DXY (LONG)
Inverse Head and Shoulders pattern
Which Serves as reversal pattern
Dollar strength coming
USXUSD trade ideas
USDX-BUY straegy Daily chart Regression channelThe USDX shows clearly we should be cautious in selling USD, and this applies across the board. Based on channel and the extreme case we are in, we can bounced back ttowards 101.20-101.70 area in the near term.
Strategy BUY @ 97.80 - 98.20 and take proft in stages 1. @ 100.37 and 2. 101.57.
DXY Forecast: More Bearish OrderflowThis week, I anticipate further downside movement on the DXY, with price potentially reaching a key area of interest—a bullish order block. While the reaction at this level remains uncertain, my current bias remains bearish unless a break of structure to the upside signals a continuation of the bullish trend.
USD StrengthGiven the current technical indicators and fundamental backdrop, the DXY may continue to face downward pressure in the short term. However, strong economic fundamentals and potential shifts in Federal Reserve policy could provide support, leading to a stabilization or potential rebound.
DXY Bullish Breakout Within Ascending ChannelThis 4-hour chart of the US Dollar Index (DXY) shows price trading within an ascending channel, currently testing a resistance zone around 100.50–100.80. If the resistance holds, a pullback to the lower boundary of the channel or the highlighted retest zone near 99.50 is possible. However, a breakout above resistance may lead to further bullish continuation toward the marked 1st and 2nd target zones above 101. The chart also highlights recent change-of-character (ChoCH) signals, suggesting a shift toward bullish momentum.
TP1 (1st Target): Around 100.85 – 101.00 — just above the current resistance zone.
TP2 (2nd Target): Around 101.40 – 101.50 — the upper boundary of the ascending channel.
Note: If the market does not retest and breaks directly above the resistance zone, we will enter a buy position on the breakout and aim for targets at 100.85 (TP1) and 101.50 (TP2).
Price Action + Fundamentals Point to Dollar StrengthThe current market environment presents compelling evidence for a bullish move in the US Dollar Index (DXY). While some patience is required, the setup is increasingly favorable for the dollar to appreciate in the coming weeks and months.
Key Factors Supporting a Bullish Move:
Monthly Close Above 100.160:
A critical technical level to monitor is the monthly close above 100.160. If achieved, it would signal a strong bullish breakout, setting the stage for a continuation higher. Given current price action and market dynamics, this scenario looks highly probable. However, if the price fails to close above 100.160 and instead breaks below it, we could potentially start looking for short opportunities.
Bond Market Strength (30Y, 10Y, 5Y):
This past week, we witnessed notable strength across the US bond market. Yields declined as prices rose, typically a positive signal for the dollar as it reflects capital inflows into US assets.
COT Report Insights:
The Commitment of Traders (COT) report reveals a critical shift: commercial traders, often considered the "smart money," are beginning to accumulate long positions in the dollar. This change in positioning historically precedes significant bullish moves.
Seasonal Patterns:
Seasonality also favors the dollar during this period. Historically, the dollar tends to strengthen in the mid-year months, aligning perfectly with the current technical and fundamental landscape.
Targets:
Initial Target: 106.120
Given the accumulation signs and supportive macro backdrop, a move towards 106.120 seems very realistic.
Review and plan for 2nd May 2025Nifty future and banknifty future analysis and intraday plan.
Quarterly results.
This video is for information/education purpose only. you are 100% responsible for any actions you take by reading/viewing this post.
please consult your financial advisor before taking any action.
----Vinaykumar hiremath, CMT
DOLLAR DOLLAR ,the double bottom reversal of gold is showing demand to reclaim the 100 mark,if it stays above this zone we could see a strong bullish kick.
DXYIf we look at nature's theory , we can define see that the impulsive phase is to the upside and the market corrects to the down side.
We have a clear uptrend with 2 confirmed touches and now anticipating a bullish impulse on the third touch
The third touch is also a third touch of a pattern with 2 confirmed touches waiting for the final touch to go
Multiple confirmations
USDINDEX BUY LONGAll other pairss could follow this. But it's the end of the month, and many banks have holidays tomorrow. NFP on Friday...
Anything is possible.
USD - Early Stages of a Low?The FOMC rate decision next week will likely have some pull on the matter but for now, the US Dollar is working on its second consecutive green week for the first time since the high in January. Resistance has so far held at last year's swing low of 100.22 but bulls put in some push over the past week and it seems unlikely that the Fed will suddenly go dovish given the overhang of tariff uncertainty.
Notably, the oversold RSI reading on the weekly has started to rectify with the indicator crossing up and over the 30-level. - js
DXY Technical Analysis – Bearish BiasDXY Technical Analysis – Bearish Bias
Market Structure: The price attempted a recovery but failed to break above a strong supply/resistance zone around 99.30–99.40.
Price Action: A rounded bottom (U-shape) move formed, but instead of continuation, the price rejected the resistance and started to fall.
