GNRC watch $114.19: Minor but Key fib to end Perpetual DowntrendGNRC has been trying to paint a bottom for the last month.
Now watching the Genesis fib at $114.19 for Break or Reject.
If it rejects then we will watch double fibs at $107.66-107.72
GNRC trade ideas
GNRC | Long | Post-Correction Recovery| (June 23, 2025)GNRC | Direction: Long | Key Reason: Post-Correction Recovery & Strong Fundamentals | (June 23, 2025)
1️⃣ Insight Summary
Generac has pulled back significantly, presenting a potential long setup. With strong recent earnings and solid revenue drivers, a bounce targeting extended levels looks appealing.
2️⃣ Trade Parameters
Bias: Long
Entry: Current range ($200–$210) after correction
Stop Loss: Just below recent support ($190)
Take Profit 1: $231 (near-term upside target)
Take Profit 2: $275 (mid-range resistance and earnings catalyst zone)
3️⃣ Key Notes
✅ Revenue & Profitability: TTM revenue ~$4.95 B with net income around $566 M
✅ Valuation Profile: Market cap (~$3.6 B) is below annual revenue, suggesting deep reset potential
✅ Established Provider: Founded 1959, headquartered in Wisconsin—leader in energy technology solutions including generators, backup power, and parts
❌ Debt & Cash Flow: Substantial debt ($1 B), but matched by strong cash generation ($500 M), making it manageable
✅ Technical & Sentiment Landscape: Bullish analysts have maintained positive targets ($142 consensus), and current price dip may offer a value entry
⚠️ Catalysts to Watch: Leadership/legal scrutiny (class-action request filed recently) could create volatility
4️⃣ Follow‑up Note
Watch earnings and legal developments closely. A decisive bounce above $231 would set the stage for an extended run toward $275. Ahold above that would validate longer-term strength.
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Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Always conduct your own research. This content may include enhancements made using AI.
Examining the recent chart patterns and news for GeneracTechnical Observations:
Pattern Recognition: The chart exhibits what looks like a cup and handle formation, a bullish continuation pattern, suggesting an upcoming rise if the pattern completes with a breakout above the handle.
Resistance Zone: There’s a clear resistance zone marked between approximately $149 to $160. A breakout above this zone could lead to a swift move towards higher price targets.
Ichimoku Cloud: In one of the charts, the price is above the Ichimoku cloud, which typically suggests bullish momentum and potential support from the cloud below.
Volume Profile: The visible range volume profile indicates a significant point of control around the $134 area, where the most volume has been traded, offering a substantial support level.
MACD Indicator: There's evidence of bullish convergence in the MACD indicator, hinting at growing upward momentum.
Market Sentiment and News:
Analyst Ratings: Recent analyst upgrades, with price targets raised to $150, contribute to a positive sentiment.
Executive Moves: The appointment of a new Executive Vice President may be interpreted as a strategic move for corporate development and could be a catalyst for growth.
CEO's Actions: The sale of shares by the CEO could be interpreted in various ways, but without context, it doesn't necessarily indicate a lack of confidence in the company’s future.
Market Performance: The mention of Generac being on track for a significant winning streak could build investor confidence.
Trade Strategy Synthesis:
Long Position: Initiate a long position as the price action completes the cup and handle pattern, confirming the bullish sentiment.
Entry Point: Target entry near the base of the cup or on a pullback to the handle, near the $134 level, leveraging the volume profile's point of control as support.
Profit Targets: Set a first profit target just below the lower bound of the resistance zone, around $147, to capture profits from a potential breakout. Further targets would be placed incrementally up to $160, in line with the upper resistance boundary and analyst price targets.
Stop-Loss: A stop-loss would be appropriate just below the base of the cup to minimize potential losses should the pattern invalidate, ideally around the $125 mark, which provides a buffer from the support level yet respects the risk tolerance.
Size and Scale: A $5,000 investment represents a calculated risk, aligning with the robustness of the technical setup and current market sentiment.
