AUD/CHF BEARS ARE STRONG HERE|SHORT
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AUD/CHF is making a bullish rebound on the 12H TF and is nearing the resistance line above while we are generally bearish biased on the pair due to our previous 1W candle analysis, thus making a trend-following short a good option for us with the target being the 0.517 level.
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AUDCHF: Bearish Continuation & Short Trade
AUDCHF
- Classic bearish setup
- Our team expects bearish continuation
SUGGESTED TRADE:
Swing Trade
Short AUDCHF
Entry Point - 0.5274
Stop Loss - 0.5285
Take Profit - 0.5255
Our Risk - 1%
Start protection of your profits from lower levels
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AUDCHF November 2025 fundamental analysisAustralian Dollar (AUD): Inflation Surprise Supports Hold
Reserve Bank of Australia Stance
The Australian Dollar received a powerful boost from the September quarter inflation data released on October 29, which delivered a significant upside surprise. Headline CPI accelerated to 1.3% quarter-on-quarter and 3.2% year-on-year, well above the RBA's 2-3% target midpoint. More importantly, the RBA's preferred trimmed mean measure climbed 1.0% quarterly (beating 0.8% expectations and the RBA's August forecast of 0.6%), pushing the annual rate to 3.0%—the first uptick since December 2022.
RBA Governor Michele Bullock had explicitly stated earlier in the week that a 0.9% quarterly rise in trimmed mean inflation would be viewed as a "material miss". At 1.0%, the threshold was decisively crossed. Bullock also described the labor market as "a little tight" despite unemployment rising to 4.5%, and emphasized the RBA's unwillingness to "leap at a single number".
Rate Cut Expectations Pushed Back
The inflation surprise has dramatically reshaped rate cut expectations. The November 4 meeting confirmed the decision to hold rates steady for the moment, and the first 25 basis point cut has been delayed from February 2026 to May 2026. This represents a stark shift from earlier expectations for near-term easing. The RBA cash rate remains at 3.60%, providing a substantial yield advantage over other major central banks.
November Outlook: Very Bullish
The Australian Dollar is the clear standout for November strength. AUD/USD surged to a three-week high of 0.6607 following the inflation data, and technical analysis suggests further upside potential toward 0.6706. The currency benefits from multiple tailwinds: delayed rate cuts relative to other central banks, particularly the Fed; buoyant risk sentiment following the preliminary US-China trade framework; and strong commodity prices, including copper near three-month highs. Against the weaker commodity currencies like CAD and NZD, the Australian Dollar is exceptionally well-positioned.
Swiss Franc (CHF): Safe Haven Supremacy Despite Zero Rates
Swiss National Bank Policy
The Swiss National Bank has maintained its policy rate at 0.00% and shows no inclination to move into negative territory despite franc strength. At its September meeting, the SNB notably refrained from describing the franc as "highly valued" or expressing concern over its appreciation—a significant shift in communication. This suggests the SNB has become more comfortable with franc strength, particularly as Switzerland's real exchange rate remains relatively stable due to low domestic inflation of just 0.2%.
Economic Environment
Switzerland's economy is projected to grow 1.5% in 2025 and 1.0% in 2026, with inflation expected to remain subdued at 0.2% in 2025 and 0.5% in 2026. The SNB characterized current policy settings as "appropriately expansionary" despite the 0% rate, and expressed confidence that inflation will remain within the 0-2% target range. Risks to the outlook are tilted to the downside, with weaker growth prospects potentially limiting any hawkish policy adjustments.
November Outlook: Bullish
The Swiss franc's safe-haven status provides strong support in November's uncertain environment. EUR/CHF has been trading around 0.92-0.93, and analysts expect the pair to gradually appreciate toward 0.96 over the next 12 months, implying modest franc weakness against the euro. However, against the dollar, the franc is expected to strengthen significantly, with USD/CHF forecasts suggesting 0.77 within a year, with downside risks toward 0.75 or even 0.73. The franc's outperformance has persisted despite substantial interest rate differentials, demonstrating the power of safe-haven flows in the current geopolitical environment.
Verdict
We are dealing with two currently very strong currencies here who are battling out a close head-to-head race. However, going into November AUD is expected to pull ahead given its clear interest rate advantage resulting in a BUY recommendation for AUD/CHF in November.
AUDCHF shortsPrice has approached a strong supply area with decreasing bullish momentum. I have two key points I am watching. The lower entry is more aggressive in case price decides not to push higher to the conservative entry. I may sit this one out as tomorrow is Friday. Which every way price goes, next week should present something great. Manage Risk. Best of Luck!
