SMCI trade ideas
SMCI: Breakout Ahead?Daily Chart:
On the daily chart, SMCI is forming an ascending triangle pattern, a bullish continuation signal. The price has been making higher lows, suggesting accumulating buying pressure.
The resistance level around 972.44 is crucial. If the price breaks above this level, it could signal a continuation of the uptrend. However, if it fails to break through, it might revisit the lower boundary of the triangle or even the 21-day EMA, potentially testing investor sentiment and patience.
Weekly Chart:
In the weekly chart, the stock is exhibiting a flag pattern, typically a bullish continuation pattern formed after a strong upward move. The price has been consolidating between the 38.20% and 50.00% Fibonacci retracement levels, which often act as support during pullbacks. A breakout above the flag pattern's upper boundary could resume the prior uptrend, potentially reaching new highs. Conversely, if the price breaks below the lower boundary and the 50.00% retracement level, it could signify a deeper correction, possibly toward the 61.80% retracement level.
Conclusion:
Considering both time frames, SMCI is currently in a consolidation phase with bullish potential. The key levels to watch are the resistance at 972.44 on the daily chart and the boundaries of the flag pattern on the weekly chart. A break above these levels could confirm the continuation of the uptrend. However, caution is warranted if the stock fails to break these resistances, as it might signal a possible retracement or a period of further consolidation. Therefore, monitoring these levels closely will be crucial in anticipating the stock's next significant move.
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Remember, real trading is reactive, not predictive, so let's stay focused on the key points described above and only trade when there is confirmation.
“To anticipate the market is to gamble. To be patient and react only when the market gives the signal is to speculate.” — Jesse Lauriston Livermore
All the best,
Nathan.
SMCI Excellent short-term buy opportunity.Super Micro Computer (SMCI) has been trading within a Channel Up pattern since the April 22 Low, with every Bullish Leg registering at least a +35.80% rise. The price is now just below the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) and the final technical confirmation that's needed is for the 4H MACD to form a Bullish Cross.
As a result, this is an excellent short-term buy opportunity. Or Target is $1050 (just below the +35.80% mark).
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🍌🍌 SUPERMICRO — AI BANANAS RECOVER FROM THE BEARISH HUGSIt’s hard to believe that only a few short years ago, Super Micro stock was trading for $10 per share. Now that it’s hovering near the $1,000 area.
And Yes, SMCI stocks are still Top #1 over the all S&P500 components with +217% YTD performance in 2024, and +471% 12-months performance.
Supermicro is an American company, a major manufacturer of motherboards, cases, power supplies, cooling systems, SAS controllers, Ethernet and InfiniBand. The company specializes in the production of x86-server platforms and various components for servers, workstations and data storage systems. The headquarters is located in San Jose, USA. Founded in 1993.
Supermicro, Inc., a provider of end-to-end IT solutions for cloud computing, artificial intelligence/machine learning, storage, and 5G/Edge communications, continues to expand its data center portfolio with NVIDIA end-to-end rack cabinet solutions HGX H100 equipped with liquid cooling systems.
Supermicro's advanced liquid cooling technologies help reduce time-to-commissioning, improve performance levels, and reduce data center operating costs while dramatically reducing energy efficiency.
It is estimated that when using Supermicro liquid cooling systems (compared to air-cooled data centers), data centers save up to 40% in terms of power costs. In addition, direct cooling costs can be reduced by up to 86% compared to existing data centers.
In technical terms, SMCI shares are strongly above 26- and 52-weeks SMA, while a classic scenario 'recovering from bearish hugs' is happening right now.
SMCI BreakoutI posted a bearish idea on SMCI earlier in the week, based on a resistance level I had around 928, but also included a bullish path because if that level didn't hold the break above could result in a quick move back to the $1,022 area.
Here's another chart with a more bullish perspective. Elon announced plans for SMCI to collaborate with Dell and NVDA to work on infrastructure for Grok. As long as stocks continue to hold up, this is yet another reason for the market to pump semis and particularly SMCI. NVDA is sitting at ATH while SMCI is over $300 off ATH.
As for the chart, we have a descending trendline breakout that held on a retest and it's approaching a recent double top around $970. This is the most critical area for more to the upside for now. If it's able to break above, it could provide a nice long opportunity on a retest, or it might not retest for quite some time. There is great potential for another long leg up on SMCI. I'm still questioning the validity of this rally, but that doesn't really matter. If we keep pumping, calls should be the play until something changes.
Super Gains with Super Micro Computer Through the End of OctoberSuper Micro Computer (SMCI) is a good candidate to watch.
When the RSI moves above the moving average, a significant upward movement is likely.
Currently, the stock may still be in a consolidation phase, which could end by the end of August.
When the Bollinger Bands move closer together, a breakout is imminent.
The stock has been trending primarily in one direction: upward.
Looking back, what did you miss out on ?Recent Developments: Super Micro has introduced several new products and initiatives that have fueled its stock performance. Notably, the company launched a ready-to-deploy liquid-cooled AI data center, optimized for NVIDIA Corp AI Enterprise software. This innovation is designed to accelerate generative AI adoption across various industries, providing significant cost savings and enhanced performance.
SMCI - Super Micro Computer Inc - 50% move to all-time high?SMCI is approx a 50% gain away from all-time highs. Do you think the chip industry will rally again? How long do you think it will take to gain momentum? Price is currently hovering near the 100 EMA. This could be a good place for a bounce. Add SMCI to your watchlist?
SMCI Short Term Bull with retest of 760 possibleSMCI's price movement today has been overdone. I foresee another pull, but the overall semi-story with NVDA out of water is still good. Without any material macro event, it will retest its all-time highs. However, due to the turning tide in favor of DELL and other integrators gaining traction, it will eventually fall hard.
In Simple words, I see a 760 Retest before hitting an all-time high of 1230 but eventually falling back to 600. Hence, this is a nice trade idea only for whoever wants to ride a huge beta in the Options trade.
What will the end of the rally look like.The SMCI gives us a good indication of what the end of the rally looks like.
The SMCI has gained as much as 66% over the three-week period, and the difference between the weekly highs and lows has been very, very large.
Since then, the stock has tumbled more than -45%.
The stock has since rebounded slightly like a rubber band, but has returned to a downward trend.
This is typical of the lead stocks coming to the end of the rally.
SMCI's earnings are amazing.
Sales growth is 200% and EPS growth is 368%.
But what's wrong with the stock price?
This tells us that a lot of stocks are coming to an end regardless of their earnings.
That's because many professional investors sell their shares before earnings get worse.
But this is not to say the end of SMCI.
The SMCI may be able to build up enough energy over a long period of time, and then regain its former glory. I don't know when that would be.
Upcoming soonSuper Micro should follow Nvidia. Price is bouncing off the uptrend line support. I think is going to start to consolidate within the triangle to finally break up. I just bought some, I'll keep adding at every pull back. It might take a few more weeks. SL triggers if a weekly candle breaks down and closes below the lower vortex.
SMCI Short TradeI took a short on SMCI today. I had posted a bullish and bearish idea for it earlier in the week. Neither of those have triggered yet. I took this trade because it failed at previous lows and a trendline shown here. My target would be either the most recent lows we made or the trendline support slightly below that. It can still breakout to the upside here as well, wouldn't want to be short if it takes out the trendline it failed at today.