IYR trade ideas
OPENING: IYR JAN 20TH 70/75/75/79 IRON FLY... for a 2.79 credit.
Here, I'm looking to add to core exchange-traded fund fly positions in underlyings whose implied volatility is high relative to where it's been over the preceding six months (>70th percentile) There aren't many out there at the moment, and this is one of them.
Notes: Unfortunately, I forgot to write down the metrics for this fella while I was placing the trade. I'll look to manage it at 25% max, as I do with all flies and short straddles.
OPENING: IYR DEC 23RD 68/75/75/80 IRON FLYI had intended to put on a similar setup last week, but got distracted by something else ... . Implied volatility rank remains high here, even though IYR's background implied volatility isn't that great.
Metrics:
Probability of Profit: 44%
Max Profit: $343/contract
Max Loss/Buying Power Effect: $357/contract
Break Evens: 71.57/78.43
Notes: The probability of profit metric on these always seems to suck hard (45-50%). The trade off between this and an iron condor (which has a higher probability of profit) is greater premium at the door, so a better max profit/loss ratio. This is basically a 1-1 setup; most iron condors I do are 1-2.
Look to manage at 25% max profit as you would a short straddle ... .
TRADE IDEA: IYR DEC 16TH 69/75/75/80 IRON FLYRotating into sector exchange traded funds ... . Although this instrument does not have very high background IV, its IV is on the high end of its 52-week and 6-month ranges.
Metrics:
Probability of Profit: 44%
Max Profit: $335/contract
Max Loss: $265/contract
Break Evens: 71.65/78.35
Notes: Will look to manage at 25% max profit, if I can get a fill here.
Very high probability trade on IYRIYR haved moved over 8% in the last 2 months. With an IV percentile of over 60% we can sell premium and get a higher probability trade. I will be using a combination of ratio spreads Selling the (2) 73 and (2) 78 Puts and buying (1) 75 put and (1) 81 put. This will give us the potential to win $330 per trade and giving us a break even of $72.84 with a 85% chance of profit. The price would have to move another 8% down for us to be in trouble.
IYR Real Estate etf patternLooks to be retesting a key level before possibly turning back up and continue it's larger bullish trend.
RSI at previous bounce level.
Watch for ADX to turn up
Deep Retracement to Weekly Channel LowHi All,
I have this ETF on my watch list for a potential long entry at 68.53 preferably. As you can see the technical aspect of the security is rather simple which is good. Price has run in a bullish channel since the 08'/09' sell-off. This buy point is just an initial prospect for entry, as price action moves forward entry can change.
I will update with targets and stop loss orders once price creeps nearer to entry. Cheers. =)
08.16.16 IYR SHORTMSZ has been hit, WPCP working, expecting price to move down to WDZ below
DEC 83 PUT $3.03
Update on US real estate: IYRIFFF I am seeing this right a break down here could lead to an extend major drop. Consider shorting if there is a close below 77.78 with a stop on a close >79.75 (Friday's high).
Real Estate (IYR) Rolling Over?The first part of this week I think will have a overall positive atmosphere for stocks so we could have a some bounche up but longer term I think there is a good chance we are entering into a bear phase for real estate.
IYR high volume move upAfter breaking the critical $778 level lat week, strength in the REITS sector has continued to move the underlying upwards towards the important $82 price point. the high volume over the last few days suggests further buying potential.
IYR Monthly DivergenceHoly crap this crash is going to be epic. IYR setting up for huge declines this year . Massive negative divergence and a short that im am just drooling over. Good luck everyone.
