Crypto Phases Explained: From Bitcoin Season to Full-On FOMO !Hello Traders 🐺
I hope you're doing well. In this idea, I want to dive into the different phases of the crypto market, because I feel like many new traders — and even some semi-pros — still don’t fully grasp this fundamental concept. So make sure to read this until the end and feel free to ask your questions in the comments below!
🔹 PHASE 1 – Bitcoin Season
This is where it all begins.
You can guess from the name: BTC starts outperforming almost every altcoin, especially ETH. In this phase, Bitcoin’s price often grows rapidly while most alts lag behind. As BTC's market cap rises, Bitcoin Dominance (BTC.D) also increases — and this is clearly visible on the chart.
In the current market, BTC.D is rising toward a key resistance level, suggesting we are still in late Phase 1, but possibly approaching a shift.
🔹 PHASE 2 – Ethereum Season
Why ETH and not the rest of the altcoins?
Because when smart money rotates out of BTC, the first stop is usually Ethereum, the second-largest asset by market cap. ETH is also the backbone of many other projects, so it makes sense that it leads the altcoin wave.
When ETH starts to outperform BTC, that’s your sign: Phase 2 has begun.
🔹 PHASES 3 & 4 – Altcoin Season
This is the fun part. 🤑
In Phase 3, we typically see larger cap altcoins (top 100 projects) begin to surge and hit new all-time highs. Then comes Phase 4, the final leg of the bull cycle — full-on FOMO. Even low-cap coins start doing 20x or more, and yes, many small investors suddenly feel rich.
🔎 So… how do we know what phase we’re in?
Excellent question. But a tricky one.
As mentioned, BTC.D is showing signs of weakness near a long-term resistance trendline. That could mean BTC is topping short-term, and ETH might soon start to take the lead. To confirm that, just watch the ETH/BTC chart closely.
For deeper confirmation, add these charts to your watchlist:
OTHERS/BTC
TOTAL2
TOTAL3
They help you see when capital starts flowing into mid and low-cap alts — and help you track the sunrise… and the sunset. 🌅
Final Note:
If you’re still confused during market volatility, don’t worry. Trading is a long and tough journey — and patience is key. Learn from your mistakes, stay disciplined, and always remember:
🐺 Discipline is rarely enjoyable, but almost always profitable. 🐺
Stay sharp,
🐺 KIU_COIN 🐺
BTC.D trade ideas
Bad News From Bitcoin Dominance: Pain AheadHello, Skyrexians!
I got sick for these 5 days that's why has not shared updates, but market was very boring so we didn't miss any significant move. CRYPTOCAP:BTC.D concerns me now because to end this trend we need to see any significant correction, but we didn't. On the 12h Awesome oscillator was not able to cross zero line and reversed to the upside, so our main change is that daily time frame measures the wave 3 inside the major impulse.
If we count waves inside this impulse price is approaching 1.61 Fibonacci level at 65.3% and trust me it's much better to see it's reaching before the drop. When this wave will be finished, wave 4 will happen. It can bounce significantly to 61%. This is strong target area and I am sure we will be there soon. Wave 5 can be extended, can be not. The max target is 71%! Sounds awful. The likely target at 66-67%, to make it more precise let's wait for wave 4 finish.
I plan to close in profit those part of trades which has been opened after Feb 3 dump on this potential bounce to have money to add on the last huge shakeout. People believe in altcoins too much, very unlikely to have altseason now. Ready for hate!
Best regards,
Ivan Skyrexio
___________________________________________________________
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Btc Dominance unstoppable? But wait-
BTC Dominance Nearing 0.786 Fibonacci Level – Altseason on the Horizon?
Bitcoin dominance, which measures BTC’s market cap relative to the total cryptocurrency market, is currently approaching a critical technical level — the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement, precisely around 66.20%. Historically, this level has acted as a strong resistance zone, often signaling a potential reversal in BTC dominance.
If BTC dominance starts to reverse from this level, it could mark the end of Bitcoin’s solo run and the beginning of an Altseason — a period where altcoins significantly outperform Bitcoin in terms of percentage gains.
