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MBT1! trade ideas

BTCUSD to 98k maybe beyondI have been bullish BTC for a very long time. To be honest the money has been dead for quite a while and I could have made a lot more profits trading and investing elsewhere. The idea was always to hold until we reached $100k and with a decent close in October we may get a chance to see that big round number in 2024. Plan B says we should hold for ~18-months after the halving and Michael Saylor would say we should double up because the train ain't stopping anytime soon. Raul Paoul says we're in a Banana Zone but as I can't pay taxes in BTC as of today or any time soon, I am going to take my cash and go in the coming months if we hit my target.
CME:BTC1!Long
by Macrobriefing
1
Satoshi Nakamoto Came to Me in a Dream: A Prophecy for Bitcoin'sIn the deep silence of a night steeped in anticipation, I found myself face-to-face with Satoshi Nakamoto—the visionary architect of Bitcoin, an idea that defied the grip of centralized power. Satoshi was there, not in some distant memory or online forum, but in a dream, carrying a message—a prophecy—one too important to ignore. He looked somber, a silent witness to how the forces of traditional finance were gathering, ready to twist his creation to their own ends. "They no longer seek to destroy Bitcoin," he began with a solemn tone, "their ambition now is control." The Vision and the Paradox Bitcoin was crafted to be the people’s financial escape—a decentralized network immune to the whims of centralized institutions. Yet, as Satoshi spoke, a sobering truth unfolded: those very institutions, the titans of traditional finance who once mocked and dismissed Bitcoin, now see its potential. Their aim isn’t to dismantle it; rather, they seek to subdue it, to mold it into a tool that reinforces their power. This is not the "democratization of finance"; it is the calculated absorption of a rival asset. As we speak, the institutions and elites—those with the deepest pockets and the heaviest influence—are lying in wait, ready to strike once Bitcoin hits attractive lows. The Inevitable Institutional Encroachment The wealthy and powerful are preparing to step in not to dismantle Bitcoin, but to capture it, to turn it into an asset under their command. They understand that if they can drive down the price through coordinated media campaigns, scare tactics, and market maneuvers, they’ll gain a second chance to enter the race—this time, from a position of dominance, just like what's happening now in NYSE:NIO . Satoshi warned that when the price sinks to around 42K–$44K, retail traders must stay calm and avoid panic. This moment will signal the beginning, not the end. @TradingView 's team had given a sign for those who can see. Satoshi’s message was clear. These financial giants are waiting patiently, calculating the precise moment—likely when Bitcoin hovers between FWB:42K –$44K. At this level, they will begin a quiet accumulation, a meticulously orchestrated buy-in. Retail traders must brace themselves, for this threshold isn’t the market’s surrender—it’s the institutional entry point. The perceived weakness will be a façade, an illusion crafted to shake out those who are unprepared. When this moment comes, remember: the journey is only beginning. The Elites’ Mastery of the "Long Game" Banks and corporate titans like NYSE:BLK , NYSE:JPM , and their ilk understand the power of accumulation. They have perfected this strategy over centuries, buying assets slowly, covertly, until they hold the lion's share. Satoshi’s tone shifted, reflecting both irony and lament. “The very forces Bitcoin was designed to challenge have found a way to infiltrate its ranks.” These players are not here for the quick flip; they are here for dominion. Once their holdings are substantial enough, we will witness a price surge that defies belief. But here lies the trap. As the price soars, the majority will celebrate a supposed victory for decentralization, blissfully unaware that the power structure has quietly shifted. Bitcoin’s freedom, once a beacon for the disenfranchised, will become yet another asset under the surveillance of those who craft the rules. This moment will signal the beginning, not the end. The False Dawn: Retail’s Fleeting Moment Satoshi looked pained as he warned of the fleeting triumph that retail traders might feel. The price rallies will be extraordinary, euphoric even, but temporary. This is the "sugar high" phase—a dazzling price ascent, "too good to be