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Microsoft - Positive earnings expectation , value to collect?Hi guys we would be looking forward to our next stock analysis for Microsoft! Microsoft Corporation continues to demonstrate robust financial performance, underpinned by its strategic investments in artificial intelligence (AI) and cloud computing. The company's strong earnings and forward-looking initiatives position it favorably for sustained growth. In Q4 FY2024, Microsoft reported revenue of $64.7 billion, marking a 15% increase year-over-year. Net income rose to $22.0 billion, with diluted earnings per share (EPS) of $2.95, surpassing analysts' expectations of $2.90 . For the full fiscal year, revenue reached $245.1 billion, reflecting a 16% increase, while net income grew by 22% to $88.1 billion. Microsoft's Intelligent Cloud segment, which includes Azure, generated $28.5 billion in revenue for Q4 FY2024, a 19% increase year-over-year. Azure's revenue alone grew by 29%, driven by strong demand for cloud services and AI integration . The company's AI initiatives, such as the integration of Copilot across Microsoft 365 applications, have been pivotal in enhancing productivity and driving adoption. 📈 Positive Overall Outlook Analysts maintain a bullish outlook on Microsoft's stock, with expectations of continued growth in earnings and revenue. For fiscal year 2025, analysts forecast an EPS of $13.04, up 10.5% from the previous year . The company's strategic focus on AI and cloud computing, coupled with its strong financial results, support this positive sentiment. Microsoft's commitment to expanding its AI capabilities is evident in its planned $80 billion investment to enhance its global network of computing centers . This investment aims to support the growing demand for AI services and solidify Microsoft's position as a leader in the AI and cloud computing markets. To summarize, Microsoft's strong financial performance, driven by its cloud and AI initiatives, positions the company for continued success in the evolving technology landscape. 📌 Trade Plan 📈 Entry: 390 - ✅ Target: 430 - Just below the ATH / around the strong resistance ❌ SL: 365 - Just around the current rejected support zone
NASDAQ:MSFTLong
by DG55Capital
2
Microsoft (MSFT) Becomes the World’s Most Valuable CompanyMicrosoft (MSFT) Becomes the World’s Most Valuable Company According to financial data, Microsoft’s market capitalisation currently stands at approximately $3.24 trillion, while the valuations of Apple and Nvidia — second and third on the list respectively — remain below $3 trillion. This follows a sharp surge in Microsoft’s share price (MSFT), which has risen by over 26% from its April low. Why has Microsoft’s share price risen? The main driver behind the MSFT stock rally was last week’s quarterly report, which outperformed analysts’ expectations: → Earnings per share: actual = $3.46, forecast = $3.22; → Revenue: actual = $70 billion, forecast = $68.4 billion. As reported in the media, investors responded positively to a notable increase in revenue from Azure cloud services. Technical Analysis of Microsoft (MSFT) Shares A wide bullish gap — over 7% — pushed the price above a key support line that had underpinned the 2024 uptrend in Microsoft stock. However, following the report’s release, the price stabilised just below a resistance line drawn through previous key highs. This provides grounds to interpret the current setup as a symmetrical triangle pattern with an axis around the $427 mark, suggesting short-term price consolidation within the defined boundaries. Going forward, further key news related to Microsoft — a company less exposed to trade war impacts than Apple — could: → help maintain its status as the world’s most valuable firm; → support a potential bullish breakout through the resistance line and a continuation of the 2024 uptrend. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
NASDAQ:MSFT
by FXOpen
1
Microsoft (MSFT) Share Price Jumps Nearly 9% – What’s Next?Microsoft (MSFT) Share Price Jumps Nearly 9% – What’s Next? As the chart shows, Microsoft (MSFT) shares surged sharply, forming a large bullish gap: while trading closed around $391 on 30 April, yesterday’s candlestick closed just below the $425 mark. What Drove the Rally in Microsoft Shares? Microsoft released its financial results for the first quarter of 2025, exceeding Wall Street expectations on both revenue (actual = $70.1 billion, 2.4% above forecasts) and earnings per share (actual = $3.46, 7.4% above forecasts). Particular attention was drawn to the strong performance of Azure – revenue from Azure and other cloud services soared by 33% year-on-year. A significant part of this growth was fuelled by robust demand for artificial intelligence services, which helps ease concerns about the return on large-scale infrastructure investments related to AI. In addition, Microsoft issued an upbeat outlook for the next quarter, which ultimately triggered the sharp rise in its share price. Technical Analysis of MSFT Chart Yesterday’s candlestick closed near its low (highlighted by the arrow), indicating that bears were active during the trading session. From a technical analysis perspective, this can be explained by the proximity of the price to two key resistance lines: 1 → The upper boundary of a descending channel drawn from significant price action patterns (marked in red). The relevance of this channel is confirmed by the price’s behaviour near its median line (dashed). 