DXY trade ideas
DXY start monthly bearish trend monitoring 94.8DXY start monthly bearish trend monitoring 94.8
whoever hate Trump tarif could just dump the dollar
it's a monthly bearish trend, need 1 or 2 year to go back to above 100
make cheap dollar, lower interest rate
will see a lot of new debt and print money before dollar fly again
DXY ... Dollar Index looks not as clean Gann reviewNot too much to explain here...just see the highlighted areas and see that the Gann box Stacking strikes again with some interesting levels. The light angles are kinds nice, but the most recent one where the price is now seems to be the only thing holding it back from being a green face smash to 96...
Mor Tariff... Mor pain for the Dolla Dolla Bill y' all
This is the larger picture and see as to how I come to these Gann box alignments:
Again...You just find pivots and span them with the box- then stack or slide them with points all being contiguous and you have your price action analysis.
Above chart is the weekly. Just imagine if there was any significance to the 2001 high and then the 2008 lows when it comes to geopolitics or financial situations....one could say:
Its almost like a twin peak, one with a tower on it, just suddenly got hit out of nowhere and then crashed down to the Great Financial Center down below..hmmm VV
Price Action + Fundamentals Point to Dollar StrengthThe current market environment presents compelling evidence for a bullish move in the US Dollar Index (DXY). While some patience is required, the setup is increasingly favorable for the dollar to appreciate in the coming weeks and months.
Key Factors Supporting a Bullish Move:
Monthly Close Above 100.160:
A critical technical level to monitor is the monthly close above 100.160. If achieved, it would signal a strong bullish breakout, setting the stage for a continuation higher. Given current price action and market dynamics, this scenario looks highly probable. However, if the price fails to close above 100.160 and instead breaks below it, we could potentially start looking for short opportunities.
Bond Market Strength (30Y, 10Y, 5Y):
This past week, we witnessed notable strength across the US bond market. Yields declined as prices rose, typically a positive signal for the dollar as it reflects capital inflows into US assets.
COT Report Insights:
The Commitment of Traders (COT) report reveals a critical shift: commercial traders, often considered the "smart money," are beginning to accumulate long positions in the dollar. This change in positioning historically precedes significant bullish moves.
Seasonal Patterns:
Seasonality also favors the dollar during this period. Historically, the dollar tends to strengthen in the mid-year months, aligning perfectly with the current technical and fundamental landscape.
Targets:
Initial Target: 106.120
Given the accumulation signs and supportive macro backdrop, a move towards 106.120 seems very realistic.
DXY Printing a Bullish Triangle??The DXY on the 1 Hr Chart is forming a potential continuation pattern, the Bullish Triangle!
Currently Price is testing the 99.6 - 99.8 Resistance Area and battling with the 200 EMA and 34 EMA Band. The reaction to this conjunction could be pivotal in who overcomes: Buyers or Sellers.
Now during the formation of the potential pattern, Price on the RSI has stayed relatively Above the 50 mark being Bullish Territory suggesting Buyers could win the Bull-Bear battle.
Until Price breaks either the Resistance Area or the Rising Support, we will not have a definitive direction in which USD will strengthen or weaken.
*Wait For The Break*
-If Price breaks the Resistance Area, USD will strength possibly heading to the 100.8 - 101 Area
-If Price breaks the Rising Support, USD will weaken possibly heading to the 98.5 - 98.3 Area
Fundamentally, it is said China and USA are possibly getting closer to potentially ending the Reciprocal Tariff War going on with both sides willing to negotiate.
With the USA being the #1 Consumer of Goods globally, other economies can not afford us to not buy their things so I continue to see the Tariff War more as a Strong-Arm for the USA to be able to negotiate better terms!
USD News:
JOLTS - Tuesday, Apr. 29th
GDP - Wednesday, Apr. 30th
Unemployment Claims / ISM Manu. PMI - Thursday, May 1st
Non-Farm Employment Change / Avg Hourly Earnings / Unemployment Rate - Friday, May 2nd
For all things Currency,
Keep it Current,
With Novi_Fibonacci
Viper Sunday Weekly forecast call. NFP week!On Sunday's we review the markets and look at structure, trends and Candle charts to see what possibly could happen in the week ahead. With a Pullback last week, the markets look poised to have a stronger week leading into NFP.
We cover US30, NAS100, Gold, Oil and Forex pairs. As well as DXY.
Trade carefully, always use proper risk management and this video contains no trade calls or expected results. It is for education purposes only.
DXY Bears in Control ,Will 99.000 Hold or Will 97.600 Be Tested?The US Dollar Index (DXY) remains under strong bearish pressure after failing to reclaim the 100.000 🔼 resistance zone. Price is currently consolidating below 100.000, maintaining a clear bearish structure of lower highs and lower lows.
