Bearish Look for potential Reversal bearish candlestick formation upon the retest of daily supply zone
GER30 trade ideas
DAX Correction Ahead! Sell!
Hello,Traders!
DAX is trading in a strong
Uptrend but the index is
Locally overbought so after
The retest we will be expecting
A local pullback and a
Bearish correction
Sell!
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GRMAN 40 (DAX) BEARS ON THE HORIZONThe 10 year German Bond yieds have been falling since March from 2.95% to current levels just above 2.4%. The falling yields are mainly due to the ECB intrest rate cuts, which lowered its benchmark rate by a quarter percentage point to 2.25% on April 17 for the seventh time. Bond yields fall when interest rates fall; they have to, since bonds reflect the cost of borrowing money. They also fall when there is flight to safety from the stock market to the bond market when investors are looking for moderate returns. Falling yields in the 10 year German note shows that investors are buying bonds for moderate returns and selling the German stocks.
Technically, yesterday the DAX daily candle closed as a long legged doji which shows there's indecision at this level. Further price action at this zone should confirm weakness at this level, probably a shooting star with high volume.
DAX at a Crossroads: Will Resistance Trigger a Pullback?The German 40 (DAX) has been on a strong bullish run, now trading into a key resistance zone near previous range highs. This area is likely packed with liquidity (buy stops), making it a potential turning point. Given the overextended price action and current fundamentals, a retracement is likely as profit-taking and stop orders trigger. While sentiment has been bullish, caution is warranted at these levels. I am expecting a pullback before any further upside. Not financial advice.
DAX: Bears Are Winning! Short!
My dear friends,
Today we will analyse DAX together☺️
The price is near a wide key level
and the pair is approaching a significant decision level of 22,904.4 Therefore, a strong bearish reaction here could determine the next move down.We will watch for a confirmation candle, and then target the next key level of 22,755.9..Recommend Stop-loss is beyond the current level.
❤️Sending you lots of Love and Hugs❤️
DAX CAUTION!"From Errrections Come Corrections." Unlike the Eiffel Tower pattern, this setup is less severe. It’s more likely to resolve through time and price consolidation than a complete reversal.
DAX H4 | Potential bullish bounceThe DAX (GER30) JPY is falling towards an overlap support and could potentially bounce off this level to climb higher.
Buy entry is at 22,574.39 which is an overlap support.
Stop loss is at 21,780.00 which is a level that lies underneath an overlap support and the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement.
Take profit is at 23,447.57 which is a multi-swing-high resistance.
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DAX H4 | Falling toward an overlap supportThe DAX (GER30) is falling towards an overlap support and could potentially bounce off this level to climb higher.
Buy entry is at 22,794.30 which is an overlap support.
Stop loss is at 22,200.00 which is a level that lies underneath a swing-low support.
Take profit is at 23,447.57 which is a multi-swing-high resistance.
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Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you.
Stratos Markets Limited (tradu.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Europe Ltd (tradu.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
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Losses can exceed deposits.
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DAX: forming the 1st Golden Cross since December!DAX has just turned bullish again on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 58.773, MACD = 85.200, ADX = 45.497) and tonight will form the first 4H Golden Cross in 5 months (since December 2nd 2024). This comes to compliment a 1D MACD Bullish Cross that was formed last week. The pattern is identical to the November - December rise and as you see both rebounds took palce on the S1 level. We are long, expecting the R1 level to be tested (TP = 23,480).
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DAX40 INTRADAY corrective pullback supported at 22226The DAX40 continues to exhibit bullish sentiment, aligning with the prevailing short term uptrend. Recent price action suggests that the index experienced an oversold rally, which subsequently spiked above near a key resistance zone — the previous intraday consolidation level around 22,226.
This area now serves as a critical pivot point. A corrective pullback to 22,226, followed by renewed buying pressure, would likely confirm a bullish reversal, with upside targets at:
22,804 – Near-term resistance
23,252 – Medium-term resistance
23,475 – Long-term resistance level
However, if price breaks and closes firmly below 22,226 on a daily basis, the bullish scenario would be invalidated. In that case, the DAX40 could extend corrective pullback toward:
21,900 – Immediate support
20,457 – Major downside target
Conclusion
The bias remains bullish above 22,226, with rallies from that level offering potential long opportunities. A daily close below 22,226, however, would shift sentiment and open the door for bearish continuation toward lower support levels.
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Massive GER30 Short 1. This trade is at an all-time high and has made a double top on weekly with massive divergence
2. H4 is overbought and has a double top with divergence as well
3. This will indicate a fall until H4 is oversold to compensate for the sharp movement up
4. Stop loss of 250 pips
5. There is a Deep Crab pattern on M15
GER40What is GER40?
