RSI 101: The Secret of RSI’s WMA45 Line and How to Use ItIn my trading method, I use the WMA45 line together with RSI to help spot the trend more clearly.
Today, I’ll share with you how it works and how to apply it — whether you're doing scalping or swing trading.
Why WMA45?
WMA (Weighted Moving Average) is a type of moving average where recent prices are given more importance.
WMA45 simply means it takes the average of the last 45 candles (could be 45 minutes, 45 hours, or 45 days depending on your chart).
Because it moves slower than RSI, it helps reduce the “noise” and gives you a better idea of the real trend.
This idea is not new — many traders have tested RSI strategies also use this line. I just applied and adjusted it in my own way.
👉 How to set it up on TradingView (very simple):
What WMA45 Tells You
Trending
This line shows you the overall direction of the market:
📉 If WMA45 is going down, the price is likely going down.
📈 If WMA45 is going up, the price is likely going up.
Also, the steeper the line, the stronger the trend is:
Looking at the example above, the WMA45 line starts from the same level in two different phases, but the slope is different. The steeper line shows a larger price range.
This happens because the price was more volatile, which caused the RSI to move more sharply, and that, in turn, made the WMA45 slope steeper.
In multi-timeframe analysis, when the trend on the higher timeframe is strong (shown by a steep WMA45 line), the RSI on the lower timeframe will usually move within a tighter range and react more accurately to key levels.
If you’re not sure what these key RSI levels are, check out my previous post here:
For example, in a strong downtrend on H1, RSI on M5 might not even reach 50:
✅ What does this mean for trading?
Use WMA45 on higher timeframes to define trend bias.
On lower timeframes, watch RSI responses at key zones for optimal entries.
When holding positions, WMA45 helps determine whether to stay in the trade.
Moving Sideways
Here’s something important to note: when WMA45 is flat, RSI will keep crossing back and forth over it.
Depending on where WMA45 is flat, RSI tends to move within that range and creates different sideways price patterns. Here are the main types:
Around 50 → price moves in a box: According to RSI theory, the 50 level is the balance between buyers and sellers. RSI fluctuating around this causes price to move sideways in a rectangular box range.
Above 50 → price goes up in a rising channel: Above 50 is where buyers dominate sellers. RSI operating in this zone will continually create bullish candles pushing the price upward.
Below 50 → price goes down in a falling channel: Below 50 is where sellers dominate buyers. RSI in this zone will consistently form lower highs and lower lows, pushing the price downward.
Trend Reversal of WMA45
WMA45 is calculated from the average of 45 candles, so it's almost impossible for it to reverse direction suddenly. When it's sloping (trending), it takes time for RSI to fluctuate enough to "flatten" it before it can reverse.
As shown in the example, after WMA45 slopes up, before it turns downward, RSI must cross back and forth through it to reduce the steepness => flatten it => then reverse.
Does this align with Dow Theory? It represents the phases: Trend > Sideway > Trend. Sideway is when the WMA45 line is flattened.
✅ What does this mean for trading?
After a trend forms, if you want to enter a counter-trend trade, patiently wait for WMA45 to flatten to confirm the previous trend has ended.
Dynamic Support and Resistance
In addition to being a trend indicator for RSI, WMA45 also serves as a dynamic support/resistance level for RSI.
You will often observe RSI reacting when it encounters the WMA45 line.
In an uptrend, WMA45 acts as support for RSI.
In a downtrend, WMA45 acts as resistance for RSI.
Notably, if the reactions occur at higher RSI values, the resulting price support is stronger. Conversely, if reactions happen at lower RSI values, the price is pushed down further.
In the above example, in the first reaction around RSI 60s, RSI dropped by 9.6 points and price dropped by 12 points. In the second reaction at RSI 40s, RSI dropped similarly, but the price dropped by 25 points.
✅ What does this mean for trading?
You can use WMA45 as an entry zone for your trade: Wait for reactions with WMA45 on the higher timeframe, then switch to a lower timeframe to find a trade entry.
Use WMA45 as a take-profit or stop-loss level: For a short trade near WMA45, you can stop out if RSI crosses above it.
When monitoring these reactions, pay attention to the number of reactions—more reactions require more caution in trading.
Some Trade Setups Using WMA45 and RSI
1. Intraday trading
Trend: Follow the trend on the H1 chart.
Entry zone: At WMA45 of H1.
Entry confirmation: 2 methods:
On M5: when WMA45 of RSI is already flattened, and RSI has crossed above WMA45.
On M5: when a divergence appears in RSI.
2. Scalping
With the RSI’s reaction to WMA45, even on smaller timeframes (M1, M5), you can scalp when RSI touches WMA45.