Why does this matter?
As BTC dominance reverses, capital tends to flow from Bitcoin into altcoins, especially mid-cap and low-cap gems. This redistribution often leads to explosive moves in altcoins — with historical data showing potential 30x to even 50x returns in select projects during strong Altseasons.
This scenario aligns well with Fibonacci-based market psychology, where the 0.786 level is seen as a last point of resistance before a trend shifts. In this case, a rejection at 66.20% could be the technical confirmation that the broader market is ready to rotate out of Bitcoin and into altcoins.
Key Takeaways:
BTC dominance is nearing the 0.786 Fib level at 66.20%.
A rejection here could trigger a sharp dominance reversal.
Capital rotation may favor altcoins, setting the stage for massive gains.
Prepare for potential 30x–50x opportunities during the upcoming Altseason.
If you’re into trading or investing in the altcoin market, this could be a critical time to start researching and building positions before the breakout momentum begins.
Follow me for more premium updates.
🚀 💎 🚀
Bitcoin Dominance: My Global Overview Hello, Skyrexians!
Yesterday we made a local update on CRYPTOCAP:BTC.D where pointed out that waves order has been changed a little bit, today we will take a look at this chart globally. Soon we can have a great reversal but we will feel pain before it because target above 66% will happen.
This is monthly chart. The first greatest altseason looks like an impulsive wave 1. Then correction has been started. The first pullback finished inside 0.61 Fibonacci zone and it contains on 5 waves. This is the sign that it's wave A. If wave A has 5 waves it means that global wave 2 will be zigzag ABC or triangle ABCDE. We will exclude the zigzag because wave C has almost reached the wave A bottom, and it cannot be flat correction because wave A is impulsive, so we are in huge triangle. Waves A, C, E shall be impulsive.
Current wave is wave C which can reach any target next to the wave A top. Our earlier predicted 66-67% looks reasonable and we need to focus on internal counting. This chart is just to make us sure that we are next to reversal.
Best regards,
Ivan Skyrexio
___________________________________________________________
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Bitcoin Dominance - BTC.D - AltcoinsYears of struggle to be inside for a subseason that lasts a few weeks.
For some it's financial freedom, for others it's the cornerstone of a reset story.
We're talking about Bitcoin Dominance.
Few know just how powerful it has become.
The only thing that is real is bitcoin. By the time everyone realizes this, 99.99% of investors will have lost all their assets.
And we will all regret buying altcoins instead of bitcoin at the end of the day.
I think the most extreme peak for bitcoin dominance in the short term is 73%.
Dominance is going to have a rough ride before it crosses this target.
We will see an altcoin season that will give small investors a breather.
Then we'll break 73% with a disruptive bitcoin dominance.
Bitcoin will show everyone again who is the real boss.
Beyond FOMO: Strategic Analysis of BTC.D and Market ProspectsLet's begin by examining CRYPTOCAP:BTC.D on the monthly timeframe. Here we see the old EXP model, which formed in December 2020. This model reflected the decrease in bitcoin dominance during 2020-2021. For our current analysis, we're interested in the level of the first point — 73.02%.
On the weekly timeframe, we see an AMEXP model that formed in January 2023 and effectively describes the entire current upward trend.
Note the price reaction from the model levels of 51.7% and 59.64%. Within this model, we have two more upper levels: 68.9% and 90.36%.
The dominance level of 90.36% seems unrealistic from a common sense perspective: such a scenario is only possible with a total collapse of the entire crypto market, when all assets (including bitcoin) would depreciate to the point where bitcoin's capitalization would constitute 90% of the entire market. I hope we never see these values. However, reaching the 68.9% level seems quite likely.
Most likely, the price will try to break through the 68.9% level (we may see a bounce from this level, which might be mistakenly perceived as the beginning of a new alt season). After that, the price will likely make a new maximum and rise above the 73.2% level. And only then will we finally see the formation of a downward trend in bitcoin dominance.
What might be happening in the market if our bitcoin dominance analysis proves correct?
