Economy - Moving ForwardWhat's expected of the economy?
For 2025, the stock market started strong, the three major U.S. indexes soared to its all-time highs, putting confidence in retail investors.
End of Q1, we've seen a shift in the market due to tariffs and the start of a trade war. Why are the tariffs bad for the U.S. economy?
The biggest problem with tariffs is that it could drive higher prices in consumer goods through "taxes" in imported goods. It also causes disruption in supply chain, slower economic growth, retaliation from foreign countries, etc. The economic data also shows signs of a possible recession.
Not everything is lost.
Asian countries such as Japan, Korea, and Indian are taking in the lead in trade talks with Donald Trump. China has given exemptions to certain U.S. goods in order to ease the trade war, leading to a potential trade talks with the economy giants, the U.S. The 90 day reciprocal tariffs are also an opening for talks.
Let's see how it goes.
SPX trade ideas
SPX500 I Bearish Drop Based on the H4 chart analysis, we can see that the price has just reacted off our sell entry at 5522,70, which is an overlap resistance.
Our take profit will be at 5371.29, an overlap support level.
The stop loss will be placed at 5685.38, which is an overlap resistance level.
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Trading Notes - April 26th
I’m struggling to stay bearish on US stocks-bearish in the short-term as the sentiment is now mainstream. The negative news dominating the headlines could create a lot of potential for a surprise upside move in the near term.
Yesterday’s steady SPX rally, despite no news, was impressive. We could easily rally another 2-4% in the short term. The sharp downside move over the last couple months does leave potential for a local lower high which would be concerning.
If there are trades to be made, intraday ranges is where I’d put my focus on stocks (and not be tooo greedy). Bitcoin has the potential the put in a macro reversal if it closes the week strong. A swing trade entry at the 200 daily MA on BTC is still in play.
SPX Technicals
Volume profile:
POC: $5609
Upside interest: $5750
Downside interest: $5303
The line in the sand over the next 2 months is the 5120 level - the August 2024 low. If we close June there, 6M bearish divergence on the RSI leaves potential for a prolonged bear market. But that’s enough long-term analysis at a news-driven time when technicals have little bearing on price action.
What I’m focusing on this week:
- Sizing down
- Taking quick profits
- Watching trump’s tweets
S&P 500 - Key Levels and Measurements (Bonds vs Yields vs Homes)Happy Friday!!!
Starting with a BLANK chart, here are my key levels and measurements for the S&P 500
Earnings season is stable, more MAG 7 next week with AAPL, AMZN, META, MSFT
Trump and Company are softening the trade war narrative quickly and the market
is taking notice. Prices recovered nicely this week
5500 SPX is a key level for the bulls to push above - if done look for open space
melt-up into 5700-5800 resistance
If SPX rejects 5500 early next week we will be dealing with some more noise
and intermediate levels
4830 lows will be absolutely critical to maintaining a long-term bull market. You will
see why with this analysis.
Last piece is talking about bonds vs yields and the current housing market in the US
My belief is that yields stay sticky and home prices MUST drop to see any improvements
in affordability
Thanks for watching - have a great weekend!!!
SPX / SPY / ESM5 - Resistance levels aheadSPX is looking healthier above its shorter term MAs, particular with two closes above the 21 and downward trend line. There are still plenty of resistance areas ahead, including key fib levels, a gap fill, 100 and 200 down-sloping EMAs, and a swing symmetry level.
Unsustainable Market Trends I'm overall a bear but I think we'll probably make a new high. I've explained previously how a new high does not annul the bear thesis since there are various spike out patterns. Let's now talk about the unsustainable nature of what we're currently seeing.
First things first - trendlines going up at angles of over 70 degrees is not good! 35 - 45 degrees, good. That's quite sustainable. It can keep doing that. 70+, not good. It can not keep doing that.
I hate to speak in absolutes, but we can be fairly sure markets can not rise at this angle indefinitely without something really bad happening. Were this to happen, it would have to be a result of devaluation of the currency and although stock markets would be higher, everyone would be hurting. Especially average people.
A highly optimistic forecast of how this can end well would be after making gains markets go into a prolonged period of contraction. There's no more straight up price action but there's also nothing terrible to the downside. I can't really think of any examples of this ever happening. I guess the closest would be the big range before the 80s/90s breakout (But that was not like this into the high).
The most common outcome of markets going up at angles of over 70 degrees is they come down at angles of over 70 degrees!
I feel the moves of 2021 and 2023 have made the market exceptionally more risky. Markets looked extended in 2018 - 2019, but what felt like mania in 2018 was dwarfed in the following years with full years of rallies at angles above what is sustainable. It'd be highly uncommon for these moves to resolve without spiking out the low of where they started.