When WMA45 has a slope and RSI returns to touch it, you can enter a trade with SL behind the candle close (10–20 pips to avoid stop hunts and spread), and TP to the nearest peak.
As mentioned, the first touch gives the best reaction.
My trading system is entirely based on RSI, feel free to follow me for technical analysis and discussions using RSI.
USCGC trade ideas
XAUUSD top-down analysisHello traders, this is a complete multiple timeframe analysis of this pair. We see could find significant trading opportunities as per analysis upon price action confirmation we may take this trade. Smash the like button if you find value in this analysis and drop a comment if you have any questions or let me know which pair to cover in my next analysis.
Will gold fall after encountering resistance at its high point?Gold surged after opening yesterday. Although it retreated slightly, it continued to maintain its strong pace. So far, it has reached 3386, with an increase of about 150 US dollars. 3386 is a short-term suppression level. If it breaks below 3350 in the Asian session, the steady idea is to wait for a rebound and then short it to see the downward trend. The focus below is on the support of 3272. Overall, the short-term operation strategy for gold is to short on rebounds and to buy on pullbacks. The short-term focus on the upper side is 3386-3390 resistance, and the short-term focus on the lower side is 3320-3300 support.
Strategy: Short gold in batches around 3380-3385 when it rebounds, stop loss at 3391, target around 3350-3330, break to target 3320
Gold Daily Sniper Plan - XAUUSD May 5th 💥 May 5 XAUUSD Sniper Plan – "Bulls Bounce, Bears Breathe – Who Takes the Next Shot?" 🎯📉
Gold is caught in a battlefield. After a textbook bounce from 3204, price is pushing into premium zones — but momentum is limping, and ISM Services PMI (4:00pm) could trigger the next major move.
Forget guessing. This is where levels speak louder than noise.
🧭 Market Overview
HTF Bias (D1–H4): Bullish macro trend, but pullback in play after rejection from 3500 ATH
LTF Flow (H1–M15): Bullish relief structure, but losing steam below key supply at 3315+
EMA Confluence (H1): EMA5 climbing above EMA21, but flat near 3260 — indecision zone
Liquidity: Sell-side liquidity rests below 3200. Buy stops are stacking above 3300.
🔥 Monday News Catalyst
🕔 4:00pm ISM Services PMI (USD)
Volatility expected. Strong data = dollar strength = possible Gold drop. Weak data = relief rally toward premium.
🎯 Sniper Entry Zones (With Logic)
🔻 Sell #1 – 3315–3325
📍 H1–H4 OB + FVG + equal highs above
🧠 Ideal for post-ISM spike rejection setup
🔻 Sell #2 – 3345–3355
📍 Final OB before last lower high + clean imbalance
🎯 SL: 3360 | TP1: 3315 | TP2: 3292 | TP3: 3268
🧠 Swing rejection setup if bulls overextend
🟢 Buy #1 – 3210–3220
📍 M15 OB + EQ + May 2 internal HL
🎯 SL: 3190 | TP1: 3244 | TP2: 3265 | TP3: 3290
🧠 Structure-based bounce zone with clean PA reaction
🟢 Buy #2 – 3175–3185
📍 LTF demand + FVG + RSI oversold sweep
🎯 SL: 3155 | TP1: 3210 | TP2: 3240 | TP3: 3268
🧠 Reactive area if NY flushes price before recovery
🗺 Key Levels to Watch
Level Meaning
3268–3275 Internal resistance + imbalance zone
3292–3300 Liquidity magnet pre-sell zone
3315–3325 Major rejection area
3345–3355 HTF supply & final trap
3210–3220 Primary bounce zone
3175–3185 Trap setup + liquidity sweep zone
3050–3075 HTF OB → swing buy only
👁🗨 Eyes On:
Rejection from 3315 = sniper short entry zone
Rejection from 3275 = continuation risk
Break below 3210 → 3175–3185 becomes critical
Weak ISM = gold spike toward 3300+ (fade setup)
💬 Final Thought:
This isn’t “buy now, sell now” nonsense. It’s about structure, timing, and logic.
The cleanest setups come to those who wait — not those who chase.
🙏 Like this breakdown? Boost and follow us for sniper setups all week.
📌 Important Notice!!!
The above analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always compare with your plan and wait for confirmation before taking action.
GOLD - FVG-Based Long & Short Setup Within Range ContextPrice action remains range-bound with well-defined FVG zones acting as both support and resistance, offering reactive trading opportunities on both sides.
