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FSOY1! trade ideas

Fading the Soybean Oil premium.Jumping straight into the technicals, we see a head and shoulder pattern on the daily Soybean Oil chart. With the neckline now broken, it seems a bearish set-up might be possible. While the technicals are important, understanding where the current price level of soybean oil is in context to other products could help us build further conviction on this idea. Firstly, the Soybean crush components. Currently, Soybean Oil trades at a pretty large premium against Soybean and Soybean Meal. Looking at the price ratios of Soybean Oil/Soybean & Soybean Oil/Soybean Meal, we also see that both have been trading out of the ‘normal’ range since 2021. With both ratios now trending lower and knocking on the door of the normal range again, we will watch closely to see what happens as we approach this critical juncture. Secondly, Soybean Oil vs its substitute, Crude Palm Oil. Again, we see Soybean Oil as the outlier here, as prices diverge from Crude Palm Oil, with Soybean Oil trading higher. Looking at the bottom chart, we can clearly see the Soybean Oil/Crude Palm Oil ratio deviating from the average range established in 2018 – 2021. With this ratio recently trending lower, a break below the upper level of the range established (dotted line) could accelerate the closing of this premium, as seen in the 2021 to 2022 period, where the ratio collapsed swiftly. The technically bearish setup, coupled with Soybean Oil’s relative valuation against the soybean complex and Crude Palm Oil on fundamental standpoint, makes a decent case to short Soybean Oil Futures from here. To express this view, we can consider setting up the trade in a few ways: 1) An outright short on Soybean Oil using the CME Soybean Oil Futures, at the current level of 60.05, setting our stop at 67 and taking profit at 42, with each 1-point move in the Soybean Oil Futures contract equal to 600 USD. 2) A spread trade between Soybean Oil & Crude Palm Oil, by taking a short position in the CME Soybean Oil Futures contract and a long position in the CME Crude Palm Oil futures contract. Such a setup could potentially allow you to stay profitable even if you turn out to be ‘wrong’ in your market views if it eventually proves that crude palm oil has been underpriced and the soybean premium is closed by crude palm oil rallying. For this trade, it is trickier to set up due to the contract size and tick value difference. Interested readers can check out one of our previous ideas where we have covered this trade in further detail: The charts above were generated using CME’s Real-Time data available on TradingView. Inspirante Trading Solutions is subscribed to both TradingView Premium and CME Real-time Market Data which allows us to identify trading set-ups in real-time and express our market opinions. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com Disclaimer: The contents in this Idea are intended for information purpose only and do not constitute investment recommendation or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products or services. They serve as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate fundamental concepts in risk management under given market scenarios. A full version of the disclaimer is available in our profile description. Reference: www.cmegroup.com www.cmegroup.com www.cmegroup.com
CBOT:ZL1!Short
by inspirante
15
Soybean Oil Futures ( ZL1! ), H4 Potential for Bullish RiseTitle: Soybean Oil Futures ( ZL1! ), H4 Potential for Bullish Rise Type: Bullish Rise Resistance: 64.60 Pivot: 61.66 Support: 59.90 Preferred case: Looking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for ZL1!is bullish due to the current price being above the Ichimoku cloud , indicating a bullish market. Expecting price to retest the pivot at 61.66, where the overlap support and 23.6 % Fibonacci line is before heading towards the resistance at 64.60, where the overlap resistance and 61.8% Fibonacci line is. Alternative scenario: Price could head back down to break the pivot at 61.66, where the overlap support and 23.6 % Fibonacci line is, before heading towards the support at 59.90, where the previous swing low is. Fundamentals: There are no major news.
CBOT:ZL1!
by Tickmill
Soybean Oil Futures ( ZL1! ), H4 Potential for Bullish RiseTitle: Soybean Oil Futures ( ZL1! ), H4 Potential for Bullish Rise Type: Bullish Rise Resistance: 64.60 Pivot: 61.66 Support: 59.90 Preferred case: Looking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for ZL1!is bullish due to the current price being above the Ichimoku cloud , indicating a bullish market. Expecting price to retest the pivot at 61.66, where the overlap support and 23.6 % Fibonacci line is before heading towards the resistance at 64.60, where the overlap resistance and 61.8% Fibonacci line is. Alternative scenario: Price could head back down to break the pivot at 61.66, where the overlap support and 23.6 % Fibonacci line is, before heading towards the support at 59.90, where the previous swing low is. Fundamentals: There are no major news.
CBOT:ZL1!Long
by Genesiv
Weekly Forecast (December 27 – 30, 2022)Uptrend scenario An uptrend will start as soon, as the market rises above resistance level 65.75, which will be followed by moving up to resistance level 67.80 and if it keeps on moving up above that level, we may expect the market to reach resistance level 70.55. Downtrend scenario An downtrend will start as soon, as the market drops below support level 63.50, which will be followed by moving down to support level 61.55 and 59 – 58.35.
