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ES3 trade ideas

Bowling overThe derivatives of the daily PPMs are crossing over, or already crossed over. This looks like price has found a top and is getting ready to bowl over. Note that yesterday's sell off had breached the lower limit of the trading range. This means that there will be either a breakout to the down side (which looks most probable according to the PPMs) or a retest of the lower end of the trading range to see if yesterday's sell off was a bear trap. Those without positions just sit back and wait for this to play out while the bulls and the bears need to set their stops accordingly. The weekly chart is still showing an in trend PPM1 hence why the price stopped dropping at the 10 SMA. However do note that the PPM 1 is barely holding on. At 0.158, it is not far off from dropping. The algos on the weekly is also showing signs of a top, with the 10 SMA curling down over the next few weeks. It's hard to be bullish at this point in time even though it's the start of the year. Let's see what happens over the next few sessions to see how the algo reacts.
SGX:ES3
by tanreu
Retracing With the downward momentum out of the way, price looks to start regaining momentum again. It may be limited to this week though, as the algos on the PPMs show a reversal again after a couple of days. Weekly chart is not able to provide much information for this week as the PPMs 2 and 3 are not in any trend, hence there's nothing preventing the price from dropping through the 21 and 40 SMAs. All in all, price may reverse momentum for early week trading only to stabilise or reverse back down again in mid to late week. However, we will have to wait for the algos to update to refine our expectations.
SGX:ES3
by tanreu
Expect more range tradingDaily PPMs are not showing any sign of momentum at the moment, hence price is expected to linger around it's current range for a few trading sessions. The PPM1 on the weekly chart is back in trend again, even if downward facing for this week. So I expect some easing of the downward pressure on price. Today is a Friday, and next week is predicted to have an upward momentum on the PPM1 so the trading range for the next few days could be following a slight upward drift.
SGX:ES3
by tanreu
Weekly 10 SMA in the cards?With none of the daily PPMs in trend mode, yet the PPMs 1 and 3 forecasting more downward momentum, the outlook for the week looks dismal. That said, forecasted downward momentum doesn't mean down trend. Price is still a long ways to a down trend. Looking at the weekly chart, none of the PPMs are in trend mode too. However, PPM1 is nearly there, having lost its uptrend momentum this week due to the volatility. Could we expect movement to the 10 SMA? Maybe. But even if it does, it might not hold as the PPM1 is likely to be trend-less by then. Price first has to cross below the 21 SMA though, which now stands at around 3.226. The PPM2 has been gaining momentum this week, so I expect price to receive some support there.
SGX:ES3
by tanreu
Weekly SXT Buy Signal HitThe weekly SXT buy signal was hit in yesterday's trading session. This meant breaching the 40 SMA at 3.261. However this was not surprising considering the PPM 3 was nowhere near trend mode. This meant that the 40 SMA held no significance in that session. Now that the SXT buy was hit, price seems to be rebounding in early trade today. Note however that the PPM 2 is still not in trend mode, hence it plays no role as well. Only PPM 1 is in uptrend mode but it is way out of the market grid for this week hence price is unlikely to get there. Moving on to the daily chart, the PPMs are all just barely in trend or out of trend. Looking at the algos, the prediction is a slight upward bias for all 3 for now. This is congruent with the algos on the SMAs which show upwards angle of attack for the 3 SMAs. Thus I expect movement back above the 10 SMA for now, followed by an extension upwards till probably around 11/1 before momentum is lost and price moves back to test the 21 SMA.
SGX:ES3
by tanreu
Daily PPMs looking to flatten outWhile the daily PPMs are still looking to flatten out, it doesn't change the fact that the over-zealous selling we are seeing now was caused by the santa rally that overshot the high fib targets in practically 1 session. A likely scenario now would be a test of the 10 SMA at 3.244 before bouncing back up. The scenario mentioned yesterday about a blip may not be so true considering the algo on PPM 1 has dipped at the end to reveal a drop back to the no trend zone. The weekly chart still shows signs of a rebound after this and next week's dip though. Hence I'm thinking we would stall here for a couple sessions to find a trading range before continuing.
SGX:ES3
by tanreu
Test the SMA?The price is still range trading towards the top of the band, but the PPMs are still signalling a return to the SMAs soon. Especially the 10 and 40 SMA. Hence we could see a return to 3.2 to test the 10 SMA, and if it doesn't hold, we could see a dip down into 3.18. However, it seems more likely that 3.2 will hold as the PPM algo does not look like it wants to dip below the 0 line. The weekly chart is also semi-positive with the angle of attack of the 10 SMA being very aggressive. Hence we may see a January spike again. However the PPM 2 is still in downtrend territory despite the algo pointing to a return to 0 line at an aggressive pace. My guess is that the 21 SMA may be a ceiling for this week but not the next. Looking at the algo for the 21 SMA, it needs the price to overshoot it before it can turn around.
SGX:ES3
by tanreu
Against all expectations?Price action today seems to be going against the daily PPMs for now. The algo on PPMs 1 and 3 are showing more moderation instead of a downside bias. There are also new upside fib targets today. While it is still too soon to say if they will hit, they are within range of the upside fib targets on the weekly chart. So while I expect some more sell side bias today, there may be some upwards momentum building underneath this selling. After all the weekly chart still looks like it wants to jump.