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1. Upper FVG as Resistance — Short Setup Trigger Zone
The highlighted upper green zone marks:
- Fair Value Gap (FVG): A clear inefficiency from the previous bearish impulse.
- Structural Significance: Price has struggled to break and hold above, showing signs of supply reactivation.
This zone is likely to attract sellers upon revisit, offering a clean risk-defined short opportunity.
---
2. Lower FVG as Support — Long Setup Zone
The lower blue zone serves as:
- FVG Rebalance Area: A region where price previously left inefficiency, now acting as strong support.
- Accumulation Interest: Smart money often reloads in such imbalanced areas on retests.
This zone is optimal for positioning into the next bullish leg should price dip lower.
---
3. Liquidity Sweep Mechanics — Trap Both Sides
The market structure hints at:
- Step 1: Induce buyers into breakout longs into resistance.
- Step 2: Reverse from FVG, triggering short entries and trapping longs.
- Step 3: Collect liquidity from lower range, potentially initiating new accumulation.
This movement pattern is characteristic of engineered liquidity grabs in both directions.
---
4. Mid-Range Reaction — Key Pivot Area
Price currently hovers around the mid-range zone:
- Serving as a temporary balance point before volatility expansion.
- Acting as a launchpad for the next impulsive move, depending on order flow dominance.
Patience here is key — waiting for clean confirmations near FVGs provides optimal entry quality.
---
5. Summary:
- Upper FVG Resistance → Short Bias
- Lower FVG Support → Long Bias
- Structured Reactions Around Imbalances Suggest Smart Money Activity
This is a dual-sided setup ideal for reaction-based traders awaiting price confirmation at extremes.
GOLD MARKET ANALYSIS AND COMMENTARY - [May 05 - May 09]This week, the international OANDA:XAUUSD has dropped sharply from 3,352 USD/oz to 3,201 USD/oz and closed the week at 3,240 USD/oz.
The reason for the sharp drop in gold prices is that US President Donald Trump said that the US is about to reach a trade agreement with India, Japan, South Korea, and is likely to reach a trade agreement with China, although the two sides have not had any official negotiations.
In addition, an equally important factor is that China is on holiday from May 1 to May 5, so the demand for transactions in the world's largest gold consuming country is almost non-existent. While they have been continuously buying before even though the gold price was high.
The FED meeting on May 6-7 may have a strong impact on gold prices next week. US GDP in the first quarter grew by -0.3%, while the labor market still has potential tariff risks; inflation remains stable at a high level. With these data, it is likely that the FED will maintain interest rates at current levels, but may signal that a rate cut is coming soon. According to many experts, if the FED signals that it will cut interest rates after the meeting next week, it will push gold prices to recover next week. On the contrary, if the FED maintains a wait-and-see attitude, declaring that it is not in a hurry to cut interest rates, then gold prices next week may continue to adjust.
🕹SOME DATA THAT MAY AFFECT GOLD PRICES THIS WEEK:
Next week, all eyes will be on the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy meeting on Wednesday, with an interest rate decision and a press conference from Chairman Jerome Powell following keynote remarks earlier in April.
Fed officials will then continue their participation in the Reykjavik Economic Conference in Iceland on Friday. Fed Governors Michael Barr, Lisa Cook, Philip Jefferson and Christopher Waller will be present at the conference as speakers in panels on topics including artificial intelligence, employment and monetary policy research.
In addition, investors will also watch the ISM services PMI on Monday morning and the weekly jobless claims number on Thursday.
📌Technically, if gold prices fall below $3,200/oz next week, there is a possibility of a further decline to $3,129/oz. A deeper correction could see gold prices fall to $2,980-$3,000/oz next week. If gold prices reverse and break the $3,270/oz barrier, they could continue to rise above $3,350/oz.
Notable technical levels are listed below.
Support: 3,228 – 3,163USD
Resistance: 3,245 – 3,267 – 3,292 – 3,300USD
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 3311 - 3309⚡️
↠↠ Stop Loss 3315
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 3119 - 3121⚡️
↠↠ Stop Loss 3115
Interest rates, will gold prices fall sharply today?⭐️GOLDEN INFORMATION:
However, US Dollar bulls appear cautious, holding back from making bold moves as they await clearer signals regarding the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) future rate-cut trajectory. This wait-and-see stance, combined with ongoing geopolitical tensions—particularly the prolonged Russia-Ukraine conflict and unrest in the Middle East—continues to bolster demand for safe-haven assets like gold. As such, investors are likely to remain on the sidelines until the conclusion of the closely watched two-day FOMC policy meeting on Wednesday.
