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NASdaq_ Bullish trendline check and breakoutToday the Nasdaq made a Bullish trendline check and breakout to the up-side. Looks to be a sustainable rally. Also the Ichimoku is breaking out on the daily. If you have hedge positions this the potential BULL rally you might need to manage those position through. Seems we are lining up for good news, Bullish narrative: Ukraine mineral deal, May 06-07 interest rate cut, trade deals with India, Japan, Italy Australia, Mexico, Russian Ukraine peace deal. after that who knows
OANDA:NAS100USDLong
by wolffarchitecture
2
Bearish StructureThe NASDAQ price action shows a clear bearish Elliott Wave structure, currently unfolding a 1-2-3-4-5 pattern. Price is in the corrective wave 4, potentially reversing around the 19,371.9 area, which overlaps with a previous supply zone. From the local high at 19,508.1, bearish momentum has increased, and we expect one final leg down toward wave 5, targeting the 19,053.1 level or even the extended 18,920 (200% Fibonacci) zone. Key levels: Resistance: 19,371.9 Support: 19,053.1 and 18,920 Potential strategy: Watch for a clear rejection around 19,370–19,400 to enter short positions targeting 19,050 or 18,920. Confirm with price action.
CAPITALCOM:US100Short
by JAG_Trader
NAS100USD: Bullish Continuation from Reclaimed SupportGreetings Traders, In today’s analysis on NAS100USD, we identify ongoing bullish institutional order flow, and as such, we aim to align our trading opportunities with this upward bias. Key Observations: 1. Retracement and Institutional Support: Recent price action shows a healthy retracement, with price finding institutional support at the rejection block. This was followed by strong displacement to the upside, resulting in a bullish market structure shift. This suggests the retracement may be complete, with further bullish continuation likely. 2. Reclaimed Order Block as Key Support Zone: Currently, price is approaching a reclaimed order block—a zone where institutions previously initiated buying before price traded higher. When price returns to this area, institutions often reclaim the zone to initiate new long positions. This reclaimed block is further strengthened by the alignment with a fair value gap (FVG), enhancing the zone’s validity as institutional support. Trading Plan: We will monitor this reclaimed FVG zone for confirmation of bullish intent. Upon confirmation, we will look to enter long positions targeting liquidity pools in premium pricing zones, where buy-side liquidity is likely to reside. Stay disciplined, wait for confirmation, and ensure the idea aligns with your broader strategy. Kind Regards, The Architect
OANDA:NAS100USDLong
by The_Archi-tect
NAS100 - Stock Market Waiting for a New Stimulus?!The index is trading above the EMA200 and EMA50 on the four-hour timeframe and is trading in its ascending channel. If the index continues to move upwards towards the specified supply zone, one can look for further Nasdaq short positions with a risk-reward ratio. Last week, financial markets experienced a brief sigh of relief as U.S. President Donald Trump appeared to ease tensions by signaling a limited retreat in the tariff war with China, sparking hopes for reduced friction. However, this optimism quickly faded once it became clear that Trump’s retreat was neither substantial nor impactful. From Beijing’s perspective, the trade war has transcended economic concerns, becoming an issue of national pride and sovereignty. As a result, China, the world’s second-largest economy, is not retreating as easily as Trump anticipated. This stance has evolved into a significant challenge for the White House. U.S. officials indicated that tariffs of 145% could be reduced within two to three weeks if an agreement is reached. Nonetheless, according to Chinese authorities, negotiations have yet to even begin, raising doubts about Trump’s negotiation tactics. Additionally, other concessions, such as reducing tariffs on American automakers, remain uncertain, and Trump has even threatened to raise tariffs on Canadian car imports. This environment not only fails to clarify U.S. trade policy but also deepens uncertainty for domestic businesses. Although the White House claims it is monitoring markets closely and Trump is eager to strike deals with key partners, these assurances have not alleviated concerns about the future of the U.S. economy. In the upcoming week, critical economic data could either intensify or ease current worries. On Tuesday, the Consumer Confidence Index for April and