#202516 - priceactiontds - weekly update - wti crude oilGood Evening and I hope you are well.
comment: Expanding triangles are my least favorite structure and we are in one. I have no bias here because both sides have reasonable arguments. Bulls just want this selling to become a bear trap and test up to the upper bear trend line around 69 and bears can see it as a bear flag that tested the 50% retracement of this bear leg.
current market cycle: trading range on the monthly chart - daily chart is a bear trend that could be transitioning into a trading range again
key levels: 55 - 69
bull case: Bulls see it as a failed acceleration down and want to retest the prior bear trend line around 68. Same target as last week but this week they closed the weekly bar above 64 which was my line in the sand. If they continue here, they will likely squeeze much higher again. 69 next target.
Invalidation is below 60.
bear case: I give the bears one more day to form a strong reversal but the odds are low. This breakout could go much higher and Friday looks like a give-up bar. Argument for the bears is that we are still at the 50% retracement and the breakout-retest of the March low 64. Any prices above 64.2 is invalidation for the bears. I will only view this as bearish again, if bears break the bull trend line from the 54.48 low and that’s currently around 61.
Invalidation is above 64.2.
short term: Neutral at 64. Above 64.2 bullish and only below 61 I think bears have taken control again.
medium-long term - Update from 2025-04-20: This does look like another bear trap below 60, which was to be expected. Depending on next week I will write some more here. For now It’s still a bear trend until bulls can reclaim 72.