AUD CHF long:I feel the overall environment still warrants a 'risk on' trade (US/ CHINA, mega cap tech earnings).
I've chosen the CHF to short, I feel in this moment, the JPY is very extended following 'hawkish FOMC comments' from chair Powell and the BOJ hold with 'relatively dovish / neutral' press conference.
Arguably any of the currencies has been longable Vs the JPY, including the USD and CAD. And short JPY remains on my radar. But, for now, I've gone with AUD CHF, with a stop loss at the lower end of multiple 1hr swings.
The risk to the trade is negative sentiment, particularly if there is further push-back on FED rate cuts. Or perhaps if the EUR strengthens and the CHF follows. The fact I've not particularly been keen on trading the CHF due to its recent underlying strength is also a risk.
But if the mood remains positive, I think the chart 'should' return to recent highs.
AUDCHF: Important Breakout 🇦🇺🇨🇭
AUDCHF broke and closed above a significant daily resistance cluster.
The next historic resistance is 0.5287.
It will most likely be the next goal for the buyers.
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BUY AUD/CHF📈 Trade Recommendation: AUD/CHF
🟢 Action: Buy
Entry Point: 0.5790
Target: 0.6000
📊 Trade Details
Detail Value
Currency Pair AUD/CHF
Action Buy
Entry Point 0.5790
Target 0.6000
Stop-Loss Level 0.5730
📌 Trade Rationale
Technical Analysis:
Support level at 0.5790
Resistance level at 0.6000
Fundamental Analysis:
Positive economic indicators for AUD
Market sentiment favoring AUD over CHF
📈 Visual Chart
(Include a visual chart here showing the entry point, target, and stop-loss levels. For now, a placeholder text can be used if the chart is not available.)
Potntial bullish rise?AUD/CHF has reacted off the pivot and could rise to the 1st resistance which has been identified as a multi swing high resistance.
Pivot: 0.552229
1st Support: 0.51848
1st Resistance: 0.53094
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AUDCHF | 4H Supply Play – Return to Origin Before DropWe’re observing a corrective bullish leg pushing into a prior 4H supply zone around 0.5280 – 0.5307, aligning with the structure that caused the previous impulsive move down.
Price is retracing into the imbalance left behind by the prior sell-off — a textbook “return to origin” move. Liquidity above the equal highs is likely to get swept before price reacts from the unmitigated supply block.
Narrative:
The current leg is corrective, not impulsive.
We anticipate potential short setups once price taps into the 4H supply.
Confluence with higher-timeframe bearish order flow still intact.
Execution Plan:
Wait for lower-timeframe confirmation (M15–M5) after price taps into the green zone. If bearish structure confirms (BOS + retracement + continuation), short entries become valid.
AUDCHF: Short Signal Explained
AUDCHF
- Classic bearish formation
- Our team expects fall
SUGGESTED TRADE:
Swing Trade
Sell AUDCHF
Entry Level - 0.5223
Sl - 0.5229
Tp - 0.5212
Our Risk - 1%
Start protection of your profits from lower levels
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Potential bearish reversal?AUD/CHF has rejected off the resistance level, which is an overlap resistance that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and could drop from this level to our take rpofit.
Entry: 0.52164
Why we like it:
There is an overlap resistance that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss: 0.52489
Why we like it:
There is an overlap resistance that is slightly below the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement.
Take profit: 0.51816
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support.
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AUDCHF Buy ForecastAUDCHF New forecast👨💻👨💻
Note:
Follow proper risk management rules. Never risk more then 2% of your total capital. Money management is the key of success in this business...... Set your own SL & TP.
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AUDCHF CLOSING THE GAP|SHORT|
✅AUDCHF After engineering liquidity below the previous low, price is now retracing into the imbalance created during the impulsive move up. The market is likely to close the fair value gap and resume bearish order flow. Time Frame 4H.
SHORT🔥
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Is AUD/CHF Poised for a Bullish Breakout? Join the Surge!🚀 AUSSIE vs SWISS: AUD/CHF Wealth Heist Strategy (Swing/Day Trade) 🦘
🎯 Market: AUD/CHF (Forex)
💡 Strategy: Bullish Swing/Day Trade with Re-Accumulation Confirmation.