true." However, this euphoria is not for retail’s ultimate benefit; it’s merely an invitation to participate in what will become an elite-dominated asset class. The dream of a decentralized currency will wane, replaced by an era of institutional manipulations, as retail is once again sidelined. As Satoshi’s voice grew firmer, he revealed the hidden intent: "Once they’ve amassed enough control, they’ll raise the price beyond the reach of ordinary investors. It will become an asset class dominated by the elite, with most people relegated to the sidelines, holding onto memories of a decentralized vision that’s slipped out of their grasp." These assets will be marketed as “stable” and “trustworthy,” each subtly backed by Bitcoin yet centrally controlled. In this way, the very ethos of Bitcoin—freedom from centralized power—will be hollowed out, leaving only a veneer of decentralization. The Irony of Adoption CME:BTC1! is meant to erode the power of banks, might ironically solidify their hold over the digital financial future. While retail investors will indeed enjoy a price rally once the institutional whales have filled their coffers, this journey, Satoshi warned, could be short-lived. The massive gains—those tempting, almost surreal profits that are “too good to be true”—will eventually give way to institutional manipulations that edge out the average investor. The ultimate irony: Bitcoin, born to disrupt, might integrate so seamlessly into the system that its original purpose is blurred, absorbed into the very structures it was meant to oppose. Satoshi’s Final Counsel to Traders “The true test,” Satoshi told me, “isn’t just to hold Bitcoin but to understand why you’re holding it. When the banks and institutions try to sway you, remember my vision. Bitcoin was meant to empower the people, not to become another tool for control.” Satoshi’s final words echoed like a haunting directive: “It’s not enough to hold Bitcoin. You must understand why you hold it.” This is the true test—one not just of patience but of conviction. When the media narratives shift, when FUD (fear, uncertainty, doubt) rises, and institutions seek to manipulate sentiment, remember the original vision. Bitcoin was never intended to enrich the elites; it was a symbol of liberation. In this prophecy, the $100K milestone is no longer just a target; it’s a turning point. As the price reaches these stratospheric levels, retail must recognize that they’re witnessing the climax of Bitcoin’s initial journey—a journey that may soon belong to another audience. The Last Stand for Decentralization Satoshi’s words compel us to remain vigilant. To the levels in the chart, often touted as a "danger zone," will mark the final rallying cry for decentralization. The elites will sow fear and manipulate the market, but retail must recognize this as a pivotal moment—a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to hold strong, to embody the very spirit of Bitcoin. Satoshi’s message was clear: "Hold not just for profit, but for the principles upon which Bitcoin was built. Stay grounded. Stay true." With Satoshi’s words etched into my mind, I’m compelled to share his message. Retail traders must remain grounded, aware of the motivations driving Bitcoin’s fluctuations. The narrative that Bitcoin will “collapse” just as it nears $45K? This is a trap. The news stories designed to induce panic? They’re orchestrated by those who know the value and want a piece of it, under their terms. The road to $100K, while paved with profit, may lead to a future where banks and elites ultimately hold the reins. This is the paradox of Bitcoin’s rise. And while profits may be immense, the retail community must remember what Satoshi set out to achieve. As long as there are those who resist, Bitcoin’s original vision lives on. #LonelyApollo
CME:BTC1!Short
by LonelyApollo
3
Bitcoin is almost there!CRYPTOCAP:BTC is at a VERY IMPORTANT level. This area has been an issue for the last few YEARS. One thing to notice is that #BTC volume is WEAK, look at yellow box. Do you notice that volume is UNDER the white line? That line is an average. This means that the recent volume is below average for 90 days = LIGHT. This could be because sell volume has been light. Now we need to consider, what will cause BUY VOLUME to come in & propel higher? #Bitcoin is almost there, good signs showing. Incoming volume to break out would be a huge plus!!! ETF's are great, we like AMEX:BITX for leveraged exposure and trading, but keep in mind; NOT IN YOUR WALLET, NOT YOURS!