Let's look at the #BTC chart, where the expansion model was validated on the weekly timeframe (green model):
According to the model levels, we can expect growth to at least $109,354, and at maximum — to a new all-time high (ATH) with targets of $115,116, $116,757, and even $152,723 or $174,102 (although the probability of reaching the last two targets, despite their presence in the model, is relatively low).
If we look at CRYPTO:ETHUSD , the picture looks significantly worse — the asset is in a deep bearish phase.
Against the backdrop of general positive sentiment, CRYPTO:ETHUSD may grow to $2 059 or even to $2 626, but we will consider this merely as a bounce. We can only talk about a real trend change when the price moves beyond the yellow model.
Everyone is waiting for the reversal of bitcoin dominance (we have only calculated the most probable reversal point), as its exponential growth should be replaced by the long-awaited alt season.
However, few consider a possible negative scenario: the correction of bitcoin dominance may occur against the backdrop of a general market decline, where bitcoin will fall faster than altcoins. Against the background of growing macroeconomic uncertainty (problems in the global economy have not disappeared, they continue to accumulate, and no matter how they try to "postpone" them — this will not pass without a trace), we consider the negative scenario to be the main one.
For the past year, everyone has been saying that bitcoin is a super-reliable asset, and if something goes wrong — you need to buy bitcoin. Most retail investors love bitcoin and hate altcoins — largely because they have many unprofitable altcoins in their portfolio and no bitcoin. Each time, missing the moment to buy bitcoin, they succumbed to FOMO. Now, as bitcoin moves toward a new maximum, everyone is rushing to buy it again.
At the same time, we have a market where 80-90% of participants are in large losses. For most assets to just break even (not to mention profits), they need to grow by 300-400%.
Of course, we're not saying everything will necessarily be bad, but we prefer to stick to a strategy that primarily takes into account the negative scenario. For now, we will refrain from investment positions and give preference exclusively to speculative ones.
Bitcoin dominance and the altseasonIn this chart, you can see the Bitcoin dominance from 2017 till now.
The depth of the altseason was 35.14% and for the bear market we went up, up to 73.02.
If we take a Fibonacci retrace level, we can see during 2021 altseason we were only retraced 0.893 or 89.3% what we lost during bear market.
It was something new and for the first time, Bitcoin Dominance didn't make the new all time low.
Following the same fact, I decided to find the possible levels for bitcoin dominance to top. we are getting closing the the 0.786, this level usually the last level that we could be bearish in any chart, however remember that last altseason we passed 0.786 but rejected at 0.893.
My opinion would be we are reaching to the top of Bitcoin dominance sooner than later, I can easily see Alts are reversing from bearish in short term and BTC Dominace Maxing in stoch RSI.
When you stay longer than usual in max excitation in stoch RSI you will be doing longer in opposite direction as well
Max BTC dominance can reach 66.2%
However, worse case scenario I am expecting at least BTC Dominace during altseason drop to 49.14% which is a historical support and also resistance during BTC season and Alt Season.
Ideally, we should go down up to 45.30% as it would be the 0.786 of the range from 39.9% to 66.2%
However, if we are able to make a new All time low in BTC dominance first idea place to see rejection or reaction would be 32.38%
Bitcoin Dominance Update (4H)It appears that Bitcoin Dominance is preparing for one final upward move.
I believe this could be the last dominance rally before a major bullish breakout across the broader market.
For a more detailed perspective, please refer to my previous analyses on Bitcoin Dominance and the "Others" market cap.
— Thanks for reading.
No Altseason Until BTC.D Hits 70%?Bitcoin Dominance (BTC.D) is currently climbing and approaching a major resistance zone between 71.38% and 73.06%. This area has proven to be a strong turning point in the past, acting as a top back in December 2017, September 2019, and again in 2021. These repeated rejections suggest that this zone is likely to remain a key resistance.
Right now, BTC.D is sitting around 64.66% and still has room to push higher. However, if it enters the resistance zone again, there’s a strong chance it may face selling pressure and start reversing. The white arrow on the chart shows the possible move into resistance, while the red projection outlines the expected rejection and potential decline back toward the 54.63% level—another important support zone from the past.