Currently trading at 99.175, with
Support at: 97.600 🔽
Resistance at: 100.000 🔼, 101.500 🔼, 102.812 🔼
Bias:
🔼 Bullish: A breakout and retest above 100.000 could open room for a move toward 101.500 and 102.812.
🔽 Bearish: As long as price stays below 100.000, sellers remain in control. A breakdown below 97.600 could trigger further downside.
📛 Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Trade at your own risk.
can DXY change its trend after marking 3rd HLCurrently, the price is a bit away from touching the lower trendline, which is acting as a support level as it will be its latest HL. After that, it would be interesting to know how the dollar moves because, as technical analysis on the chart suggests, DXY should move upwards to maintain that parallel channel. Tariff event, war situation and couple of other major events will also play significant role in determining the next possible movement of dollar
DXY BREAKOUT IN PLAY — Smart Money is Moving!After a clean falling wedge formation, DXY is showing early signs of bullish momentum.
Price action respects the trendline support + bullish orderblock (green zone) beautifully!
Next targets: 101.000 — 103.000 zone.
Watch for pullback entries before continuation.
This is textbook falling wedge breakout behavior — stay sharp!
Levels Marked:
Support: 99.00 zone
Target Zones: 101.000 & 103.000
Breaker structure: Confirmed bullish
Save this setup & be prepared!
Is this the start of a massive dollar rally? Learn how .Price action (falling wedge breakout)
Institutional concept (BOS – Break of Structure, 78.6% Fibonacci retracement entry zone)
Liquidity zones (4H LQ and key levels marked in green)
Higher targets (institutional supply zones highlighted in cream boxes around 104-107)
DXY April 27 Week AnalysisDXY
April 27 Week Analysis
I suspected for Price to seek higher prices early in the week, not reflecting how much a magnet those key lows could be for Sundays delivery. Let that be lesson on the greed of manipulation of Prices piercing short that took place. WOW.
Notice how Price did seek inefficiencies from April 2022 to rebalance and how the bodies of the candles came right to my suspected key equal lows. WOW.
Notice how the wicks did the damage and the bodies stoped right on the FVG respecting the top side with its delivery.
Tuesdays range and energetic force to rally away from the .618 level and rebalance the NWOG.
After taking the key sell side not surprise Price took buy side on Wednesdays delivery and Prices wick came to CE of Tuesdays candle.
Thursday internal range taking minor sell side and rebalanced inefficiencies. Price creates equal lows.
April 25 Delivery
Price took buy side in Asia, expanded lower to create intermediate equal lows in London. In NY Price took those equal lows and closed in consolidation creating equal lows in a discount on previous range.
Note that Price closed above Thursday’s opening gap.
Note Price current range is delivering to a premium and Fridays closed in a discount previous range.
Note Price created a lower low on Monday.
Previously Sunday's deliveries have been met with manipulated volatility. I wait for Sundays delivery to occur and read what the chart gives me.
Logic says that Price just took minor buy side tapped the .618 and it might seek those clean equal lows. And as I already stated until Sunday delivers I wont speculate until after that. I do like the equal highs for Asia and London though.
Buckle up big week. Stay calm. Trade what the chart prints. Stick to your model.
DXYThe U.S. Dollar Index (USDX or DXY) is a measure of the value of the U.S. dollar relative to a weighted basket of six major foreign currencies: the euro (57.6% weight), Japanese yen (13.6%), British pound (11.9%), Canadian dollar (9.1%), Swedish krona (4.2%), and Swiss franc (3.6%). Established in 1973 after the Bretton Woods system ended, the index serves as a benchmark for the dollar’s strength in global markets.
How the Dollar Index Drives Trade Directional Bias in Forex
Indicator of Dollar Strength or Weakness
When the USDX rises, it means the U.S. dollar is strengthening against this basket of currencies; when it falls, the dollar is weakening. Since the dollar is the world’s primary reserve and trading currency, its strength heavily influences forex market trends.
Correlation with Major Currency Pairs
Inverse correlation with EUR/USD and GBP/USD: Because the euro and pound have large weights in the index, a rising USDX typically causes EUR/USD and GBP/USD to fall, and vice versa.
Positive correlation with USD/JPY and USD/CAD: For pairs where USD is the base currency, these pairs tend to move in the same direction as the USDX.
Commodity-related pairs like AUD/USD and NZD/USD often move inversely to the USDX due to their sensitivity to global risk sentiment and commodity prices.
Guiding Trade Decisions and Confirming Signals
Traders use the USDX to confirm directional bias in forex trades. For example, if the USDX is rising, it supports taking long positions in USD-based pairs or short positions in pairs where USD is the quote currency. Conversely, a falling USDX suggests caution on USD longs and potential opportunities in other currencies.
