ORCL trade ideas
THE WEEK AHEAD: ORCL, GDXJ, TBT, TLT, SMH, OIHEARNINGS
ORCL (50/29) releases earnings on Wednesday after market close, so look to put on a play in the waning hours of Wednesday's New York session.
Pictured here is a non-standard short strangle, with the short call side doubled up in order to compensate for greater than one dollar wide strikes: 1.30 credit, break evens at 48.70/58.15, and delta/theta of -5.52/58.15.
As of Friday close, the June 21st to July 19th monthly volatility contraction is from 46.6% to 29.3% or about 29.7%.
Look to manage intratrade by rolling the untested side toward current price on approaching worthless with a 50% max take profit target.
Generally, I don't play stuff this small that doesn't have dollar wides, since rolling intratrade can be a headache, as can rolling out, since there is limited strike availability. It's really another aspect of liquidity, which is not only about the width of markets intraexpiry, but also about the availability of expiries out in time, as well as strikes.
BROAD MARKET
EEM (27/20)
QQQ (23/20); NDX (24/20)
IWM (23/19); RUT (25/19)
SPY (21/15); SPX (19/15)
EFA (16/13)
With 33 days to go in the July cycle and 61 to go for August, we're kind of in the "in between" for the 45 days 'til expiry sweet spot, so I would wait until August comes closer into view for either broad market or sector if you want to keep things in that 45 days 'til expiry wheelhouse.
SECTOR EXCHANGE-TRADED FUNDS
Top 5 By Rank: GDXJ (62/31), TBT (52/24), TLT (51/12), SMH (50/31), OIH (49/40).
SINGLE NAME WITH EARNINGS IN THE REAR VIEW
A lot of earnings start kicking off in the July cycle, so would wait to play these as earnings announcement volatility contraction plays instead of wading in here and getting caught in a volatility expansion.
ME PERSONALLY
To keep things simple, mundane, and boring throughout the summer months, I'm looking to just to play broad market for the next couple of cycles -- SPY/SPX, QQQ/NDX, and IWM/RUT. (See, e.g., RUT Sept Iron Condor below).
Oracle $ORCL breaking out of two year box rangeORCL also seeing monthly RSI break out and MACD looks to cross bullish
ORCL Short Price rejection at 51.50 . The hourly chart was broken but recover and forming a double top or M . This might takes weeks for a nice drop.
ORACLE Sell IdeaORACLE Sell Idea @Monthly Supply Zone (50.70 - 53.44)
Sell Limit: 50.50
Stop Loss: 53.70
Take Profit: 40.54
Risk Management = 0.01/$100, With Stop Loss
Risk Management = 0.01/$200, No Stop Loss
Recommended Leverage not to exceed 1:50
Recommended Risk Ratio 1:2 – 1:3
Close partially the contract once it reaches 50% of profit, Move stop loss over the entry level
Close partially the contract once it reaches 80% of the profit
ORACLE: POTENTIAL HARMONIC PATTERN ON THE MAKINGORACLE is still in a downtrend. Look to the price action on the level posted on chart for a potential completion of this harmonic pattern
Are we finishing a wave 4 and wave 5 lower sub level?Are we finishing a wave 4 and Wave 5 lower sub level?
ORCL SpeculationGood day traders. Here we have ORCL stock charts. Bigger picture is suggesting to be short. As we look at the lower time frame here, we can see supply above and some ok demand below. The levels further away from price are the more significant levels; however, you can short at either supply zone.
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ORCL - Oracle stock dominated by mobile architecture JavascriptORCL
Oracle (large cap.) offers a 1.59% dividend with current stock prices.
Dividend has not been raised since end early 2017 and overdue.
Top Oracle Software Exec. taking leave of absence per WSJ 9.7.18
Oracle 5G CUPS is new control and user plan software architecture partially introduced in 4G & to be fully integrated in 5G and help support cloud data integration & support SaaS.
* Dividend $0.19/Q, or 0.78/yr, which at $47.81 is a 1.59% yield.
* 5G will generate profits in late 2019 and slightly earlier for SaaS services
* Key markets healthcare, transportation, blazing internet, smart cities, energy security, aka billions of devices coming on-line
* In Aug. a pension fund started lawsuite with Oracle, accusing them of farbricating cloud sales and creating unstable sales model. In reviewing their chart, they are just like the spikes of major telecomm stocks associated with 1G-2G-PDA-3G-4G-4G LTE and soon 5G in 2019-2020.
* The past year was anything but stable for ORCL, which is more like telecomm stocks than IT/Software stocks.
* #needstodiversify
This posting is for own reference. Come to own conclusions. Comments welcomed.
THE WEEK AHEAD: ORCL, KR EARNINGS: EWZ, TSLA, CRONEarnings:
ORCL: Announces Thursday after market. Rank/IV: 74/31. Sept 21st 68% Probability of Profit 20 delta 45/50.5 short strangle: .79 credit.
KR: Announces Thursday before market. Rank/IV: 54/37. Sept 21st 72% Probability of Profit 20 delta 30/35 short strangles: .60 credit.
Non-Earnings:
EWZ: Rank/IV: 97/48
TSLA: Rank/IV: 95/57
GDX: Rank/IV: 68/30
USO: Rank/IV: 62/26
FXE: Rank/IV: 53/8
Others of Note:
CRON: Background IV at 138% on volume of 24.1 million shares. Oct 19th 70% Probability of Profit 9/19 short strangle: 1.30 credit.
See also (for other cannabis-related underlyings):
TLRY: Background IV at 135% on volume of 9.02 million shares.
CGC: Background IV at 98.5% on volume of 13.1 million shares.
Oracle - Long PlayProbability play for a move to the upper tend line, which would be around the 50% fib range (50.17)
I like the way it rejected the lower trend line and the EMA34 and is trading above it now.
Oracle ShortLosing business to Amazon. Bearish engulfing daily candle on increasing volume. Broke below 200MA on volume.
