Gold range shock , Both long and short have a chance!📌Fundamentals:
1. There are signs of escalation in the India-Pakistan conflict
2. The US-Houthi ceasefire agreement
3. The Fed's interest rate decision dominates this week's market
4. The international trade situation disturbs market sentiment
5. Market sentiment and capital flows
📊Technical aspects:
The market came out in the Asian session. It stalled again later. We are used to seeing fluctuations of hundreds of points. A fluctuation of more than ten or twenty points a day is the same as no fluctuation. At present, the market is temporarily maintained in the range of 3400-3360, and there is not much fluctuation. At present, let's see where the market breaks through. If it retreats to around 3360, follow up with long orders. If it rebounds to around 3400, follow up with short orders.
GOLD.PRO.OTMS trade ideas
Lingrid | GOLD Weekly Analysis: CORRECTIVE Phase after the SurgeOANDA:XAUUSD market initially rallied during the week, reaching the key 3500 level. However, we have a corrective move, showing a bit of profit taking as traders are looking to the tariff noise for direction. The market made a sharp decline resulting in a long-tailed bearish bar on the weekly timeframe, suggesting the price may continue pushing lower toward the 3150 support levels. The price shows similar price action to what we saw at the beginning of this month when a market decline was followed by a week of sideways movement, which then led to continuation of the bullish trend.
I think we might see 2 scenarios to identify the potential endpoint of this corrective move. On the daily timeframe, the price is near the 50% retracement of the bullish swing move, which may be a potential level for continuation. The second scenario is an ABCD pullback where price dips below the 3200 level to find support. In any case, we should react to the price action and how it develops. If the Monday candle gaps up, this potentially indicates that price may move higher. And if we get a gap down, then we can expect a deeper pullback in the market.
Traders, if you liked this idea or if you have your own opinion about it, write in the comments. I will be glad 👩💻
Analysis of Gold's Trend and Trading Suggestions for Next WeekAfter the release of the non-farm payrolls data, the market reacted quickly but showed a divergent trend, bringing a short-term boost to market confidence. However, the downward revision of historical data and external uncertainties still keep investors cautious. In the short term, risky assets may still have some room for growth, but in the medium to long term, downward risks are gradually accumulating.
From a technical perspective, in the 1-hour K-line chart of gold, the moving average system shows an obvious bearish arrangement with a death cross pointing downward, and each moving average continues to diverge downward, indicating that the short-term bearish force is dominant. Currently, the gold price is falling back under the pressure at the level of 3,270. Judging from the subsequent trend, around 3,270 will become a key turning point in the battle between bulls and bears for gold next week.
Although there has been a rebound in the price of gold, the rebound range is relatively limited compared to the previous decline, which further shows that the bullish force has not fully taken the upper hand. If the gold price continues to be under pressure at the level of 3,270 and fails to break through effectively next week, the market is likely to continue in a range-bound pattern. In the short term, it will be difficult for the bulls in the gold market to achieve a trend reversal. Investors need to pay close attention to the breakthrough situation of this key price level and the changes in trading volume to grasp the subsequent market trend.
XAUUSD
sell@3255-3265
tp:3240-3220
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The latest gold strategy analysis and operation guidance📌Fundamentals:
This week, the US economic data was released intensively, and ADP employment, unemployment benefits, GDP and PCE price index were all bullish, but some data showed signs of weakness after Trump's tariff policy. The unemployment rate remained the same as the previous value of 4.2%, while the expected new employment of 130,000 was significantly lower than the previous value of 228,000. The market's concerns about the cooling of the economy provided support for the gold price.
