Gold 4H – Big vs Little: The Conflict That Created ClarityJust price, structure, and volume — tracked in real time.
🧠 Chart Breakdown:
✅ Trend Reclaim (Early March) — Entered just after price bounced from the 200 EMA. Both systems aligned: Big Brother reversal and Little Brother trend crossover. I trusted the signal and it ran clean.
⛔ False Top (Late March) — Big Brother printed a red arrow under resistance. Little Brother still looked bullish, but I paused. That caution kept me out of the trap.
✅ Re-entry Confirmation (Early April) — Green triangle fired again after a textbook pullback. Bullish volume returned, and Little Brother confirmed. I re-entered long.
⛔ True Top (Mid-April) — Volume faded. Big Brother gave a second red warning. I exited longs here — structure rolled over fast after that.
🚨 Breakdown Confirmed (May 1–2) — The flush sealed it. Both systems aligned bearish. Structure broke. No more guessing — this trend has shifted.
This is how I trade with conviction. Tools don’t replace decisions — they sharpen them.
GOLD.PRO.OTMS trade ideas
XAUUSD:Sharing of the Latest Trading StrategiesYesterday, catalyzed by the ADP and GDP data, gold rebounded. However, today the United States and Ukraine reached an agreement, and the Trump administration hinted at a possible reduction in tariffs on some trading partners. The market's expectation for the relaxation of the trade situation has increased, leading to a decline in the safe - haven demand for gold. Currently, the key support level has been broken. The support at 3,260 has turned into resistance, and the important technical support below is at 3,220. Above this level, a rebound can be expected. If 3,220 is broken, the strong support at 3,200 will be the next target. But before it is broken, it is advisable to go long. There will be important data such as the non - farm payrolls released on Thursday and Friday. Do not blindly chase the short - side.
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XAUUSD/GOLD | 4H | SWING TRADEHey There,
Guys, I advise you to just wait for the breakout in gold. This is swing trading. I am just waiting for a breakout; if this breakout is to the downside, the target will be at least 3.215 level.
I hope this matches your desired tone.
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Down nearly 2% on Wednesday, GOLD still rebounds quickly on riskOANDA:XAUUSD fell nearly 2% on Wednesday (May 7), mainly due to a stronger US dollar and optimism from upcoming trade talks between the United States and China, while the Federal Reserve's "standstill" also added pressure on gold prices. However, it was supported by escalating geopolitical risks.
On Wednesday, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) left the target range for the federal funds rate unchanged at 4.25%-4.50%, citing increasing uncertainty about the economic outlook and rising risks to both maximum employment and price stability. “Uncertainties about the economic outlook continue to increase,” the FOMC said in its post-meeting statement. “The Committee is concerned about bilateral risks to its dual mandate and sees increasing risks to unemployment and inflation.”
Federal Reserve Chairman Powell maintained a neutral tone, saying the current policy stance was appropriate and the Fed was in no rush to adjust interest rates. He stressed that the Fed was prepared to act “quickly as needed” if circumstances changed, but warned that the Fed’s goals would not be fully achieved if tariffs remained in place.
Powell added that if either side of the dual mandate deviates too much, the Fed will evaluate which policy tool to use to achieve rebalancing.
When asked which mandate, inflation or employment, should receive more attention, he said it was too early to tell.
The market consensus remains that the Fed will not cut rates before July. In a higher interest rate environment, non-interest-bearing gold is often under pressure.
Big news on China-US trade talks
China and the US announced that US Treasury Secretary Besant and US Trade Representative Greer will travel to Switzerland to meet with Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng.
The talks are the first since US President Donald Trump imposed comprehensive tariffs on China and have raised optimism that the two largest economies can reach a deal.
On Wednesday, a spokesperson for the Chinese Ministry of Commerce answered reporters' questions about the high-level economic and trade negotiations between China and the United States. The spokesperson said China has decided to cooperate with the United States. Vice Premier He Lifeng, as head of the China-US economic and trade negotiation delegation, will hold talks with his US counterpart, US Treasury Secretary Benson, during his visit to Switzerland. - Bloomberg -
India-Pakistan tensions spiral after attack, risk of further escalation fuels demand for safe havens
India's airstrike on Pakistan has stoked tensions, raising fears of a full-blown war between the two nuclear-armed nations.
India launched missiles at nine locations in Pakistan and Pakistan-administered Kashmir early on May 7 in response to a shooting that killed 26 tourists in Pahalgam, Jammu and Kashmir, two weeks ago. The Indian Ministry of Defense said its forces struck facilities used by "terrorist groups" to carry out the Pahalgam attack.