CME:BTC1!Long
by ROYAL_OAK_INC
Bitcoin Breakout Alert! The daily Bitcoin chart just broke through its downtrend line from March 2024 — and it did so with some serious momentum! 📈 Now we’re watching for a continuation of this upward move. The first key resistance level? The March 2024 high at $74,415. Looking at the big picture on the monthly chart, BTC has been in a four-year uptrend channel, with the upper boundary currently around $81,150. That’s the next target if we clear this high. Exciting times ahead! 🚀 Disclaimer: The information posted on Trading View is for informative purposes and is not intended to constitute advice in any form, including but not limited to investment, accounting, tax, legal or regulatory advice. The information therefore has no regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any specific recipient. Opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date appearing on Trading View only. All illustrations, forecasts or hypothetical data are for illustrative purposes only. The Society of Technical Analysts Ltd does not make representation that the information provided is appropriate for use in all jurisdictions or by all Investors or other potential Investors. Parties are therefore responsible for compliance with applicable local laws and regulations. The Society of Technical Analysts will not be held liable for any loss or damage resulting directly or indirectly from the use of any information on this site.
CME:BTC1!Long
by The_STA
BTC breakout longCME:BTC1! Strong break above the downtrend resistance two weeks ago. Has consolidated and retested the line, and is near the top of this two-week consolidation. A break above 70k (70,250) and things are back into crazy-pants bullish territory. On a solid break above 70k, this entire year will look to be a consolidation after the move from 34k to 78k. Which means, the measured move would be either another 44k up, or another +130%. We could see 150k by March of next year.
CME:MBT1!Long
by OverexposedPhotoOfADress
Directional bias for trade filtering on lower TF , or 70 win %Hi there! I’m excited to share a system I’ve developed called 'Zones.' These zones offer a directional bias, helping predict where price is likely to move next with a current follow-through rate of 70%. In other words, if the price exits one of the orange zones, there’s a 70% chance it will reach the next orange zone, at least touching the boundary, rather than reversing back and closing within the previous zone. You can trade these zones directly for a 70% win rate, or use them as a directional bias to complement your existing strategy on a 1-minute or 5-minute chart (which I highly recommend). Important note: When the price briefly exits a zone but doesn’t close outside it, this is not considered a valid exit — we call this a "spike" or wick. For the 70% win rate to apply, the price must close outside the zone. These zones are the result of years of research, experimental machine learning development, and collaboration with colleagues who have decades of experience in physics. And the best part? I’m offering them completely free. The real challenge isn’t just following a system with a 70% win rate — it’s whether you can overcome your own psychology and avoid sabotaging your success. If you had a winning strategy, what’s really stopping you from being consistently profitable? Often, the answer is ourselves. My zones are built on theoretical thermodynamics and mathematical proofs that help predict the likely trajectory of a system, similar to particle movement in physics. Keep in mind, the orange zone line represents an unpredictable area — while the price often touches the line, there are instances where it may not reach it. Due to the inherent limitations of modern physics, this zone remains an unsolvable area, adding a layer of uncertainty to the system. I promise, none of the paid indicators, whether it’s LuxAlgo or anything from a Pine Wizard or trading “guru,” can match the accuracy of these zones. But don’t take my word for it — try them for yourself and see the results!
CME:BTC1!