GER40, commonly known as the DAX 40, is Germany’s premier stock market index that tracks the performance of the 40 largest and most liquid German blue-chip companies listed primarily on the Frankfurt Stock Exchange. It reflects the overall health of the German economy and is a key benchmark for European equity markets.
The DAX 40 is a market-capitalization-weighted index using a free-float methodology, meaning it only considers shares available for public trading.
It is a total return index, which means dividends paid by constituent companies are reinvested in the index calculation.
The index replaced the previous DAX 30 in September 2021 by expanding the number of constituents from 30 to 40 companies.
Does Bond Yield Affect GER40?
Yes, bond yields do affect the GER40 price movements, as they influence the cost of capital, investor risk appetite, and economic outlook:
Rising German government bond yields typically increase borrowing costs for companies, which can weigh on corporate profits and stock valuations, potentially pressuring the DAX 40 lower.
Higher yields may also make fixed income more attractive relative to equities, causing capital to flow out of stocks into bonds.
Conversely, falling bond yields lower borrowing costs and often signal economic uncertainty, which can support or sometimes depress stocks depending on the context.
The DAX 40’s sensitivity to bond yields is also influenced by broader European Central Bank (ECB) monetary policy and global risk sentiment.
Additionally, the US Treasury yields and US Dollar strength indirectly impact the GER40 by affecting global capital flows and export competitiveness of German multinational companies.
Companies That Make Up GER40 (Selected Major Constituents)
The DAX 40 consists of 39 companies (due to share classes) across various sectors. Here are some key members with their sectors and approximate market caps:
Company Ticker Sector Market Cap (Approx.)
Adidas AG ADS Personal Goods €36.5 billion
Airbus SE AIR Aerospace & Defence €122.8 billion
Allianz SE ALV Life Insurance €141.1 billion
BASF SE BAS Chemicals €40.2 billion
Bayer AG BAYN Pharmaceuticals & Biotechnology €22.6 billion
BMW AG BMW Automobiles & Parts €44.7 billion
Deutsche Bank AG DBK Banks €45.0 billion
Deutsche Telekom AG DTE Telecommunications €157.0 billion
Infineon Technologies AG IFX Technology Hardware & Equipment €37.8 billion
Mercedes-Benz Group AG MBG Automobiles & Parts €50.8 billion
Siemens AG SIE Industrial Conglomerate (Included in DAX)
SAP SE SAP Software & IT Services (Included in DAX)
Volkswagen AG VOW3 Automobiles & Parts (Included in DAX)
Deutsche Post AG DHL Commercial Transportation €45.4 billion
Munich Re (Muenchener Rueck) MUV2 Reinsurance €80.5 billion
(There are 39 stocks tracked due to share classes; full list includes companies from chemicals, healthcare, insurance, technology, automotive, and industrial sectors.)
Summary
What is GER40? Germany’s main blue-chip index tracking 40 largest companies on Frankfurt Stock Exchange
Bond Yield Impact Rising yields can pressure stocks via higher borrowing costs; falling yields can support stocks depending on context
Key Companies Adidas, Airbus, Allianz, BASF, Bayer, BMW, Deutsche Bank, Deutsche Telekom, Infineon, Mercedes-Benz, Siemens, SAP, Volkswagen, Munich Re, Deutsche Post, etc.
The GER40 is heavily influenced by Germany’s economic conditions, ECB policy, global trade dynamics, and bond market movements. Rising bond yields generally create headwinds for the index, while falling yields and accommodative monetary policy tend to support it.
From Euphoria to Exhaustion: DAX 8H Short LoadedAfter an impressive rally, DAX has now returned to its previous highs. But this upward move looks more like an engineered push rather than a healthy breakout. From a technical and sentiment-based perspective, it feels overextended. That’s why I initiated a short position from this level. No need to predict the top—just follow the setup and manage risk.
Technicals:
• Price has returned to previous highs after a sharp V-shaped recovery.
• The rally lacks structure—no clear consolidation or volume support.
• We’re also near a historical EQ level that has acted as a turning point before.
Fundamentals:
• Philips cut its 2025 profit margin forecast citing U.S. tariffs as a major drag—this isn’t an isolated signal.
• Hugo Boss and other exporters confirmed revenue weakness due to U.S. trade tensions, adding to the bearish bias for European equities.
• President Trump’s warning about additional tariffs on pharmaceuticals could severely affect key European sectors.
• Global trade uncertainty and tariff retaliation fears have returned. These external shocks are significant for export-heavy indices like the DAX.
