Using Fib extensions to project 4 year BTC bull highsI have been using Trend Based Fib extensions in Trading View for many years. It is one of the tools you can use in Trading View for free.
In June 2011 Bitcoin hit its first major high at $31.90. Its bear market low was $2.01 in Nov 2011. Use the Trend Based Fib extension tool; first point is $31.90 in Apr 2011 and the second point is the $2.01 low in Nov 2011; Bitcoin hit the 4.236 Fib extension in Apr 2013 at $268.
In July 2013 Bitcoin hit its low at $65. First point is $268 in Apr 2013; the second point is $65 in July 2013. Bitcoin hit the 4.236 Fib extension in Nov 2013 when it hit the $1177 bull market high in Nov 2013.
In Jan 2015 Bitcoin hit its bear market low at $164. First point is $1177 in Nov 2013; second point is $164 in Jan 2015. Bitcoin hit the 4.236 Fib extension in Oct 2017. If you had DCA'd from then until Dec 2017, then you would have gotten out between $10000 to $15000 which is still very good.
In Dec 2018 Bitcoin hit its bear market low at $3129. First point is $19764 high in Dec 2017; second point is $3129 in Dec 2018. Bitcoin hit the 3.618 Fib extension in April 2021 and again in Nov 2021. If you had DCA'd out in those two months you would have gotten out at very good times.
In Nov 2022 Bitcoin hit its bear market low at $15460. First point is $69000 high in Nov 2021; second point is the $15460 low in Nov 2022. Bitcoin in Oct 2025 (another 35 month bull market from the Nov 2022 low) has a 2.618 Fib extension at $156,000 and a 3.618 Fib extension at $209,000. I feel reasonably confident that Bitcoin will hit within that range of prices by Oct 2025.
After another 12 month bear to say $40000 by Oct 2026 and another 35 month bull market, the 2.618 and 3.618 Fib extensions yield a Bitcoin price between $500,000 to $600,000 by Sep 2029.
After another 12 month bear market to say $130,000 and another 35 month bull market, the 2.618 and 3.818 Fib extensions yield a Bitcoin price between $1.3 M to $1.8M by Aug 2033.
BLX trade ideas
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This chart is inspired by @Michael_Wang_Official
BTC dump short term full bull mid termHistory always repeats.
BTC will look for a double bottom (at 333MA in the weekly TF) and then, after 4th halving will go all the way to 195 k usd.
Why 195k?
I apply both fibonacci extensions and fibonacci circles from its cycle ATH to its double bottom.
The extensions that match will be the next target.
Refer to the chart for more information.
4yr cyclic lines suggest bitcoin capitulation and new bull run!every 4 years bitcoin capitulates after the clocks return from BST to GMT/UTC in the UK (end of October).
price also has 100mma around the previous ATH.
Cyclic bars suggest history is about to repeat...
Fibo circle suggests we may see some sideways action into 2023 before the next ATH bull run, or price pops $50-60k region for a more corrective scenario (we will see)...
Bitcoins next 6 months outlookBitcoin is still clearly in the bear market and won't make it's initial big push out for 6 months most likely. This should be good news to you if you are stacker. The bears have a strong hold over price action, but as we can see on the RSI, the hold is weakening with bullish divergence forming in this underling indicator that simply determines "relative strength". If bitcoin maintains this divergence you can expect a very quick price pop up by the end of the month (seems likely) . The down trend resistance levels are color and thickness coded by strength. Each time any one is conquered, meaning a break above and stay above, our attention is then focused on the next one until all are broken and defeated.
Stronger to weaker
RED
ORANGE
GREEN
BLUE
Thanks for looking at my chart and leave a comment on what you think. My chart is educational analysis and is not to be taken as financial advice. We are all here to make money and limit our risk is the best way to do so. Contrary to the news, from what the chart is showing us... it's telling us that risk is low, the RSI has bottomed and showing signs of strength.
* Bear markets are buyers markets, Bull markets are sellers markets*
PS: The arrows are only examples
Once again... thanks,
WeAreSat0shi
Stay Blessed!
Bitcoin - BTC comparing Alligator cross-over 1.🔴 2.⚪️ 3.🔵 4.🟢Comparing Alligator cross-over...
1.🔴
2.⚪️
3.🔵
4.🟢...
...dear BTC and Crypto Nation👀
Will call out loud for you when next 3.🔵 occurs🚨🚨
Let me know your thoughts in the comments🤗
⬇️⬇️⬇️
Likes and Follow for updates appreciated🤗
Disclaimer:
Not financial advice
Do your own research before investing
The content shared is for educational purposes only and is my personal opinion
Finding cycle tops by drawing diagonals from bear market lowsIn a log chart of BTC, by drawing diagonals from bear market lows we can find where market will top at the end of a cycle. Yellow highlighted bottom goes on to form yellow highlighted top (ray1), green highlighted bottom goes on to form the green highlighted top (ray2)
It is not possible to know where current cycle will top at before the bear market ends with this method but it'll be possible once we are well into the next bull market. Draw a diagonal from bear market lows and wait for price to hit your diagonal from below. This is not enough to open a net short position as 2021 top shows (since it double topped) but enough to exit your long position
Kaspa Bitcoin Theory for future pricing into 2025-30I know this is a stretch of the imagination but I just could not help myself given all the research information we now have on the emission schedule for the Kaspa network and how we are somewhat tied with this Nakamoto Consensus with Bitcoin. These are two different projects but both are from the same idealogy and theoretical background of Bitcoin and the original theory on peer to peer payment system. We have a 4 year halving cycle with Bitcoin and a yearly halving cycle with Kaspa. Both permissionless both Decentralized but only one solves the Trilemma issue and that is Kaspa. Given that Kaspa has solve the Trilemma issue makes it both Decentralized and Secure and now fully Scalable something that Bitcoin does not offer. I think there is something bigger here than we can all understand and appreciate. any correlation? dont know but in time we will see if there is something bigger at play here.
