BITO LongAm planning to buy BITO calls (expiry June 30 12.0 ATM), the opening range of the quarter (january) looks bullish, we are then in discount almost (12.0) and the extension might be 25 and then 40 (targets). Planning to hold for a while the catalyst is the decrease in rates that is likely to make price to increase.
Just an idea do not risk more than your phycological capital allows you to risk.
BITO trade ideas
BITO Double Bottom / SharkBITO, the futures ETF for Bitcoin, is potentially putting in a double bottom here similar to how BTC is forming.
Whether you want to reference a wyckoff schematic, the Bullish Shark pattern with a type 2 in place, or the elliot wave structure on the corrective move from the peak, weve also got a few nice drives of Bullish divergence on the RSI as well as on the MACD here.
RSI is also moving above its average and above the 40 level
A common retracement here would be between 16 (382 fib) to 20$ at the 618 for a local target with a 618 retracement of the full ABC down, sitting at about 26$
This week will be important for all markets, as we could be getting a major move soon.
With the current macro picture in mind, its best to wait for confirmation, but in any case, keep your plan in mind and exercise risk management and proper position sizing.
BTC options strategy on BITO (Upside with a Downside Cushion)Have you seen the outlook for BTC?
• Rising Wedge with Bearish sentiment
• Fractal with Bullish prediction
• Bullish on the 2-hour chart
• Bearish on the 8-hour chart
It can be profitable or devastating to make directional trades. Come what may, we can use options on BITO to capture upside with a downside cushion to quell concerns of volatility. There is a way to build custom options strategies that provide upside with a downside cushion. This particular strat can make up to up to 13% (47% annualized), and only start to lose if BITO falls by more than 33% to below $8.82 as of 12/16/2022.
Buy 1 $13 call
Sell 1 $14 call
Sell 1 $9 put
Exp 12/16/22
Limit Price $0.20
Rolling (Margin): BITO Sept 12C/17P to Oct 11C/16P... for a .63 credit.
Comments: Rolling out with 28 days to go, but adjusting strikes slightly to delta neutral, since there wasn't a ton of difference in credit between rolling out "as is" versus delta balancing. Total credits collected of 5.01 on a 5 wide inverted. The setup is currently marking at 6.46 relative to my cost basis of 5.01, so it's underwater by 1.45 ($145). Moreover, the max the setup can make is 5.01 minus the width of the inversion (5.00) (i.e., $1), so I'm just looking to cut that loss a smidge before calling it a day if I can, with price ideally staying between the short option strikes throughout the life of the setup.
Resulting delta/theta of -8.42/2.18.
Bitcoin is about to breakout The pattern shown here is a bullish triangle on the hourly timeframe. While the breakout can theoretically be in any direction, the bias is towards the upside. The first target would be the ~18 level (>20% higher).
TAKEAWAY: This kind of move should come on some news headline so let's see what the media feeds us over the next 3-4 days :)
Rolled: BITO June 17th 18 Short Put to July 15th 17... for a .45 credit.
Comments: Too many trades, not enough time ... . Rolled this out on Friday for a .45 credit. Total credits collected: .48 (See Post Below) plus the .45 here for a total of .93. The original setup was a spread with the long leg at the 11. It has gone no bid, so I'm leaving it behind as a lotto trade.
$BITO Bullish DragonBullish divergence here on the 1.13 rejection giving us the second low that make up the "Feet".
The 1.13 rejection also gives us incite into possible retracement levels, as it could imply we will form the CD wave of the Bearish Shark next, giving us a .886 return.
The .382 would be your "Hump" and ultimately the door that takes you to the .886-1.13 extension
Trade Bitcoin Bounce with BITO - Lower Risk, Cheaper OptionsOn my BTCUSD weekly chart I had a support line drawn at 32,000, though there are wicks down to ~29,700. Shown here on 30min chart, price just crashed down to 31,000 and made a long hammer candle. Keep an eye on BITO, as RSI is under 15 and with price far from 20sma there should be a tradeable bounce soon. There may be a broad rally this week, crypto included, and if so then BITO calls (under 50cents, under $1.00) have a very nice reward/risk on a short term trade.
BITO (Bitcoin Asset) as an alternative diversification assetFundamental Analysis
Bitcoin is highly correlated with Equity assets in the near-term. The asset would decouple from this positive correlation the way Gold did when it switched from a speculative commodity into a safety asset. In the short-term, there will be high volatility, but in the long-term this asset could decouple from the Equity market once regulations are increased on it.
BITO etf has had a huge sell-off and could be a good hedge for a portfolio in the long-term, with a potential for a huge spike once regulations favour this commodity as a viable risk asset.
From a portfolio approach, it helps with diversification in the long-term when the asset starts to trade more uncorrelated with the equity markets and trades more like the derivatives market.
This is still not a well-established risk asset and should be treated like currencies in the short-term.
Technical Analysis
Bitcoin in the short-term is acting like an equity risk asset. Over the long-term, it should decouple and be a better risk instrument. However, it is still underpriced compared to gold and can be used as a risk hedge for a portfolio.
BTC Update: 9 MayBitcoin is experiencing a selloff and that is what we expected in our bearish scenario. In this video I explain an idea to capture the move with an Iron Condor. We are able to set it up because implied volatility is highest in an Elliott wave 3 of 3. This strategy will benefit from an immediate bounce with a volatility crush, or an exhaustion of the selloff in the target zone, or a collapse with a rebound that ends in the target zone upon expiration.
Opening: BITO June 17th 11/18 Short Put Vertical... for a .48/contract credit.
Comments: High IV with 30-day at 71%.
Unfortunately, I don't get any relief on margin for this particularly underlying, so am buying a cheap long put to bring in buying power effect from 17.46 for the naked 18 to 6.54 for the spread. Paying .07 for the long to bring buying power effect in by >60%.
ROC 7.3% at max as a function of buying power effect; 3.7% at 50% max.