The tendency of parabolic moves to resolve themselves by trading under where the move started becomes increasingly worrying as we move further from that level. It's around 2,200 in SPX. Even if it came from the current high this would forecast a move worse than 2008. Were it to come from a bit higher, this would start to forecast a move on the scale of depression crashes (At least 80% and lasting at least 10 yrs without a new high).
What I am trying to say here is, if markets keep going up at angles of over 70 (And SPX really isn't far off 100 right now), something very bad is likely to happen. And it's looking likely SPX may do this. Markets may break and make a blow-off without further major retracements and this style of blow-off can be 20 - 25% above the last high.
This would give us estimates for a blow-off ending 6,000 area in SPX and just under 20,000 area in Nasdaq. Both of these would be drawing down at least 70% to break the low of where the excessive angle of buying started. While this is nothing earthshattering in terms of charting norms (What goes up comes down), this would be significant in the real world.
If this big spike out is coming, I think we're seeing the grand final act of the bull market. It will be the best it has ever been and it will be the best we're going to see it in a significant amount of time.
If markets continue higher at the same or steeper angles than the recent climbs (Especially if there's no big pullbacks) I think we'll have seen every single major warning signal there was at the top of rallies that would turn into multiple decade bears.
Another AB=CD formation for the S&P 500?Following a low of 4,835 on 7 April – which touched gloves with an ‘alternate’ AB=CD support (1.272% Fibonacci projection ratio) at 4,983 – the S&P 500 index is on course to pencil in an ‘equal’ AB=CD resistance (100% projection ratio) at 5,746. Notably, the 5,746 level is accommodated by a 1.618% Fibonacci projection ratio at 5,718, as well as a nearby 61.8% Fibonacci retracement ratio at 5,652.
Also of technical relevance, the market index has completed the dreaded ‘Death Cross’, which is the 50-day SMA at 5,645 crossing below the 200-day SMA at 5,746 (converges with the above-noted resistance zone), and suggests that a longer-term downtrend could be on the cards.
Option Insights – Trading the Greeks (Part 1 of 4): Delta Target# Option Insights – Trading the Greeks (Part 1 of 4)
## Delta Targeting
Options are often utilized by traders as a leveraged tool, akin to generating lottery tickets. By selecting the appropriate expiration time and strike price, it's possible to achieve significant leverage on an underlying asset, potentially yielding high profits in percentage terms, albeit with a low probability of occurrence.
However, trading options offers more than just directional bets on the underlying asset. Due to their dependence on various factors with distinct characteristics, option strategies enable flexible exposure management and innovative risk profiles.
To fully exploit the potential of options, risk factors are quantified using the **Greeks** – Greek letters (not all of them) that assess the sensitivity of option prices to changes in different risk factors ("primary Greeks") or second-order effects ("secondary Greeks").
### Primary Greeks:
- **Delta** – sensitivity to changes in the underlying price
- **Theta** – sensitivity to changes in time
- **Vega** – sensitivity to changes in implied volatility
- **Rho** – sensitivity to changes in interest rates
### Secondary Greeks:
- **Gamma** – rate of change of Delta with respect to the underlying
- **Vanna** – rate of change of Delta with respect to implied volatility
- **Charm** – rate of change of Delta with respect to time
- **Volga** – rate of change of Vega with respect to implied volatility
For trading purposes, **Delta, Gamma, Theta, and Vega** are the most critical Greeks.\
They are depicted in the introductory graphs for Call Options, showing their behavior as a function of the underlying price across various levels of implied volatility.
*(Graphs not shown here — you can add screenshots as image uploads if needed.)*
---
## Trading the Greeks: Delta
The art of trading options is fundamentally the art of managing an option portfolio by **trading the Greeks**. For short-term options (from same-day expiration, or 0DTE, up to about three months), **Delta** is the dominant risk factor. The influence of other Greeks is limited to a narrow range around the strike price — this range becomes even narrower as expiration approaches.
When managing an options position, **controlling Delta is the first and most critical step**.
- Delta values range from 0% to 100% for long calls and short puts
- From -100% to 0% for long puts and short calls
- Delta represents the participation rate of an option in the underlying asset’s price movement
Example:\
If an option has a Delta of 40% and the underlying asset moves by 10 points, the option’s price will typically move by approximately 4 points in the same direction.
Delta can also be loosely interpreted as the **implied probability** that the option will expire in the money — though this is only an approximation.
---
## Delta-Neutral Strategy
The most common Delta-targeting strategy is the **Delta-neutral strategy**.
