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NQ1! trade ideas

#202509 - priceactiontds - weekly update - nasdaq e-miniGood Evening and I hope you are well. comment: My line in the sand for bears was 20600 and bears actually got there but the very bullish close on Friday destroyed many bear hopes. Biggest question for Monday is now, does the bear channel hold or will we strongly break above to test the highs again? I don’t know and that’s when I will lean neutral. Both sides have reasonable arguments and the bear channel is valid until clearly broken but Friday’s close was special. 20900 is probably a bad place to trade and I will be cautious on Monday. There are multiple bigger patterns we are currently in. Most recent is the tight bear channel down from last week, which would be broken above 21100. Then we are also inside an expanding triangle on the daily tf where the upper trend lines goes through the ath 22450. On the weekly tf I have two bull trend lines and both could be right or wrong, you never know. The lower one runs a bit below 20000 and that is obviously a magnet market will test over the next days or weeks but I have no idea if we do another leg up first. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 21000 - 22500 bull case: Bulls have probably seen enough selling and Friday’s close showed some strength that they want more exposure again. Their first target is 21000 and then break above the bear channel from last week, which would be above 21100ish. Next targets are then the mid point around 21500 and then likely no more resistance until 22000. Bullish ABC move on the chart, which would be my preferred path if we close above 21200 on Monday. Invalidation is below 20400. bear case: Bears want to see this as a W1 and get at least another strong leg down or even a third one. What are the odds of that? The last strong selling we had was 2024-07 where nq dropped for 16% over 5 weeks. So a long time ago where we did not correct for 10% or more. Right now we are down 8% in two weeks, which is the strongest selling we have seen in the past 7 months. Bears certainly would have a bit more room to the downside to touch 20000 or a bit lower to hit the bull trend line around 19800 (depending on how you draw it). I’m just having a really hard time believing this is more likely than a trade back up to at least 21500 since we are still inside the bull trend and two weeks ago we were 130 points below the ath. An expanding triangle is likely the more dominating feature for now. Every dip below 21000 has been bought and selling here has not been profitable for the past 2 months. Invalidation is above 21100. short term: Neutral. Tough spot. Bears could want more downside since the bear channel is still active until we break above 21100. Bulls see the expanding triangle and two weeks of selling with -8% was enough for them to strongly buy into Friday’s close. If 20k is now resistance, I’d like to short with a stop 21410 for target 20500 or lower. If bulls come out strongly early tomorrow, the 4h ema + bear channel could break and we would likely test the highs above 22000 again. medium-long term - Update from 2024-02-23: Neutral since we are in a 4-5 month trading range. Still leaning heavily bearish for this year but for now it’s sideways until we get consecutive daily closes below 20000. current swing trade: None chart update: Added possible paths for both sides. There is a very low chance that the past 2 weeks were the W1 of a very strong 5-wave series down but until we see daily closes below 20000, I have zero confidence in this.
CME_MINI:MNQ1!
by priceactiontds
Bullish Outlook going forward for NQNQ has pulled back and taken Feb. Monthly low as well as grabbing some additional liquidity from Nov. last year. I shorted NQ on Thursday for 473 points to my anticipated level of support. I nearly caught the bottom of the market, followed by an aggressive back move up to equilibrium to end the week. Going forward, with the high impact news coming up in the first 2 weeks of March, I see a bullish outlook and the potential for new ATH. Here is an idea of what I see playing out over the short-term.
CME_MINI:NQ1!Long
by WicksAndSticksTrading
NQ: 147th trading session - recapI'm posting this again pretty late but it doesn't matter since the markets aren't open over the weekends. I'm excited for the next week: I'm trying my first funded account + I have a 1 week break from school - so I can totally focus on trading, hell yeah Overall monthly recap: - not good, missed trading opportunities and the one's I took were bad. But I'm optimistic, I learned from these mistakes + I'll probably be very careful when real money is on the line.