📊Technical side:
Although the 1-hour moving average is still in a dead cross short arrangement, there are signs of turning around. At the same time, after the rebound, gold began to consolidate at a high level instead of continuing to fall, so the momentum of the bears was weakened. So today's closing is critical. Today, gold fell back to around 3230 under pressure from 3270. In the short term, this is a balance range. You can see the shock in this range at night. If gold finally closes above 3270, then gold will most likely continue to rise next week. If it closes below 3240, then gold bears still have a great chance. If you want to operate in the short term, then don't chase it for the time being. Since it is a shock, you can go short first at a high level. If it breaks through 3270, then wait until next week. On the whole, today's short-term operation of gold suggests that the rebound is mainly short, and the callback is supplemented by long. The top short-term focus is on the first-line resistance of 3265-3270, and the bottom short-term focus is on the first-line support of 3200-3197.
🎯Practical strategies:
Strategy 1: Go short when gold rebounds around 3263-3266, with a target around 3230-3210.
Strategy 2: Go long when gold pulls back around 3197-3200, with a target around 3220-3230.
Thinking and practical skills for winning in the 3360-3400 rangeAffected by the news, gold fell sharply at the opening. Successfully won. According to the trading strategy, we gave gold a wide range of fluctuations in the 3360-3400 range, which will not change much. It can be operated within the range during the day. The trading strategy analysis is accurate, and the key points are accurately grasped to enter the market, which brought us good returns during the day. The short-term rhythm is accurately grasped! Brothers who followed the trading plan should have also made very good profits. 🍻🍻🍻
GOLD 4H CHART ROUTE MAP UPDATE & TRADING PLAN FOR THE WEEKHey Everyone,
Please see our updated 4h chart levels and targets for the coming week.
We are seeing price play between two weighted levels with a gap above at 3343 and a gap below at 3282. We will need to see ema5 cross and lock on either weighted level to determine the next range. We have a bigger range in play then usual.
We will see levels tested side by side until one of the weighted levels break and lock to confirm direction for the next range.
We will keep the above in mind when taking buys from dips. Our updated levels and weighted levels will allow us to track the movement down and then catch bounces up.
We will continue to buy dips using our support levels taking 30 to 40 pips. As stated before each of our level structures give 20 to 40 pip bounces, which is enough for a nice entry and exit. If you back test the levels we shared every week for the past 24 months, you can see how effectively they were used to trade with or against short/mid term swings and trends.
BULLISH TARGET
3343
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 3343 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET
3404
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 3404 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET
3439
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 3439 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET
3503
BEARISH TARGETS
3282
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 3282 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BEARISH TARGET
3224
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 3224 WILL OPEN THE SWING RANGE
SWING RANGE
3190 - 3138
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 3138 WILL OPEN THE SECONDARY SWING RANGE
SECONDARY SWING RANGE
3088 - 3046
As always, we will keep you all updated with regular updates throughout the week and how we manage the active ideas and setups. Thank you all for your likes, comments and follows, we really appreciate it!
Mr Gold
GoldViewFX
XAUUSD SellThere is a good zone for a sell trade on XAUUSD. This is one of our favorite types of setups—small loss zone and wide TP area, making it an ideal trade. You can activate the trade at the 3229.91 level.
The TP target will be 3208.20 and the SL level will be 3234.71.
🔔 I post detailed trade ideas and daily market analysis like this every day on my TradingView profile.
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Gold continued to rise at the opening and broke upward!At present, the 4-hour chart of gold has formed an upward breakout trend. The decline may be over, and it will continue to strengthen! In the intraday, we focus on the 3200-line long-short watershed. Before gold falls further, gold will maintain a bullish trend. In the day, we focus on the recent starting point of 3222 support. If gold wants to go out of a steady upward trend, it will not fall below 3222 in the day. In the short term, we refer to the points above 3222 to arrange long positions! Therefore, in terms of operation, it is recommended to adjust the thinking, go long if it falls back to 3240-3245, or directly chase the rise after breaking through 3270. At present, it has been long at 3243 in the early trading. If there is no more decline, continue to go long! Identify the bulls during the day! On the whole, it is recommended to do more on the callback and short on the rebound in the short-term operation of gold. Focus on the resistance of 3300-3310 in the upper short term, and focus on the support of 3222-3245 in the lower short term.