⭐️Personal comments NOVA:
Gold price awaits today's interest rate result, there was a good recovery above 3400 but then fell immediately after, showing that the market is not ready for the first interest rate cut if any, gold price may face strong selling pressure today
⭐️SET UP GOLD PRICE:
🔥SELL GOLD zone : 3438- 3440 SL 3445
TP1: $3425
TP2: $3410
TP3: $3395
🔥SELL GOLD zone : 3396- 3398 SL 3402 scalping
TP1: $3390
TP2: $3380
TP3: $3365
🔥BUY GOLD zone: $3308 - $3306 SL $3301
TP1: $3315
TP2: $3330
TP3: $3345
⭐️Technical analysis:
Based on technical indicators EMA 34, EMA89 and support resistance areas to set up a reasonable sell order.
⭐️NOTE:
Note: Nova wishes traders to manage their capital well
- take the number of lots that match your capital
- Takeprofit equal to 4-6% of capital account
- Stoplose equal to 2-3% of capital account
XAUUSD MADE PARALLEL CHANNELHere I Created This XAUUSD Chart Analysis
Pair : XAUUSD (Gold)
Timeframe: 30-Minute
Pattern: Parallel Channel
Momentum: Bullish/ BUY
Entry Level : BUY 3380
Support zone : 3370
Target Will Be : 3415
Disclaimer : This signal is based on personal analysis for learning purposes. Trade at your own risk and always use proper risk management.
GOLD falls sharply then recovers slightly from key confluenceOANDA:XAUUSD fell sharply and recovered slightly, as expectations of more such deals increased after US President Donald Trump announced a “groundbreaking” trade deal with the UK, undermining the metal’s appeal as a safe-haven asset.
The US and UK have reached a deal and markets are expecting more “tariff-free” avenues
Trump and UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer jointly announce the signing of a trade deal
• The UK will reduce tariffs on US goods from 5.1% to 1.8%;
• The US will maintain a uniform tariff of 10% on UK imports;
• The UK will further ease market access for US goods.
The US and China will continue high-level talks this Saturday
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Trade Representative Jamieson Greer will meet with top Chinese economic officials in Switzerland on Saturday to discuss the outlook for trade relations.
Gold prices have hit record highs in recent months, largely due to global tensions caused by Trump's tariff policies.
China's central bank allows banks to buy foreign currency to import gold, signaling potential support
The People's Bank of China has approved commercial banks to buy foreign currency in the latest quota to pay for gold imports, supporting the possibility of increased physical gold demand in the market in the future.
With the implementation of the US-UK agreement, the recovery of risk appetite in the market and the approaching US-China negotiations, the safe-haven demand for gold has temporarily eased, and technical downward pressure has also emerged.
In addition, traders need to pay special attention to geopolitical developments with the focus on Russia - Ukraine when Ukraine has taken actions despite Russia's warnings on May 9.
Any escalation of the conflict will immediately support gold's sudden price increase.
Analysis of OANDA:XAUUSD technical outlook
On the daily chart, after a sharp decline from the weekly target of $3,430, gold's decline has paused and recovered slightly from the 0.382% Fibonacci retracement level. The area around $3,292 is also an important support area as it is a confluence of important technical support factors, with the appearance of EMA21 (major support), the lower edge of the price channel which is the short-term trend price channel and the 0.382% Fibonacci retracement level.
As long as gold remains above $3,292, it still has a bullish outlook in the short term, and in case gold falls below this level, it will likely test technical support at $3,267 in the short term, more than $3,245.
For the day, with the current position, gold still has a bullish outlook, and the notable points will be listed as follows.
Support: $3,300 – $3,292 – $3,267
Resistance: $3,351 – $3,371
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 3334 - 3332⚡️
↠↠ Stop Loss 3338
→Take Profit 1 3326
↨
→Take Profit 2 3320
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 3259 - 3261⚡️
↠↠ Stop Loss 3255
→Take Profit 1 3267
↨
→Take Profit 2 3273
Bearish reversal?The Gold (ZAU/USD) is reacting off the pivot and could drop to the 1st support.
