stop orders
Identifies critical price thresholds where institutional activity concentrates
Highlights divergences between RTH and ETH behavior that precede directional moves
Provides measurement of session volatility differences
Maps key price levels for objective entry and exit parameters
Reveals market dynamics at session transitions where institutional positioning changes
Dirty Market IndexThis indicator is designed to out an index displaying the level of dirtiness in market.
This level is defined by:
Sum of shadow lengths of last n candles (n is input and user can change it, it's 100 by default)
divided by
Sum of full candle bodies of last n candles (high - low)
This factor indicates how many percents of the market movement has been placed in shadows of candles, the higher this number, the dirtier market would be.
3 Candles Gap3 Candle Gap Indicator is made to detect these types of patterns:
1. 3 consecutive bullish or bearish candles
2. the middle candle true body (body excluding shadows) has a part that is not covered by previous and next candle shadows (gap)
This pattern helps traders to detect candles where price has moved in a direction and gap has formed (price is not covered by previous or next candles shadows), this is a signal showing price momentum where one side (bulls/bears) is so powerful at moving the price that the other side (bears/bulls) can't get price back to cover the gap.
This indicator has "repainting" by 1 candle which means, it uses the data from future to work, however this future data does not go further than 1 candle.
Leavitt Convolution ProbabilityTechnical Analysis of Markets with Leavitt Market Projections and Associated Convolution Probability
The aim of this study is to present an innovative approach to market analysis based on the research "Leavitt Market Projections." This technical tool combines one indicator and a probability function to enhance the accuracy and speed of market forecasts.
Key Features
Advanced Indicators : the script includes the Convolution line and a probability oscillator, designed to anticipate market changes. These indicators provide timely signals and offer a clear view of price dynamics.
Convolution Probability Function : The Convolution Probability (CP) is a key element of the script. A significant increase in this probability often precedes a market decline, while a decrease in probability can signal a bullish move. The Convolution Probability Function:
At each bar, i, the linear regression routine finds the two parameters for the straight line: y=mix+bi.
Standard deviations can be calculated from the sequence of slopes, {mi}, and intercepts, {bi}.
Each standard deviation has a corresponding probability.
Their adjusted product is the Convolution Probability, CP. The construction of the Convolution Probability is straightforward. The adjusted product is the probability of one times 1− the probability of the other.
Customizable Settings : Users can define oversold and overbought levels, as well as set an offset for the linear regression calculation. These options allow for tailoring the script to individual trading strategies and market conditions.
Statistical Analysis : Each analyzed bar generates regression parameters that allow for the calculation of standard deviations and associated probabilities, providing an in-depth view of market dynamics.
The results from applying this technical tool show increased accuracy and speed in market forecasts. The combination of Convolution indicator and the probability function enables the identification of turning points and the anticipation of market changes.
Additional information:
Leavitt, in his study, considers the SPY chart.
When the Convolution Probability (CP) is high, it indicates that the probability P1 (related to the slope) is high, and conversely, when CP is low, P1 is low and P2 is high.
For the calculation of probability, an approximate formula of the Cumulative Distribution Function (CDF) has been used, which is given by: CDF(x)=21(1+erf(σ2x−μ)) where μ is the mean and σ is the standard deviation.
For the calculation of probability, the formula used in this script is: 0.5 * (1 + (math.sign(zSlope) * math.sqrt(1 - math.exp(-0.5 * zSlope * zSlope))))
Conclusions
This study presents the approach to market analysis based on the research "Leavitt Market Projections." The script combines Convolution indicator and a Probability function to provide more precise trading signals. The results demonstrate greater accuracy and speed in market forecasts, making this technical tool a valuable asset for market participants.
Drawdown Visualizer v1.0Drawdown Visualizer
The Drawdown Visualizer tracks the percentage decline from all-time highs, providing valuable insights into market corrections and potential buying opportunities.
Key Features:
1) Real-Time Drawdown Tracking: The indicator continuously calculates and displays the current percentage drawdown from the all-time high price, color-coded from green (minimal drawdown) to red (severe drawdown) for instant visual feedback.
2) Maximum Drawdown Detection: Permanently tracks and displays the maximum historical drawdown encountered during the analyzed period, helping traders understand worst-case scenarios.
3) Statistical Analysis: Calculates and displays three important statistical measures:
* Average Drawdown: The mean value of all drawdowns recorded
* Median Drawdown: The middle value in the sorted list of all drawdowns, providing insight
into typical decline patterns
* Normal Drawdown Range: Visualizes the expected range of typical drawdowns based on
statistical standard deviation
Practical Applications:
1) Risk Management: Understand typical and extreme drawdowns to set appropriate stop-loss levels
2) Market Context: Gain perspective on whether current corrections are normal or exceptional
3) Entry Point Analysis: Identify potential buying opportunities when drawdowns reach statistical extremes