SPX500 trade ideas
How Gann’s Square of 9 Reveals Hidden Time Cycles in the US500In today’s fast-moving markets, most traders are stuck reacting, chasing signals, hunting for breakouts, and trying to make sense of noise. But what if you could predict where the market might turn, not just based on price, but on time itself?
That’s exactly what W.D. Gann mastered. His tools, like the Square of 9, weren’t just about charts, they were about timing the rhythm of the market. Today, I’ll walk you through a real-world example on the US500, using Gann’s time technique on the 5-minute chart. This isn't theory. This is how you can bring Gann’s legacy to life in real-time trading.
Step 1: Don’t Start on the 5-Minute—Zoom Out First
The first thing to understand is that not every swing high or low is meaningful. To apply Gann’s time analysis correctly, you must choose swing points that matter—and that means looking at the higher timeframes.
Before diving into the 5-minute chart, I always analyze the 15-minute, 1-hour, and 4-hour charts. If a swing high or low on the 5-minute lines up with a key support or resistance zone from those larger timeframes, that’s your signal. These are levels where institutions and big players act, and that gives your analysis a real edge.
So, once I identified a swing high and low on the 5-minute chart that aligned perfectly with a 1-hour resistance zone and a 4-hour support level, I knew I had something solid.
Step 2: Counting Bars – The Foundation of Time Analysis
From the chosen swing low to the swing high, the market took 9 bars to complete the move. That number isn’t just a count—it becomes our anchor in time.
Using my custom-built Gann Square of 9 spreadsheet, I plugged in this value. The spreadsheet then calculated future bar counts where the 45-degree time angle repeats, based on Gann’s time rotation principle.
The output gave us these key numbers: 16, 25, 36, 49, 64, 81
These are not arbitrary. They are time-based vibration points derived from Gann’s spiral math—each one representing a future window where the market is likely to shift.
Step 3: Letting Time Lead the Trade
Let’s walk through what happened at each of these time windows:
Bar 16: The market attempted to push higher—a classic manipulation move. Then came a sharp reversal. The 45-degree vibration was in effect. This was a textbook Gann-style turning point.
Bar 25: No sharp reversal, but momentum slowed and price started consolidating. This was a structural pause—just as important as a reversal for those watching intraday shifts.
Bar 36: This one was dramatic. The market had been falling, but as we approached the 36th bar, rejection candles started appearing. Selling pressure dried up, and buyers stepped in. Soon after, a bullish breakout followed. The time vibration had called it again.
Bar 49: After a strong bullish run, the price stalled and reversed almost precisely at this time point. This marked a shift back to bearish sentiment.
Bar 64: The downtrend lost steam. Price began forming a new swing low, and as we passed the 64-bar mark, bullish momentum returned. Another clean reversal.
Bar 81: The final vibration in this sequence. The bullish move slowed, candles shrunk, and volume faded. Then came a breakdown. A bearish turn right on time.
What This Means for You as a Trader
This sequence—from bar 16 to 81—is a masterclass in how time drives the market. It shows that price action is not random. It's governed by hidden cycles that most traders overlook. But when you apply Gann’s methods with precision, the market reveals its rhythm.
All we did was:
Identify a meaningful swing (validated by higher timeframes)
Count the bars between the swing low and high
Let the Square of 9 calculate the future time vibrations
From there, we simply watched and waited. And the market played out almost to the bar.
Conclusion: From Reactive to Predictive Trading
The real power of Gann’s techniques lies not in magic, but in mathematical and astrological precision. When you understand how time and price interact, you stop reacting—you start forecasting.
You stop chasing trades—you start anticipating reversals.
Gann’s Square of 9 isn’t just an old-school tool. With the right application, it becomes a modern forecasting machine. And with the help of tools like my custom spreadsheet, the entire process becomes simple, streamlined, and incredibly effective.
So the next time you’re about to take a trade, ask yourself:
Are you following price? Or are you following time?
Because when time is on your side, the market moves in your direction—not the other way around.
SPX path forwardThe SPX appears to be transitioning out of Wave 4 and initiating Wave 5 of the current Elliott Wave cycle. This breakout from Wave 4 suggests the final leg of the broader impulsive structure is underway, typically characterized by renewed momentum and trader interest.
At this stage, we can expect a pullback or bounce near the previous Wave 3 low, which often acts as a key support level during the early stages of Wave 5 development. Should this level hold, price action is likely to resume downward, completing Wave 5 within the projected target zone.