Pivot: 3,328.69
1st Support: 3,271.11
1st Resistance: 3,359.66
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Gold delivering excellent Trading opportunitiesTechnical analysis: Gold is consolidating on Hourly 4 chart after it entered my expected #3,342.80 - #3,322.80 Neutral Rectangle zone with #3,342.80 as an possible stop and local High’s. Upper maximum extension can reach #3,352.80 benchmark / Hourly 4 chart’s extension if Resistance breaks. Both ways, I doubt that Neutral candles will last for long as Gold will be ready for another Buying or Selling sequence, where another slide might be in the aftertime. It is important to note that DX found the Support and engaged the spiral recovery (# +0.81%) which can add Selling pressure on Gold. I will use this configuration and observing market closing (closing below #3,312.80 confirms the downtrend extension), where Gold is Technically ready for #3,300.80 - #3,252.80 benchmark test. DX however remains merely Neutral on bigger charts however near Lower High’s peak, adding Volatility on Gold counterbalancing mixed values on Yields. This gives me the impression that Gold has at the moment more probabilities to a Short-term uptrend than break below the Support zone. Gold continues to be contained within parabolic uptrend however isolated within Neutral range for the last #1 - #2 consecutive sessions. Daily chart is on (# +0.58%) switch and represents an cautious fractal. Keep in mind that the Medium-term pattern on Daily chart is an Ascending Channel and Gold is on its Higher High’s decimal zone with Lower levels being a potential Lower High’s Target. Total Neutrality and balance between the Support and Resistance lines is consolidation phase of next major move ahead.
My position: I have expected #3,300.80 benchmark touch throughout yesterday's session where I engaged Selling order on #3,345.80 (entry point). Due news outcome, #3,352.80 was tested which triggered my Stop-loss and left me without any orders. Later on, Gold dipped towards #3,300.80 benchmark (what I did expect) as I managed to re-Sell Gold on #3,322.80 and close the order on #3,307.80. I am without any orders as Gold is Trading within Neutral Rectangle. I will Trade the break-out of values I explained above.
Gold Trade Plan 07/05/2025Dear Traders,
after False break of Side Range price break top of Range,
The price is hitting the support at 3360-3370(pullback) and the move is continuing.
Momentum of Bullish movement is very Good , i expect price will be continue Uptrend to 3480
If you enjoyed this forecast, please show your support with a like and comment. Your feedback is what drives me to keep creating valuable content."
Regards,
Alireza
Gold on expected upswingTechnical analysis: Nothing irregular at the moment on the Short-term as Gold (Xau-Usd Spot) continues to Trade on Buying extension taken from local Low's Bullish accumulation within #3,370’s zone with clear Resistance point, and Support levels / ready to deliver the breakout I was after. I highlighted many times recently that every / more serious decline may represent Buying accumulation towards new ATH's. The underlying Medium-term trend is still Bullish, so if the Intra-day Low breaks throughout today’s session, then I expect another run towards the #3,400.80 benchmark / Higher High's Upper zone and possible benchmark extension. One important difference though: the Hourly Moving Average broke and for the first time in #3 sessions Gold was testing it from below as a Resistance (this was needed to break again to comfort Buyers). However, if (November #4 - #9) / (January #1 - #6) (January #20 - #25) variance is yet to be repeated, Gold finished the same pattern (Trading on such configuration) and now should engage the aggressive decline once local High's are met.
My position: My practical suggestion is to Buy every dip on Gold.
Gold will drop to $2,800 after the correction!Hello, traders
Gold starting the week with some bullish momentum. We've seen a 'BOS' to the downside, which is now being followed by a retest of a supply zone. This zone can either be around $3,317 (0.618% Fib) or higher around $3,400 zone (0.365% Fib).
Don't forget we're in a 'Wave 4 Correction' of the Elliott Wave Theory strategy. Wave 4 always has choppy price action to trap in late buyers & early sellers.
Fed interest rate suspense and tariff shockGiven the current heightened uncertainty, the implementation of tariff policies, rising inflation expectations, and declining household and business confidence, the market generally expects the Federal Reserve to keep its policy interest rate unchanged this week. Fed Chairman Powell may hint that he is not in a hurry to cut interest rates, and mentioned that tariffs will push up inflation and drag down economic growth. With the implementation of tariffs, inflation will rise significantly in the coming months, and the US economy may fall into a mild recession in the second half of the year, with economic activity and employment likely to shrink in the third and fourth quarters.
In terms of gold, yesterday the lowest fell to 3305 and began to stabilize and rise. It closed at 3334. The daily line closed with a big positive column. Gold opened slightly with a slight correction of 3323 and began to stabilize and rise. Asian gold once again made a strong effort to rise to the highest position of 3386. The current lowest is 3353. It is currently at noon. It is hovering at 3365, and the overall trend is strong, but the excessive rise seems to reserve rhythm space for the next European and American trading. Be careful with short covering. The current upper resistance is at 3372-3377, and the lower support is at 3324-3317. In terms of operation, it is recommended to rebound and short.
Operation strategy 1: It is recommended to short on the rebound at 3372-3377, stop loss at 3382, and the target is 3350-3325.