It aims to hedge the Delta of an options position by taking an **offsetting position in a Delta-1 instrument**. These instruments replicate the price movements of the underlying asset (e.g., the underlying itself, ETFs, futures, or CFDs).
### Example:
- If an options position has a Delta of 40% and a notional exposure of 100 units
- → Take a short position in 40 units of the underlying (or equivalent Delta-1 instrument)
But:\
Delta is **not constant** — it evolves over time (**Charm**), with price changes (**Gamma**), and with changes in implied volatility (**Vanna**).\
This means the hedge must be **adjusted regularly** to maintain Delta neutrality.
Adjustments are typically:
- Made at discrete intervals (e.g., daily)
- Or when Delta changes by a set amount (e.g., more than 5%)
---
## Delta Target Strategy (More General)
The Delta-neutral strategy is a **specific case** of a broader **Delta target strategy**, where the Delta target is explicitly set to zero.
### Who uses Delta target strategies?
- Option **market makers** to hedge inventory
- Traders aiming to **isolate other risk factors** (e.g., volatility premium strategies like short strangles)
These traders seek to:
> **Capture the volatility premium** — the difference between implied volatility at entry and realized volatility after
Delta target strategies with **non-zero targets** are used for managing portfolio-level risk when options are used alongside other instruments.
---
## Why Adjust Delta Target Strategies?
The main reasons for adjusting:
- **Gamma (convexity)**: Delta changes as the underlying moves
- **Time decay**:
- For OTM options: Delta decreases (calls), increases (puts)
- For ITM options: Opposite behavior
- **Changes in implied volatility or skew**: also affect Delta
---
## Coming Up Next:
📘 *Part 2: The Concept of Convexity and the Role of Gamma in Managing Delta Target Strategies*
---
S&P500 Long and painful but necessary bottom formation.The S&P500 index (SPX) has been trading within a 2-year Bullish Megaphone pattern and the recent 2-month correction completed its latest Bearish Leg, as it reached the Higher Lows trend-line.
The massive rebound that took place there on April 07 may have turned out to be a highly volatile one but as mentioned on the title, it might be long and painful, but a necessary process nonetheless. That's mainly because it is the strongest correction since 2022 and the longest Bearish Leg of the pattern.
The market remains highly volatile until it gets a clear signal, bearish below the current Support of the 1W MA200 (red trend-line) or bullish above the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line). Despite the rather short-term uncertainty, the similarities with the Megaphone's previous bottom are uncanny, both having formed their Low on 1D RSI Double Bottom patterns.
Given that this previous Low initiated a massive +50% 1 year Bullish Leg/ rally, we expect to see at least 7100 on this next one by mid-2026.
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SPX 500 turns lower ahead of busy weekAhead of a busy week, the S&P 500 has found resistance at a key area of resistance near 5550. The Index had rallied in the previous three sessions, but with trade and economic uncertainty still at the forefront, investors are not rushing to chase this rally - and rightly so. May be they will still buy the dip as we head deeper into the week, though, given Trump's change of tone and optimism surrounding trade deals. For me the key support area to watch is around 5,300, but other areas of support including 5840 and 5400.
Beyond trade negotiations and trade concerns, a flood of traditional economic data is set to be released this week. Key highlights include PMI surveys from China and the US, first-quarter US GDP, the Bank of Japan’s policy meeting on Thursday, and the critical US nonfarm payrolls report on Friday. On top of all that, it’s the biggest week of earnings season, featuring results from Microsoft and Meta after Wednesday’s close, and from Apple and Amazon—four members of the so-called “Magnificent Seven”—reporting on Thursday.
By Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst with FOREX.com
April 28, 2025 - Broken Supply Chains, and the DC CircusHello everyone, it’s April 28, 2025. The week ahead promises to be spectacular (or a complete disaster) depending on which way the wind blows out of Washington. So far, the futures are down about 0.6% this morning, as everyone’s trying to cut risk ahead of a week crammed with Big Tech earnings ( NASDAQ:AAPL , NASDAQ:MSFT , NASDAQ:AMZN , NASDAQ:META ), a mountain of macro data (PCE, GDP, ISM, jobs), and of course, the never-ending Trump tariff soap opera.
On the US politics front, Trump stayed uncharacteristically quiet over the weekend, no new bombshells. But whispers about “talks” with China surfaced, without any real confirmation. Meanwhile, several countries are supposedly rushing to negotiate tariff deals with the US. Expect headlines (and chaos) throughout the week.