the JOLTS job openings data for March will be released. The highlight, however, will be the preliminary estimate of GDP growth, scheduled for Wednesday. The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model forecasts a 2.2% annualized contraction in the U.S. economy for Q1 2025. Meanwhile, a Reuters survey of economists projects a modest 0.4% growth rate, a significant slowdown from Q4’s 2.4% growth. Accompanying these reports, the ADP private-sector employment data and the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index will be published. The core PCE for March is expected to show a monthly increase of 0.1% and an annual rise of 2.5%, down from 2.8% previously. Personal spending is anticipated to maintain its 0.4% monthly growth, reflecting resilient household expenditures. Additionally, on Wednesday, the Chicago PMI and pending home sales figures will be released. Thursday will bring the Challenger layoffs data for April, but market focus will be on the ISM manufacturing PMI, expected to drop from 49 to 47.9. The week’s main event will be Friday’s release of the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report. Forecasts suggest job growth will slow from 228,000 in March to 130,000 in April, while the unemployment rate is expected to remain at 4.2%. Wages are projected to rise by 0.3%.If NFP and PCE data come in weaker than expected, market expectations for a 25-basis-point rate cut by the Fed in June could intensify, although the likelihood of a cut in May will remain low. Such data would likely be bearish for the U.S. dollar but could support equity markets if recession fears do not dominate sentiment. Some Federal Reserve officials have suggested that if economic conditions deteriorate significantly, rate cuts could start as early as June. Currently, the Fed has maintained high rates to combat inflation but may lower them to support growth and prevent a sharp rise in unemployment if necessary. Trump’s trade wars pose a dual risk of increasing inflation while hurting employment, complicating the Fed’s monetary policy strategy. Presently, the Fed is in a “wait-and-see” mode, but several officials indicated last week that cuts could begin if economic data worsens. Beth Hammack, President of the Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank, told CNBC on Thursday that the Fed might lower rates starting in June if signs of economic weakening due to Trump’s sporadic tariffs appear. Christopher Waller, a Fed Board member, stated on Bloomberg TV that he could foresee rate cuts if the labor market collapses but does not expect such a scenario before July. On Thursday, Waller remarked, “It would not be surprising to see an increase in layoffs and a higher unemployment rate, especially if major tariffs return. I would expect faster rate cuts once signs of severe labor market deterioration emerge.” These comments highlight the Fed’s current dilemma as it awaits clearer evidence of significant economic fallout from Trump’s trade wars. The Federal Reserve’s mandate is to maintain low inflation and unemployment levels. Its primary tool, the federal funds rate, influences borrowing costs across the economy. The Fed can stimulate growth by lowering rates or curb inflation by raising them. Economists warn that Trump’s tariffs present the risk of simultaneously driving up inflation while damaging employment, forcing the Fed to prioritize which challenge to address first.
CAPITALCOM:US100Short
by Ali_PSND
NAS100 Breakdown Watch: Bearish Structure Forms Below Key Highs1. Key Levels Yesterday’s High: 20,037.0 Yesterday’s Low: 19,658.8 Today’s High (so far): 19,912.4 Current Price: 19,844.4 Price is currently trading below today’s high and below yesterday’s high, but still well above yesterday’s low. 2. Structure & Market Flow The BoS/ChoCh (Break of Structure / Change of Character) indicator marks: Multiple BoS (green) up to the April 30th peak, showing bullish structure. A ChoCh (red) occurred just after the top on April 30, followed by more ChoCh signals, indicating potential short-term bearish momentum. Most recent price action shows consolidation between 19,840–19,912, forming a range after rejecting near today's high. 3. Moving Averages (3EMA) Blue Line (Short EMA - 20): 19,843.0 Purple Line (Mid EMA - 50): 19,840.3 Price is slightly above both the 20 and 50 EMA, which are now flattening — suggesting neutral momentum with no strong trend currently in place. 