Downside targets for Wave 5 completion are currently in the 4,700 to 4,600 range, aligning with a typical Fibonacci extension (0.618–1.0 of Wave 1 through Wave 3) and previous structure zones that may offer confluence.
US500 BULLISH SYMMETRICAL TRIANGLEhi
Fundamental view
The **US500 index** dropped due to several key factors affecting the U.S. stock market:
📉 **Tech Stock Decline** – Technology stocks faced heavy pressure, especially after **Nvidia** plunged **6.9%** due to U.S. restrictions on AI chip exports to China. Other stocks like **AMD (-7.3%)** and **Micron Technology (-2.4%)** also fell.
💰 **Federal Reserve Uncertainty** – Remarks from **Fed Chair Jerome Powell** raised concerns in the market. Powell warned that new tariffs could trigger higher inflation and slow economic growth, making investors uncertain about interest rate policies.
🛍️ **Surge in Retail Sales** – Retail sales jumped **1.4%** in March as consumers rushed to buy before new tariffs took effect. This highlights economic uncertainty, pushing investors to sell their stocks.
Overall, a mix of trade tensions, uncertain monetary policy, and a tech stock sell-off caused the **US500 index to drop 120.93 points (-2.24%)** on **April 16, 2025**.
Technical view
Yes, the **bullish symmetrical triangle** pattern is often a strong signal for upward price movement. When the price moves within this pattern, it usually indicates a **tightening volatility** before a **breakout**, which can present a good market entry opportunity.
🔍 **Breakout Confirmation**
1️⃣ Increased trading volume when price breaks above the **upper trendline**.
2️⃣ A closing candle above the **triangle resistance** for a valid signal.
3️⃣ Price targets can be measured using the pattern’s initial height as a projection.
📈 **Potential Price Movement**
If the breakout happens, the price could surge toward the next **resistance level**. However, if the breakout fails and price moves below support, the pattern could turn **bearish**.
Warren Buffett famously said, “Be greedy when others are fearful.”
good luck
**My trading strategy is not intended to be a signal. It's a process of learning about market structure and sharpening my trading my skills also for my trade journal**
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SP500 & Oil Analysis: Elliott Waves a Fun Fact from RussiaI don’t track SP500 closely since I trade on the Russian exchange, where SP500 liquidity is thin 💧. But @Fewhale asked, so here’s my take:
📉 SP500 appears to have completed its consolidation and is now poised for a Wave 5 collapse. Note that despite the sprawling Wave 4, it doesn’t overlap with Wave 1 — aligning perfectly with Elliott Wave rules ✅.
Oil’s Looming Drop
🛢️ Oil is also gearing up for a significant downward move before a prolonged pause — mirroring SP500’s setup.
Fun Fact 🤓
Did you know Russian traders nicknamed the S&P500 "сиплый" (pronounced "sipliy"), which means "hoarse, husky"? That's because if you write "S&P" in Cyrillic letters, it becomes СИП (pronounced "sip")
Key Takeaways
1️⃣ SP500: Wave 5 drop likely after clean Elliott Wave structure.
2️⃣ Oil: Sharp decline ahead, similar to SP500’s trajectory.
⚠️ Reminder: Trade with your own strategy, not somebody else's charts! 📉❄️
💬 Your thoughts?
👉 Drop a comment: Are you betting on the crash or staying sidelined? 🎯
$SPX Monthly MACD Cross – Reset or Breakdown?The monthly MACD for the S&P 500 ( SP:SPX ) just crossed to the downside 📉 — a signal we’ve only seen a few times in the past decade.
Looking at the chart, this indicator also triggered during:
📉 2018 (Quick pullback)
🦠 2020 (COVID crash)
🐻 2022 (Extended bear market)
Now in 2025, we’re facing another sharp decline — but the question is:
👉 Is this just another quick reset like '18 & '20... or are we about to grind lower like 2022?
The MACD histogram is already in negative territory, and the price action is following the same pattern we saw before extended drawdowns.
What do you think: is this the beginning of something deeper? Or are we prepping for a snapback rally?
Drop your thoughts below 👇
More down for SPX500USDHi traders,
SPX500USD consolidated the whole week last week.
So next week we could see the start of the last impulse wave down to finish the bigger (red) WXY correction.
Let's see what the market does and react.
Trade idea: Wait for a small correction up on a lower timeframe to trade shorts.
If you want to learn more about trading FVG's & liquidity sweeps with Wave analysis, then please make sure to follow me.