Gold intraday trading strategyGold operation strategy:
1. Go short at 3270-75 when gold rebounds, and cover short at 3388-93 when it rebounds, stop loss at 3397, target at 3230-3235, and continue to hold if it breaks;
2. Go long at 3220-3225 when gold falls back, stop loss at 3214, target at 3265-70, and continue to hold if it breaks;
Today's rebound continues to be short!The logic behind the current rise and fall of gold has changed. The main factors for the previous crazy rise in gold and the decline at 3,500 were the tariff war, which has gradually turned from tension to relaxation. The latest news shows that the two sides are trying to contact each other to prepare for the next round of negotiations.
Later, we should focus on the Federal Reserve. Trump previously asked the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates to reduce the impact of the tariff war on the economy. Powell's resistance once made Trump want to change the chairman of the Federal Reserve. The big non-agricultural data on Friday was better than expected, which means that the time for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates will be delayed, which is bad for the gold market. Therefore, gold may fall further at the beginning of next week.
On the other hand, after the world's largest gold ETF reduced its positions significantly since the peak of 3,500 on April 22, it has continued to reduce its positions slightly during this period, and there has been no obvious increase in positions, which reflects that gold has further bottoming out.
The daily line on Friday closed with a cross K, following three consecutive negatives. From a technical point of view, it is either a signal of continued decline or a reversal. Combined with the news data and the overall trend, the probability of continued decline is very high.
On the one hand, the rebound strength on the hourly and 4-hour charts is not strong, and the upward continuity is poor. The 100-day moving average is always under pressure to fall, and the trend is still bearish.
On the other hand, the adjustment on the daily and weekly lines has not yet ended, and the indicators show that there is still further decline. Next week, we should focus on the 618 golden section position of 3160. As for whether it can be the bottom position, in addition to the price point, it is also necessary to consider the K-line pattern comprehensively. We will talk about it next week.
Therefore, for gold on Monday, we can rely on the 3264-3268 line of pressure to continue shorting, and the limit of the pullback cannot exceed the 618 position of 3275, which is the watershed. The support below is 3222-3224, and if it breaks, it will hit the low point of 3201-3202, which may not be maintained.
Gold (XAU/USD) Bearish Continuation Within Descending ChannelThis chart shows XAU/USD (Gold vs. USD) trading within a clear descending channel. Price recently broke below a key support level, signaling bearish momentum. A potential retest of the broken support (now resistance) is expected before further downside continuation. The chart outlines two bearish targets: the first around 3,193 and the second near 3,100. If the retest fails and sellers step in, the downtrend is likely to continue toward those targets.
Gold prices continue to riseDuring the North American session, spot gold prices rose close to the $3,400 mark, hitting a recent high, and market analysis showed that gold bulls seemed to have regained control of price movements. Global geopolitical tensions continue to drive demand for safe-haven assets, and the Fed's interest rate decision on Wednesday will be a key factor affecting gold prices. Data shows that market participants currently expect the Fed to keep interest rates unchanged with a probability of 98.1%. As a result, the market's focus has shifted to the Fed's statement and Powell's subsequent press conference. If the Fed takes a more "dovish" stance, suggesting that interest rates may be cut in the near term, it may put pressure on the US dollar and may support higher prices for precious metals. On the other hand, if the Fed expresses its willingness to continue to keep interest rates unchanged, it may have the opposite effect on gold prices, with the US dollar likely to strengthen and gold prices under pressure.
Will the price of gold continue to rise?The pressure position on the 44-hour chart is around 3270-3280, which becomes an important dividing point for intraday short-term trading. In the intraday trading, we focus on the 3200-line long-short watershed. Before gold falls further and breaks through, gold will maintain a bullish trend. In the intraday trading, we focus on the recent starting point of 3222 support. If gold wants to move steadily upward, it will not fall below 3222 in the day. In the short term, we refer to the points above 3222 to arrange long positions! Gold operation strategy: Gold falls back to 3230-3232, stop loss at 3220, target 3260-3270; it is recommended to go short when it touches 3270-3268, stop loss at 3280, target 3240-3230;
Gold update next weekI really wanted to sell at a higher price.
