Gold Holding Strong — Poised for the Next Leg HigherI believe we may be on the verge of another upward wave in gold.
Commodity cycles tend to be very long due to the unique characteristics of the market — such as slow changes in supply and demand, capital-intensive production, and long investment horizons.
The daily chart shows strength, with the overall trend remaining bullish. There’s no clear reason to panic or sell at this stage. After reaching 3400, gold has seen a healthy correction. I don’t expect a move significantly lower from here.
I’m in a long position and placing a stop-loss at today’s low, with a target above 3500.
GOLD.PRO.OTMS trade ideas
XAU/USD: Institutional Accumulation or New Bearish Impulse?Technical Context:
The graphical analysis shows that the price of gold (XAU/USD) is currently consolidating within a significant demand zone following the recent bullish impulse. The daily chart shows an attempt to bounce off the 3,300 USD zone, a key psychological level.
Volume and COT Analysis:
The latest COT data (April 29, 2025) indicates a slight reduction in long positions by non-commercial operators (-18,519 contracts), balanced by an increase in commercial long positions (+1,659 contracts), signaling potential institutional accumulation.
On the retail sentiment front, traders are slightly more exposed to the downside (51% short vs. 49% long), which could indicate a potential short squeeze if the price resumes an upward trend.
Seasonal Trends:
According to data, May historically shows mixed performances with an average of +9.83% over the last 10 years, but with significant fluctuations between longer and more recent periods.
Key Levels:
Resistance: 3,380 - 3,400 USD (previous distribution zone)
Support: 3,300 USD (current demand zone) and 3,050 USD (secondary support)
Trading Strategy:
Bullish Scenario: Buy above 3,340 USD with a target at 3,400 USD and a stop loss below 3,300 USD.
Bearish Scenario: Sell below 3,300 USD with a target at 3,050 USD and a stop loss above 3,340 USD.
XAUUSD Macro & Equity Market Overview:
Global equities are showing signs of fragility following a strong rally, with the S&P 500 down 0.8%, the Nasdaq 100 off 0.9%, and the Dow Jones losing nearly 390 points. Weakness was broad, with Russell 2000 (-1.1%) underperforming, indicating rising risk aversion toward small caps. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) spiked 4.7% to 24.76, reinforcing the shift to defensive positioning.
Key drivers include renewed concerns over Trump’s tariff rhetoric, which hit pharma and trade-sensitive sectors, and an apparent stall in momentum after a multi-session rebound. Fed rate expectations remain a key overhang — traders are waiting for the Federal Reserve’s next move while the U.S. 10Y yield holds above 4.31%, showing sticky long-term inflation expectations. Germany’s political instability adds to risk-off sentiment in Europe.
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Oil (WTI/Brent) – Day Trading Outlook:
Crude oil (WTI) is trading around $58.67, having bounced 4% from recent multi-year lows triggered by OPEC+ supply announcements and economic concerns. The U.S. shale outlook has turned structurally bearish, as noted earlier, with capital expenditure and rig count cuts signaling a near-term production rollover. This underpins a medium-term bullish case.
For intraday traders, today's move matters because oil has recovered above the psychological $58 level, with Brent back at $62.59. Volatility is elevated, and the price action suggests a reversal from oversold conditions. Energy sector ETFs (XLE) were flat despite market-wide weakness, signaling possible rotation back into oil stocks. Watch for upside continuation above $59.50 WTI, with a likely target zone around $61.20–61.80 intraday if risk appetite stabilizes.
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S&P 500 – Day Trading Outlook: Technically Heavy, Breadth Deteriorating
The S&P 500 closed at 5,606, down 43 points, with negative breadth across almost every major sector. The only strength came from Utilities (XLU +1.2%), underscoring a defensive rotation, while Technology (XLK -0.8%), Financials (XLF -0.6%), and Health Care (XLV -2.8%) led to the downside.
Market internals suggest further downside is likely unless bond yields soften or volatility retreats. The S&P 500 is struggling at 5,600–5,640, and intraday resistance sits at 5,630–5,650. A break below 5,585 opens downside toward 5,545–5,500 in the short term.
Key bearish indicators:
High-yield credit (HYG) is flat to negative.
Small-cap underperformance.
U.S. equity factors: value, core, and growth all showing -0.8% to -0.9% performance in every size bucket.
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XAU didnt change from weekend.