2 → A former trendline that served as support throughout 2024. Therefore, a short-term correction cannot be ruled out following the sharp rally in MSFT shares, potentially tempering some of the enthusiasm generated by Microsoft’s strong quarterly report. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
NASDAQ:MSFT
by FXOpen
1
What Is Random Walk Theory and Its Implications in Trading? What Is Random Walk Theory and Its Implications in Trading? Random walk theory argues that market prices move erratic, making it difficult to analyse past data for an advantage. It suggests that technical and fundamental analysis provide little to no edge, as prices instantly reflect all available information. While some traders embrace this idea, others challenge it. This article explores the theory, its implications, criticisms, and what it means for traders navigating financial markets. What Is Random Walk Theory? Random walk theory reflects the idea that financial markets move erratic, making it impossible to analyse past price data for an advantage. The theory argues that price changes are random and independent, meaning past movements don’t influence future direction. This challenges both technical and fundamental analysis, arguing traders who attempt to time the market are essentially guessing. The concept was first introduced by Maurice Kendall in 1953, who found no meaningful patterns in stock prices. Later, Burton Malkiel popularised it in A Random Walk Down Wall Street (1973), arguing that a blindfolded monkey throwing darts at a stock list would perform as well as professional traders. The underlying principle is that markets are efficient, instantly reflecting all available information. The theory states that prices truly follow a random path, so a trader analysing charts or company reports has no statistical edge. It’s like flipping a coin—the next move is unrelated to the last. This has major implications: active trading strategies become questionable, and passive investing (e.g., index funds) may be a more logical approach. However, while randomness can explain short-term price movements, longer-term trends still emerge. Factors like liquidity, institutional flows, and investor psychology create periods where price action deviates from pure randomness. This is where the debate arises—are markets entirely random, or do trends exist that skilled traders can take advantage of? Understanding random walk theory helps frame this debate, offering insight into why some traders dismiss traditional analysis while others continue searching for patterns in price action. Theoretical Foundations and Key Assumptions The random walk hypothesis is based on mathematical models and probability, arguing that financial markets follow a stochastic process—where future price movements are independent of past trends. It builds on several key principles that shape how economists and traders view market efficiency and price behaviour. Market Efficiency and Information Absorption A core assumption of random walk models is that markets are efficient, meaning all available information is already reflected in asset prices. If new data emerges, prices adjust instantly, making it impossible to gain an edge through analysis. This aligns with the Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH), which classifies efficiency into three forms: - Weak form: Prices already reflect past movements, rendering technical analysis ineffective. - Semi-strong form: Fundamental data (e.g., earnings reports) is priced in immediately, limiting the usefulness of research. - Strong form: Even insider information is priced in, meaning no trader has an advantage. Brownian Motion and Stochastic Processes The theory borrows from Brownian motion, a model describing random movement, often used in random walk algorithms to simulate stock price fluctuations. Prices are treated as a series of independent events, much like molecules colliding in a gas. No Clear Patterns If prices truly follow a random walk, trends and cycles do not exist in a statistically significant way. This challenges traders who attempt to use historical data to analyse future movements. Implications for Traders and Investors If random walks in trading are truly the norm, then analysing market movements using historical price data is no more effective than flipping a coin. This has significant implications for both traders and long-term investors. For traders relying on