But the selling pressure was very strong, not overcoming the resistance, so I came up with a new strategy to sell gold at a lower price. Do you have any other ideas? Leave a comment.
Limit sell 3255 sl65
Limit sell 3272 sl 82 ( fake break)
Take profit 3178- 3070
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Limit buy 3070
SL 3048.5 TP 3178
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Limit buy 2994- 2982
SL 2972 TP 3090- 3170
GOLD : Intraday Bearish SignalThe price of 📉GOLD is likely to keep falling, following a significant downward trend.
After consolidating within a horizontal range on a 4-hour time frame, the support of the range was recently broken, signaling strong selling pressure and a probable continuation of the bearish trend.
It is possible that the pair will soon reach the 3200 support level.
move below 3273-3270 zone and wait for reaction from US NF news🔔🔔🔔 Gold news:
➡️ Gold prices are holding modest gains heading into the European session, though bullish conviction remains lacking, and the metal continues to trade below the key $3,265–$3,2703 support-turned-resistance zone. Meanwhile, the US dollar has come under some selling pressure, snapping a three-day winning streak after hitting a three-week high.
➡️ A mix of factors is discouraging traders from making aggressive bullish bets, thereby capping further upside in the precious metal. Investors remain hopeful for easing trade tensions between the United States and China—the world’s two largest economies. This optimism supports a broader risk-on sentiment, which in turn undermines demand for safe-haven assets like gold.
Personal opinion:
➡️ The 3265–3273 zone is a strong resistance zone for gold. A break above this zone would mean the end of the short-term downtrend and vice versa. Therefore, buyers and sellers will be aggressive to secure this zone. Today's US NF news will be a strong driving force for gold prices before the tariff information appears and covers the market.
➡️ Analysis based on resistance - support levels and trend lines combined with EMA to come up with a suitable strategy
Personal Plan:
🔆Price Zone Setup:
👉Buy Gold 3202- 3205
❌SL: 3198 | ✅TP: 3210 - 3215 – 3220
👉Sell Gold 3270 - 3272
❌SL: 3276 | ✅TP: 3266 - 3261 – 3255
FM wishes you a successful trading day 💰💰💰
Bearish and bullish possibility The market created a 4h descending triangle and it broke out and retested but now it seems to be creating an ascending triangle pattern below, if the descending triangle plays out we could see the market reach within the weekly fvg at the 3185 area which will present buying opportunities and if the ascending triangle plays out we could reach the 3387 area, overall we just have to wait and react accordingly
( Gold ) Bearish Reversal Setup via Head and Shoulders Pattern Gold is showing signs of a potential short-term bearish reversal as a clear Head and Shoulders pattern has formed on the 30-minute chart. The price is testing the neckline near 3394, where a breakdown could trigger a move toward the 3330–3320 support zone.
🔍 Technical Analysis:
Pattern: Classic Head and Shoulders, indicating a possible shift in market structure.
Neckline level: Around 3394 – a break below confirms the pattern.
Indicator. Price is testing the lower boundary of the cloud; a clean break through supports the bearish case.
Volume Observation: Decreasing volume on right shoulder, suggesting buying momentum is fading.
Bearish Targets: Projected move based on pattern structure points toward 3330–3320.
🧠 Fundamental Backdrop:
U.S. Dollar Strength: Recent hawkish Fed comments and stronger-than-expected U.S. economic data are boosting the USD, putting pressure on gold prices.
Interest Rate Outlook: Rising yields are reducing gold’s appeal as a non-yielding asset.