• With the Fed’s policy decision pending and no concrete trade deals, markets are shaky. Sentiment remains fragile.
This isn’t just a chart move — it’s a narrative setup. Markets can push higher on euphoria, but engineered rallies without backing tend to snap. I don’t need to catch the top perfectly — just be in when reality bites back.
Note: Please remember to adjust this trade idea according to your individual trading conditions, including position size, broker-specific price variations, and any relevant external factors. Every trader’s situation is unique, so it’s crucial to tailor your approach to your own risk tolerance and market environment.
Bullish momentum to extend?DAX40 (DE40) is falling towards the pivot and could bounce to the 1st resistance which is a pullback resistance.
Pivot: 22,083.20
1st Support: 21,516.36
1st Resistance: 23,434.50
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Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Bearish correctionDax is falling after reaching its upper bound, but has failed to move above it. The rejection of price from the all-time high zone may yield a correction towards the midpoint of the previous bullish trend. However, if price action regains upward momentum, the indice may stall the bearish correction and try to pursue the bullish continuation.
GER40 BUYGiven the resistance levels and the hidden divergence, it returned to the previous support level.
Dax Trend Analysis for Today dated 08 May 2025As of May 8, 2025, the DAX 40 index is exhibiting a bullish trend, trading around 23,355.00 EUR, marking a 1.03% increase for the day .
Technical Analysis:
Moving Averages: The index is trading above its 20-day, 50-day, and 200-day moving averages, indicating strong upward momentum.
Relative Strength Index (RSI): The RSI stands at 48.69, suggesting neutral momentum without overbought or oversold conditions.
Average Directional Index (ADX): A high ADX value of 91.42 points to a strong prevailing trend.
Support and Resistance Levels: Key support is identified at 23,000 EUR, with resistance around 23,500 EUR.
Market Sentiment:
The combination of strong technical indicators and positive price action suggests a continuation of the bullish trend in the near term.
Strategic Outlook:
Given the current technical setup, the DAX 40 index appears poised for further gains, potentially testing the resistance level at 23,500 EUR. However, investors should remain vigilant for any macroeconomic developments or geopolitical events that could impact market dynamics.
Sources
Germany 40 – Focus on the All Time HighsThe Germany 40 index has been on a wild ride in the first 4+ months of 2025 as European equity markets have reaped the benefits of a shift out of US assets, an expected major spending up lift by European governments on defence and more importantly for the Germany 40 specifically, a commitment by the country’s lawmakers to lift the debt break, which is expected to unleash billions of EUROs of spending on infrastructure projects moving forward.
This all saw the Germany 40 index climb from 19,753 on January 2nd to a new all time high of 23479 on March 18th. However, its not all been plain sailing, as US President Trump’s introduction of trade tariffs on global allies saw a capitulation of these initial longs all the way down to 18800 on April 7th, although this weakness didn’t last long as a month later, more specifically on Tuesday May 6th the index returned to its all time highs again. Wow!
Now, with the index pausing just below this important peak, it seems like a good time to consider the technical outlook.
Technical Outlook: Break or Fail at All Time Highs
An all-time high in any asset is an important resistance focus for traders, as having seen it previously hold and reverse an advance in price, the potential is that it may do so again.
Therefore, as a previous all-time price is neared, the question will always be asked, will it hold and see fresh selling pressure once more, or will it give way on a closing basis, to suggest possibilities of a more sustained period of price strength.
The Germany 40 index currently finds itself in such a situation, and activity over coming sessions may offer clues to its next direction.
On March 18th 2025, the Germany 40 index traded to a level of 23479, which represented a new all-time market high. Significantly, from here, a fall of 19.90% materialised into the April 7th low.
Interestingly, having posted this 18800 April 7th session low, a near 100% upside retracement of the early April decline has developed, with Tuesday’s high this week at 23430. The question traders may now be asking is, can new all-time highs be posted to suggest extension of recent strength, or will it hold again and see fresh price weakness?
Of course, it is an impossible question to answer, as much will depend on future market sentiment and price trends. However, it should be remembered, even if closing breaks of previous all-time highs do develop, it may still not guarantee further strength.
That said, if closes above the 23479 March 18th 2025 extreme do materialise, it may skew possibilities to higher levels. However, it is always difficult to gauge where the next higher resistance points stand in all-time high territory, but it might prove to be the 38% Fibonacci extension of the March/April price decline, which stands at 25232, that could be the next resistance focus.
It is equally possible, as it is an important resistance that 23578 holds and reverses the latest strength again, in which case, we must be aware of possible supports that if broken, may see increasing downside pressure in the index.