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by GRBmlr
Mastering Elliott wave theory: Understanding market cyclesElliott Wave Theory is a powerful tool for predicting market movements by analyzing repetitive price patterns driven by investor psychology. The theory divides market trends into five impulsive waves (1-5) and three corrective waves (A-B-C). Let's break it down: 🔹 Impulse Waves (1-5) Wave 1: The start of the trend, usually fueled by early investors. Wave 2: A corrective pullback as traders take profit. Wave 3: The strongest wave, fueled by momentum and broad market participation. Wave 4: Another pullback, but shallower than Wave 2. Wave 5: The final move up, often driven by FOMO before a correction begins. 🔻 Corrective Waves (A-B-C) Wave A: The first decline as early traders exit positions. Wave B: A short-lived recovery as some traders think the trend will continue. Wave C: The final bearish wave, often deeper than Wave A, marking the end of the correction. Three Key Principles of Elliott Wave Theory ✔️ Wave 3 is never the shortest impulse wave. ✔️ Wave 2 never retraces past the start of Wave 1. ✔️ Wave 4 never overlaps with Wave 1. How to Use It? Traders use Elliott Waves to identify entry and exit points, confirming trends with indicators like Fibonacci retracements and RSI.
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by SmartSignalss
NQ Short (02-24-25)NQ 2/18 Post was playing off the Gap Fill & Drop (white arrow to the left). KL 20,695 just sticks out like "Turd in a Punchbowl", also near Box bottom. KL 21,400 is medium Danger Zone level and expect a U Turn should we get there, no U Turn then 20,695 express 1 way NAZ freight train (trains only go 1 way, Freight's move with heavy FORCE). Notice how many calls/moves are just common sense, predictable, cause effect, etc. No need to overthink this stuff or use fancy technical terms and Go Fed, BTD/FOMO Forever. All aboard the for the Ride.
CME_MINI:NQ1!Short
by MAZing
10
NQ Power Range Report with FIB Ext - 2/28/2025 SessionCME_MINI:NQH2025 - PR High: 20680.50 - PR Low: 20639.75 - NZ Spread: 91.25 Key scheduled economic events: 08:30 | Core PCE Price Index (MoM|YoY) 09:45 | Chicago PMI Strong selling pushed value below 3 month range - Advertising continued value decline - Key level 20800 - Holding auction above previous session close - Last trading day of the month (month end) Session Open Stats (As of 12:45 AM 2/28) - Weekend Gap: N/A - Gap 10/30/23 +0.47% - Session Open ATR: 390.33 - Volume: 61K - Open Int: 287K - Trend Grade: Bull - From BA ATH: -8.0% (Rounded) Key Levels (Rounded - Think of these as ranges) - Long: 22667 - Mid: 21525 - Short: 19814 Keep in mind this is not speculation or a prediction. Only a report of the Power Range with Fib extensions for target hunting. Do your DD! You determine your risk tolerance. You are fully capable of making your own decisions. BA: Back Adjusted BuZ/BeZ: Bull Zone / Bear Zone NZ: Neutral Zone
CME_MINI:NQH2025Short
by mv3trader5
2025-02-27 - priceactiontds - daily update - nasdaqGood Evening and I hope you are well. comment: Bears showed strength once again and we have made new lows. Now comes the most important part tomorrow. They need a very strong monthly close below 20600 to close below the January low. Bulls want any close closer to 21000. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 21000 - 21700 bull case: Bulls see this as the climactic ending on the 4h tf after 3 legs down. They now want to close the month more neutral around 21000 and most likely above. They probably are beginning to scale into longs again since 6 consecutive red days are so unusual, that the odds of a decent pull-back are good. We are also around 300 points away from the big bull trend line and there is absolutely no reason why this should break on the next hit. If we stay above 20500, I favor the bulls for a bounce up to 20800 or 21000 before I turn full bear again. Invalidation is below 20500. bear case: Bears are overdoing it and they could get squeezed tomorrow. Bounces this week were between 200-400 points and that would bring us to 21000 where I expect another strong try down by the bears. If we even get there. Bears want to keep this max bearish and continue with the 15m 20ema being resistance. Today’s selling was strong enough that we could potentially reach 20000 tomorrow but it’s far. We have two bear channels now. One you can see on my 4h chart and then another on the 15m or 1h chart. The smaller one has to stay intact if bears want another big bear day tomorrow. Invalidation is above 21100. short term: Need a bounce to sell this. Monthly close around 20000 is possible but bulls have been buying new lows all week and we should hit at least 20800 or even 21k. But there I do think we will close this month at the lows and hopefully below 20500. medium-long term - Update from 2024-02-23: Neutral since we are in a 4-5 month trading range. Still leaning heavily bearish for this year but for now it’s sideways until we get consecutive daily closes below 20000. trade of the day: Selling on the open was strong enough to expect the gap close down to 21200. We did more but 21000 was expected to be huge support. The second leg down started slow and accelerated. Where should you have shorted on the second leg? Market failed exactly at the 15m 20ema and after the third consecutive and increasing in size - bear bar, shorts were necessary. Could you have known the extend of the sell-off? Never while it’s happening but you should keep runners and hope to catch such a 400 point move down.