technical analysis, random walk theory presents a major problem. If price changes are independent, then tools like support and resistance, trendlines, and moving averages hold no real value. The same applies to fundamental analysis—if all available information is instantly priced in, then even detailed financial research doesn’t offer an edge. This would mean day traders and swing traders aren’t consistently able to generate higher returns than the broader market. It’s why proponents of the theory often argue that attempting to time the market is a losing battle in the long run. However, many supporters of the random walk theory advocate for passive investing, arguing that since, for example, individual stock movements are erratic, holding a diversified index fund is a more rational approach. Instead of trying to outperform the market, investors simply track it, reducing costs associated with frequent trading. Criticism and Counterarguments While random walk theory argues that market movements are independent, real-world trading data argues that markets are not entirely random. Critics point to patterns, inefficiencies, and the effectiveness of certain trading strategies as evidence that price action isn’t purely a coin flip. Market Inefficiencies Exist One of the biggest challenges to random walk theory is that markets display recurring inefficiencies. Certain price behaviours, like momentum effects, mean reversion, and seasonal trends, suggest that past movements do have an impact on future price action. For example: - Momentum strategies: Studies show that assets that have performed well over the past three to twelve months tend to continue in the same direction. If price action were purely random, these trends wouldn’t exist. - Earnings reactions: Stock prices often drift in the direction of an earnings surprise for weeks after the announcement. If markets were perfectly efficient, all adjustments would happen instantly. Real Results Random walk theory suggests that no trader can systematically outperform the market over time. Yet, some fund managers and proprietary traders have done exactly that. Warren Buffett’s long-term track record is often cited as evidence that skill, not just luck, plays a role in investing and trading. Similarly, hedge funds employing quantitative strategies have consistently generated returns, challenging the idea that price movements are entirely random. The Adaptive Markets Hypothesis A more flexible alternative is Andrew Lo’s Adaptive Markets Hypothesis, which seeks to reconcile the EMH’s claim that markets are rational and efficient with behavioural economists’ argument that markets are, in reality, irrational and inefficient. Instead of being entirely random, markets evolve based on participants’ actions, allowing patterns to emerge. While random walk theory provides a useful framework, real market behaviour often deviates from its assumptions, leaving room for traders to find potential opportunities beyond pure randomness. Practical Considerations for Traders Even if markets exhibit randomness in the short term, traders still need a structured approach to analysing price action and managing risk. While random walk theory challenges traditional methods, it doesn’t mean traders should abandon analysis altogether. Instead, it highlights the importance of probabilistic thinking, risk control, and understanding market conditions. Short-Term vs. Long-Term Price Behaviour Markets may behave randomly on a daily or weekly basis, but longer-term trends can emerge due to liquidity shifts, institutional positioning, and macroeconomic factors. Traders focusing on short-term moves often work with probabilities, using statistical models and historical tendencies to assess risk and potential trade opportunities. Risk Management in an Uncertain Market If price movements are largely unpredictable, risk control becomes even more important. Traders typically limit their exposure using stop losses, position sizing, and diversification to avoid being caught on the wrong side of market volatility. Instead of focusing on certainty, they manage the probability of different outcomes. The Role of Quantitative Strategies While traditional chart patterns may be questioned under random walk theory, quantitative and algorithmic strategies analyse large datasets to identify inefficiencies. High-frequency trading firms, for example, exploit microsecond price discrepancies that aren’t visible to the human eye. Rather than proving whether markets are fully random, traders adapt by testing, refining, and adjusting their strategies based on what works in real conditions. The most experienced traders accept uncertainty but structure their approach around probabilities and risk management. The Bottom Line Random walk theory challenges the idea that past price movements provide an edge, arguing that markets move erratically. While some traders accept this and focus on passive investing, others analyse inefficiencies to