Gold Market Update - XAUUSD May 5th after PMI news🧠💣 “This Chart Might Offend Your Favorite Indicator – We Trade Pure Structure Only.” 💥⚡
⏳ Market Context:
Gold exploded from 3210 to 3328 after PMI release, trapping late sellers and punishing anyone short below 3260. After a sharp rejection at the 3327–3333 premium zone, price dropped fast to 3306 before recovering — confirming both a valid sell reaction and strong demand.
Now price is climbing again, sweeping equal highs and pressing into a weak high zone. But guess what? No valid H1–H4 supply break yet = no strong bearish confirmation. Smart Money is lurking — we’re watching the next trap unfold.
🧠 Structural Key Zones (What Price Is "Eyeing"):
Above:
• 🔥 3360 = weak high reaction level
• 🔥 3380–3395 = unmitigated FVG zone and final high supply pre-sell-off
Below:
• 🧊 3305–3310 = recent liquidity grab zone
• 🧊 3272–3284 = daily FVG + EMA confluence
• 🧊 3220–3235 = HTF unmitigated bullish OB + H4/D1 EMA200 = possible swing reentry
🔥 “Gold’s Not Done — The Liquidity War Isn’t Over Yet”
Smart traders aren’t guessing. They’re stalking zones. Let’s lock in the plan.
🧭 Bias & Flow
Macro: No more high-impact USD news today. Market digesting ISM PMI.
HTF (H4–D1): Bullish continuation unless 3272 breaks
LTF (M15–H1): Bullish pressure — currently front-running premium sell zones
👁🗨 Real-Time Price Context
📍 Price now at 3332
🔸 Approaching Sell Zone #1: 3360–3368
➡ Wait for reaction or internal CHoCH to validate
➡ No aggressive short here unless 3344 starts rejecting hard
📌 Key Level Zones
Type Price Zone Confluence
🔺 Resistance 3360–3368 Weak High + OB + FVG + Liquidity
🔺 Resistance 3380–3395 Final premium trap zone (HTF sell block)
🟩 Support 3272–3284 H1 Demand + FVG + EMA stack
🟩 Support 3220–3235 HTF OB + EMA200 D1 + Deep liquidity
🎯 Sniper Entry Plan
🔻 Sell Zone #1: 3360–3368
• SL: 3376
• TP1: 3344
• TP2: 3310
• TP3: 3285
Price is close — wait for confirmation wick / M15 structure shift
🔻 Sell Zone #2: 3380–3395
• SL: 3405
• TP1: 3360
• TP2: 3325
• TP3: 3275
High-risk sell if bulls overextend; final stop before reversal
🟢 Buy Zone #1:3300–3306 → Previous reaction zone
‣ SL: 3290
‣ TP1: 3320
‣ TP2: 3340
‣ TP3: 3360
Clean demand left unmitigated, supported by fair value gap on M15.
🟢 Buy Zone #2: 3272–3284
• SL: 3262
• TP1: 3305
• TP2: 3333
• TP3: 3360
Still valid if we see clean sweep and reentry from FVG
🟢 Buy Zone #2: 3220–3235
• SL: 3200
• TP1: 3260
• TP2: 3300
• TP3: 3340
Only if market nukes deep — last solid demand floor
🔍 Eyes On Zones
🔹 3344: micro resistance = potential front-run fade
🔸 3360: must-watch — premium trap candidate
⚠ Below 3272 = bearish sweep risk into 3220
💬 Final Word — GoldMindsFX Style
Don’t be fooled by the speed. Gold’s strength is real — but so is its manipulation. Snipers don’t chase, they prepare. Stay cold, stay calculated.
🔥 Drop a ⚔ if you’re stalking 3360 with surgical intent.
🙏 Like this breakdown? Boost and follow us for sniper setups all week.
📌 Important Notice!!!
The above analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always compare with your plan and wait for confirmation before taking action.
Will gold fall after encountering resistance at its high point?Planning your trading is the prerequisite for making profits. The essence of the market is the cycle of highs and lows, alternating ups and downs, and the essence of trading is to grasp the relative highs and lows in the market and snipe valuable trading opportunities. This value has only two points: first, probability, and second, space.
After the gold price rose, we will analyze the trend of it correcting from the high to 3200. The key position of this rebound, that is, the 618 position, is near 3386. The gold price encountered resistance here in the morning. So technically this suppression can be used as a key reference for the future market. Today in the Asian session, we will first observe the support situation of 3350. If it breaks down, then before the interest rate decision in the early hours of Thursday, we will pay attention to whether the gold price can stand firmly above 3272. If this position is not stable, then the second half of the week will still be a downtrend. This wave of rise can only be regarded as a rebound repair, not a bull return (the premise is that 3386 above must not be broken).