In conclusion, both the technical and sentiment-driven narratives are coalescing into a strong bullish case for Generac. The execution of this trade would hinge on disciplined entry and exit strategies, keen observation of volume-driven support zones, and adaptability to news-driven market shifts. It’s a considered blend of chart patterns, market sentiment, and corporate dynamics, positioning to capitalize on what could be the early stages of an extended upward trend for GNRC.
Generac Holdings Inc.: A Structured Trade Strategy Capitalizing NYSE:GNRC
seekingalpha.com
I'm considering a strategic trade with Generac Holdings Inc., drawing from the technical analysis I've conducted and the latest financial data available. The key financials underscore a robust business model with significant revenue from Residential products, which could be indicative of a stable customer base and a potentially growing market for home generators.
Generac's performance in growth and profitability, especially the revenue trends and EBIT margins, shows resilience. I observe that the company maintains a solid operational efficiency with a consistent EBIT margin, which reassures me about the management's ability to control costs and generate profit from their revenues. Such financial health is essential for sustaining the company during market fluctuations and for long-term growth, which aligns with my criteria for investment.
Despite a challenging market environment, Generac's revenue estimates demonstrate that analysts have confidence in the company's ability to grow its top line. This forward-looking optimism is supported by the latest earnings estimates, which reflect a consensus that could be considered conservative, potentially leaving room for positive surprises.
Considering dividends, Generac's policy seems prudent, focusing on reinvesting in the business rather than high dividend payouts. This strategy suggests a reinvestment in growth, which could drive the stock's value higher in the medium to long term. This aligns with my investment approach, as I prefer companies that prioritize sustainable growth over short-term shareholder returns.
Turning to the capital structure, the mix of debt and equity appears balanced, ensuring financial flexibility. The company's ability to service its debt is not in question at the moment, which is key for me when considering an investment, especially in a potential volatile market.
From a valuation standpoint, the PE ratio seems reasonable given the industry and the current market conditions. It’s neither at a high premium, which might deter me, nor suspiciously low, which could indicate underlying issues.
Combining these observations with the technical picture, which suggests an opportune entry point, I would strategically buy into Generac with a target to scale out at key resistance levels identified in my technical analysis. I'd set a stop loss to protect my capital, recognizing that while the company's fundamentals appear sound, market dynamics can shift rapidly.
Thus, my trade idea is to initiate a long position at the current levels, with a plan to gradually take profits at predefined targets, and to strictly adhere to a stop-loss strategy. The underlying financial stability and growth prospects of Generac, coupled with a favorable entry point on the chart, form the basis of my trading decision. It's a balanced trade-off between potential reward and risk, consistent with my investment principles and risk tolerance.
On the technical side, the recent price action of Generac displays a stabilization pattern after a significant pullback from its peak. The stock is currently trading near a key level of historical support, which suggests a strong potential for a price reversal or at least some consolidation before any further movement.
As a trader, this piques my interest. I see an opportunity in the convergence of the oversold condition and the support level, hinting at a reduced downside risk. The price level is compelling enough for me to consider an entry, with a view that any rebound in the stock could lead to substantial gains. Given the stock's previous performance, the current price seems like a discount on its intrinsic value.
I notice a Fibonacci retracement level around 61.8% coinciding with this support zone, which is often where many traders look for price reversals. This adds another layer of technical confluence to my analysis, enhancing my confidence in this potential entry point.
I plan to execute a phased buying strategy, entering the stock incrementally to average out any volatility. I would allocate a portion of my portfolio to acquire shares at this level, reserving capital to add to my position if the price dips further within the identified support range.
Looking at the previous price movements and considering typical market behavior, I set my profit targets at the levels where the stock has shown resistance in the past. These targets are not chosen at random; they are strategic points where the stock has previously encountered selling pressure, which could happen again. As the price appreciates, I intend to scale out portions of my position, locking in profits while still participating in any additional upside.
To manage my risk, I place a stop loss just below the recent lows. This is not far from the current price, minimizing potential losses if the trade does not go as anticipated. It's a level that, if breached, would invalidate my analysis and suggest a deeper bearish sentiment than I currently perceive.