find potential opportunities. FAQ What Is the Random Walk Theory? Random walk theory suggests that asset prices move unpredictably, with past movements having no influence on future direction. It argues that markets are efficient, meaning all available information is instantly reflected in prices. This challenges the idea that traders can consistently outperform the market using technical or fundamental analysis. What Is the Meaning of the Random Walk Fallacy? Critics of the theory argue that the random walk fallacy is the mistaken belief that financial markets move in a completely random manner, disregarding factors such as fundamental analysis, technical patterns, and behavioural finance that can influence price trends. This misconception may cause traders to overlook potential opportunities for strategic analysis. What Are the Criticisms of Random Walk Theory? Critics argue that markets display patterns, inefficiencies, and behavioural biases that contradict pure randomness. Studies on momentum, mean reversion and liquidity effects show that past price movements do influence future trends. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
NASDAQ:MSFTEducation
by FXOpen
1
MSFT HAGIA SOPHIA! Self-explanatory, I think. Never trust motivational moves! They fade faster than a New Year's resolution! Yet we all fall for it all the time. The difference is we don't bet our hard-earned money every time we get motivated to learn our lesson after about the fifth or sixth or seventh... time! For some reason, in trading, it's different; most don't even learn after the hundredth time! I am guessing it has something to do with the herd mentality. Others are doing it so its okay for me to lose my ass with them for the one hundredth and one time chasing!! If I haven't convinced you yet, NOT to do it. Try thinking of it like this. There are many better trades out there to buy! Hagia Sophia is not there to make you rich! It is there to humble you! Click boost like and subscribe! l3ts get to 5,000 followers! ))
NASDAQ:MSFTShort
by RealMacro
Trading Analysis for Microsoft**Current Price:** $387.3 **Direction:** **LONG** **LONG Targets:** - **T1 = $395.0** - **T2 = $405.0** **Stop Levels:** - **S1 = $383.0** - **S2 = $376.0** --- **Wisdom of Professional Traders:** This analysis synthesizes insights from thousands of professional traders and market experts, leveraging collective intelligence to identify high-probability trade setups. The wisdom of crowds principle suggests that aggregated market perspectives from experienced professionals often outperform individual forecasts, reducing cognitive biases and highlighting consensus opportunities in Microsoft. **Key Insights:** Microsoft is demonstrating robust growth potential, particularly buoyed by its increasing investments in AI infrastructure and cloud computing services. Traders see the stock primed for a continuation of its upward momentum due to growing demand for AI applications across industries and Microsoft’s advancements in integrating AI technology into its product ecosystem. Institutional confidence remains high, with analysts highlighting key drivers such as Azure's market share expansion and strong profitability metrics. Near-term momentum ahead of earnings is supported by key technical indicators and market sentiment. Resistance at $390 and psychological levels around $400 are being closely monitored by traders. Sustaining movement above these levels could lead to further upside potential that traders are ready to capitalize on. **Recent Performance:** Microsoft's stock has been outperforming many peers in the tech sector, consistently trading above its 20-day and 50-day moving averages. This indicates short-term bullish momentum, though it has struggled to break above its 200-day moving average. The consolidation phase observed recently suggests that market participants are awaiting pivotal news such as earnings results to initiate significant directional moves. A notable surge in buying interest has also been seen across its options market, signaling optimism among institutions and retail investors alike. **Expert Analysis:** Analysts have been praising Microsoft's execution in fulfilling long-term AI strategies, which could potentially add billions to future revenue streams. Growth in cloud services led by Azure and partnerships with OpenAI further underline the company’s strategic edge in the evolving tech landscape. Technical indicators like RSI and MACD also signal bullish sentiment, with key support levels well-defined at $376 and $383, safeguarding downside risks. Many experts agree that a robust quarterly earnings beat or upward revision of guidance could ignite momentum toward the $405-$413 range. **News Impact:** Anticipation is building ahead of Microsoft's earnings announcement, where traders are expecting a strong beat on both revenue and EPS metrics. Positive sector-wide developments in generative AI, alongside broader macro trends benefiting tech, have