The first support, may now be 22860, which was Tuesday’s session low, as this held and prompted a rally in price. This level giving way, while not an outright negative, might then see a deeper decline emerge towards 22237, equal to the April 30th low, even possibly the rising Bollinger mid-average, which currently stands at 21914.
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DAX Intra-day Analysis – 08 May 2025Market participants are closely monitoring the escalating geopolitical tensions between India and Pakistan, as well as ongoing global trade discussions—particularly between the U.S. and China. These factors may influence sentiment and market volatility throughout the session.
Possible intra-day price behavior to consider:
• If the index approaches the 23,600 level but fails to sustain above it—especially if accompanied by technical signs of slowing momentum—some traders may interpret this as a scenario where the index could revisit the 23,100 zone.
• A sustained move below the 23,000 level could potentially open the way for further downside exploration toward the 22,400 area, which has previously acted as a zone of interest.
• In the event the index approaches 22,400 and shows signs of holding above it, a short-term bounce toward 23,100 could be observed. Alternatively, if downward pressure persists and the 22,400 level does not hold, attention may shift toward the 21,900 area as the next significant support.
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DAX: Target Is Down! Short!
My dear friends,
Today we will analyse DAX together☺️
The market is at an inflection zone and price has now reached an area around 22,461.17 where previous reversals or breakouts have occurred.And a price reaction that we are seeing on multiple timeframes here could signal the next move down so we can enter on confirmation, and target the next key level of 22,275.67..Stop-loss is recommended beyond the inflection zone.
❤️Sending you lots of Love and Hugs❤️
Is this the NEXT big leg up for DAX? It seems like there is stabilisation around in Europe with the markets.
While America is making a mess with its peace with many countries (including Canada).
We are seeing the EURO fly which means there is a safe haven among the CAC, DAX, IBEX and EURSTOXXX...
The charts are looking great for upside, and we might have some optimism around Europe in the next month.
Here are the technicals.
W Formation
Price>20 and 200
Target 25,113
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
GER40 TECHNICAL ANALYSISThe GER40 has been on a strong bullish run, but is now stalling just below the 22,444 🔼 resistance zone. Price is showing early signs of hesitation, suggesting potential for either a breakout continuation or a deeper pullback.
Support at: 21,973 🔽, 21,570 🔽, 20,900 🔽
Resistance at: 22,444 🔼, 22,800 🔼, 23,400 🔼
Bias:
🔼 Bullish: A clean breakout and retest above 22,444 could fuel a move toward the next major resistance at 22,800. As long as price holds above 21,973, the bullish structure remains intact.
🔽 Bearish: A failure to break above 22,444 combined with a break below 21,973 could trigger a pullback toward the 21,570 support zone.
📛 Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Trade at your own risk.
DAX 40 starts to show neutrality around the 22,000 levelThe German index has posted steady gains, rising nearly 7% over the last four trading sessions, mainly driven by the low interest rates maintained by the ECB at 2.25%, as well as the easing of potential trade war tensions, which has allowed the index’s bullish bias to remain strong in recent weeks. However, buying candles have been gradually diminishing over the last sessions, and it is likely that a selling candle may appear in today’s session, reinforcing short-term neutrality as the index trades above the 22,000 level.
Accelerated Trend: Since April 9, the DAX has shown significant upward movements, resulting in a fairly steep bullish slope and giving way to an accelerated uptrend. If the DAX fails to hold the recent weeks’ highs in the short term, this accelerated price movement could lead to corrective pullbacks. However, the dominant bias in the longer term remains bullish.
ADX: The ADX line has begun to decline and is now facing the neutral area marked around the 20 level. Frequent oscillations around this level indicate that volatility has decreased and could lead to sustained price neutrality in the short term.
MACD: The MACD histogram remains above the indicator’s 0 level but has shown a steady deceleration, which may signal a lack of momentum in the average movement of the moving averages. As the MACD histogram continues to narrow, it could pave the way for slight bearish momentum in the DAX’s daily chart over the short term.
Key levels to watch:
22,000 points: A nearby support area coinciding with an important psychological level, which could act as a significant barrier against potential short-term price pullbacks.
21,400 points: A distant support area aligning with the 100-period simple moving average. Bearish movements reaching this level could threaten the bullish formation currently seen on the chart.
23,000 points: A definitive resistance level coinciding with the area marked by the DAX’s all-time highs. Buying movements returning to this level could trigger a consistent bullish bias and a much more relevant uptrend in the short term.
Written by Julian Pineda, CFA – Market Analyst