Today's gold short-term operation ideas suggest that rebounding is the main focus, and callbacks are supplemented by longs. The upper short-term focus is on the 3386-3390 first-line resistance, and the lower short-term focus is on the 3320-3300 first-line support. All friends must keep up with the rhythm.
Short position strategy:
Strategy 1: Short 20% of the gold position in batches when it rebounds to around 3380-3385, stop loss 6 points, target around 3350-3330, and look at 3320 if it breaks;
Long position strategy:
Strategy 2: Long 20% of the gold position in batches when it pulls back to around 3315-3320, stop loss 6 points, target around 3340-3360, and look at 3380 if it breaks;
Gold Head & Shoulder PatternThe completion of a head and shoulders pattern in the gold market suggests the potential commencement of an upward trend.
Current market conditions indicate that we are presently situated within the right shoulder formation of this pattern, an observation that warrants careful monitoring for confirmation of the bullish reversal and subsequent price appreciation.
Down nearly 2% on Wednesday, GOLD still rebounds quickly on riskOANDA:XAUUSD fell nearly 2% on Wednesday (May 7), mainly due to a stronger US dollar and optimism from upcoming trade talks between the United States and China, while the Federal Reserve's "standstill" also added pressure on gold prices. However, it was supported by escalating geopolitical risks.
On Wednesday, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) left the target range for the federal funds rate unchanged at 4.25%-4.50%, citing increasing uncertainty about the economic outlook and rising risks to both maximum employment and price stability. “Uncertainties about the economic outlook continue to increase,” the FOMC said in its post-meeting statement. “The Committee is concerned about bilateral risks to its dual mandate and sees increasing risks to unemployment and inflation.”
Federal Reserve Chairman Powell maintained a neutral tone, saying the current policy stance was appropriate and the Fed was in no rush to adjust interest rates. He stressed that the Fed was prepared to act “quickly as needed” if circumstances changed, but warned that the Fed’s goals would not be fully achieved if tariffs remained in place.
Powell added that if either side of the dual mandate deviates too much, the Fed will evaluate which policy tool to use to achieve rebalancing.
When asked which mandate, inflation or employment, should receive more attention, he said it was too early to tell.
The market consensus remains that the Fed will not cut rates before July. In a higher interest rate environment, non-interest-bearing gold is often under pressure.
Big news on China-US trade talks
China and the US announced that US Treasury Secretary Besant and US Trade Representative Greer will travel to Switzerland to meet with Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng.
The talks are the first since US President Donald Trump imposed comprehensive tariffs on China and have raised optimism that the two largest economies can reach a deal.
On Wednesday, a spokesperson for the Chinese Ministry of Commerce answered reporters' questions about the high-level economic and trade negotiations between China and the United States. The spokesperson said China has decided to cooperate with the United States. Vice Premier He Lifeng, as head of the China-US economic and trade negotiation delegation, will hold talks with his US counterpart, US Treasury Secretary Benson, during his visit to Switzerland. - Bloomberg -
India-Pakistan tensions spiral after attack, risk of further escalation fuels demand for safe havens
India's airstrike on Pakistan has stoked tensions, raising fears of a full-blown war between the two nuclear-armed nations.
India launched missiles at nine locations in Pakistan and Pakistan-administered Kashmir early on May 7 in response to a shooting that killed 26 tourists in Pahalgam, Jammu and Kashmir, two weeks ago. The Indian Ministry of Defense said its forces struck facilities used by "terrorist groups" to carry out the Pahalgam attack.
The Indian Air Force has mobilized many modern weapons, including Rafale multi-role fighters carrying SCALP-EG stealth cruise missiles and AASM Hammer extended-range guided bombs and cruise missiles. The target coordinates were provided to the forces participating in the campaign by Indian intelligence agencies.
Images released by the media show the moment the series of missiles crashed into the target, creating large fire circles and violent explosions. Pakistan said at least 26 people were killed in this attack. -According to Vnexpress -
Gold is an asset that often benefits first when market risks appear, and India is also a leading gold-using country in the world.
Technical Outlook Analysis OANDA:XAUUSD
After yesterday's decline, gold continues to receive support from the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement area with horizontal support at $3,350 as noted by readers in yesterday's edition and it is now also aiming for a target of $3,430.
Once gold breaks $3,430 it will be in a position to continue its rally with a target of around (all-time high) in the short term.
Technical factors are completely bullish, from the short-term trend noted by the rising price channel and the long-term trend from the rising price channel. On the other hand, the nearest support is also the EMA21.