left investors optimistic about the stock's prospects. Any updates on Microsoft's AI-driven initiatives or its integration into major product lines could significantly impact future share price movements. Additionally, the regulatory environment around AI technologies is being closely monitored as it could influence long-term valuations. --- **Trading Recommendation:** Microsoft is well-positioned for long-term bullish momentum, with near-term upside heading into its earnings report. Clear support levels are established at $376 and $383, providing safety nets for traders while resistance levels of $395 and $405 present opportunities for potential gains. This setup aligns with expert analysis and institutional sentiment, making a LONG trade favorable for those seeking an entry point into a high-performing tech giant with strong fundamentals. ```
NASDAQ:MSFTLong
by CrowdWisdomTrading
1
NASDAQ in potential ending diagonal formationNASDAQ has recently completed a Wave 4 correction within a classic ending diagonal structure, finding strong support between the critical demand zone of 350–377. This region has held firmly, affirming bullish structural integrity and reinforcing the likelihood of a new impulsive phase. Price action is now coiling just below 441.70, a key resistance level. A decisive breakout above this threshold would confirm the initiation of Wave 5, targeting the projected upper boundary of the macro channel around 563 a confluence zone of both Fibonacci extensions and historical resistance. The structure remains bullish as long as the 350–377 zone is respected. A clean move above 441.70, ideally backed by increasing volume and momentum indicators, would validate the bullish continuation setup and unlock the next phase of upside potential. This setup offers a compelling risk-to-reward narrative, aligning with long-term trend dynamics and classical Wave theory.
NASDAQ:MSFTLong
by weslad
MSFT is a no Brainer CALLMarket Context NASDAQ:MSFT Current Price: $428.50 1-Month Move: +6.2% (from $403.20) 1-Year Move: +28.4% (from $333.80) Year High/Low: $468.35/$309.45 Technicals: RSI: ~63.2 (neutral, approaching overbought) Above 20-day and 50-day MAs, slightly below 200-day MA (short-term strength in a longer uptrend) Options Data: IV Rank: 68th percentile (elevated premiums) Put/Call Ratio: 0.85 (slightly bullish skew) Max Pain: $415.00 High OI: $420 calls, $400 puts Historical & Model Insights Historical Move: MSFT averages ~5.8% post-earnings, with 7/12 quarters showing upside. IV Crush: Expect 25–35% IV drop post-earnings, so plan exits carefully. Model Consensus (Grok, Claude, Llama, Gemini, DeepSeek): Moderately Bullish Why? Strong AI/cloud growth narrative, consistent guidance beats, and call-heavy OI at $420–425. Max Pain at $415 suggests limited downside pull. Outlier: Gemini flags macro risks and Max Pain gravity, leaning neutral but not bearish. Trade Setup Strategy: Single-leg, naked call (bullish, defined risk) Instrument: MSFT Direction: Call Strike: $435.00 (premium $0.75, fits $0.50–$1.00 target band) Expiry: 2025-05-02 (first weekly post-earnings) Entry Price: $0.75 Entry Timing: Pre-earnings close (2025-04-30) Profit Target: $1.50 (~100% gain) Stop Loss: $0.38 (~50% loss) Confidence: 70% Expected Move: ±$24.90 (~5.8%) BEST AI Signals in the market
NASDAQ:MSFTLong
by quantsignals
$MSFT AI & CLOUD COMPUTING GROWTHAs of March 12, 2025, Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) is trading at $383.08, reflecting a modest increase of 0.69% from the previous close. Despite recent market volatility affecting major technology stocks, several factors underscore a bullish outlook for Microsoft's stock: Microsoft continues to demonstrate strong financial health, maintaining robust cash flows and a solid balance sheet. This financial stability enables ongoing investments in research, development, and strategic acquisitions, positioning the company for sustained growth. Microsoft's significant investments in artificial intelligence, including its partnership with OpenAI, position it to capitalize on the growing enterprise demand for AI services. Analysts believe that the current stock price may undervalue Microsoft's strong fundamentals and potential in the AI market. Microsoft's extensive range of products and services, from its dominant position in desktop operating systems and productivity software to its growing cloud computing platform, provides multiple revenue streams. This diversification enhances the company's resilience against sector-specific downturns. Microsoft's position as a leader in the technology sector, coupled with its strong brand recognition, offers a competitive advantage. The company's ability to set industry trends and command premium pricing supports robust profit margins and market share. Microsoft's solid financial foundation, strategic investments in AI, diversified product portfolio, and strong brand equity contribute to a positive long-term outlook for MSFT stock.