The U.S. 10Y and 30Y yields remain above 4.3% and 4.7% respectively, capping gold’s upside, but risk-off sentiment and volatility (VIX > 24) are providing strong tailwinds.
GOLD China’s massive gold purchases carry significant geopolitical implications that reshape global economic and financial power dynamics:
1. Dedollarization and Reduced US Dollar Dominance
China’s aggressive gold accumulation is a core part of its strategy to reduce dependence on the US dollar amid rising geopolitical tensions and economic decoupling. By increasing gold reserves-while sharply cutting US Treasury holdings-China aims to insulate itself from dollar-related risks such as sanctions or asset freezes, as highlighted by the 2022 Russia-Ukraine conflict experience. This shift undermines the dollar’s global reserve currency status and supports the emergence of a more multipolar currency system.
2. Enhanced Sovereignty and Financial Security
Gold provides China with a tangible, sovereign asset that cannot be frozen or devalued by foreign powers. This strengthens China’s economic autonomy and resilience against external pressures, especially amid ongoing US-China trade conflicts and Taiwan tensions. Physical gold reserves bolster confidence in China’s currency (yuan) and financial system, helping to back efforts to internationalize the yuan and reduce reliance on Western financial infrastructure.
3. Geopolitical Influence and Economic Restructuring
China’s gold market dominance is part of a broader “economic divorce” from the West, reflecting deglobalization trends and the formation of alternative trading and financial systems led by BRICS and allied nations. By controlling significant gold supplies and refining capacity, China gains leverage in global commodity markets and strengthens its geopolitical influence, challenging US-led economic order.
4. Impact on Global Financial Markets and US Economy
China’s gold buying fuels a “virtuous cycle” for itself but a “vicious cycle” for the US: rising gold prices in dollar terms signal dollar weakness, prompting further diversification away from dollar assets, reducing demand for US Treasuries, pushing US bond yields higher, and increasing US borrowing costs. This dynamic pressures US fiscal stability and economic growth.
5. Strategic Resource Control and Long-Term Planning
The recent discovery of a massive gold deposit in China’s Hunan province (over 1,100 tonnes) further strengthens China’s position, potentially boosting reserves by 44% and reducing reliance on imports. This strategic resource control enhances China’s ability to influence global gold supply and pricing, reinforcing its geopolitical and economic ambitions.
Gold Swing Short Trade Setup**Gold Market Analysis: Potential Reversal Formation**
Gold is finally showing strong signs of a potential top formation after an extended bullish run. After weeks of anticipation, yesterday's price action delivered a significant rejection candle at the psychologically important 3500 level, which could indicate the reversal signal we've been waiting for.
It's essential to recognize that in a robust bullish rally, tops can take longer to form than initially expected, as we've observed recently. The market often exhibits both time and price extensions in such conditions. Nevertheless, the rejection at 3500 in conjunction with the current technical setup suggests that we may be seeing a reversal pattern taking shape.
**Trading Perspective:**
From a trading standpoint, I am currently awaiting a confirmation candle (a follow-up to yesterday's rejection) to validate that the top is in place. If we witness follow-through selling pressure today or tomorrow, it could present an excellent swing short opportunity, with the following targets established:
- **Target 1 (TP1):** 3295
- **Target 2 (TP2):** 3250
- **Target 3 (TP3):** 3200
- **Target 4 (TP4):** 3170
- **Target 5 (TP5):** 3070 (psychological support level)
Stay vigilant and ready for potential short opportunities as the market unfolds. Let’s see if the signals align for a successful trade. Happy trading! OANDA:XAUUSD OANDA:XAUUSD EIGHTCAP:XAUUSD EIGHTCAP:XAUUSD
Technical Breakdown on Gold Spot / USD (XAU/USD) | 1H TimeframeTechnical Breakdown on Gold Spot (XAU/USD) – 1H Chart using Volume Profile, Gann, and CVD + ADX
1. Key Observations (Volume, Gann & CVD + ADX Focused)
a) Volume Profile Insights:
Value Area High (VAH): 3,312