CBOT:ZLH2023
by AntonKolhanov
SOYBEAN OIL // long term scenariosI don't know anything about Soybean Oil, but I watch the price that shows everything I need to know. This is quite a long term one since it's the weekly, but it's so beautiful! Although the primary trend is still long, market participants printed a nice impulse wave on the way down. This last couple of slow waves make up a correction of the impulse wave while crawling up, and price has just tested the last weekly south breakout. From here, the break of this countertrend takes aim at this market , shorts will be ready to jump in. An early sign happens first with the break of the last weekly north breakout, but the second one is better. If price reaches it, be patient. It may slow down there, even make a small countertrend, but a break of this zone can take the price all the way to the next weekly north breakout, that's happen to be close to the target fibo 138.2 The early sign becomes valid only when this week's closing makes the breakout a breakout (higher than the previous high). The countertrend is valid at the moment, but the daily printed a nice shooting star... Thanks for reading my analysis!🤘🏽 Trade safe and let me know what you think! ⚪️⚫️ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ANYWAY, a lot of Qs about the direction of the price. But it doesn't matter. WE JUST REACT! Remember that trading is a business. SIZE your TRADES according to your risk aversion! ----------------------------------------------------------
CBOT:ZL1!
by TheMarketFlow
1
Soyabeen Oil commodity USA Sun Storm Investment Trading Desk & NexGen Wealth Management Service Present's: SSITD & NexGen Portfolio of the Week Series Focus: Worldwide By Sun Storm Investment Research & NexGen Wealth Management Service A Profit & Solutions Strategy & Research Trading | Investment | Stocks | ETF | Mutual Funds | Crypto | Bonds | Options | Dividend | Futures | USA | Canada | UK | Germany | France | Italy | Rest of Europe | Mexico | India Disclaimer: Sun Storm Investment and NexGen are not registered financial advisors, so please do your own research before trading & investing anything. This is information is for only research purposes not for actual trading & investing decision. #debadipb #profitsolutions
CBOT:ZL1!
by Sunstorminvest
Review of multiple markets7. 19. 22 Euro futures 6E1! Dxy Wheat ZW1! Soybean oil ZL1! This is a quick review of a few tradable futures markets. I show what attracts me to look at a market, and sometimes that requires that I use much larger time frames. I used to Euro futures as an example of longer-term trading and give some possibilities for Traders who don't want to DayTrade as much as they want to hold longer-term positions. I am not an expert on using Futures currencies for qualified accounts, but you should be able to trade Futures currencies in your IRA... check with your broker. I was a little sloppy with my Fibonacci numbers, but this is nothing new and I don't have time to do another video, and I know most of you will be able to know what I'm saying. The numbers are on the chart, my description what's less than perfect, as usual. The most important point on this video is to find a market and a time frame that you relate to. It is very easy to bypass great opportunity because the timeframe you are evaluating and your initial biases don't connect with a true opportunity of that market.
CBOT:ZL1!
by ScottBogatin
How do we ride through the selloff storm?Joining a global commodities rout, Soybean Oil had a rough time in the past 2 weeks, tumbling close to 22%. The move precipitated after breaking the 6-month uptrend and has struggled to find support until now. After bouncing off the $65 support level and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, prices seem to have found a floor, ready to make the next leg upwards. Zooming out to the daily candles, we see Relative Strength Index (RSI) deeply oversold, with only 2 other occasions since 2015 where the RSI reached such levels. One was in 2015 and the other one in 2020.The 2015 instance was followed a 50% price increase from the low of the RSI and the 2020 one was followed by a massive 196% price increase. The sharp selloff, strong support levels, and historical precedence allow us to favor the long side for Soybean Oil. Entry at 66.87, stops at 58.3. Target at 78.9. Disclaimer: The contents in this Idea are intended for information purpose only and do not constitute investment recommendation or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products or services. They serve as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate fundamental concepts in risk management under given market scenarios.
CBOT:ZL1!Long
by inspirante
Potential Bearish ContinuationPreferred Case: on the H4, with price moving in a descending trend channel and moving below the ichimoku cloud, we have a bearish bias that price will drop from the pivot at 80.73 in line with the 78.6% fibonacci projection and swing high to the 1st support at 76.83 in line with the horizontal swing low and 78.6% fibonacci projection. Alternative scenario: Alternatively, price may reverse off the pivot and rise to the 1st resistance at 84.40 in line with the swing high. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
CBOT:ZL1!Short
by Rockqet
1