Geopolitical Calm: Lack of fresh geopolitical tensions reduces safe-haven demand temporarily.
Inflation Outlook: Stabilizing inflation may also reduce urgency for gold hedging.
💡 Trade Plan:
Short Entry: 3394 (after neckline break confirmation)
Target Zone: 3330–3320
Stop Loss: Above 3410
Risk-Reward Ratio: ~2:1 depending on final entry/exit points
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📌 Note: Wait for confirmation with a strong candle close below the neckline and increased volume before entering the trade. This is not financial advice. Please conduct your own research and manage risk accordingly.
Final Leg of Wave 4 Before Wave 5 RallyGold (XAUUSD) is forming a textbook impulsive Elliott Wave structure on the 1-hour chart.
Wave 3 peaked around 3,131 USD, followed by a corrective Wave 4 currently in progress.
Substructure shows wave (iii) ending at 3,150.57 and an expected wave (iv) bounce capped near 3,228–3,198 USD, followed by a final dip.
The projected Wave 4 termination zone lies within the confluence of:
A key demand area: 3,110–3,000 USD
Rising channel support
1.618 Fib extension of Wave A ≈ 2,982.93 USD
A bullish breakout from this zone would mark the beginning of Wave 5, aiming for new highs above 3,360+ USD.
📉 Short-term Bias:
Expect one more drop to complete Wave 4 within the gray demand zone.
📈 Medium-term Outlook:
Anticipating a strong Wave 5 rally once support holds and price breaks the descending resistance trendline.
🔻 Invalidation:
A break below 2,982 USD would invalidate this count and suggest deeper correction.
#XAUUSD #Gold #ElliottWave #Wave4 #Wave5 #TechnicalAnalysis #TradingStrategy #Forex #ICMarkets #PriceAction #1HourChart #FibLevels #BullishOutlook
GOLD Gold (XAU/USD) May 2025 Outlook: Dollar Dynamics and Directional Bias
Optimism about potential tariff reductions and trade agreements has reduced safe-haven demand for gold, pressuring prices to two-week lows near $3,200-3204
A finalized deal could further strengthen the US Dollar (DXY), exacerbating gold’s decline.
US Dollar Strength:
The DXY has rallied on trade relief and mixed Fed rate expectations, making gold more expensive for foreign buyers.
Interest Rate Differential: While futures price in Fed cuts starting June (four total in 2025), the dollar’s near-term resilience limits gold’s upside.
Technical Breakdown:
Gold broke below a multi-week symmetrical triangle, signaling a bearish wave which will be targeting $3,100–$3,000
Immediate resistance sits at $3,3287–$3,2780; a break above this zone is needed to invalidate the bearish structure.this level represent a broken demand floor and calls for retest.
US Jobs Data (May 2): Weak Non-Farm Payrolls (<130K) could revive rate-cut bets, supporting gold. Strong data (>150K) may extend dollar gains.
Fed Policy (May 7 Meeting): No rate changes expected, but hints of June cuts could trigger volatility.
May Directional Bias
Factor Impact on Gold (XAU/USD)
Trade Deal Progress Bearish (dollar strength, risk-on sentiment)
DXY Rally Bearish (inverse correlation reasserted)
Weak US Data Bullish (safe-haven flows, rate-cut speculation)
Geopolitical Shock Bullish (flight to safety)
Gold faces downside pressure in May, targeting $3,100-3000 driven by dollar strength and fading safe-haven demand. A close below $3,200 would confirm the bearish trend.
Upside Risks:
Escalation in Middle East tensions or renewed US-China tariff threats.
Disappointing US economic data (e.g., jobs, CPI) reviving aggressive Fed cut bets
Conclusion
The dollar’s strength and trade optimism dominate gold’s near-term trajectory, favoring a bearish bias in May. However, gold remains a critical hedge against unexpected geopolitical shocks or dovish Fed pivots. Traders should monitor the May 2 NFP report and Fed rhetoric for directional cues.