This is the Bottom $btc Bitcoin Fibonacci levels from historic lows, to significant tops. Note that at the .786 level, and anything lower, (note as well the potential 30% drawdown lasting up to 2 months that can occur at significant cycle bottoms) has historically been the bottom for the cycle. We might front run the bottom though and fill up before we reach say $10,000 or lower. The 2018 bear market bottom showed no journey into sub .786 levels, which again would almost certainly be the most optimal long entry point (low end of .786 and anything sub.) Further, THE MOST SIGNIFICANT RISK to take in end of the year 2022, would be an under exposure to the brave new asset, or stocks in general as the fed is forced into dovish expression.
the fed has a money printer
Bitcoin next cycle Top and bottom .Today i want to share the btc logarithmic chart with the help of supertrend . As you can see i drew a bottom area in two green parallel line with a curved top in red wich both are approximate not precise.
Based on two previous events and supertrend there’s some similarities which i would like to mention.
From the cycle bottom to settling down the supertrend or the next cycle bottom it takes 1300-1400 days .
From the bottom to the tip of the cycle it takes 900 to 1000 days .
Base on these events and some other formulas i would say we will see the cycle top in 2025 somewhere close to july and for the other year close to September we will see the next cycles bottom wich is around 60-70 k .
Again its not a finance advice and crypto market could be very chaotic so stay safe fam .
BTC is a possible outcome!!!Why do I think so?
According to one version, the growth ended at 68944.62 with the
fifth wave according to Elliott's theory, from the entire movement of Bitcoin since 2010!
The price is lowered to the level of 15495.37, which may be the first wave
Adjusted by 31799.86 (second wave)
And it can give a third wave to the new Global zone 7577.63-3629.76
By making the current Global Zone a zone of Control at the highest TF
According to the second version, the fifth wave ended in December 2017 and was corrected in three waves into a triangle!
Then
From the current control zone we can go to the level of 48191.03
Or give a correction deeper at 22140.02 and from there it will go to the level of 48191.03
And then HIGHER!!!
I will attach a global screen!!!
Bitcoin’s MOST IMPORTANT PATTERN for Trading in 2023-2024Key Findings
- The best time to buy Bitcoin has historically been prior to the Bitcoin halving.
- There has been a Bitcoin bottom and a second chance buy opportunity in each Bitcoin cycle.
- In the 2016 Bitcoin cycle, Bitcoin received widespread global adoption that led to the first bear market rally, market manipulation by the US Federal Reserve, and the development of a time cycle.
Since price is so heavily manipulated, investors turn to the second best variable that they have to work with, which is time. We start to notice an interesting time cycle:
(1) 74+ week bull run
- In 2016 there was a 74-week bull run where the parabolic curve broke 74 weeks after the BTC halving date.
- In 2020, the Federal Reserve was heavily manipulating the markets by turning on their money printers.
- 50% of the global US dollar supply was printed since the COVID crash and BTC’s parabolic curve broke 45 weeks in.
- However, smart investors know that the past bull run lasted 74 weeks and so much more US dollars are in circulation so the bull run shouldn’t run out of steam yet.
- As a result, BTC formed a double peak for the first time with so much money being printed and heavily manipulating the markets upward.
- This rally lasted 78 weeks with an attempted selloff at week 75 and 3 weeks of bullishness afterwards (forming a bull trap for those who believed in the Bitcoin to $100k narrative).
- It is important to point out that this 2020 cycle bull run lasted just a few weeks longer than the previous 74-week cycle with an attempt to selloff just 1 week after the previous 74-week bull run cycle.
The US federal government also manipulated Bitcoin’s price on the way down through contractionary fiscal policies.
(2) 51-week market correction
- In 2016 and 2020, there was a 51-week correction from the peak of the Bitcoin bull run rally to the Bitcoin bottom in the bear market.
(3) 9 weeks of bottoming out near the Bitcoin bottom
- In 2016 and 2020, Bitcoin took exactly 9 weeks to bottom out near the Bitcoin bottom before taking off during the bear market rally.
(4) 36-week bear market rally
- In 2016, Bitcoin had its first Bitcoin bear market rally that lasted exactly 36 weeks before Bitcoin started declining.
- In the current 2020 cycle Bitcoin had a 36-week bear market rally that just ended on the week of July 17, 2023.
- Near the end of both bear market rallies there were several weeks of sideways price movement near the resistance level before Bitcoin finally dropped.
What is next?
(5) Sideways and slightly bearish price action in the accumulation range
- In the Bitcoin webinar, published in July of 2023, I gave my prediction that Bitcoin will move sideways with slightly bearish price action within the accumulation range between $22k and $31.8k.
- This prediction has been accurate so far with sideways and slightly bearish price action.
- I see two potential trade opportunities on the horizon with a BTC long opportunity around $22-23k if there is excessive selloff.
(6) Second chance buy opportunity 9 weeks before the BTC halving date.
- In the 2016 cycle there was a second chance buy opportunity 9 weeks before the Bitcoin halving date.
- I’m anticipating that the time cycle continues with a second chance buy opportunity between $19.2k and $22k just 9 weeks before the Apr. 2024 BTC halving date with an estimated date of February 19, 2024.
- In the Bitcoin webinar I made two errors that resulted in the wrong date (I placed the BTC halving date on Apr. 1 instead of Apr. 26 and I incorrectly counted 10 weeks instead of 9 weeks before the BTC halving date. February 19, 2024 is the correct target date.
(7) Market Crash Strategy:
I discuss my strategy for trading the market crash in the Looming Market Crash webinar.