In simple terms, BTC dominance might be nearing its peak, and once it reaches the upper zone, we could start seeing altcoins gain more strength as dominance falls. This chart helps anticipate when the market might shift from BTC-led rallies to altcoin outperformance.
The Most Important Bitcoin Dominance Analysis!Hello, Skyrexians!
This CRYPTOCAP:BTC.D analysis can be a little bit complicated, but this is very important update on our previous analysis. Dominance is next to the top, but now the period of unexpected moves has been started.
Today we have 12h time frame to look at the internal wave structure. Tonight dominance hit the higher degree wave 3 target at 65.3% like I told you in previous article, but the subwave inside the wave 5 inside wave 3 is not finished. Let's count the waves for yellow cycle and we can see that there were no the wave 4 because Awesome Oscillator is still above zero. When it will cross it the yellow waves 5 will finish wave 5 inside wave 3. Now I expect the move to 63-63.5% then retest of recent high again then more significant correction and then another one wave to the upside - final big shakeout.
Best regards,
Ivan Skyrexio
___________________________________________________________
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Update BTC.DFrom the data shown on the drawing, we find that a Diagonal Leading pattern has been formed and is then considered a wave A, then a correction is made in wave B, which is the bottom of the Leading pattern, from which altcoins and Ethereum breathe, and when it reaches the bottom, then a final wave C begins, rising strongly in the same direction upward. Let us follow
Note: The model fails if it closes above an area 55.26%
Alts: Dead or Ready to Explode ?!Hello Traders 🐺
Still doubting the possibility of an Altcoin Season?
Probably yes — and that’s fair. We’ve been through a major correction over the past 4 years, especially in the altcoin sector. But the big question is:
Are alts dead... or is this just the calm before the actual storm? 🤔
As you may already know, market movements depend on a mix of factors — and altcoins, in particular, need real FOMO in the market to shine, whether that’s to the upside or downside.
Let’s break it down based on the crypto bull cycle, because understanding this cycle helps you track smart money and ride along with it.
🚨 Here’s what typically happens:
Before any real BTC season, we get the halving event (every 4 years).
Right after that, whales and big players begin accumulating BTC quietly.
They maintain pressure on the market to load up at cheap prices 😁🤯
But of course, they can't keep this up forever...
As time passes, others start to catch on. On-chain data becomes more visible, and retail traders begin spotting these moves — which is key, because you can track the whales and use that data to make smarter decisions.
This BTC season usually lasts 1–2 years, during which:
BTC.D (Bitcoin Dominance) climbs steadily 📈
Money flows out of alts, and many ALTS/BTC charts crash
Some altcoins hit new all-time lows vs BTC 😒🤦♂️
But here’s the plot twist...
Nothing goes up forever — and BTC Dominance is no exception.
Right now, it’s sitting at a monthly resistance level, and we’re starting to see bearish signs building up:
Bearish divergence on the daily RSI
A clear rising wedge on the daily chart
RSI shows weakness, even while price continues climbing
This setup looks very similar to what we usually see in a distribution phase 👀
And you already know what tends to come next... 🔥🐺
Hope you found this idea helpful.
If you have any questions or thoughts, feel free to drop them in the comments below — I’m always around.
And as always, remember:
🐺 Discipline is rarely enjoyable, but almost always profitable. 🐺
🐺 KIU_COIN 🐺
Bitcoin Remains King, But Altcoins Face Potential Ruin.Although forecasts of Bitcoin reaching astronomical levels have cooled, its role as the foundation of the cryptocurrency ecosystem remains steadfast.
Bitcoin continues to demonstrate resilience and stability, serving as the digital gold standard in an increasingly volatile market.
However, a starkly different picture emerges for many Altcoins.
The classic "Head and Shoulders" pattern, a bearish technical indicator, is becoming increasingly prevalent, suggesting a potential decline or even extinction for a significant portion of the Altcoin market.