by user2839409
Chart Pattern Analysis Of Bitcoin. K1 and K2 is strong bearish engulfing, But unfortunately, K3 failed to close below K2 to verify the strong momentum. And the supply pressure sharply decreased. So, it is possible that the following candles consolidate here for weeks and then choose to break up or fall down. On the other hand, It is also likely that K4 will break up immediately and another bull run stars here. If that’s the fact, The present months scale consolidation will be terminated here. Long-60.4K/Stop-60K/Target-74K Long-66.5K/Stop-66K/Target-74K
CME:BTC1!Long
by nothingchangehere
Bitcoin | The Last Short (4-9X | 400% Potential)➖ Acknowledgments I would like to thank all of my long-term readers for their continued support. I would like to thank my editor, for getting me out of so many blunders; the developers and the incredible staff at TradingView for doing an amazing job with the platform behind the scenes; but most of all, I would like to thank my wife and kids for always being there for me through these difficult times. Everybody knows how hard it is to read charts and share publicly what we belief to be the correct translation of the digital codes, the financial hieroglyphs. I would like to thank everybody that engages with the content. ➖ Introduction Many of you are aware that Bitcoin is about to crash. This is the last opportunity to short at a very high price before market conditions change completely. After this move unravels, Bitcoin will never be the same. ➖ Chapter 1: What To Expect You can expect to see the strongest bearish action, the biggest correction in more than two years, since mid-2022. ➖ Chapter 2: The Numbers These are the full numbers for my most recent Bitcoin short. We give some flexibility now in order to fight the trading bots. But we are going with 6-8X with entry at current price (whatever that price might be at the time of publish). SHORT BTCUSDT Leverage: 4X - 9X Entry levels: 1) $68,500 2) $66,000 3) $63,000 Targets: 1) $60,000 2) $57,000 3) $53,500 4) $50,000 5) $44,444 6) $39,000 7) $36,500 8) $33,500 Stop-loss: Adjust to your own risk tolerance Potential profits: 189% - 422% Capital allocation: 4% ➖ Disclaimer Leveraged trading is for experts and comes with very high risk. Do your research before jumping in. This is not financial advice. ➖ Apendix The first four targets were hit already in a previous down-wave. This means that these are high probability targets because Bitcoin remains trading within a lower high compared to the start of the previous drop. We expect a lower low next. Experience is needed to approach these numbers. I am wishing you tons of success. ➖ About The Author I've been writing on TradingView since December 2017. My supporters love me and I love my supporters. We are only getting started. We are 100% Cryptocurrency and we belief Crypto to be the present of money. In 2025, Cryptocurrency will be established as a common medium of exchange. Cryptocurrency will go mainstream. If you don't know about Crypto, it means you are offline, you live in the woods. Thanks a lot for your continued support. Namaste.
CME:BTC1!Short
by MasterAnanda
61
Is Bitcoin's Breakout from Accumulation Channel a Sign of FurtheBitcoin, the world's largest cryptocurrency, has recently surged past the $68,000 mark, setting a new local high and confirming its bullish uptrend. This significant breakout has ignited excitement among analysts and investors, who are closely monitoring the cryptocurrency's next moves. As Bitcoin continues its ascent, many are speculating about the potential for further gains and the factors driving this momentum. One of the key factors contributing to Bitcoin's recent price surge is its breakout from a long-term accumulation channel. This technical pattern, which has persisted for over seven months, indicates a period of consolidation and accumulation before a potential price increase. By breaking out of this channel, Bitcoin has signaled a shift in market sentiment and a renewed bullish momentum. Analysts and experts are closely examining various indicators to gauge the strength of Bitcoin's uptrend and identify potential resistance levels. The Relative Strength Index (RSI), a momentum oscillator, is currently hovering near overbought levels, suggesting that a short-term pullback may be necessary to consolidate gains before further upward movement. However, the overall trend remains bullish, and a break above the previous all-time high of $69,000 could signal a more extended rally. In addition to technical analysis, fundamental factors are also playing a role in Bitcoin's price appreciation. The growing adoption of cryptocurrencies by institutional investors and corporations is driving demand for Bitcoin as a store of value and a hedge against inflation. Moreover, the increasing use of Bitcoin for payments and remittances is contributing to its mainstream acceptance. However, it is essential to approach the current Bitcoin rally with caution. The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile, and prices can experience significant fluctuations. While the long-term outlook for Bitcoin remains positive, short-term corrections are a common occurrence. Investors should be prepared for potential pullbacks and have a well-defined risk management strategy in place. As Bitcoin continues its upward trajectory, several key factors will likely influence its future price movement. The regulatory landscape, particularly in the United States, will play a crucial role. Favorable regulatory developments could further fuel Bitcoin's adoption and price appreciation. Additionally, the macroeconomic environment, including interest rates and inflation, will also impact investor sentiment towards risk assets like Bitcoin. Furthermore, the competition from other cryptocurrencies cannot be overlooked. While Bitcoin currently dominates the market, the emergence of new and innovative projects could potentially challenge its position. The development of scalable blockchain solutions and the introduction of new use cases for cryptocurrencies could impact Bitcoin's market share. In conclusion, Bitcoin's recent breakout from a long-term accumulation channel has ignited excitement and speculation about its potential for further gains. While the overall trend remains bullish, investors should approach the current rally with caution and be mindful of potential risks. By carefully considering technical analysis, fundamental factors, and the competitive landscape, investors can make informed decisions about their Bitcoin investments.