The Indian Air Force has mobilized many modern weapons, including Rafale multi-role fighters carrying SCALP-EG stealth cruise missiles and AASM Hammer extended-range guided bombs and cruise missiles. The target coordinates were provided to the forces participating in the campaign by Indian intelligence agencies.
Images released by the media show the moment the series of missiles crashed into the target, creating large fire circles and violent explosions. Pakistan said at least 26 people were killed in this attack. -According to Vnexpress -
Gold is an asset that often benefits first when market risks appear, and India is also a leading gold-using country in the world.
Technical Outlook Analysis OANDA:XAUUSD
After yesterday's decline, gold continues to receive support from the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement area with horizontal support at $3,350 as noted by readers in yesterday's edition and it is now also aiming for a target of $3,430.
Once gold breaks $3,430 it will be in a position to continue its rally with a target of around (all-time high) in the short term.
Technical factors are completely bullish, from the short-term trend noted by the rising price channel and the long-term trend from the rising price channel. On the other hand, the nearest support is also the EMA21.
The relative strength index RSI is still quite far from the 80 level and the overbought area, indicating that there is still room for growth ahead and gold is likely to continue to increase in terms of momentum in the coming time.
During the day, the main bullish outlook for gold prices in terms of technology will be noted again by the following levels.
Support: 3,371 – 3,350 USD
Resistance: 3,430 – 3,500 USD
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 3440 - 3438⚡️
↠↠ Stop Loss 3444
→Take Profit 1 3432
↨
→Take Profit 2 3426
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 3350 - 3352⚡️
↠↠ Stop Loss 3346
→Take Profit 1 3358
↨
→Take Profit 2 3364
Risk aversion in the international situation is escalating! Gold has risen strongly again, breaking the shock, and there is basically no pullback. It is very likely that the risk aversion sentiment will be released directly, and gold will start to adjust again. Therefore, it is not suitable to chase more at this position now. It is better to wait patiently for the opportunity to fall back. Gold may rise and fall at any time. In the shock rise, it is very likely that the price will return to the starting point or lower in the later trend, but it can continue to rise. This is a feature of the shock. At the same time, the current market is not extremely strong and is still in the shock rise. Therefore, don't chase more, but retrace to support more.
Investment strategy: Gold 3340 short, stop loss 3050, target 3200
Xauusd.4h chart pattrentrend line and is showing strong bullish momentum, that supports your target of 3365. Here's a quick technical outlook based on your info:
Entry: 3272
Target: 3365
Trend: Bullish breakout (potential for continuation)
Upside Potential: 93 points
Suggested Stop-Loss (if not set): Near recent support or just below breakout zone (e.g., 3245–3250) for risk management
Watch for confirmation like:
Strong bullish candles on higher timeframes (e.g., 1H, 4H)
Volume increasing on the breakout
Retest of the trend line acting as support
Would you like a visual chart analysis or real-time gold price check?
Gold Climbs on Safe-Haven DemandGold climbed to nearly $3,360 per ounce on Tuesday, marking its highest level in over a week, as renewed tariff threats from President Trump increased safe-haven demand. Trump announced a 100% tariff on foreign films and signaled upcoming measures targeting pharmaceuticals. Investors are now focused on the Federal Reserve’s policy decision, with rates expected to stay unchanged despite Trump’s push for cuts.
Resistance is expected at $3,385, then $3,450 and $3,500. Support stands at $3,300, followed by $3,265 and $3,200.
Gold prices surge as risk aversion risesGold has now broken through strongly and stabilized above 3350. Gold fell back in the Asian session and went long. Gold bulls restarted and accumulated energy. Now gold bulls obviously occupy a dominant position. Gold fell back in the Asian session and could only go long. For the current market, don't chase it easily. The market fluctuates too much. Wait patiently for the opportunity to go long after the decline.
The 1-hour moving average of gold has begun to cross upward to form a golden cross. Gold bulls have begun to exert their strength. After gold broke through the 3350 line yesterday, gold fell back to around 3305 and continued to exert its strength. In the short term, 3350 is the key to the turning point of gold bulls and bears. Gold fell back to 3350 in the early trading, which is an opportunity to go long on dips.
The market changes rapidly. Since gold bulls are more powerful at the moment, gold will continue to go long. After the adjustment of gold bulls, the bottom rose. Then the gold bulls may have just begun, and the gold bulls are expected to continue to rise.