Investors need to proceed with caution and strategic foresight.Diversification and a focus on established projects like Bitcoin are paramount in mitigating risk. Understanding technical analysis and market trends is crucial to navigating the complex and ever-evolving crypto landscape.
Don't let the lure of quick gains blind you to the fundamental principles of sound investment. Choose stability, choose resilience.
SEYED.
BTC Dominance at a Decision Zone – Altcoin Outlook Hinges on Thi 🔍 BTC Dominance – 4H Chart Update
BTC.D is still respecting the ascending channel despite a brief dip below support—it quickly recovered, showing strong resilience and is now hovering near 64.76%.
📊 Scenarios Ahead:
🚀 Bullish Case: A bounce here could send dominance toward the top of the channel near 65.5%, signaling capital rotation into BTC. This may pressure ETH/BTC pairs and small caps.
📉 Bearish Case: A breakdown below the channel and key trendline would shift momentum—fueling a move into altcoins.
⚡ BTC.D holding = altcoin bleed
🌱 BTC.D breakdown = altseason potential
🔎 Next 1–2 candles are key—watch for rejection near mid-channel or a decisive support break! 👀
ALT COIN SEASON IS JUST WEEKS AWAY, HOPE YOU HAVE YOUR BAGS FULLHey Traders,
We’ve been watching this Bitcoin Dominance (BTC.D) chart closely — and it’s heating up again!
For those unfamiliar, BTC Dominance tracks the percentage of total crypto market cap that belongs to Bitcoin. When BTC.D rises, it typically means altcoins are underperforming compared to BTC — either due to their market caps falling, or BTC’s increasing. When it drops, altcoins are gaining ground.
While this chart won’t tell you whether markets go up or down, it’s critical for spotting where to diversify and when. It’s a must-have tool in your crypto trading utility belt.
⸻
Why This Chart Matters Now:
We’re nearing the top resistance trendline of a long-term triangle formation that dates all the way back to 2017. This line has rejected BTC.D multiple times in the past — and we’re back to test it again, hovering between 63% and 66% dominance.
Each of these rejections previously led to a drop in BTC Dominance — which triggered powerful altcoin seasons.
⸻
Key Bearish Signals:
• Bearish Divergence on the MACD
• MAJOR Bearish Divergence on the RSI
(Just like before previous alt seasons!)
• TOTAL2 (the white line representing all altcoins) looks poised to spike if history repeats.
Altseason Clue: When BTC.D forms bearish divergences on these indicators, it’s often followed by a surge in altcoin market cap — a key early signal we may be close to another one.
⸻
BUT… This Isn’t 2021 Anymore:
Let’s be real — the market has changed. Solana-based launchpads like Pump.fun and Jupiter DEX have revolutionized how easily tokens are created and traded. That’s new capital flow and speculative behavior we didn’t see last cycle.
Plus, the geopolitical landscape is shifting fast. With President Donald J. Trump calling for crypto regulation frameworks within 180 days, we may soon see an influx of institutional money — but it could come with strings attached.
⸻
Final Thoughts:
A breakdown in BTC.D could mean a major rotation into alts — but don’t bet the farm.
Markets could still dump. We may even skip altseason altogether this cycle.
However, this chart gives you a crucial edge — so use it wisely. Know your tools. Zoom out. Plan ahead.
As always — stay sharp, stay safe, and stay profitable out there.
— Savvy
Altseason Loading? BTC Dominance Hits Key Resistance!The BTC Dominance chart is testing a long-term weekly resistance zone.
Every time it hit this trendline in the past, we saw a strong reversal. If history repeats, altcoins could soon gain serious momentum.
Stay alert. A shift might be coming.
#BitcoinDominance #Altseason
Bitcoin Dominance TA, Bearish SignalsRecently I spotted a very strong, long-term bearish signal on this index. A triple-bearish signal as it is present with three indicators. I am talking about a bearish divergence.
Volume has been dropping significantly as the index moves higher.
The weekly RSI peaked October 2023 and has been producing lower highs. The MACD peaked July 2023.
These are long-term, but let's have a closer look and consider the daily chart.