NASDAQ:MSFTLong
by Smarter_Trades
Microsoft after earningsMicrosoft ( NASDAQ:MSFT ) reached the $425 target after strong post-earnings momentum. Price is now testing a key weekly resistance between $400 and $450. Immediate support is at $400. As long as it holds above this level, the trend remains bullish. Watch the $425–$400 gap for potential retracement. #Microsoft #MSFT #Trading #StockMarket #VolumeProfile #TechnicalAnalysis #Earnings #Investing #WallStreet #globaltrade #investment #investing #stockmarket #wealth #realestate #markets #economy #finance #money #forex #trading #price #business #currency #blockchain #crypto #cryptocurrency #airdrop #btc #ethereum #ico #altcoin #cryptonews #Bitcoin #ipo
NASDAQ:MSFTLong
by alexpv73
MSFT Setup After EarningsEarnings season is heating up and Microsoft (MSFT) is once again in the spotlight. With its dominance in cloud and AI, the next move could be explosive. Here’s how pro Im thinking my setting up: 🔹 $390 – A bold speculative entry for breakout hunters. 🔹 $365 – A defensive entry on post-earnings pullback to support. 🔹 $345 – The opportunity zone if a sharp drop offers value. 🎯 Profit Targets: TP1: $410 – Psychological and technical resistance. TP2: $426 – Momentum continuation level. TP3: $445–$450 – Ambitious upside for long-term riders. Whether you’re playing momentum or patiently buying dips, MSFT is offering clear levels. Stay sharp. Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. All trading involves risk. Do your own research or consult a professional advisor before investing.
NASDAQ:MSFTLong
by Robert_V12
MSFT Looking at a possible bottoming outNASDAQ:MSFT is looking at a potential bottoming out after the Microsoft has formed a bullish morning star pattern above 123.6% Fibonacci extension level of 383.73-455.48 range. Furthermore, the strong bullish bar was seen closing above the gap and the previous resistance turned support low of 377.16. Ichimoku has yet to show a clear bullish trend but the slight closure above the 9-period conversion line may see a strong signal. MACD is still bearish over the longer-term period Mid-term Stochastic showing oversold crossover signal 23-period ROC is showing a bullish divergence Volume remain healthy. Wyckoff analysis - Larger range from 8 Jul 2024 (Buying climax) is looking at a distribution. Hence, current rebound is likely to be in a sign of weakness phase. Recommend to buy swing in 1-week to a month.