Supply chains are starting to crack. Container traffic from China to the US has plunged 60%, and if deals aren’t made by mid-May, we could be staring down empty shelves and layoffs in transport and retail sectors. Think “Black Friday” without anything to buy.
Meanwhile, the drama at the Fed continues. Kevin Warsh, still salty about not replacing Powell, attacked the Fed’s “media circus” style, blaming it for post-Covid inflation. Warsh wants the Fed to go old-school: shut up, protect the dollar, and stop playing superhero. No forecasts, no endless press conferences. Just cigars and silence.
On the macro side, this week’s economic data could turn into a horror show: weak jobs numbers, soft GDP, slowing PCE, all raising the probability of recession. If that happens, expect markets to start begging the Fed to cut rates sooner rather than later.
Assets snapshot:
• BLACKBULL:WTI : $63.36
• OANDA:XAUUSD : $3,307
• INDEX:BTCUSD : $94,000
In short: expect maximum volatility, endless surprises from DC, and a market that could spin on a dime. Stay sharp, stay skeptical, and brace for anything.
5800 Would le Optimal for a Bear SetupThe market is fast and ATR is high so I make sure I have plans to both sides so as not to be caught out, but realistically I've done hardly any trading since the day we dropped 6% and the rallied to retest the high. That was the last day I took big positions (longs which hit trailing stops for 300 points) and since then I've been mainly watching.
Spectating rather than speculating. There are times to make money and times to lose it, it's good to know the difference between them.
In a simple bear trend, we could see a high here somewhere in the 5200 - 5300 range - but to best suit the things I expect to see in a good bull trap before a real drop, I'd like to 5800.
SPX at 5800 would convince me to start trying to trade big positions short again.
S&P 500 Analysis Ahead of the Busiest Week of Earnings SeasonS&P 500 Chart Analysis Ahead of the Busiest Week of Earnings Season
Despite the fact that President Trump’s earlier decision to impose tariffs (at higher rates than expected) shook the stock markets, the S&P 500 index (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen) could still end April without significant losses (currently trading less than 2% below the month’s opening level) or even achieve a positive result.
According to media reports, around 180 S&P 500 companies are expected to release their quarterly earnings this week, including Apple (AAPL), Amazon (AMZN), Coca-Cola (KO), Eli Lilly (LLY), Meta (META), Microsoft (MSFT), and Chevron (CVX).
The share prices of these major companies — some of the largest by market capitalisation — could have a substantial impact on the S&P 500 index chart (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen), given that their combined weight accounts for approximately a quarter of the index calculation.
Technical Analysis of the S&P 500 Chart
Based on the key price actions marked on the chart, we can identify a descending trend channel for the US stock market, which has been in effect since mid-February.
At the same time, the price has:
→ moved into the upper half of this channel, reaching its upper boundary;
→ found support around the median line (as evidenced by the price action on 21 April).
These are bullish signs, reinforced by the aggressive nature of the rebound from the psychological 5,000-point level, which acted as significant support in the first few days following the tariff announcement. Bears may still see an attractive opportunity to attempt to resume the downward momentum of the S&P 500 index (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen), but will the fundamental backdrop support such a move?
From an optimistic perspective, sharp impulses driven by corporate news could lead to a breakout above the upper boundary of the red channel. This would likely be facilitated by important announcements (particularly from senior officials in the US, China, and Europe) regarding de-escalation of the tariff situation.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
$SPX Bull/Bear Line in the Sand – Fireworks Ahead?The S&P 500 ( SP:SPX ) is sitting just below a clear resistance level—a true bull/bear line in the sand.
On the one hand, bulls are eyeing a potential breakout into the weekend that could ignite a short squeeze or continuation rally. 🎆 On the other, Deutsche Bank, the last of the major bulls, has thrown in the towel—cutting their year-end target from 7,000 to 6,150 amid economic concerns.
This is where things get interesting. If we break above this resistance with volume, expect upside momentum. If not… this could be the start of a deeper rollover.
👉 Watch that overhead line closely. It's the fuse. 💣
🟢 Breakout = bull party
🔴 Rejection = potential for bearish reversal
S&P 500 Rockets Past Resistance-Is 5,728 Next?The S&P 500 (SPX) formed a double bottom pattern on Monday, April 7, and Wednesday, April 9, on the 4-hour timeframe, signaling a potential reversal from recent lows. Later on April 9, the index broke above resistance, confirming short-term bullish momentum. On April 24, the 20-period moving average crossed above the 50-period moving average, reinforcing the strength of the emerging uptrend. By April 25, a 4-hour candle closed above the 200-period moving average, providing further confirmation of a strong bullish trend. That same day, the SPX broke through the significant resistance level at 5,501, with a candle closing above this level, which supports the view of continued upward movement. Based on my technical setup, the next potential target is projected at 5,728.