Here we have some interesting signals as well, let's start with the candles:
—Here we have a rising wedge ending in a rounded top and long-term double-top. The uptrend is also in risk of failing. A breakdown of this uptrend, which can happen anytime, would result in a strong crash of this index.
Next is the daily RSI:
—The peak happened November 2024. There is also a short-term lower high as the peak this month happened on the 7th of April, the index peaked on the 22nd.
—The daily RSI is already trending lower.
Clearly the most interesting and revealing of all three indicators is the daily MACD. Let me show you the chart first and then I'll describe the signals:
—Here the lower high is so strong that reveals what is coming to this index. The MACD peaked in February and produced a lower high this month, April. Notice the bearish cross, it happened yesterday.
The daily MACD and RSI trending down with short-term, mid-term, long-term and long long-term bearish divergence all point towards a lower reading on these oscillators.
The last major drop for this index happened in November 2024 with the bottom hitting a month later, December 2024. At this time Bitcoin produced a very strong advance as well as the entire Altcoins market, it was awesome.
It is surely interesting to notice that the index recovers and moves higher while Bitcoin continued to grow. But at that time the Altcoins were starting their correction. Most of the Altcoins peaked late November 2024 and some in early December 2024. So this index is more related to how the Altcoins behave rather than Bitcoin.
When it drops, it does not mean that Bitcoin will drop but that the Altcoins will grow. When it grows, it does not necessarily means that Bitcoin is moving up but that the Altcoins are moving down.
We know the Altcoins are set to produce their strongest growth period since 2021. This Bitcoin Dominance index works as confirmation. It leaves no room for doubt.
» Doubt can remain open as to whether the start of this rise will happen tomorrow or within a few weeks. Short-term, anything goes; the market can become erratic and produce some strong shakeouts, specially preceding a major wave of growth. But after 2-3 weeks, it is 1,000% certain that the entire Cryptocurrency market will be bullish and up. Regardless of what this index does or anything else for that matter. When the time is ripe, the market grows.
The time is ripe right now... You will be happy with the results.
Namaste.
Bitcoin Dominance TO 52% with in 7 to 14 days Bitcoin dominance has recently experienced a significant upward trend, reaching 64.96% on the daily timeframe. This surge highlights Bitcoin’s growing strength 💪 relative to the broader cryptocurrency market. Currently, dominance is approaching a key resistance level at 65.79% 📈, which is considered a potential reversal zone 🔄.
🧠 Technical Overview
A closer look 🔍 at the recent momentum in Bitcoin dominance reveals signs of a maturing uptrend 📶. As the indicator nears historically significant resistance levels, the probability of a downward correction 📉 increases. Based on time-based analysis ⏱, signs of a pullback are expected to emerge within the next 7 to 14 days 📆 from the point of touching or nearing the 65.79% level.
🎯 Potential Correction Targets
If the anticipated reversal materializes, the correction targets are as follows:
First Target: A retracement to the 60% level, which has acted as prior support 🛑 and could temporarily halt further declines.
Second Target (deeper correction): A move down to 52%, a strategic support level 🧱 that could pave the way for altcoins 🚀 to outperform.
#BTC Dominance Update – Key Levels in Play!🚀 Hey Traders! 👋
If you’re finding value in this analysis, smash that 👍 and hit Follow for high-accuracy trade setups that actually deliver! 💹🔥
Bitcoin dominance ( CRYPTOCAP:BTC.D ) is trading inside a beautifully defined rising channel on the 4H chart.
📈 What’s unfolding?
✔ Strong support holds at the lower channel line (marked by green arrows)
✔ Bounce potential toward the upper channel resistance (~65%)
✔ Expect possible rejection there, followed by another retest of support
💥 Why this matters:
✅ BTC dominance drives altcoin sentiment
✅ Rising dominance → pressure on altcoins
✅ Watch for a breakdown below support → potential altcoin relief rally
⚙ Key Takeaway:
Monitor this channel carefully. If dominance breaks below support, alts could gain momentum. If it bounces, BTC will continue to lead.
💬 Drop your thoughts in the comments — are you betting on BTC or alts next? 🚀👇