NASDAQ:MSFTLong
by William-trading
Microsoft’s Big Moves This Quarter | From Activision to AI AgentMicrosoft’s Revenue Surge: The Power of AI, Gaming, and Strategic Investments Microsoft has released its Q1 FY25 earnings for the quarter ending in September The stock saw a 6% drop, indicating the results fell short of investors' high hopes. Trading at over 30 times projected earnings for next year, expectations for Microsoft were significant. CEO Satya Nadella stated “Our AI business is set to exceed an annual revenue run rate of $10 billion next quarter, making it the fastest business in our history to reach this milestone.” This means that AI will soon account for about 4% of Microsoft's total revenue in under three years a remarkable feat for a global giant. If you need a quick summary, here are three main points: 1. ☁️ Azure’s growth is slowing. As Microsoft’s key player in the AI competition, Azure grew 34%, down slightly from 35% in the prior quarter (after adjustments). This comes as Google Cloud raised the bar, with its growth accelerating from 29% to 35% during the same period. 2. 🤖 AI growth is limited by hardware supply, as capacity struggles to meet demand. Data center expansion is a long-term process, and Microsoft is investing heavily in infrastructure, aiming for a growth boost by 2025. 3. 👨‍👩‍👧‍👦 Consumer-focused products like Gaming and Devices are underperforming. Although not essential to Microsoft's core business, their poor performance has impacted overall results. Here’s a breakdown of the insights from the quarter. Overview of today’s insights: - New segmentation. - Microsoft’s Q1 FY25 overview. - Key earnings call highlights. - Future areas to monitor. 1. New Segmentation Revised Business Segments In August, Microsoft announced a reorganization of its business segments, effective this quarter. The purpose? To better align financial reporting with the current business structure and strategic management. Summary of the main changes - Microsoft 365 Commercial revenue consolidation: All M365 commercial revenue, including mobility and security services, now falls under the Productivity and Business Processes segment. -Copilot Pro revenue shift: Revenue from the Copilot Pro tool was moved from Productivity and Business Processes to the More Personal Computing segment under Search and news advertising. -Nuance Enterprise reallocation: Revenue from Nuance, previously part of Intelligent Cloud, is now included in Productivity and Business Processes. -Windows and Devices reporting combination: Microsoft now reports Windows and Devices revenue together. Impact of These Changes: Core Segments Overview: In summary: - The Productivity and Business Processes segment has grown significantly. - The Intelligent Cloud segment has decreased due to the reallocation of Nuance and other revenue. Products and Services Overview: - M365 Commercial now includes Nuance, shifted from the Server products category, along with integrated mobility and security services. - Windows & Devices have been merged into a single, slower-growth category. Additional Insights: - Azure, Microsoft's cloud platform, is reported within 'Server products and cloud services.' Although its growth rate is shared by management, exact revenue figures remain undisclosed. Azure’s past growth figures have been adjusted for consistency, with the last quarter’s constant currency growth recast from 30% to 35%, setting a higher benchmark. Tracking these metrics is challenging due to limited revenue disclosure, but this recast indicates Azure's raised growth expectations. 2. Microsoft’s Q1 FY25 Performance Financial Summary: -Revenue: Up 16% year-over-year, reaching $65.6 billion (exceeding estimates by $1 billion). Post-Activision Blizzard acquisition in October 2023, the growth was 13% excluding the merger. New Product and Services Segmentation Results - Server products & cloud services: $22.2 billion (+23% Y/Y). - M365 Commercial: $20.4 billion (+13% Y/Y). - Gaming: $5.6 billion (+43% Y/Y), influenced by Activision. - Windows & Devices: $4.3 billion (flat Y/Y). - LinkedIn: $4.3 billion (+10% Y/Y). - Search & news advertising: $3.2 billion (+7% Y/Y). - Enterprise & partner services: $1.9 billion (flat Y/Y). - Dynamics: $1.8 billion (+14% Y/Y). - M365 Consumer products: $1.7 billion (+5% Y/Y). Core Business Segments Breakdown: - Productivity and Business Processes: Increased 12% Y/Y to $28.3 billion, supported by M365 Commercial, especially