Buy range: 3350-3348, SL: 3338, TP: 3370-3380
Sell range: 3395-3397, SL: 3407, TP: 3375-3365
Key points:
First support: 3350, second support: 3340, third support: 3330
First resistance: 3390, second resistance: 3400, third resistance: 3410
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15-minute gold time frame analysis
To start the market structure, the 15-minute market is currently bearish, but to start an upward movement, it can be expected to reach the order block 3259-3263 and then continue towards the support area 3220-3210 and from this area it will rise towards the liquidity of the dynamic line of the 1 and 4-hour time frames. If the initial market rise closes above 3264, any lower market pullback is considered an upward trend.
As expected, gold prices continue to fall
📌 Gold driving factors
There are two aspects to look at the impact of April non-agricultural data on the gold market.
One is the data itself and the existing economic environment, and the other is combined with the technical aspect.
The market itself is troubled by the tariff issue. Whether it is the US stock market or the US dollar, they all need good economic data to boost. Once the April non-agricultural performance is poor, the market sell-off will be out of control, and it also means that the risk of US economic recession will increase.
Secondly, good data performance reduces the Fed's expectations for rate cuts. As we all know, the Fed's expectations for rate cuts or implementation of rate cuts are theoretically good for gold prices, and vice versa.
The cooling of the tariff issue may come soon, which is also not conducive to the rise in gold prices, but cooling does not mean the end, and the final achievement will definitely take some time.
📊Comment Analysis
Recently, we have been very good at controlling the gold market. Keeping an eye on the changes in fundamental news is the focus of research and judgment. Of course, the technical direction is also of reference value. The next market will revolve around fundamental news, especially in the context of tariffs.
The non-agricultural data exceeded expectations, and the tariff issue may see "dawn". If it can be confirmed in the near future, the risk aversion sentiment will subside in the short term, which is not conducive to the rise of gold prices. There is a high probability that there is room for retracement, so there is no rush to chase now.
💰Strategy Package
Operation ideas for next week:
Gold 3265 short, stop loss 3275, target 3230-3220;.
⭐️ Note: Labaron hopes that traders can properly manage their funds
- Choose the number of lots that matches your funds
- Profit is 4-7% of the capital account
- Stop loss is 1-3% of the capital account
[ TimeLine ] Gold 28-29 April 2025Hello everyone,
📅 Today is Friday, April 25, 2025
I will be using the High-Low price levels formed on the following dates as reference points for potential trade entries:
📌 April 28, 2025 (Monday)
📌 April 28 & 29, 2025 (Monday & Tuesday)
🧠 Trading Plan & Notes:
✅ Gold has broken its ATH multiple times over the past two weeks—volatility remains high
✅ Gold has significant reversal more than 2000pips from its ATH 3500 to 3260
⚠️ If the formed range is big, reversal entries or trades based on Fibonacci levels may be more appropriate
✅ I will personally trade both signals as part of my ongoing research and strategy
⚠️ If you're unsure or risk-averse, consider skipping April 28 & 29 signal
📋 Execution Plan:
🔹 Wait for the price range from the candles above to fully form (marked with green lines)
🔹 Entry will be triggered upon breakout, with a 60-pip buffer
🔹 If the trade hits Stop Loss (SL), switch direction and double the position size on the next valid entry for potential recovery
📉📈 Chart Reference:
🔗 Copy & paste this code into TradingView URL : TV/x/9932ommw/
XAU/USD 02 May 2025 Intraday AnalysisH4 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bullish.
Analysis and bias remains the same as analysis dated 23 April 2025
Price has now printed a bearish CHoCH according to my analysis yesterday.
Price is now trading within an established internal range.
Intraday Expectation:
Price to trade down to either discount of internal 50% EQ, or H4 demand zone before targeting weak internal high priced at 3,500.200.
Note:
With the Federal Reserve's dovish stance and persisting geopolitical uncertainties, heightened volatility in Gold is expected to continue. Traders should proceed with caution and adjust risk management strategies in this high-volatility environment.
Price could also be driven by President Trump's policies, geopolitical moves and economic decisions which are sparking uncertainty.
H4 Chart:
M15 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bearish.
As mentioned in yesterday's analysis dated 01 May 2025 whereby I mentioned that I would continue to monitor price and depth of bullish pullback following the printing of a bearish iBOS followed by a bullish CHoCH.
Price did not pullback significantly enough to warrant a further bearish iBOS, therefore, I will apply discretion and not classify this as such, I have however marked in red.
Price has since continued bearish, subsequently printing a bullish CHoCH.
Internal structure is now established, however, I will continue to monitor price regarding depth of pullback as previous.