Value Area Low (VAL): 3,230
Point of Control (POC):
High-Volume Nodes: Dense cluster near 3,229–3,250 and again around 3,312
Low-Volume Gaps: Noticeable void between 3,260 – 3,290, suggesting possible fast movement zone
b) Liquidity Zones:
Liquidity Pools:
Order Absorption:
c) Volume-Based Swing Highs/Lows:
Swing High (Volume Spike): 3,312 – area of rejection with reduced follow-through
Swing Low (Reversal Support): 3,230 – heavy volume absorption followed by rally
d) CVD + ADX Indicator Analysis:
Trend Direction: Currently shifting bullish after a prolonged downtrend
ADX Strength: ADX > 20 with DI+ > DI- (early bullish momentum building)
CVD Confirmation:
2. Support & Resistance Levels
a) Volume-Based Levels:
Support:
Resistance:
b) Gann-Based Levels:
Swing Low: 3,230
Retracement Levels:
3. Chart Patterns & Market Structure
a) Trend: Turning bullish (CVD rising, ADX > 20, price forming HLs)
b) Notable Patterns:
Reversal Base formed near 3,230 with upward breakout
Forming ascending channel – prices respecting the lower boundary support
Retest of breakout zone (POC + lower trendline) acting as potential launchpad
4. Trade Setup & Risk Management
a) Bullish Entry (CVD + ADX confirm uptrend):
Entry Zone: 3,240–3,250 (near lower trendline + POC retest)
Targets:
Stop-Loss (SL): 3,225 (below POC + swing low)
RR: Approx. 1:2.5
b) Bearish Entry (Only if trend reversal confirmed):
Entry Zone: Below 3,225 (loss of POC/VAL with CVD breakdown)
Target: T1: 3,200 (psychological + historical support zone)
Stop-Loss (SL): 3,255 (back above POC)
RR: Approx. 1:2
c) Position Sizing:
Use 1–2% capital per trade to manage downside risk
Gold Price Analysis – XAU/USD 4H Chart | Supply Zone Rejection +Gold is currently trading at $3,259, showing signs of rejection from a major supply zone around $3,271 - $3,259, highlighted by LuxAlgo's Visible Range. The price tapped into the high-volume area and faced rejection, signaling potential downside.
Key Levels:
Resistance (Supply Zone): $3,259 – $3,271
Current Price: $3,259
First Support: $3,200 – price previously reacted here.
Second Support: $2,998 – a significant former resistance turned support.
Major Demand Zone: $2,576 – strong institutional buying area.
Bearish Bias If:
Price fails to reclaim the $3,259-$3,271 zone.
Break and close below $3,200 could trigger a move toward $2,998.
Momentum below $2,998 opens a path toward $2,576, especially if macroeconomic data favors USD strength.
Watch For:
Reaction near $3,200 (potential bounce or continuation).
NFP or major U.S. economic data (highlighted on the chart) that could spike volatility.
Trade Idea: Short-term traders may look for short opportunities if the current supply zone holds. Confirmation would be a bearish candlestick close below $3,200.
Risk Management:
Use tight stops above $3,271 to limit exposure. Monitor macro events closely.
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What do you think – will Gold hold the $3,200 support or break lower? Drop your analysis below!
#Gold #XAUUSD #PriceAction #SupplyAndDemand #TechnicalAnalysis #LuxAlgo #Forex #Commodities #TradingStrategy #ChartAnalysis
TARGET SUCCESSFULLYThis chart highlights a textbook liquidity sweep and reversal pattern in Gold (XAU/USD).
Key Levels:
- Resistance Zone: Clearly defined above 3,360, with multiple rejection points.
- Support Level: Around 3,250, acting as a strong demand area.
- Liquidity Zone: Price dipped below the support to trigger stop-losses and trap sellers before reversing upward.
Price Action Insights:
- After grabbing liquidity below the support zone, the price rallied back, confirming a reversal setup.
- The move reached the target zone at 3251.225, fulfilling the projected bullish objective.
Outcome:
The trade idea played out successfully with the target marked as complete. Now, price is hovering at the former support-turned-resistance zone.
Next Steps:
Traders should monitor for:
- A potential breakout above this zone for continuation.
- Or rejection signals for a short-term pullback.
Gold Eiffel Tower The GOLD GTFO is still in play.
What saved Gold was the stopping for the market crash when Trumnpchenko manipulated the markets. Had the crash continued Gold would have crashed with it. As it is the last safe haven for money to pile into and people just give up and sell everything in sight.
If you were an early buyer of gold and sold above $3,000 then you have a nice 50% gain.