This shared post is only my point of view on what could be the next move in this pair based on my technical analysis.
Don't be emotional, just trade your plan!
Eduwave
S&P 500 Daily Chart Analysis For Week of April 17, 2025Technical Analysis and Outlook:
In the recent shortened trading session, the Index recorded steady to lower prices, distancing itself from the Mean Resistance level of 5455, as indicated in the previous week's Daily Chart analysis. This trend establishes a foundation for continuing the downward trajectory, targeting the Mean Support level 5140. Should this downward momentum persist, further declines may extend to the next Mean Support level of 4970 and ultimately reach the completed Outer Index Dip at 4890.
Conversely, it is essential to acknowledge the possibility of upward momentum at the current price level, which may challenge the Mean Resistance of 5455 and extend toward the Outer Index Rally at 5550.
WILL THE S&P 500 COME CRASHING DOWN? TRIPLE RSI DIVERGENCE?!S&P 500 (SPX) Is considered to be one of the primary benchmarks for the U.S economy. Recently it appears to be showing a triple bearish RSI divergence, DMI indicating bearish with ADX above 20, and a bearish MACD on the 1 Month chart. The technical analysis seems to have a highly bearish hypothesis in my opinion. If we give some thought to Ray Dalio's Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order , some haunting indicators appear to be forming. Could this just be a minor correction? Or is this the beginning of an extended economic downturn?
Disclaimer: Not financial advice.
S&P500 Should the FED LEAVE POLITICS aside and finally cut??The S&P500 index (SPX, illustrated by the blue trend-line) has been under heavy selling pressure in the past 3 months, basically the start of the year, but Fed Chair Jerome Powell insisted once again yesterday that the Fed is on a wait-and-see mode, without the urge to cut rates. But can it afford not to do so?
A detailed look into the past 35 years of recorded Yield Curve (US10Y-US02Y) price action, shows that when it flattens and rebounds, the Fed steps in and cuts the interest rates (orange trend-line). It did so last year but paused/ stopped the process in an attempt to get Inflation (black trend-line) under control to the desired 2% target.
As you see on that 1M chart though, this hasn't always been beneficial for stocks as especially for September 2007 and January 2001, it took place parallel to the Housing and Dotcom Crises. This however happened both times when Inflation and Rates were both high.
The Inflation Rate now seems to be at a low level (and dropping) that has been consistent with market bottoms and not tops. As a result, it appears that it is more likely we are in a curve reversal that is consistent with bull trend continuation for the stock market, after short-term corrections, in our opinion either post March 2020 (COVID crash) or pre-2000, which is consistent to previous studies we've made that the current A.I. Bubble market is in similar early mania stages like the Dotcom Bubble in the early-mid 1990s.
So to answer the original question, we believe that the Fed can afford to cut the Interest Rates now and offset some of the medium-term slow in growth that the trade tariffs may inflict and as there are more probabilities it will do more good to the stock market than harm.
Your thoughts?
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Stock Markets Consolidate Ahead of the HolidaysStock Markets Consolidate Ahead of the Holidays
A lull is expected on the financial markets today due to a shortened trading week related to the Easter holiday celebrations.
It is reasonable to assume that traders will get a “breather” after a news-heavy April, which caused a volatile “shakeout” in the stock markets.
US Stock Markets
On Wednesday, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell was both cautious and somewhat aggressive in his forecasts regarding US monetary policy, stating that Trump’s tariffs could delay the achievement of inflation targets.
In response, US President Donald Trump accused Powell of “playing politics”, hinting at his possible dismissal.
European Stock Markets
On Thursday, the ECB cut interest rates for the seventh time in the past 12 months, and European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde left the door open for further easing.
Analysts had expected a rate cut from 2.65% to 2.40%, so the financial markets reacted relatively calmly to the ECB’s decision.
Technical Analysis of the S&P 500 Chart (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen)
On the charts of European and US stock indices today, a narrowing triangle pattern is forming, indicating a balance between supply and demand — in other words, price is more efficiently factoring in all influencing elements.
On the S&P 500 chart (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen), the triangle is highlighted in grey. The ADX and ATR indicators are trending downwards, which underlines signs of consolidation.
From a bearish perspective, the market is in a downtrend (marked by the red trend channel) — but from a bullish point of view, price is in the upper half of the channel.
Although the situation appears “reassuring”, the long weekend may bring a string of high-impact statements from the White House, which could disrupt the balance and lead to a breakout from the triangle.