Intraday Expectation:
Price to trade up to either premium of internal 50% EQ, or M15 supply zone before targeting weak internal low priced at 3,201.955
Note:
With the Federal Reserve maintaining a dovish stance and ongoing geopolitical tensions, volatility in Gold prices is expected to remain elevated. Traders should exercise caution, adjust risk management strategies, and stay prepared for potential price whipsaws in this high-volatility environment.
Trump's tariff announcement will most likely cause considerably increased volatility and whipsaws.
M15 Chart:
XAUUSD - Demand Zone Bounce or Just a Dead Cat? Gold (XAUUSD) is testing a critical demand zone after a strong bearish momentum, currently trading around $3,227. The drop of over 1.8% brings price back to a previously respected bullish order block highlighted in orange.
What’s happening?
Strong supply zone between $3,320 - $3,336 (blue box) triggered heavy selling.
Price broke through $3,280 and $3,234 support zones.
Now sitting on a key demand area, previously a reversal point — watch closely for bullish structure or further breakdown.
Key Levels:
Demand Zone: $3,210 – $3,234 (orange box)
Resistance to Watch: $3,234 (minor) & $3,280
Support Below: $3,200 psychological round number
Possible Scenarios:
1. Bullish Rejection: Watch for bullish engulfing or double bottom near current price.
2. Breakdown: Clean break and close below $3,210 may signal continuation to $3,180 or lower.
RSI, volume, and any candlestick confirmation will be key for entry timing.
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#Gold #XAUUSD #SupplyAndDemand #Forex #Trading #PriceAction #SmartMoney #LuxAlgo #TechnicalAnalysis
Gold continues to fall, is it expected to reach 3210-3200?Yesterday we mentioned that the market may present a convergent triangle pattern. Today, the gold price has indeed ushered in a wave of sharp declines at the opening of the Asian session, and has fallen below the key support of 3260, and the lowest level has reached 3221. At present, the 1H moving average is spreading downward. In the short term, gold is still in a downward trend and is in a correction to overbought. The gold price is expected to reach 3210-3200. If it falls below this support range, it may even test the previous low of 3193. But at the same time, the 1H RSI indicator has fallen into the oversold area. Therefore, in terms of news, we need to pay attention to the initial jobless claims and PMI data during the US trading session today, and beware of the rebound after the correction.
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TVC:GOLD FOREXCOM:XAUUSD FXOPEN:XAUUSD FX:XAUUSD OANDA:XAUUSD
Gold Potential Bullish ContinuationAfter a considerable retracement, Gold price still seems to exhibit signs of overall Bullish momentum as the price action may form a credible Higher Low with multiple confluences through key Fibonacci and Support levels which presents us with a potential long opportunity.
Trade Plan:
Entry : CMP 3220
Stop Loss : 2946
TP 0.9 - 1 : 3490
XAUUSD Scalping SetupThis chart shows a potential scalping buy setup on the 15-minute XAUUSD chart. After a strong bearish drop, price found support near the 3,220 level, forming a bullish rejection with increasing volume—an early sign of buyers stepping in. The RSI is recovering from oversold levels, suggesting room for upward movement. The marked red zone around 3,270 represents a likely resistance or supply area, where price may face selling pressure again. A short-term buy could be considered as price pushes up from the current level, targeting the red zone for a quick profit. This setup anticipates a bounce toward resistance before a potential reversal or continuation of the larger downtrend.
GOLD (XAU/USD) – INTRADAY SHORT BIASGold has broken below critical intraday support, confirming bearish momentum and a clear short bias for today. No signs of reversal — just clean downside flow.
This is a trend move, not a consolidation. Price is holding below prior support with conviction. Volume confirms that supply pain was strong before the move — sellers are still in control. Pullbacks into resistance are re-entry zones.
Markets can shift quickly — anything can happen. This is not financial advice.
Trade with a clear plan, size your risk properly, and never lose control over your risk appetite. Protect your capital first — profits follow discipline.
Focus on the Fed’s decision!Analysis of gold trend: The price of gold has risen more than 200 points this week. Although it is affected by the news, the interest rate decision will be released this week. The market generally expects it to remain on hold, but Trump has been putting pressure on Powell to cut interest rates in advance, which is undoubtedly good for gold prices. After the interest rate decision, if the Federal Reserve keeps the interest rate unchanged and Powell announces a dovish stance later, the price of gold may surge upward and then fall. At that time, I will re-plan my thinking; if something unexpected happens and Powell turns hawkish, the price of gold will dive more sharply than in the early trading.