Take your money and RUN! All the way to the bank! Don't be a dick for a tick. If you are then you will ride it all the way back down.
When will it top no one can know. But what pros do is take their money and RUN! So be a pro! ;)
Click like follow subscribe!
Gold Intraday Trading Plan 5/2/2025As predicted yesterday, gold indeed broke 3270 support and went down just above 3200. Currently it looks pretty bearish in daily and below timeframes. But in higher timeframes, it is still bullish.
Since gold has hit my weekly target, I will be cautious to take any selling order today. Mainly because it's NFP day. We may see big market manipulation.
Nevertheless, I will closely monitor the resistance level of 3261-3271. If it holds, I will sell towards 3200 or even 3165. If it is broken, the correction could be over.
GOLD 4H CHART ROUTE MAP UPDATE & TRADING PLAN FOR THE WEEKHey Everyone,
Please see our updated 4h chart levels and targets for the coming week.
We are seeing price play between two weighted levels with a gap above at 3343 and a gap below at 3282. We will need to see ema5 cross and lock on either weighted level to determine the next range. We have a bigger range in play then usual.
We will see levels tested side by side until one of the weighted levels break and lock to confirm direction for the next range.
We will keep the above in mind when taking buys from dips. Our updated levels and weighted levels will allow us to track the movement down and then catch bounces up.
We will continue to buy dips using our support levels taking 30 to 40 pips. As stated before each of our level structures give 20 to 40 pip bounces, which is enough for a nice entry and exit. If you back test the levels we shared every week for the past 24 months, you can see how effectively they were used to trade with or against short/mid term swings and trends.
BULLISH TARGET
3343
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 3343 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET
3404
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 3404 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET
3439
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 3439 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET
3503
BEARISH TARGETS
3282
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 3282 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BEARISH TARGET
3224
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 3224 WILL OPEN THE SWING RANGE
SWING RANGE
3190 - 3138
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 3138 WILL OPEN THE SECONDARY SWING RANGE
SECONDARY SWING RANGE
3088 - 3046
As always, we will keep you all updated with regular updates throughout the week and how we manage the active ideas and setups. Thank you all for your likes, comments and follows, we really appreciate it!
Mr Gold
GoldViewFX
Gold key levels to watchGold has broken key short-term support between 3260-3284 (shaded in grey on the chart). This is a bearish development in the short term outlook from a technical point of view. But with the long-term trend being bullish, traders should take this with a pinch of salt. Key support levels are now approaching. $3200 is an obvious level to keep an eye on. Below that old resistance at $3167 comes into focus next. The line in the sand is at around the $3100 mark, where the bullish trend line is also converging.
By Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst with FOREX.com
GOLD WEEKLY CHART MID/LONG TERM ROUTE MAPHey Everyone,
Quick update on our weekly chart idea, it's been playing out beautifully, helping us track the move down and catch the move back up.
After hitting our final channel top target at 3281, we mentioned we would look for support forming above the channel. That’s exactly what happened, with price finding support outside the channel and giving us the bounce we anticipated.
We also got a body close above 3281, which completed the gap up to 3387. From here, we'll be watching for continued support above the channel, a retest of 3387, and a close above it to confirm the continuation higher.
If we fail to retest and close above 3387, we’ll likely see a reset back to the channel top. Should that support fail, we would expect a break of the EMA5 back into the channel, resetting the play inside the channel with all previous levels back in play.
This is the beauty of our Goldturn channels, drawn using weighted averages instead of pure price action. This unique approach helps us clearly identify fake-outs and real breakouts, cutting out much of the noise that usually confuses traders.
Moving forward, we’ll focus on smaller timeframes (1H and 4H) to buy dips off the weighted Goldturns, aiming for clean 30–40 pip moves. Ranging markets are perfect for this style, allowing us to capitalize on quick moves without getting caught in the chop of larger swings.
Thanks again for all your likes, comments, and follows, we really appreciate the support!
Mr Gold
GoldViewFX
This is a 4H chart of XAU/USD with multiple SMC annotations. 1. Chart Analysis Using Smart Money Concepts (SMC)
SMC Structure Identified:
• Major Break of Structure (BoS): Occurred above 3,240 → confirmed bullish intent.
• Major Change of Character (CHoCH): Happened around 3,320 (last demand broken), indicating bearish shift.
• FVG (Fair Value Gap): Marked just below the last day high — partially filled and then rejected.