Buckle up, traders! It's time to pull off a slick market heist with the "Thief Strategy" on AUD/CHF. We're layering up entries like a mastermind stacking cash, aiming for a high-voltage profit zone while dodging traps. Let’s break it down with style and precision! 😎
📈 Trade Setup: The Thief’s Playbook
Bias: Bullish 🚀We’re spotting a re-accumulation pattern signaling the bulls are loading up for a breakout. AUD/CHF is primed for a move, and we’re ready to ride the wave!
Entry Strategy: Layered Buy Limit Orders (Thief Style) 🕵️♂️
Deploy multiple buy limit orders to stack the deck in your favor:
🎯 Buy Limit @ 0.52200
🎯 Buy Limit @ 0.52300
🎯 Buy Limit @ 0.52400
Pro Tip: Feel free to add more layers based on your risk appetite — scale up like a true market bandit!
Stop Loss: Thief’s Safety Net @ 0.52000 🛑
This is my suggested stop loss, but you’re the boss of your vault! Adjust based on your risk tolerance. Don’t let the market pickpocket your capital!
Take Profit: High-Voltage Resistance Zone @ 1.18700 ⚡A juicy resistance zone awaits, packed with overbought signals and a potential trap. Lock in profits here or adjust your exit to suit your style. Grab the loot and escape before the trap springs!
Note: This is a suggested target. You decide when to cash out — take profits at your own risk!
🔍 Why AUD/CHF? The Market Intel
Re-Accumulation Confirmation: The chart shows a textbook re-accumulation phase, with price consolidating before a bullish breakout. Volume and momentum are aligning for a push higher.
Market Dynamics: AUD (commodity-driven) vs. CHF (safe-haven) creates a tug-of-war. With risk-on sentiment rising, AUD could outmuscle CHF.
Trap Alert: Watch for a false breakout at the 1.18700 resistance zone. Overbought conditions may lure in early sellers — don’t get caught!
💵 Related Pairs to Watch
Keep an eye on these correlated pairs (priced in USD) to gauge market sentiment:
OANDA:AUDUSD : If the Aussie is pumping against the USD, it’s a good sign for AUD/CHF strength. Watch for bullish momentum here to confirm our bias.
OANDA:USDCHF : A weakening USD/CHF could amplify AUD/CHF’s upside as CHF loses ground. Check for bearish signals in USD/CHF to align with our trade.
OANDA:NZDCHF : Similar to AUD/CHF, NZD/CHF often moves in tandem due to AUD/NZD correlation. A bullish NZD/CHF could reinforce our setup.
Key Correlation Note: AUD and NZD often move together due to their commodity-driven economies. If AUD/USD and NZD/USD are rallying, it’s a green light for our AUD/CHF bullish bias. Conversely, a strong USD/CHF could cap our upside, so stay sharp!
🛠️ Thief Strategy Breakdown
Layering Entries: By stacking buy limit orders at 0.52200, 0.52300, and 0.52400, we’re averaging into the trade to catch the best entry zone. This minimizes risk if the market dips before blasting off.
Risk Management: The 0.52000 stop loss keeps our downside tight. Adjust your position size to keep risk below 1-2% of your account — don’t let the market rob you blind!
Profit Zone: The 1.18700 target is a high-probability resistance area. Use RSI or Stochastic indicators to confirm overbought conditions before exiting.
⚠️ Disclaimer
This is a Thief Style trading strategy crafted for fun and educational purposes. Trading involves risks, and you’re responsible for your own decisions. Always do your own research and manage your risk like a pro. No financial advice here — just a playful heist plan to spark your trading creativity!
✨ “If you find value in my analysis, a 👍 and 🚀 boost is much appreciated — it helps me share more setups with the community!”
#Hashtags: #AUDCHF #ForexTrading #SwingTrading #DayTrading #ThiefStrategy #Bullish #TechnicalAnalysis
AUDCHFAUDCHF price is in a correction phase. If the price can hold above 0.50914, it is expected that the price will rebound. Consider buying in the red zone.
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🔥Trading futures, forex, CFDs and stocks carries a risk of loss.
Please consider carefully whether such trading is suitable for you.
>>GooD Luck 😊
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AUD/CHF SENDS CLEAR BEARISH SIGNALS|SHORT
AUD/CHF SIGNAL
Trade Direction: short
Entry Level: 0.519
Target Level: 0.514
Stop Loss: 0.522
RISK PROFILE
Risk level: medium
Suggested risk: 1%
Timeframe: 6h
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
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