DOLLARDXY and Bond Yield Correlation: Key Dynamics in 2025
Core Relationship
The US Dollar Index (DXY) and US 10-Year Treasury yields exhibit a positive correlation, driven by shared sensitivity to Federal Reserve policy, inflation expectations, and global risk sentiment.
Fed Rate Hikes Strengthens USD (DXY ↑) and pushes yields higher
Strong US Growth Bolsters USD and raises yields via inflation risks
Risk-On Sentiment Weakens USD and lowers yields as capital flows to riskier assets
Inflation Fears Raises yields but may not always lift USD if growth concerns dominate
Current Correlation Metrics (2025)
DXY and 10-Year Yield Correlation: Historically positive, with recent coefficients ranging from +0.50 to +0.93 depending on market conditions.
USD/JPY and Yields: Extreme correlation of +0.93 in 2025, reflecting synchronized moves between the dollar and yields.
Key Drivers in 2025
Monetary Policy:
The Fed’s restrictive stance (4.50% rate) supports both USD and yields, but delayed cuts and tariff-induced inflation risks create volatility.
ECB and BoJ dovishness amplifies USD strength, reinforcing the correlation.
Economic Data:
Robust US GDP growth (0.4% Q1 2025) and sticky inflation (2.1% in Germany) keep yields elevated, supporting DXY.
Weakness in global markets (e.g., China, EU) drives safe-haven flows into USD and Treasuries, complicating the correlation.
Fiscal and Geopolitical Risks:
US fiscal deficit concerns and trade tensions (e.g., U.S.-China tariffs) threaten to decouple DXY from yields. For example, rising yields due to debt supply fears may coincide with USD weakness if investors flee US assets.
Bond market turbulence (10-Year yields at 4.47% in April 2025) highlights sensitivity to foreign demand and leverage unwinds.
Exceptions and Divergences
Risk-Off Scenarios: In crises, investors may buy both Treasuries (lowering yields) and USD, creating a temporary negative correlation.
De-Dollarization Fears: Structural shifts, such as reduced foreign appetite for US debt, could weaken the link between DXY and yields despite high rates.
2025 Outlook
Yield Range: Expected to stabilize between 4%–5%, supporting a firm USD if Fed policy remains hawkish.
DXY Trajectory: Faces headwinds from fiscal risks and tariffs but could rebound if global growth slows and US data stays resilient.
Summary Table
Correlation Positive (DXY ↑ as yields ↑), but context-dependent
Fed Policy Primary driver; higher rates lift both DXY and yields
Inflation Supports yields, but may weaken USD if growth falters
Global Risk Risk-off flows can strengthen USD while lowering yields
2025 Risks Fiscal deficits, tariffs, and de-dollarization may disrupt correlation
In conclusion, while DXY and bond yields generally move in tandem, 2025’s unique mix of monetary policy, fiscal strains, and geopolitical shifts introduces volatility. Traders should monitor Fed rhetoric, inflation data, and global risk appetite for directional cues.
USD Is Bullish Short Term. Short The Majors! This is the FOREX outlook for the week of April 28 - May 2nd.
In this video, we will analyze the following FX markets:
USD Index
EUR
GBP
AUD
NZD
CAD, USDCAD
CHF, USDCHF
JPY, USDJPY
The USD Index is heading up towards a bearish FVG. The EURUSD, GBPUSD, and the other Major pairs will be pulled down by this price action .... until the USD hits it's POI. Then things will get interesting!
Take advantage of the USD push higher!
Remember, NFP is Friday! Be careful of wonky price action on Thursday and Friday.
Enjoy!
May profits be upon you.
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DXY Bullish Based on price Action, this is a swing long with a 1:4 RR
Target is there as we have pending buy side liquidity that was left for future run
US Dollar Bulls Return Ahead of NFPsThe US Dollar is testing resistance today at the 2023 / 2024 low day closes (LDC) at 99.95-100.42- looking for possible infection off this mark in the days ahead.
A closer look at USD price action shows the index trading into the resistance at the median-line in early U.S. trade. A topside breach above this threshold is needed to validate a breakout of the weekly opening-range with subsequent resistance see at the September high-day close (HDC) / September high at 101.77/92. Note that channel resistance converges on this threshold over the next few weeks and a breach / close above this slope would be needed to suggest a more significant low was registered last week / a larger reversal is underway. Subsequent resistance eyed at the 2016 high-close / 2020 high at 102.95/99 and the 2023 yearly open at 103.49.
Key support remains unchanged at the 2018 swing high / 61.8% retracement of the 2018 advance at 97.71-98.39- a close below this threshold would threaten another bout of accelerated USD losses with subsequent support seen at the 96-handle, the 2022 LDC at 95.17 and the March 2020 low at 94.65.
A rebound off key support takes the U.S. Dollar into initial resistance with major event risk on tap tomorrow. From a trading standpoint, losses should be limited to this week’s low IF price is heading higher on this stretch with a breach above 100.42 needed to fuel the next leg of the recovery.