Crash? Here's the case for a crash.
You may have noted I can, on occasion, be a bit of a bearish guy - but I don't actually use the word "Crash" all that much. Not all bear setups are crash setups. Even when they will be, a less dramatic bear move usually happens before a crash. The times when there's actual crash risk are low - but we have a confluence of them now.
Let's run through some crash signals.
1 - Pending 1.61 break. In any self respecting crash (anyone you know by a number for sure) the crash clearly picks up on a 1.61 break. If we drop again, we threatening that break.
www.tradingview.coem
Examples:
All the good ones, and other ones. Go look. You'll find over and over a downtrend transitions to a crash under the 1.61. The 1.61 either does not break- or we crash.
We currently have a bounce off the 1.27, retest of the previous structure and possible new sell off coming - these are things that can precede a 1.61 break.
Looking at local structure, this looks like a butterfly correction. Which is often found at or before the MIDDLE of a trend (crash).
Or an ABC.
Which would predict a drop stronger and bigger than the first (crash).
Then you have things like the 200 SMA bounce, those can get sketchy if there's a new low.
...Crash.
And we have the reason. Because although the technical norms I've explained here have been features in every notable crash ever, there was always a reason. Always something that would not be foreseeable with TA and would make the crash appear to be unpredictable.
The things that just seem too weird to be true unless take time to look into them.
Like Covid being a perfect 1.61 top.
Which started similarly to what we have here.
The Covid crash would start once the 1.27 broke- which is where we are now.
Conditions for a crash now are actually realistic. Generally speaking a crash is something that it's only valid to speak of potentially in the future in the event of multiple markers hitting. Lots of things have to happen before we have real honest and true crash conditions.
Unusual things. Like trending down consistently for a couple months.
Having insanely aggressive bounces off support but not really getting anywhere.
Containing a correction inside a 2 leg structure.
...Breaking a 1.61.
See where I'm going with this?
It might happen. If the low is not made, we enter into real crash territory on the next break.
Bearish WXY Model Forming at Key Resistance – Caution at the TopSP:SPX just crossed the Monthly High, but the structure resembles a bearish WXY correction, and we’re now approaching critical levels.
🔍 Key Levels to Watch:
5481–5572: Weekly FVG resistance + 61.8% Fib Extension – potential top of the rally.
5293: The 50% retracement from the Apr 20 low – a break below confirms the bearish WXY and opens the door to new lows.
📌 Scenario Outlook:
✅ Bullish case: Room for upside toward 5685–5750, but only if we close above 5572 Weekly to invalidate the FVG.
⚠️ Bearish case: Current price action aligns with divergence (as seen with DJI) + WXY model. Caution advised — rallies may be fading.
💬 Chart attached shows the WXY structure forming with key divergences.
S&P 500 tests key resistance as trade uncertainty continuesTrump continues to say positive things - just now suggesting that they are very close to a deal with Japan on tariffs. But it is China where the bulk of uncertainty lies. He has been quite upbeat this week, but China continues to push back against the optimism.
European indices extended their gains, buoyed by the previous day’s upbeat mood, while US futures have given up their earlier gains. The shift likely linked to an interesting interview US President Donald Trump gave to Time Magazine.
While Trump claimed Chinese President Xi had personally rung him — and insisted that negotiations with Beijing were progressing — it was his remark that he’d consider “50% tariffs a year from now” to be a success that seemed to spook investors. Unsurprisingly, that struck a more hawkish tone, nudging some traders to lock in profits.
Earlier in the session, risk appetite had been given a lift after reports surfaced that China was weighing tariff exemptions for select US imports. This, combined with upbeat comments from Trump the day before and a solid set of earnings from Alphabet, helped extend the rally in equities.
Gold, meanwhile, gave back some ground — dipping below the $3,300 mark — as safe haven demand cooled in response to the renewed optimism. Yet, beneath the surface, caution remains palpable. Trump’s off-the-cuff comment about 50% tariffs a year from now served as a stark reminder that nothing is set in stone, and that the trade saga is far from over.
As such, while some of the worst risk-off flows may be behind us, it’s far too soon to declare an end to the market turmoil. A period of consolidation — both in equities and gold — may now be on the cards.
Meanwhile the S&P 500 has entered a key area of resistance between 5490 to 5550 area. A bearish trend line also comes into play. A clean break should be positive from a short-term point of view, while a sharp rejection is what the bears would be looking for.
By Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst with FOREX.com