BTC.D trade ideas
$BTC.D prediction based on the current situation.CRYPTOCAP:BTC.D has been climbing steadily since the start of this bull run.
It’s often said that an altseason begins when BTC dominance drops below 55%. However, the 54% level appears to be a strong support zone, with the MACD showing a low point and the RSI entering oversold territory.
My analysis suggests that BTC dominance has established a range between 59% and 55%. It’s likely to bounce off the top resistance, pushing dominance back toward the support.
If the next drop breaks through this support, it could finally trigger a true altseason.
BTC.D ChartAs i mentioned in my previous analysis i expected BTC.D to have it's pull back to the inverse cup & handle pattern and midline of it's channel and we got a beautiful red inverse hammer from the resistance zone. Im expecting BTC.D to continue it's path to the lower numbers which will give alt coins some room to grow and a future alt season.
Market might give a bit more correction due to other charts which you can read on my profile, but don't get shaken out and buy the dips and you'll thank me later.
The Giga cycle is upon us.
DYOR
Goodluck
Good week ahead for alts IF BTC.DSeems dominance must retest 57%; this gives a good push for quick scalps this week. Stay safe; use 4H confirmations. US gov shutdown news are done. Always take profits; i uncertain about the first 10 days of 2025. I am sure i will not miss the best opportunity to ape in. You may with to look OTHERS.D; it is rebouncing which is another confluence for the coming week positive for alts.
The Fibonacci golden ratio (commonly 0.618 or 61.8%) Always PlayThe Fibonacci golden ratio (commonly 0.618 or 61.8%) is a powerful concept in trading and is often used for identifying potential reversal or continuation zones. However, while it is highly effective, it doesn’t always work, as no tool or concept in trading guarantees 100% accuracy. Here's why:
Why Fibonacci Golden Ratio Works:
Natural Patterns: The Fibonacci ratio is rooted in nature and psychology. It reflects patterns that occur in financial markets as traders’ behavior often aligns with these ratios.
Support and Resistance: The 61.8% retracement level frequently acts as a strong support or resistance zone where price reacts.
Widely Used: Many traders use Fibonacci levels, which makes them self-fulfilling to some extent.
Why It Doesn't Always Work:
Market Conditions: Fibonacci levels may fail in choppy or sideways markets where clear trends or retracements don’t exist.
Lack of Confluence: A single Fibonacci level without other confirmations (like trendlines, candlestick patterns, or volume) might not hold.
External Factors: Sudden news, macroeconomic events, or unexpected volatility can overpower technical analysis.
How to Make It More Effective:
Combine with Confluences: Use Fibonacci retracements with trendlines, candlestick patterns, moving averages, or RSI divergence for higher accuracy.
Check Market Context: Apply Fibonacci in trending markets where retracements are more predictable.
Backtest and Refine: Analyze past data to see how well Fibonacci levels align with price action in the assets you trade.
Analyzing Bitcoin Dominance: Pinpointing the Pivot to Alt SeasonTo identify a key pivot point for an altcoin season, let’s analyze Bitcoin Dominance (BTC.D) using the Monthly Chart, which provides a clearer overview of pivot levels and trends.
Current Outlook on BTC Dominance
Stochastic RSI Signals Bearish Momentum
The Monthly Stochastic RSI turned bearish in November with a confirmed bearish crossover. This suggests a continued decline in BTC dominance and aligns with the larger market narrative of Bitcoin being in its final Wave 4 & 5 of the current cycle.
Rejection at the 0.618 Fibonacci Level
In November, BTC dominance rejected the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level, a significant resistance point. A similar rejection occurred during the 2021 bull run, marking the peak in BTC.D and the shift of money pouring into Alt Coins.
What Happened After the 2021 Rejection?
After BTC.D rejected the 0.618 level in 2021:
Bitcoin Continued Rising: Bitcoin’s price rallied as dominance declined.
Altcoin Market Share Increased: This shift in dominance marked the beginning of Alt Season, with altcoins gaining significant market share.
As BTC.D retraced to the 0.382 Fibonacci level, Bitcoin and dominance both consolidated and moved sideways. During this period, altcoins experienced exponential growth, with many hitting new highs.
Where Are We Now?
The current setup appears to mirror the 2021 scenario:
BTC dominance rejected the 0.618 Fibonacci level in November.
A decline in dominance is expected, leading to - 1) Bitcoin’s price increasing. 2) Bitcoin dominance decreasing, signaling the expansion of the altcoin market.
What to Watch Next
Key Consolidation Levels:
BTC dominance could retrace to around 53.9% or lower, where consolidation is likely to occur.
