I Like Hunting Long Setups On The Swiss FrancHello all,
I hope everyone is well and following their trading plans. A site member brought a forex idea up with me today and I thought I would give my answer to the broader community's attention through a post here on TradingView. This is a very typical study I would do on any asset for any time frame for any type of investor/trader. Ideally, students of my level one trader education program leave with both a thorough understanding of everything you see on this chart but also the ability to do the exact same on any chart of their choosing.
So on to the chart. While no one knows for sure of anything in life, I sure like the idea of hunting long setups on the Swiss Franc at or near current levels. The trade location is appealing because it corresponds with a Fib. study trade location tool (the Line-in-the-sand within a RLZ), this market's Volume Profile PoC (Point of Control), a confluence of moving averages and most importantly, lets you take a long position on the S. Franc and risk to pre-euro-link-break levels (which I don't any of the Swiss Central Bankers want to see). From a sentiment perspective, Euro bearishness has been present for a while. It seems to have hit it's zennith with Grexit round-3. Maybe that pendulum needs to swing the other way for a bit.
Regardless, the trade itself has not developed yet but I am watching closely. Specifically, I am watching the 1.0108 & 1.03460 levels. Should the recent lows hold on what seems like a very likely retest, and we then can move back above 1.03460 I shall move to actively hunting longs. Conversely, should we see new lows then I will have to wait for new market structure to develop to consider playing the long side and the idea is basically shelved.
Just my thoughts, hope you like JC....teehee
Brian
The Rational Investor
p.s feel free to drop by our chat room here on TradingView if you have any questions ( www.tradingview.com ). Additionally, if you would like to really learn how to trade professionally then consider joining our school programs. Registration is no cost and you get Gold membership access until our fall term starts in September www.therationalinvestor.co
Cheers
6S1! trade ideas
Is the Swiss Franc to Blame for Gold's Pullback?The Swiss franc is lower on the day amid speculation that the Swiss National Bank (SNB) will intervene in the foreign exchange market in order to actively weaken the currency.
As you can see by the comparison, gold tracks the Swissy rather closely. Interestingly enough, gold's all-time high of $1,923 ended at about the same time the SNB decided to peg their currency to the euro. When the peg was first introduced, the single-largest daily inflow in the GLD occurred but had been wound down throughout the last few years. Traders matched that inflow into the GLD when the SNB pulled the plug on the peg.
However, I think the SNB is playing with fire. They have already taken a 60 billion CHF hit to their FX reserves due to the abrupt end of the euro peg. Furthermore, it became too expensive to keep the peg on the euro, so the SNB will likely hint at intervention as a means to keep traders from piling into it. This could work in the short-term, but these methods usually do not have lasting effects. With a balance sheet of almost 90 percent of GDP, the SNB's bluff will likely be called out in the long-run.
The franc has been a "safe" haven for investors, whether the central bank likes it or not. If global turmoil continues to strengthen, I expect the franc, and presumably gold, to increase throughout the year.
Keeping in mind, there is a 40 percent weekly appreciation that has to be digested.
The correlation should be watched further.
Swiss Franc update - End of month(2014/06/30)Now I'm looking 3 weeks up-swing
It looks blue modified schiff pichfork working
So concentrating blue median and 38% Fibo(1.1617)
I'll long late july(form 2014 - 07 - 18~~~)
Swiss WC team did already well,so
thou Argentina WC team Win
I'll reamin long
The 'Swissie' trades like goldTime to sell the 'Swissie'. Good risk reward ratio. The first target is on the bear median line (1.0800). The same applies to the Euro.
