Gold falls, can the bears continue?
Recently, the gold market has been affected by multiple factors and the volatility has intensified:
Trade policy uncertainty: Trump plans to impose a 100% tariff on overseas films, exacerbating concerns about a trade war, and risk aversion has once pushed up gold prices.
Fed policy expectations: Although the Fed kept interest rates unchanged in the early morning, the market is more concerned about its future policy path, and the impact of interest rate decisions is limited.
Progress of Sino-US trade negotiations: Optimistic sentiment has partially weakened risk aversion demand, causing gold prices to fall from highs.
Spot gold previously hit its highest level since April 22 at 3438, but due to profit-taking and changes in market sentiment, prices retreated from highs and entered a period of shock consolidation in the short term.
Technical analysis
1. Short-term structure (4H chart)
Key range: Yesterday, gold fluctuated around the 3360-3400 range. Although there was an interest rate decision in the early morning, no breakthrough was formed.
Risk of false breakthrough in the early trading: After opening today, it quickly rose to 3414 and then fell back quickly, forming a pattern of inducing more, indicating that the market is still bearish in the short term.
Current trend: The 4H chart structure weakened, and the price fell below the short-term support. If 3320 is lost, it will further drop to the 3300-3260 area.
2. Key support/resistance
Short-term resistance: 3344-3348 (high point of Asian session rebound), 3356-3360 (upper edge of yesterday's shock)
Short-term support: 3330 (intraday low), 3320 (key support level), break down to 3300
Strong support: 3260 (weekly level support)
Trading strategy suggestions
1. Short-term short selling (main strategy)
Entry position: around 3348 (if the rebound is weak)
Stop loss: 3358 (to prevent false breakthroughs)
Target: 3300 (first target), break to 3260
2. Break to short (if data pushes)
Condition: If the initial jobless data in the evening is negative, and the price falls below 3320
Follow-up strategy: short selling, target 3300-3260
3. Low-long strategy (wait and see)
If the price quickly drops to the 3260-3280 area and stabilizes, you can consider short-term rebound long orders, but it needs to be combined with market sentiment and data performance.
Focus on events
Tonight's initial jobless claims data: If the data is weaker than expected, it may strengthen the expectation of interest rate cuts and limit the decline of gold prices; on the contrary, if the data is strong, it will accelerate the decline.
Progress of Sino-US trade negotiations: Any sudden news may cause violent market fluctuations.
Summary
Gold is short-term technically bearish. It is recommended to sell short on rebounds in terms of operations, focusing on the resistance area of 3348-3360. If it is under pressure, look down to 3300-3260. Be cautious with data and strictly stop losses to control risks.