This measured approach allows me to capitalize on Generac's current market position while limiting my exposure to unforeseen market shifts. With the stock's fundamentals as a backdrop, I have further reassurance that my technical entry is soundly based. This combination of technical and fundamental analysis forms the foundation of my trade plan for Generac Holdings Inc.
- **Entry Zone:** Based on the technical support levels and the Fibonacci retracement, I’ll start buying shares in the range of $125-$135, assuming this is where the stock has shown a tendency to rebound in the past.
- **Scaling into Position:** I’ll allocate an initial $5,000 to purchase shares within the entry zone, with readiness to incrementally buy more if the price dips to average down the entry cost.
- **Profit Targets:**
- First target at $180, a previous resistance level where I’ll sell a portion of the holdings to secure initial profits.
- Subsequent targets at $260, $300, and $340, which align with past resistance areas and psychological price points. I will continue to scale out of the position at these levels to capitalize on potential upward moves.
- **Stop Loss:** A tight stop loss will be set between $50-$54 to protect the investment from a substantial drop, which would suggest a more bearish scenario than anticipated.
- **Capital Allocation:** This trade would be a calculated portion of my portfolio, ensuring diversification and risk management.
- **Market Conditions:** I will remain alert to market trends and economic conditions that could impact the stock’s performance, ready to adjust my strategy accordingly.
- **Financial Health and Growth Prospects:** The company's stable EBIT margins and revenue growth strengthen my confidence in the longevity of the investment beyond short-term trade gains.
- **Risk Assessment:** Generac's balanced capital structure and reasonable PE ratio compared to industry standards provide a cushion against investment volatility.
- **Dividend Policy:** The company’s focus on reinvestment over dividends reassures me of its growth-oriented strategy, which can potentially lead to a higher return on my investment through stock price appreciation.
GNRC showing sign of an uptrend comingHey traders, I've been watching GNRC and I think it's ready for a bounce. It's been in a downtrend for a while, but it's showing some bullish divergence on the RSI and MACD. It also broke above the 20-day EMA, which could act as support. I'm looking for a long entry around $350, with a stop loss below the recent low. My target is $400, where it could face some resistance from the 50-day EMA. This is just my opinion, not financial advice. Trade with caution and good luck!
Generac Stock (NYSE: GNRC) Leading The Way The latest results from Generac Holdings (GNRC 14.34%) -- released this morning -- seem to show that the worst is over for the maker of power generators, and investors are breathing a sigh of relief.
Results rebound after a bumpy summer
Generac makes power generators for homes and businesses. Given the number of headlines in recent years about massive storms and overwhelming demand stressing the power grid, it should be a great time for a business like Generac, but the company has struggled in recent months.
In August, shares of Generac plunged after the company reported lower revenue and the company cut guidance. The company said at the time that it was dealing with inventory issues and soft demand from consumers, and warned that given the uncertain nature of the economy, it was hard to say how the rest of the year would work out.
Investors got part of that answer on Wednesday when Generac released third-quarter results. The company earned $1.64 per share in the quarter on revenue of $1.07 billion, besting Wall Street expectations for $1.51 per share in earnings on sales of $1.04 billion.
Residential product sales were down 15% year on year, but a 24% uptick in commercial sales helped to offset some of that decline. Generac also saw gross margin rebound to 35.1%, from 33.2% a year ago, on lower raw material costs and streamlined logistics.
Notably, Generac backed its previous guidance for full-year revenue to decline by 10% to 12%. The company also said it expects robust free cash flow in the months to come.
Even with today's gains, Generac shares are still 38% below where they were prior to the August announcement of quarterly results. Indeed, the consumer business is still under pressure. But investors should take solace in hearing that the declines came in as expected.
Investors should be warned that there could be more volatility ahead, but Generac is a leading name in an important category. The concerns about extreme weather and the fragility of the power grid are not going away.
For those with a long-term mindset and the ability to handle near-term headwinds, Generac remains an intriguing pick to capitalize on some of those major energy trends.