It is not out of the question that the bulls may seize the initiative and challenge the upper boundary of the channel in an attempt to lay the groundwork for an upward trend (shown in blue lines).
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
Global Market Overview. Part 2 — U.S. Stock Indices Start of the series here:
Indices? What about the indices?
When the market isn’t an economy, but a chessboard riddled with landmines.
As much as we’d like to see rationality reflected in index charts, indices are not the economy.
They are derivative instruments that track the capital flow into the largest publicly traded companies. In our case — they serve as a mirror of the U.S. stock market. But here’s the thing:
There’s one core principle that most analysts love to forget:
Once interest rates are cut — the game flips bullish.
Cheap money doesn’t lie idle. It flows straight into corporate balance sheets. And one of the first strategies that gets deployed? Buybacks.
Share repurchases are the fastest way to inflate stock prices — without changing the product, the market, or even the strategy. It’s an old Wall Street tune. And it’ll play again the moment Jerome Powell gives the signal to cut. Even if he says, “It’s temporary,” the market won’t care — it’ll act automatically.
But what if the cut doesn’t come?
What if the Fed drags its feet, and U.S.–China relations fully descend into trade war?
What if instead of cheap money, we get a recession?
That scenario benefits neither the U.S. nor China. Despite political theatrics, the two economies are deeply intertwined. Much more so than their leaders admit.
The unspoken threat from China
If Beijing wanted, it could cripple the U.S. economy overnight —
Nationalizing all American-owned assets on Chinese soil, from Apple’s factories to Nike’s logistics chains.
If that happens, dozens of U.S. corporate stocks would be worth less than toilet paper.
But China doesn’t make that move. Because blackmail is not the tool of strategists.
Beijing thinks long-term. Unlike Washington, it counts consequences.
And it knows: with Trump — you can negotiate. You just have to place your pieces right.
Want to understand China? Don’t read a report — read a stratagem.
If you truly want to grasp how Beijing thinks, forget Bloomberg or the Wall Street Journal for a minute.
Open “The 36 Stratagems” — an ancient Chinese treatise that teaches how rulers think.
Not in terms of strong vs. weak — but when, through whom, and against what.
You’ll see why no one’s pressing the red button right now: the game isn’t about quarterly wins — it’s about future control.
The economy is built for growth. That’s not ideology — that’s axiomatic.
Argue all you want about bubbles, fairness, or who started what.
One thing never changes: the global economic model is based on growth.
No ministry or central statistical agency can stand before a microphone and say, “We want things to fall.”
Markets reflect future expectations. And expectations are, by definition, based on belief in growth.
Even crashes are seen as temporary corrections, paving the way for recovery.
That’s why people always buy the dip.
Not retail. Smart money.
Because no panic lasts forever — especially when the whole system is backed by cash.
The U.S. controls the market through headlines
This logic fuels Washington’s strategy.
Today, Powell “waits.”
Tomorrow, the White House stirs panic with tariff threats.
The day after — surprise! “Constructive dialogue.”
And just like that:
Markets rally, dollar corrects, headlines flip from “crisis” to “hope.”
It’s not coincidence. It’s perception management.
Markets crash fast — but they rebound just as fast, once a positive signal drops. Especially when that signal touches the U.S.–China trade front.
One line — “talks are progressing” — and by nightfall, S&P 500 is back in the green.
Why? Because everyone knows:
If there’s de-escalation — it’s not a bounce. It’s a new cycle.
The recovery scenario
Here’s what happens if negotiations progress:
The dollar weakens — capital exits safe havens
S&P 500 and Nasdaq spike — driven by tech and buybacks
Money flows back into risk assets — especially industrials and retail, exposed to international trade
Gold and bonds correct — as fear fades
We don’t live in an era of stability. We live in an era of narrative control.
This isn’t an economic crisis.
This is a crisis of faith in market logic.
But the foundation remains: capital seeks growth.
And if growth is painted via headlines, buybacks, or a surprise rate cut — the market will believe.
Because it has no other choice.
In the markets, it’s not about who’s right —
It’s about who anticipates the shift in narrative first.
SPX - uncertainty aheadThe recent events initiated by the POTUS destroyed all the trust in the global market structor. Uncertainty is the worst for Markets, trust is the key for investors to risk money and that is getting lost day by day.
If the course is not changed it is likely that we do see a sideway action for the next 6-7years till the dust settles. Nothing big to gain only a lot to loose at the moment.