CME:BTC1!Long
by bryandowningqln
BTC CME GAP- CME and cryptocurrency ETFs are important, but in different ways : - The CME is more influential in terms of institutional trading, price discovery, and market structure, while ETFs play a crucial role in making cryptocurrencies accessible to a broader range of investors and driving market adoption. - Don't focus on ETFs, they are still young and small in BTC/ETH market ( around 5% ). - Chicago Mercantile Exchange are older. - Wealthy investors are in BTC from 2017. - This Gap have to be taken soon or later. PS : the green line is EMA200 Happy Tr4Ding !
CME:BTC1!
by thecryer
$BTC Bull flag still holding strong. My opinion on the market is that we are still in bull mode. This bull run is different from the past ones, and it is best to flow with the market. The bulls are holding strong. However, as there is still liquidity below, we "may" pick it before the trend continues upward. Activating dual position to dollar cost average for the bull run seem right. The STIC indicator is giving a positive hedge. For BTC, we should potentially retest 61-63k. Once 69k break and hold,the bull flag is completed, and we are a go for a new all-time high.
CME:BTC1!Long
by Heswaikcrypt
$BTC finally looking good at upper range of downtrendCRYPTOCAP:BTC is currently trading above the highs of last bull run. #BTC was here yesterday but it gave it back and rolled under. A lot of resistance in this area. How will it do today at close? Still in a downtrend but this is the best #bitcoin has looked when testing the upper part of the channel. Weekly it is looking great. ALMOST THERE!!! A little bit more! #crypto (Try and post here as much as possible but pls see our profile for more info)
CME:BTC1!
by ROYAL_OAK_INC
$BTC1! Near touch and kiss rally pt. II?The Bitcoin CME futures market recently saw its 50-day moving average (DMA) approach a “death cross” with the 200-day moving average, a bearish signal typically indicating potential downward momentum. As the two averages neared this crossover, market sentiment grew cautious, with some traders anticipating further declines. However, contrary to expectations, Bitcoin futures experienced a strong rally instead. The surprising upward movement defied the negative technical signal, fueled by renewed buying interest, positive macro factors, or increased institutional demand. This rally highlights Bitcoin’s resilience and unpredictable market dynamics, even when traditional bearish signals loom over the charts.
CME:BTC1!Long
by UnknownUnicorn35181237
Event-Driven Strategy using Bitcoin Weekly FuturesCME: Bitcoin Weekly Futures ( MIL:BFF ) On Thursday, October 10th, The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported that the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.2% on a seasonally adjusted basis, the same increase as in August and July. Over the last 12 months, the all-items index increased 2.4% before seasonal adjustment. However, the headline CPI came in ahead of the 0.1% monthly gain and 2.3% year-over-year rate expected by analysts polled by Dow Jones. As a result, both the US equity markets and cryptocurrencies slipped on Thursday. While the year-over-year headline CPI is the lowest since February 2021, digging into the category data reveals sticky inflation. Noticeable data includes: • Food: +2.3% YoY. However, Eggs jumped 39.6%, while “nonconcentrated juices + soft drinks” category was up 15.3%. • Motor vehicle insurance: +16.3% YoY • Video discs + other media: +11.6% YoY • Admission to sporting events: +10.3% YoY • Health insurance: +7.5% YoY High prices affect day-to-day life and contradict the notion of low inflation. The fact is that prices have gone up a lot in the past few years. Even though they rise more slowly now, the absolute price levels remain high. Examples from my personal experiences: • The $9 price tag for 1-1/2 dozen eggs caused me to reduce purchase to 1-dozon for $5. I still remember the good old days of 99-cent per dozen large eggs. • I watched a WNBC match featuring Indianapolis Fever and Catlin Clark in the summer. A seat close by the basketball court costs $200. Adding up hotel stay, fuel cost and a $50 T-shirt, this felt like a vacation budget. • A recent doctor’s visit required copayment of $100. Six months