CME_MINI:MNQ1!Long
by priceactiontds
SMT Divergence NQ and ESWe're at a critical juncture in the markets right now. The recent price action has brought us into key demand zones, and we are seeing signs of potential bullish divergence between indices. One market has swept liquidity while the other is holding higher lows—classic SMT divergence. The daily FVG levels are now being tested, and if buyers step in here, we could see a strong reaction. This is an area where liquidity and previous structure align, making it a prime spot for a bounce. A confirmation candle or a reclaim of key levels would strengthen the bullish case. Patience is key. If the market holds this level and starts pushing up with conviction, we could be looking at a solid reversal play. Keep an eye on intraday reactions and liquidity grabs—this is where the next move will be decided. Stay sharp. Lord Medz
CME_MINI:NQ1!Long
by Skinwah
2.27.25 Continuation showing reversal trade (Pt.4)Forex, Crypto and Futures Trading Risk Disclosure: The National Futures Association (NFA) and Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), the regulatory agencies for the forex and futures markets in the United States, require that customers be informed about potential risks in trading these markets. If you do not fully understand the risks, please seek advice from an independent financial advisor before engaging in trading. Trading forex and futures on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to trade, you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. There is a possibility of losing some or all of your initial investment, and therefore, you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. Be aware of the risks associated with leveraged trading and seek professional advice if necessary. BDRipTrades Market Opinions (also applies to BDelCiel and Aligned & Wealthy LLC): Any opinions, news, research, analysis, prices, or other information contained in my content (including live streams, videos, and posts) are provided as general market commentary only and do not constitute investment advice. BDRipTrades, BDelCiel, and Aligned & Wealthy LLC will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including but not limited to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from the use of or reliance on such information. Accuracy of Information: The content I provide is subject to change at any time without notice and is intended solely for educational and informational purposes. While I strive for accuracy, I do not guarantee the completeness or reliability of any information. I am not responsible for any losses incurred due to reliance on any information shared through my platforms. Government-Required Risk Disclaimer and Disclosure Statement: CFTC RULE 4.41 - HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN. Performance results discussed in my content are hypothetical and subject to limitations. There are frequently sharp differences between hypothetical performance results and the actual results subsequently achieved by any particular trading strategy. One of the limitations of hypothetical trading results is that they do not account for real-world financial risk. Furthermore, past performance of any trading system or strategy does not guarantee future results. General Trading Disclaimer: Trading in futures, forex, and other leveraged products involves substantial risk and is not appropriate for all investors. Do not trade with money you cannot afford to lose. I do not provide buy/sell signals, financial advice, or investment recommendations. Any decisions you make based on my content are solely your responsibility. By engaging with my content, including live streams, videos, educational materials, and any communication through my platforms, you acknowledge and accept that all trading decisions you make are at your own risk. BDRipTrades, BDelCiel, and Aligned & Wealthy LLC cannot and will not be held responsible for any trading losses you may incur.
CME_MINI:MNQH2025Short
by BDripTradess
Mastering Fibonacci Retracement: Spotting Key Market Levels! Fibonacci retracement is one of the most powerful tools traders use to identify potential support and resistance levels in trending markets. These levels, derived from the Fibonacci sequence, help predict where price pullbacks might end before the trend resumes. How Does It Work? 1- Identify a strong move (trend direction). In this case, we see an uptrend after a sharp decline. 2- Apply the Fibonacci retracement tool from swing low to swing high to map key levels. 3- Watch how price reacts at important retracement levels: 🔸 0.236 (23.6%) – Weak retracement, minor support/resistance. 🔸 0.382 (38.2%) & 0.5 (50%) – Moderate pullback, potential reversal zones. 🔸 0.618 (61.8%) – The Golden Ratio, often a strong level for trend continuation. 🔸 0.786 (78.6%) – Deeper retracement, last defense before a reversal. How to Use It for Trading? - Look for buying opportunities at the 0.5 or 0.618 retracement if price finds support. - Watch for resistance near 0.382 or 0.5 in a downtrend. - Combine Fibonacci with candlestick patterns, volume, or indicators (RSI, MACD) for confirmation. In this chart, we see price bouncing from the Fibonacci levels, showing how these zones act as potential support and resistance!
CME_MINI:NQ1!Long
by SmartSignalss