SGX:ES3
by tanreu
Meandering downFrom the looks of it, the PPMs have topped and are on the way down. Same goes for the SMAs. While the longer period SMAs are still relatively flat, the short term 10 SMA is losing steam and turning downward. This puts a damper on price establishes a short term ceiling. I would expect some drifting downwards over this week as the PPMs work their way into the SMAs. However, it is best not to get overly bearish too soon as the weekly chart still shows some positive momentum over the next few weeks.
SGX:ES3
by tanreu
Momentum LostJudging from the angle of attack on the SMAs, we can see that the momentum that was built up over the past week has been lost. The PPMs second that as well. We can see that the PPMs are all predicted to head down after today's session. Considering none of the PPMs are in trend mode yet, this means momentum has been lost even before it could start. I don't think there will be a massive sell off after today's session though. It looks to be more of a range-trading scenario where price tries to find a range to settle down in over the next few trading sessions. That said, on the weekly chart, this week is looking to be a down week followed by a move up to test the 21 SMA. Still, that doesn't change the fact that both the PPMs 1 and 2 are in down trend and below at least one derivative. So bulls should still be at least somewhat tight with their stops.
SGX:ES3
by tanreu
Momentum sizzlingMomentum seems to have waned over the last 2 days. The selloff following the initial spike had taken the wind out of the sails of this rally. Algos on the daily PPMs have gone flat. Hence I would expect more range trading over the next few sessions. However, once we move over to the weekly, we see that the algos on the SMAs are drawing a move for the 10 SMA up to the 40 SMA at 3.258. If this materializes, I would think that the price would have to push upwards to meet the 40 SMA at the minimum. After all, mathematically speaking, the average can't move up unless new numbers added into the group that are above the current average. That said, price will have to contend with the 21 SMA which is currently in down trend and providing heavy resistance overhead. So while possibility of moving up is there, there is also resistance midway.
SGX:ES3
by tanreu
Strength remainsFor now it seems like some of the strength of Friday's rally still remains even after yesterday's retracement. PPM 1 is on its way to trend mode. However PPMs 2 and 3 are still languishing around no-trend territory. Hence for now I'll still be cautiously bullish. The angle of attack on the 10 SMA is still strong, indicating that this moving average is still on its way up. As always, market does not go up or down in a straight line, so expect some pullbacks along the way.
SGX:ES3
by tanreu
Daily momentum starts to pick upWe had some indecision in the market yesterday, with a doji-like candle by the end of the trading session and both ends similarly long. It may seem like the selling has abated somewhat. However, note that the PPMs are all still negative even if they are not in trend. Yes, they are starting to gain momentum, but the SMAs will still need some time to reverse and price will still need some time to revert back up. That said, momentum is reversing for now. We can see the algos on all the daily PPMs looking to go back up over the next few trading sessions. Do not expect this rally to bring new ATH though, this counter is not that volatile and the weekly chart is still looking bleak, with the PPMs 1 and 2 still in down trend. But the algo is predicting PPM 1 to soon start having an upside bias and PPM 2 to soon start reversing. PPM3 is not playing ball yet, so the 40 SMA will likely be overhead resistance. Note that the first high fib target is currently below the 21 SMA on this time frame, so expect that to be the 1st sign of resistance.
SGX:ES3
by tanreu
Bottom in?Looking at the daily and the weekly, it seems like the sell-off is gradually starting to taper. The daily 10 SMA is looking to do a 180 turn and the PPMs support it. There may be another one more session of continued selling for the stop-hunters but by and large, I would think the downside could be limited. Of course, being still in no-trend territory, all the PPMs will need to do more work to get price moving back up again, so it may be some sideways trading while waiting for the PPMs to catch a wind before price goes back up.
SGX:ES3
by tanreu
Low fib targets still in playPPMs are still pointing towards a downward momentum for the next 2 or so trading sessions. However after that, it is pointing back up at a recovery. We are still looking at a short sell off incoming. For some reason, the low fib targets are still in play. But the market grid is already narrowing bit by bit. The trading range has already narrowed quite a bit and is probably looking to break out. Look to the low fib target at 3.148 to be the first line of support to the downside. After that sell off though, we may see a formation of a bottom followed by a gradual recovery. We should see a batch of new high fib targets by then.
SGX:ES3
by tanreu
Dead cat bounce?With the algos on both the PPMs and the SMAs pointing downwards, the momentum of the relief rally seems to be short lived. Especially looking at the projected sharp drop in PPM 2 going forward into the next 2 trading sessions, it looks like the 21 SMA is going to be a hard ceiling to crack. Add to that both the faster moving PPMs are currently under their 2nd derivative, which means there is not likely to be any momentum behind any move in that direction. The weekly chart is signally it to be a down week just looking at the PPMs 1 and 2, though PPM 3 is still pushing up albeit without trend. Overall the situation looks bleak for the next few trading sessions and bulls may want to have a tight stop.
SGX:ES3
by tanreu