ago, the same clinic charged $75. This is a 33.3% increase. Event to Watch: The Next Fed Rate Decision Retrospectively, it appears that the Federal Reserve acted a bit too aggressively with the supersized 50-bp rate cut in September. With the sticky inflation data, the Fed’s next move on November 7th is uncertain. According to CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, as of October 11th, the futures market expects the Fed to cut 25 basis points at the next FOMC meeting, with an 88.4% probability. Gone are the odds of another supersized cut. Meanwhile, the probability of a no-cut increases to 11.6%. www.cmegroup.com Driven by the lowered expectation on Fed rate cuts, on Thursday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed down 0.14% to 42,454, and the S&P 500 slipped 0.21% to settle at 5,780. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq composite shaved up 10 points (-0.05%) and closed at 18,282. The cryptocurrency market has a more pronounced reaction. Bitcoin gave up the psychologically important $60K level, lost $1,442 (or -2.36%) and settled at $59,564. Meanwhile, ETHER gave up $57.2 (or -2.38%) and closed at $2,356. However, market sentiments are still very bullish. By Friday, strong Q3 earnings reported by JPMorgan and Well Fargo helped push the stock market up again, with the S&P 500 breaking 5,800 and making its 45th all-time high in 2024. In my opinion, Bitcoin futures would be a good instrument for event-driven trades on the Fed rate decisions, given its higher volatility. Introducing Bitcoin Friday Futures Bitcoin Friday futures ( MIL:BFF ) are weekly, USD-settled contracts that offer a more precise way to gain bitcoin exposure and manage risk relating to such exposure. Each contract represents 1/50 of a bitcoin, ensuring capital efficiency and accessibility. The contract size of BFF is 1/5 of that of Micro Bitcoin Futures ( NYSE:MBC ), which is 1/10 of a Bitcoin. These shorter-dated contracts expire and settle to the CME CF Bitcoin Reference Rate New York Variant (BRRNY) every Friday at 4:00 p.m. New York time and may track the spot price of bitcoin more closely. Futures contracts traditionally expire on a monthly or quarterly basis, such as BTC and MBT, whereas BFF will settle weekly every Friday. Because of this shorter duration, BFF will have a shorter cost of carry resulting in a price that may more closely track bitcoin’s spot price. Bitcoin futures price = bitcoin spot price + financing costs to carry the position to expiration Two consecutive Fridays will be listed at any time. A new BFF contract will be listed every Thursday at 6:00 p.m. New York time such that market participants will be able to trade the nearest Friday plus the next two Fridays giving traders the choice to hold or not hold exposure over the weekend depending on their preference. Trade Setup using BFF for the FOMC Event The Federal Open Market Committee will release its next rate decision at 2:00 PM Eastern Time on Thursday, November 7th. The BFF contract expiring Friday, November 8th will begin trading at 6:00 PM Eastern Time on Thursday, October 24th. A trade could be set up on or after October 24th, and closed by November 7th or 8th, after the market reacts to the Fed decision and before contract expiration. While the market overwhelmingly expects the Fed to cut 25 bps, new data could change the expectations dramatically in the next four weeks. The most important data points are: • BLS Nonfarmed Payroll and Unemployment, November 1st • US Presidential Election, November 5th Separately, the next BLS CPI release will be on November 13th, after the BFF November 8th contract. We could use the BFF November 15th contract to trade on that event. As an educational writeup, I do not offer a personal view on the future direction of BFF prices. With basic information provided here, traders could apply their own view to set up a trade on BFF. Generally, if the Fed cuts rates in December, stocks and cryptocurrencies could get a lifting as lower rates reduce the cost of capital. Meanwhile, if the Fed pauses and decides on no-cuts, the uncertainty on interest rate trajectory could cause risk capital to fall. Happy Trading. Disclaimers *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
CME:MBT1!Long
by JimHuangChicago
4