4. Market Context / Price Action The sharp rejection at 20,037 (yesterday's high) indicates supply pressure. Price wicked above today’s high before dropping below both EMAs. Price bounced around the 50 EMA and appears to be forming lower highs, showing bearish microstructure. Current structure looks like a potential distribution pattern. 5. Trade Ideas (Scenarios) A. Bearish Bias (High Probability if 19,840 breaks cleanly) Entry: Break and close below 19,840 with volume confirmation. TP1: 19,700 (just above yesterday’s low) TP2: 19,658.8 (yesterday’s low) SL: Above 19,912 (today’s high) This setup capitalizes on a rejection of key highs, a ChoCh confirmation, and fading bullish momentum. B. Bullish Scenario (Only if we reclaim today’s high) Entry: Strong 15-min candle close above 19,912, targeting 20,037 and beyond. TP1: 20,037 (yesterday’s high) TP2: 20,100–20,150 (psychological and recent rejection zone) SL: Below 19,840 This would be a breakout-retest continuation trade, but less favorable given current structure. 6. Bias & Recommendation Short Bias is currently favored due to: Repeated ChoCh signals Price trading below today's high and rejecting yesterday’s high Weak upside follow-through despite attempts to push higher Tight consolidation and lower highs forming near resistance
OANDA:NAS100USDShort
by MarkLeRoy
NAS100USD: Institutional Selling Initiated at Premium LevelsGreetings Traders, Today on NAS100USD, the market is currently operating within a clear bearish institutional order flow. In alignment with this directional bias, we are seeking selling opportunities supported by several key confluences. Key Observations: 1. Liquidity Sweep at Premium Pricing: Price has retraced deeply into a premium zone, sweeping the buy stops above a recent swing high. This suggests smart money is executing sell-side order pairing at extreme premium levels, utilizing retail liquidity for institutional distribution. When this occurs, price typically seeks rebalancing at fair value zones and continues toward discount levels. 2. Resistance at Fair Value Gap: Following the liquidity sweep, price encountered resistance at a previously identified fair value gap (FVG). This FVG has held effectively, reinforcing the bearish outlook and acting as a high-probability rejection zone. 3. Market Structure Shift (MSS): The market has now confirmed a bearish market structure shift, further validating the downside bias. This shift positions us to anticipate a continuation move. 4. Mitigation Block as Entry Zone: We are currently watching a mitigation block for potential re-entries. These blocks represent zones where smart money mitigates previous long positions and introduces new short positions in alignment with the prevailing trend. If confirmed, they offer a strategic point to enter short trades. Trading Plan: Monitor the mitigation block for confirmation and look to enter with the broader institutional trend. Targets will include fair value regions and deeper liquidity pools at discount prices. Remain patient and disciplined, and always ensure your analysis aligns with your trading plan. Kind Regards, The Architect
OANDA:NAS100USDShort
by The_Archi-tect
6
Trendline break out NAS100## Entry - Enter on 4H confirmed trendline breakout - Look for retest of broken trendline as support - Ensure price remains above key MAs on 4H - Verify with increased volume on breakout ## Risk - Stop below recent swing low/structure - Risk 1-2% capital - Size position accordingly ## Targets 1. 20000- 20200 as psychological level 2. 200 MA on daily timeframe 3. 1.5x risk-reward ratio ## Management - Wait for clean 4H breakout confirmation - Move stop to breakeven after momentum continues - Trail stop as price advances toward targets - Scale out at major resistance levels
FX:NAS100Long
by aryoTraderX
US100 Triangle Squeeze – Breakout or Fakeout?Hey Traders, Price is currently consolidating within a symmetrical triangle, squeezing between rising support and descending resistance. Two potential bullish scenarios on watch: 🔹 Scenario 1: Breakout above triangle resistance with confirmation → Potential rally toward the 19,200–19,600 zone. 🔹 Scenario 2: Short-term rejection at resistance → Pullback to triangle support or the 18,370 level → Then bounce for continuation to the upside. If the triangle breaks to the downside, I’ll be watching the 18,000 and 17,600 demand zones for a potential reaction. 📌 Key Levels: Resistance: 18,800 / 19,200 / 19,600 Support: 18,370 / 18,000 / 17,600 ⚠️ Not financial advice – just sharing market insights. – Mr. Wolf 🐺 #US100 #NAS100 #DowJones #Indices #PriceAction #BreakoutTrading #ChartAnalysis #TechnicalAnalysis #DayTrading #SwingTrading #TradingView
FOREXCOM:NAS100Long
by MrWolf10