During this phase, the altcoin market is expected to expand further, with surging prices and new all-time highs.
Altcoin Season Peak:
A critical level to monitor is 47% dominance (0.618 Fibonacci level). Once BTC.D falls below this threshold, the market may approach the peak of altcoin season.
At this stage, consider developing an exit strategy, as altcoins could be nearing their cycle highs.
Conclusion
The rejection at the 0.618 level and the bearish monthly Stochastic RSI suggest that Bitcoin dominance is poised to decline further. If history repeats, we could see a significant rally in altcoins while Bitcoin continues to rise. Monitoring BTC.D’s retracement to 53.9% or below and its potential fall through 47% will be crucial for identifying the peak of altcoin season and planning a timely exit.
BTC Dominance ThoughtsBTC Dominance is moving in the pattern from last few days break this pattern can lead to fall. RSI support is broken below and on retest now. BTC.D is test 0.61 fib level and show weakness also we have seen outflow in BTC ETF but adoption of BTC is a big question here this bull run will be different than before will see.
BTC Dominance ThoughtsBTC Dominance is moving in the pattern from last few days break this pattern can lead to fall. RSI support is broken below and on retest now. BTC.D is test 0.61 fib level and show weakness also we have seen outflow in BTC ETF but adoption of BTC is a big question here this bull run will be different than before will see.
$BTC Dominance is keyYou must watch this metric to understand #ALTSEASON
CRYPTOCAP:BTC Dominance is the most important metric now.
CRYPTOCAP:BTC Dominance rising or ranging is very bearish.
This means money is not flowing into altcoins yet.
When CRYPTOCAP:BTC Dominance falls altcoins will pump to ATHs.
The key is not to get shaken out while waiting.
Be patient and DIAMOND HANDS.
Bitcoin Dominance Cycles: Key Insights: Litecoin, Cardano, PLSDiscover the repeating cycles of Bitcoin dominance and how they correlate with altcoins like Litecoin, Cardano, and Pulsechain. This analysis reveals a potential peak in Bitcoin dominance by March, likely ahead of the broader market cycle top. Could this be the key to timing the market? Dive into the chart and uncover actionable insights for the coming months.
📈 Highlights:
Bitcoin dominance historical cycles
Altcoin trends aligned with dominance shifts
Potential implications for March 2024
🔗 Add your thoughts and share if you find this valuable!
#Bitcoin #Crypto #TradingView #Altcoins #Litecoin #Cardano #Pulsechain #CryptoCycles #BTCdominance"
When and Where this Bull Market Ends / BTC.D and TOTAL3 BehaviorCRYPTOCAP:BTC.D
Bitcoin Dominance and Alt Season Trigger:
The chart indicates that when Bitcoin Dominance reaches around 59%-64%, there’s a high chance of an BTC dominance market correction. This level often signals the end of a Bitcoin rally and the start of funds flowing into altcoins.
You can use this dominance level as a timing signal to anticipate the start of the next alt season.
Historical Patterns and Timelines:
Key vertical markers show important dates from past cycles, such as 2018, 2021, and projected points for 2025. These points highlight recurring patterns that can help forecast the end of the current Bitcoin rally.
TOTAL3 Index Trends Relative to BTC:
The TOTAL3 index (all altcoins excluding BTC and ETH) shows that after Bitcoin Dominance declines, TOTAL3 often experiences a sharp rise. This pattern has repeated in previous cycles, hinting at a potential similar move in the upcoming alt season.
Bitcoin Price Rallies and Corrections:
The lower chart shows Bitcoin's bullish and bearish phases, typically lasting between 450 to 550 days. This timeframe can help estimate the remaining duration of the current Bitcoin rally.
Future Predictions:
Based on the chart, Bitcoin Dominance is expected to reach critical levels again in 2025, potentially marking the start of the next major alt season. While this timeline depends on market conditions and investor behavior, it offers a general framework.
BTC.D Getting Rejected at the Trend Line Gives ALTS Hope After the Trump Pump delivered massive gains on a lot of coins since election day, it's not surprising to see some huge retracements. In fact the vast majority of ALTS have given back more than 40% with many in the 50% - 60% range. That capitulation means opportunities are coming. The question is whether or not we will get a legit Alt Season or if the Trump Pump was it.
Due to institutional demand and the ever changing dynamics in the crypto market we may not see BTC.D fall to the 40% - 45% levels, but failure to reclaim the 60% range after a rejection from the trend line may be an indication that we could get another crack at a legit Alt Season.
Keeping an eye on BTC.D and a select group of Alts to see how things develop from here.