GNRC - trending upAnother typical example of a stock breaking up (into a new uptrend) after forming a base:
1. Broke out of the neckline and did a classic retest of this neckline a few days later, affirming the neckline as the new support
2. trading above it's 200 day moving average
3. Golden cross for additional confirmation that the stock is in "recovery"
Recent volume was not exceptional though, hence how far the stock could rise remains to be seen. Initial stop loss just under 131 (below most recent pivot low @ 131.35).
Watch out for earnings expected around 26 July. Might be prudent to take some profits off prior to earnings release.
Disclaimer: Just my 2 cents and not a trade advice. Kindly do your own due diligence and trade according to your own risk tolerance and don't forget that money management is (probably the most) important! Take care and Good Luck!
GNRC a Wyckoff Reset in the making Accumulation PhaseGNRC
Stock Price:102.78
Difference: $6.50 (undervalued)
Over all Avg Price: $109
My Enterprise Value Price(enterprise value/outstanding shares): HKEX:122
True Price Value (market cap/outstanding): HKEX:104
Float Price (market cap/float): FWB:108
Market Capitalization: HKEX:6 ,470,000,000
outstanding shares: 62,030,000
float : 59,730,000
ev value: 7,550,000,000
p/e :18.98
eps : 5.41
PE ratio: 18.99815157
Weighted P/e: 2.5219906
Basically all this is saying is no matter how you look at the avg price of this stock, the current price is undervalued by min $2.00.
The Big Picture
Past
The last time GNRC moved off its low right after the same Monthly Push down to start the process. Watch the lines see them converge. You don't understand these lines because you haven't been listening to me rant. These lines are every time frames Marriage of price and vol in one line. Along with the skinnier line with no kinks as the vol avg for that time frame.... When all these lines converge into one area along with price, accompany that with a larger time frame and you have something like what a rail gun is compared to a sling shot. the first move reaches then comes back down reloads and is launched double or more. and then its off and running.
Present
at double the price look at the lines... price is just under it and the lines are in a $15 range....what's needed to get them together? another push down? Time? a pop in price? Lets look at the supply vs the demand
A closer look
I marked the areas of the candles that had the highest percentage of buying and selling since it hit this zone. There are two bounces once it gets pushed down. I am not saying this won't go down. I am saying that at this price its a good deal. Depending on if they use the earnings on May 05 as a catalyst to run this up and back down then launch or this takes off before hand and the earnings is used to drop it to regain the final part of the float and make all of these lines converge.....one way or the other it starts at this price point. Look at the institutional ownership and where they bought? The top 17 Institutions that bought into this stock all bought on Dec 31, 2022. Every single one of them increased their position by more than 500%.
I will do you one better, the top position holders of this stock, institutional, all bought or increased their shares on Dec 31, 2022. All 83 institutionals that own the most shares bought or adjusted thier shares on that date and the price range for that date was. $95.50- HKEX:103
Cup and HandlePrice is at the resistance of a prior gap down (window).
Earnings beat but did not clear the resistance of the the left side of the cup as of yet.
No recommendation.
Some would calculate targets for a cup using the depth of the cup, applying fib levels and project those levels from the point of breakout. I usually use 10 cents higher than the left side of the cup, but volatility of the security can make a difference as well.
I see a rounded bottom with no pointed ends of a W pattern or Rising Wedges noted.
I avoid cups with a W in them as they are not usually well rounded at the bottom.
GNRC: Possibly a long!Rarely trade this, but its on my list. My watch list. Things are getting interesting.
Tradingview doesn't support GIFS, but they should.
In the absence of the gif, here is a 0.01 second clip to express my feelings right now.
If this breaks out of this bear flag to the upside it will be interesting.
This stock moves fast. Like really fast. It doesn't play games. SO a break out will be aggressive.
Here is a close up view of what I am seeing on the 4 hour:
That's pretty much it, pretty straight forward.
Its not a stock I trade much so I don't have much else to add. Just something to watch out for!
Safe trades everyone!