NAS100 | 4H Bullish Breakout from Channel – Eyes on 19,970 ZoneNAS100 4H Chart Analysis Price broke out of a well-respected descending channel with a strong bullish push. Currently approaching a supply zone around 19,970, where we may see a reaction. Key Levels: • Resistance/Supply: 19,970 • Support: 19,450 / 18,823 Technical Notes: • Breakout confirmation above descending trendline • Clean retest zone formed at previous structure (around 18,800) • Watching for either a rejection at supply or continuation into 21,000+ Next Steps: • Waiting for confirmation: reaction or break of the 19,970 zone • Will look for 15m–1H entry if we get a pullback to structure
FX:NAS100
by charliee93
Navigating the Next Trend MoveOverall Trend: The price shows a clear uptrend, as indicated by the ascending channel (sloping yellow lines). The price has been respecting this channel, with higher lows and higher highs. Support and Resistance: Support: The 19,734.2 level (marked on the chart) has acted as a key support. The price bounced from this level after a correction. Resistance: The 19,849.6 level (also marked) appears to be a resistance zone, as the price has shown difficulty breaking above it on a sustained basis. Projection: The price is approaching potential resistance at 20,072.9, which could be a target if the uptrend continues. Indicators: 200-period EMA (blue line): The price is above the 200-period EMA, confirming the uptrend on this timeframe. The EMA is around 19,889.4, acting as dynamic support. Patterns and Structure: The price has broken out after consolidating near the 200 EMA and the support at 19,734.2, suggesting that buyers are in control. Possible Scenarios: Bullish Scenario: If the price breaks the resistance at 19,849.6 with increasing volume, it could head toward the target at 20,072.9. This would confirm the continuation of the uptrend within the channel. Bearish Scenario: If the price fails to break above the resistance at 19,849.6 and confirms the pin bar with a downward movement, it could correct toward the support at 19,734.2 or even the 200 EMA at 19,889.4. Trader Recommendation: Long Entry (Buy): Wait for a breakout and close above 19,849.6 with confirmation (e.g., a strong bullish candle or increased volume). The target would be 20,072.9, with a stop loss below 19,734.2. Short Entry (Sell): If a rejection at 19,849.6 is confirmed (e.g., with a bearish candle following the Pin Bar), consider a sell entry with a target at 19,734.2 or the 200 EMA, placing a stop loss above 19,849.6. Conclusion: The US 100 is in an uptrend, but the resistance at 19,849.6 and the Pin Bar suggest caution. Traders should wait for confirmation before entering positions, either to take advantage of the bullish continuation or a possible correction. Managing risk is key, especially on a 15-minute time frame, where volatility can be high.
CAPITALCOM:US100Long
by JAG_Trader
Breakout or Rejection at Key ResistanceSupport and Resistance Levels: Resistance: 19,856.6 is a key level where the price has recently been rejected. Support: 19,146.4 is a major support, with an intermediate level at 19,516.0 acting as a pivot point. Trend and Structure: The price has broken a descending trendline (white dotted line), suggesting a potential trend reversal from bearish to bullish. Currently, the price is consolidating between 19,516.0 and 19,856.6, indicating indecision. Indicators: EMA 200 (Daily): The price is below the EMA 200 (19,856.0), indicating that the long-term trend remains bearish until the price sustains above this level. Fibonacci: The 138% / 50% Fibonacci retracement level (18,950.0) has acted as support in the recent past. Bullish Scenario: If the price breaks and holds above 19,516.0 with volume, it could target the resistance at 19,856.6. A confirmed break above 19,856.6 (with a close above the EMA 200) could signal bullish momentum toward 20,000 or higher. Bearish Scenario: If the price fails to hold above 19,516.0 and breaks lower, the next key support is at 19,146.4. A drop below 19,146.4 could push the price toward 18,950.0 (Fibonacci level). Recommendation: Long Entry: Wait for a confirmed break above 19,516.0 with a strong close and volume. Target: 19,856.6. Stop-loss below 19,400.0. Short Entry: If the price rejects 19,516.0, consider a short with a target at 19,146.4. Stop-loss above 19,600.0. Monitor volume and price action near the EMA 200 for trend confirmation. Note: This analysis is for informational purposes only and not financial advice. Adjust based on your strategy and risk management.
CAPITALCOM:US100Short
by JAG_Trader