TSLA Sitting on the Edge: Gamma Pivot or Breakdown?
🧠 Macro View:
The Trump tariff shock sent waves across the market, particularly hitting growth and export-sensitive sectors. While NVDA and tech names dumped earlier, TSLA showed relative strength, bouncing near its high volume node — but this could change fast.
📊 Technical Analysis (1H Chart)
Structure:
* Price bounced from ~243 back toward 260, reclaiming key HVL.
* But it failed to break through the 265–285 supply zone (Gamma Wall zone).
* Now sitting on 260, a key equilibrium level.
Levels:
* Support:
* 🔹 260 (Current HVL zone)
* 🔹 250 – Gamma Put Support
* 🔹 243.36 (recent low, key for invalidation)
* Resistance:
* 🔺 280 → Call Resistance / GEX Wall
* 🔺 285–293 → Gamma ceiling, extremely difficult to break without institutional help
Indicators:
* Volume spiked on rejection from 280+, suggesting profit-taking or hedging.
* TSLA must hold above 260 to avoid slipping into a liquidity vacuum toward 250 or lower.
🔥 GEX + Options Sentiment
GEX Positioning:
* GEX: 🔴🟢 — mixed but leaning negative
* Call Walls:
* 280 = Gamma Wall + Call Resistance
* 285 = major rejection zone
* Put Walls:
* 250 = key dealer support
* 245 & 240 = deeper magnets if panic resumes
Options Oscillator:
* IVR 67 → High implied volatility rank, meaning traders are buying premium.
* IVx avg 87.2 vs current IVx (-0.35%) → indicates elevated fear is still embedded.
* Call$ 23.6% → neutral-to-bearish skew (not heavily bullish)
🧭 Trade Setups
🐻 Bearish Breakdown:
* Entry: Breakdown below 260 + confirmation with volume.
* Target: 250 → 243 (Put wall & previous swing low)
* Stop: 266+
* Catalyst: Further macro deterioration (tariff escalation, weak futures)
🐂 Bullish Bounce:
* Entry: Bounce from 260 with reclaim of 265.
* Target: 280 → 285 test (but high risk)
* Stop: Close below 258
* Watch: Strength in QQQ or SPY supporting the move
📌 Final Thoughts:
TSLA is at a tipping point. The Gamma wall at 280 caps upside unless we see an unwinding of fear. Dealers are likely short gamma below 260, and if 260 cracks, their hedging will accelerate the downside to 250–243.
This is a reaction zone, not a trend zone** — trade lightly and watch for traps.
⚔️ Trade Idea:
Buy 250P (1–2 week expiry) on breakdown below 260
Alt: Scalper can try 260C if market shows strong bounce and reclaim 265 with volume
Neutral bias till clear break of 260 or reclaim of 265+
This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research and manage your risk.