Copilot adoption. - Intelligent Cloud: Grew 20% Y/Y to $24.1 billion, with Azure AI driving growth. - More Personal Computing: Grew 17% Y/Y to $13.2 billion, including a 15-point boost from Activision. Devices fell, but search and ad performance improved under new segmentation. Key Observations: - Microsoft Cloud revenue climbed 22% Y/Y to $39 billion, making up 59% of total revenue (+3 percentage points Y/Y). - Azure continues to drive cloud services and server products' growth. - Xbox growth has surged due to the Activision acquisition since Q2 FY24, expected to stabilize by Q2 FY25. - Windows OEM and devices combined, showing a 2% decline in Q1 FY25. - Office rebranded to Microsoft 365; updated naming will be used starting next quarter. - Margins: Gross margin at 69% (down 2pp Y/Y, 1pp Q/Q); operating margin at 47% (down 1pp Y/Y, up 4pp Q/Q). - EPS: Increased 10% to $3.30, beating by $0.19. Cash Flow and Balance Sheet: - Operating cash flow: $34 billion (52% margin, down 2pp Y/Y). - Cash**: $78 billion; Long-term debt**: $43 billion. Q2 FY25 Outlook: - Productivity and Business Processes: Anticipated 10%-11% Y/Y growth, steady due to M365, Copilot inclusion, and expected LinkedIn growth of ~10%. Dynamics set to grow mid-to-high teens. - Intelligent Cloud: Projected 18%-20% Y/Y growth, slightly slowing, with Azure growth expected between 28%-29%. - More Personal Computing: Forecasted ~$14 billion revenue, declines in Windows, Devices, and Gaming anticipated, with some offset from Copilot Pro. Main Takeaways: - Azure's growth slowed to 34% Y/Y in constant currency, with AI services contributing 12pp, up from 11pp last quarter. This marks a dip from the recast 35% prior and included an accounting boost. - Capacity limitations in AI persist; more infrastructure investments are planned, with reacceleration expected in H2 FY25. - Commercial performance obligations grew 21% to $259 billion, up from 20% in Q4. - Margins were pressured by AI infrastructure investments; Activision reduced the operating margin by 2 points. - Capital expenditures increased by 50% to $15 billion, half dedicated to infrastructure, with further Capex growth expected. - Shareholder returns included $9.0 billion through buybacks and dividends, matching Q4 repurchases. Earnings Call Highlights: Azure AI saw a doubling of usage over six months, positioning it as a foundation for services like Cosmos DB and SQL DB. Microsoft Fabric adoption grew 14% sequentially, signaling rapid uptake. AI Expansion: GitHub Copilot enterprise use surged 55% Q/Q, with AI-powered capabilities used by nearly 600,000 organizations, a 4x increase Y/Y. M365 Copilot has achieved a 70% adoption rate among Fortune 500 companies and continues to grow rapidly. LinkedIn saw accelerated growth in markets like India and Brazil and a 6x quarterly increase in video views, aligning with broader social media trends. Search and Gaming: Bing’s revenue growth surpassed the market, while Game Pass hit a new revenue record, propelled by Black Ops 6 Capital Expenditures: CFO Amy Hood highlighted that half of cloud and AI investments are for long-term infrastructure, positioning the company for sustained growth. 4. Future Outlook Energy Needs: Microsoft, facing higher power demands, plans to revive a reactor at Three Mile Island with Constellation Energy by 2028 to power its AI data centers sustainably. Autonomous AI Agents: Coming in November, these agents will perform tasks with minimal human input, enhancing efficiency. Copilot Studio will allow businesses to customize these agents, with 10 pre-built options to start. Industry Impact: Salesforce has launched Agentforce, signaling increased competition. CEO Mark Benioff recently compared Microsoft’s Copilot to the nostalgic Clippy, stoking rivalry. For further analysis stay tuned
NASDAQ:MSFT
by moonypto
$MSFT Potential Bull wave targeting 428 SL at 370Bullish daily candlesticks , RSI breakout and back tested, but there are strong resistance at 393-396 , if breakout then it will target the upper gap and fib golden at 428 but there are real overhead resistances. Above 396 , minor targets at 408 and 416 .The latest news of tariffs exemptions may push it higher but needs carful risk management. NASDAQ:MSFT Earning report by 30th April . i would like to to take 395 Call expiry before earning but with protection Put or some type of hedge. Good luck . please boost and share. Gracias
NASDAQ:MSFTLong
by WinnerTrader99