• Liquidity: Equal highs and lows around 3,327 and 3,200 respectively — potential liquidity targets.
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2. Marked Points in Chart
• Last Day High / Low and Day High / Low are marked.
• 50% Day Range at approx. 3,274 — currently acting as intraday resistance.
• OB Zone around 3,214–3,218 (a critical support zone that may act as re-entry or rejection point).
• FVG Zone near 3,284 — unmitigated imbalance that price could revisit.
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3. Swing High & Low of the Day
• Swing High: ~3,327.72 (day/session high).
• Swing Low: ~3,214.31 (day/session low).
• These define the current internal liquidity pool.
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4. Trade Direction
• 4H Trend: Bearish, post CHoCH and major OB break.
• Bias: Bearish, as price is below FVG and below 50% of the daily range. OB is being respected and lower highs are forming.
• Intra-Day Opportunity: Possible short setups unless price closes strongly above 3,284–3,287 zone.
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5. Best Risk-Reward Setup (Swing/Intraday)
Scenario: Price retests FVG/OB at 3,284–3,287 and rejects.
• Entry: 3,284.00 (inside FVG)
• SL: 3,288.50 (above supply zone & equal highs)
• TP1: 3,214.00 (last day low)
• TP2: 3,200.00 (liquidity sweep & OB retest zone)
• RRR:
• To TP1: ~1:3
• To TP2: ~1:4.5
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6. Trade Setups by Timeframe
5-Minute Setup:
• Look for CHoCH near 3,284.00 zone.
• Entry: On bearish engulfing or internal BOS.
• SL: Above 3,288.00.
• TP: 3,214.00 (previous low).
1-Hour Setup:
• Wait for 1H candle rejection at FVG or last day’s high.
• Entry: 3,284–3,287.
• SL: 3,290.
• TP1: 3,214.00.
• TP2: 3,200.00.
4-Hour Setup:
• Use higher timeframe OB for re-entry.
• Look for price closing below 3,214.00 → opens short continuation toward 3,160 or deeper (OB at 3,100).
• Swing Trade Setup: Short from 3,284.00 → SL 3,290 → TP 3,100–3,080 (RRR: ~1:6).
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7. CRT Model Evaluation
• C – Context: HTF structure shifted bearish after CHoCH; price rejected FVG and supply zones.
* R – Retracement: Price retraced into OB and FVG in premium, providing a sell opportunity.
• T – Trend Continuation: If 3,214 breaks cleanly, expect continuation toward 3,160 and possibly 3,100.
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Summary
• Bias: Bearish under 3,284–3,287 zone.
• Key Levels to Watch:
• Resistance: 3,284–3,287 (FVG + OB).
• Support: 3,214–3,200 (liquidity pool + OB).
• Best Trade: Short from FVG zone on confirmation with TP at day low and deeper OBs.
Lingrid | GOLD Weekly Analysis: CORRECTIVE Phase after the SurgeOANDA:XAUUSD market initially rallied during the week, reaching the key 3500 level. However, we have a corrective move, showing a bit of profit taking as traders are looking to the tariff noise for direction. The market made a sharp decline resulting in a long-tailed bearish bar on the weekly timeframe, suggesting the price may continue pushing lower toward the 3150 support levels. The price shows similar price action to what we saw at the beginning of this month when a market decline was followed by a week of sideways movement, which then led to continuation of the bullish trend.
I think we might see 2 scenarios to identify the potential endpoint of this corrective move. On the daily timeframe, the price is near the 50% retracement of the bullish swing move, which may be a potential level for continuation. The second scenario is an ABCD pullback where price dips below the 3200 level to find support. In any case, we should react to the price action and how it develops. If the Monday candle gaps up, this potentially indicates that price may move higher. And if we get a gap down, then we can expect a deeper pullback in the market.
Traders, if you liked this idea or if you have your own opinion about it, write in the comments. I will be glad 👩💻
XAUUSD correcting to its 4H MA200.Gold (XAUUSD) has been trading within a Bullish Megaphone pattern since the start of the year. Last week's rejection on its top (Higher Highs trend-line) has resulted into a break below the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line).
This has technically been the signal that started the previous 2 Bearish Legs, which both bottomed upon touching the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) and once the 4H RSI got oversold below 30.00.
As a result, we expect more downside, targeting 3160.
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