The relative strength index RSI is still quite far from the 80 level and the overbought area, indicating that there is still room for growth ahead and gold is likely to continue to increase in terms of momentum in the coming time.
During the day, the main bullish outlook for gold prices in terms of technology will be noted again by the following levels.
Support: 3,371 – 3,350 USD
Resistance: 3,430 – 3,500 USD
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 3440 - 3438⚡️
↠↠ Stop Loss 3444
→Take Profit 1 3432
↨
→Take Profit 2 3426
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 3350 - 3352⚡️
↠↠ Stop Loss 3346
→Take Profit 1 3358
↨
→Take Profit 2 3364
US-China optimism, GOLD falls sharply from target levelIn early morning trading on Wednesday (May 7), spot OANDA:XAUUSD fell sharply by nearly 2%. Bloomberg said that despite the escalation of military conflict between India and Pakistan, signs of progress in trade negotiations between the United States and China have limited demand for safe-haven assets.
Previously, gold prices had surged for two consecutive trading days. Spot gold prices rose nearly 3% on Tuesday.
China and the United States announced that U.S. Treasury Secretary Besant and U.S. Trade Representative Greer will travel to Switzerland to meet with Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng.
Today (Wednesday), a spokesperson for the Chinese Ministry of Commerce answered reporters' questions about the high-level economic and trade negotiations between China and the United States. The spokesperson said that China has decided to cooperate with the United States.
Vice Premier He Lifeng, as head of the China-US economic and trade negotiation team, will hold talks with his US counterpart, US Treasury Secretary Benson, during a visit to Switzerland. It is the first such meeting since US President Donald Trump imposed sweeping tariffs on China and has raised optimism that the two largest economies could reach a deal.
Gold prices have risen nearly 30% this year as Trump’s aggressive trade and geopolitical policies have caused widespread market turmoil and investors have sought safe havens. Gold hit a record high of $3,500 an ounce in April but has fallen in recent weeks.
The Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision later Wednesday, and policymakers are expected to keep rates unchanged despite Trump’s repeated criticism of Fed Chair Powell for not cutting rates.
Fed officials have often stressed the need to wait and see how the trade policies implemented last month will affect the economy. Lower borrowing costs tend to be good for gold.
Technical Outlook Analysis OANDA:XAUUSD
After gold achieved the target increase noted by readers in yesterday's edition at 3,430 USD, it has fallen significantly in the early trading session today (7 May). But the downside momentum is also limited by the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement level, which is noted as the nearest support level and for gold to continue to increase in price, it needs to achieve the condition of recovering and breaking the 3,430 USD level after which traders can think about the 3,500 USD level in the near future.
During the day, in the overall picture, gold still has a bullish outlook with the long-term rising price channel and the short-term rising price channel as the trend and support from the EMA21 moving average.
As long as gold remains above the EMA21 and within/above the aforementioned price channels, the overall outlook remains bullish, but you should also note that in the current market environment, price movements of 2-3%/day are very common, so technical positions need to be firmly established (preferably at confluences where multiple indicators are present).
My notable positions will be listed as follows.
Support: 3,371 – 3,350 USD
Resistance: 3,400 – 3,430 USD
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 3440 - 3438⚡️
↠↠ Stop Loss 3444
→Take Profit 1 3432
↨
→Take Profit 2 3426
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 3337 - 3339⚡️
↠↠ Stop Loss 3333
→Take Profit 1 3345
↨
→Take Profit 2 3351
Gold Market Outlook – Upcoming FED Decision & Trading StrategyAs we head into the upcoming week, all eyes are on the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, which is a major catalyst for gold. This event could significantly influence gold’s direction — either fueling the ongoing bullish trend or triggering a pullback.
🔎 Current Technical Outlook:
Gold is currently showing strong bullish momentum across higher timeframes.
Liquidity targets remain above, with key zones likely to be breached via wicks or trendline taps.
Given the uncertainty around the news and macro factors, we’ll execute trades only on confirmed setups from lower timeframe's confirmation.
📌 Trade Plan:
Open 50% of the position at $3160,
an inevitable level which is a critical level backed by technical confluence.
Enter remaining positions based on lower timeframe confirmation.
📝 Supporting Fundamentals:
COT (Commitment of Traders) Report indicates an increase in net long positions on gold.
$3160 is highly probable — we anticipate price to tap this zone.
The U.S. has significantly increased gold imports, reflecting strategic accumulation.
Smart money has taken partial profits, but large bullish positions are still being held.
Expectation: A sweep of major liquidity levels, followed by a continuation of the bullish trend.
Stay sharp and disciplined. Wait for confirmation before adding full exposure.