-MB
DXY Analysis: Head & Shoulders or a Bull Trap? Despite a notable contraction in U.S. GDP and a sharp drop in Core PCE — both pointing to increasing recession risk — the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) managed to sustain its rebound.
On the 4-hour chart, DXY is pushing above the neckline of an inverted head-and-shoulders formation. However, confirmation is still needed — a clean hold above 100.30 is essential to avoid a bull trap.
Upside Levels in Sight (if 100.30 holds):101.30 - 102.00 - 103.50
Downside Risk (if neckline fails):99.30 - 98.90 - 98.00
From a monthly perspective, DXY is holding above the 98 support and remains above the lower border of the up-trending channel extending from the 2008 lows, paving the way for another possible drop this year towards that border should the 98-support be decisively breached.
From a daily momentum perspective, the overall picture may signal a short-term trend reset before markets regain directional clarity
Written by Razan Hilal, CMT
Viper Sunday Weekly forecast call. NFP week!On Sunday's we review the markets and look at structure, trends and Candle charts to see what possibly could happen in the week ahead. With a Pullback last week, the markets look poised to have a stronger week leading into NFP.
We cover US30, NAS100, Gold, Oil and Forex pairs. As well as DXY.
Trade carefully, always use proper risk management and this video contains no trade calls or expected results. It is for education purposes only.
DOLLARThe U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) is currently in a bearish phase, trading near 98.93 as of late April 2025, down from 99.71 earlier in the month. Key drivers include:
Political Uncertainty: Trump’s tariff policies (e.g., 25% levies on auto/semiconductor imports) and trade tensions have eroded the dollar’s safe-haven appeal, despite initial short-lived gains.
Fed Policy Expectations: Markets anticipate Fed rate cuts in 2025 if inflation cools, weakening the dollar. The Fed’s cautious stance in recent minutes has reinforced this outlook
Rising Treasury yields reflect inflation concerns and foreign selling, yet the DXY has weakened due to political risks and growth fears.
Basis trades (exploiting price gaps between Treasuries and derivatives) have amplified volatility, with an estimated $800B– MIL:1T at stake.
Divergence Signals:
The DXY-Treasury spread (usually correlated) has diverged, suggesting markets doubt the Fed’s ability to sustain higher rates despite sticky inflation. This divergence often precedes shifts in risk asset pricing.
Fed Policy Impact:
Fed minutes emphasize data dependency, delaying rate cuts until inflation eases convincingly. However, bond markets are pricing in 1–2 cuts by year-end, weakening the dollar.
Outlook and Critical Levels
Bond Yields: Likely to stabilize near 4.5% for 10-year Treasuries if inflation moderates, but geopolitical risks and tariff escalation could drive further volatility.
Conclusion
The DXY’s bearish bias persists amid political uncertainty and Fed dovishness, while bond markets face turbulence from inflation and foreign capital flows. Traders should monitor:
Fed rhetoric and U.S. inflation data (core PCE, CPI).
Geopolitical developments (U.S.-China trade talks, tariff adjustments).
This interplay suggests continued volatility, with the DXY likely to underperform unless Fed policy or risk sentiment shifts abruptly.
IMP update for all Forex Traders Expect the Dollar Index (DXY) to appreciate in the near future. However, a further decline into the green highlighted region is possible before this upward movement. The green zone represents a potential key reversal area. Monitor the following currency pairs for trading opportunities if the DXY begins to climb:
BUY - USDCAD, USDCHF, USDSGD;
SELL - EURUSD, GBPUSD
$USD Breaks Down – “Mission Accomplished” or Just Getting📉 The US Dollar Index ( AMEX:USD / TVC:DXY / $USINDEX) has officially broken beneath the multi-year support zone from 2020, right as Trump prepares to declare "Mission Accomplished".
From Inauguration to Liberation Day, and now the final stage: Meltdown.
🧭 Key Events Marked:
🟥 Inauguration
🟥 Trade War
🟥 Liberation Day
🟩 Mission Accomplished
🔻 Meltdown incoming?
📊 The breakdown aligns with a sharp spike in Nasdaq down volume (see chart). This isn't just a currency move — it's a market-wide stress signal.
Watch closely:
TVC:DXY below 99 = structural weakness.
Risk-on assets may melt up temporarily, but volatility could snap back fast.
Global currency pairs ( FX:EURUSD , FX:USDJPY , FX:GBPUSD ) are all on alert.
DXY: Will Go Up! Long!
My dear friends,
Today we will analyse DXY together☺️
The market is at an inflection zone and price has now reached an area around 98.933 where previous reversals or breakouts have occurred.And a price reaction that we are seeing on multiple timeframes here could signal the next move up so we can enter on confirmation, and target the next key level of 99.097.Stop-loss is recommended beyond the inflection zone.
❤️Sending you lots of Love and Hugs❤️
Heading into pullback resistance?US Dollar Index (DXY) is rising towards the pivot which is a pullback resistance and could reverse to the 1st support which acts as a pullback support.
Pivot: 100.27
1st Support: 98.32
1st Resistance: 101.77
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