Macro and Sentiment Indicator
The USDX reflects broader economic conditions, U.S. monetary policy, and global risk sentiment. For instance, Fed rate hikes often strengthen the USDX, causing shifts in forex markets. It also acts as a proxy for the health of the U.S. economy and influences global trade flows.
Summary
Aspect Effect on Forex Trading
Rising USDX Dollar strengthens; EUR/USD & GBP/USD tend to fall; USD/JPY & USD/CAD tend to rise
Falling USDX Dollar weakens; EUR/USD & GBP/USD tend to rise; USD/JPY & USD/CAD tend to fall
USD as Base Currency (USD/xxx) Moves in line with USDX
USD as Quote Currency (xxx/USD) Moves inversely to USDX
Use in Trading Confirms trade signals, guides directional bias, gauges macroeconomic trends
In essence, the U.S. Dollar Index is a vital tool in forex trading, providing a consolidated view of the dollar’s strength and helping traders anticipate market movements and set trade directional bias accordingly.
DXY USD INDEX FORECAST Q2 W18 Y25DXY USD INDEX FORECAST Q2 W18 Y25
Professional Risk Managers👋
Welcome back to another FRGNT chart update📈
Diving into some Forex setups using predominantly higher time frame order blocks alongside confirmation breaks of structure.
✅ U.S. dollar index is a measure of the value of the dollar against a basket of six foreign currencies.
✅The currencies are the Euro, Swiss franc, Japanese yen, Canadian dollar, British pound, and Swedish krona.
💡Here are some trade confluences📝
✅ Break an d close below July 2023 key 100.00 levels.
✅ Foresee a pull back to, weekly imbalance, daily order block, daily 50ema, weekly order block and or weekly 50 ema.
✅ Awaiting to identify a significant break of structure bullish to use the DXY as confluence for our trading week 18 of Q2 toward key points of interest mentioned above.
✅ Forecasting continued bearish pressure long term.
✅Initially bullish outlook however upon price turn around. DXY to break 100.000 level again.
🔑 Remember, to participate in trading comes always with a degree of risk, therefore as professional risk managers it remains vital that we stick to our risk management plan as well as our trading strategies.
Pairs to look out for -
EURUSD
USDCHF
USDJPY
USDCAD
GBPUSD
📈The rest, we leave to the balance of probabilities.
💡Fail to plan. Plan to fail.
🏆It has always been that simple.
❤️Good luck with your trading journey, I shall see you at the very top.
🎯Trade consistent, FRGNT X
U.S. DOLLAR INDEX (DXY) | MACRO OUTLOOKWe’re currently trading at $99.58 — down 8.2% from the recent high around $114.77. Looking at this 12M chart, we see DXY failing to hold its breakout above the previous cycle highs.
🟣 Key Historical Levels:
Last major high: 1985 peak
Previous structure high: $121.18
Long-term support zones: $88.25, $75, and $72.81
🔻 Macro view suggests we could be entering another multi-year corrective phase if momentum doesn’t reclaim previous highs.
What’s next? Will the dollar revisit deeper support — or surprise us with a reclaim and breakout?
👁 Stay alert. This chart isn’t just about the USD — it impacts commodities, equities, emerging markets, and crypto.
#DXY #USDollar #MacroTrading #LongTermOutlook #DollarIndex #TechnicalAnalysis #SmartMoneyMoves #RecessionWatch
USD Tests Long-Term Support + Weekly OversoldLast week I highlighted the oversold reading on the weekly DXY chart. While bulls didn't exactly put in a massive showing it was also one of the first green weekly bars in a month.
Notably, the monthly April bar looks very bearish but the bulk of those losses were in the first 11 days of the month and last week, on Monday, a massive spot of support came into play at the 38.2% retracement of the 2008-2024 major move. This is confluent with a trendline projection, connecting 2001 and 2020 highs, which had come in to hold support back in July of 2023. This adds context to the possibility of a pullback in the USD and this meshes with the 1.1500 resistance test in EUR/USD. - js
DXY: Next Move Is Down! Short!
My dear friends,
Today we will analyse DXY together☺️
The price is near a wide key level
and the pair is approaching a significant decision level of 99.185 Therefore, a strong bearish reaction here could determine the next move down.We will watch for a confirmation candle, and then target the next key level of 99.910..Recommend Stop-loss is beyond the current level.
❤️Sending you lots of Love and Hugs❤️
DXY 4H TIME-FRAME ANALYSIS Okay, here's a description of the image:
The image shows a 4-hour price chart for the DXY (US Dollar Index).
Key points:
Downtrend: The index is generally in a downtrend.
Support and Resistance: A resistance zone is visible around 110.175, and a support level is around 97.921. Another resistance level is near 102.925.
Recent Price Action: The price has recently broken below the 102.925 level and is currently fluctuating around 99.581.