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MARKETS week ahead: October 7 – 13Last week in the news The US non-farm payrolls for September surprised the markets during the previous week, causing investors to consider a soft landing of the US economy and a 25bps Feds cut till the end of this year. The start of the week brought a negative sentiment on the US equities markets, however the S&P 500 ended the week with a small gain, at the level of 5.751, after the release of jobs data. The US Dollar gained on the same grounds, however, the price of gold remained reluctant to follow the negative correlation, considering strong bullish sentiment which is still holding amid the ongoing Middle East tensions. In anticipation of the Feds 25 bps rate cut in the coming period, the US 10Y Treasury yields were testing the 4,0% level, ending the week modestly below this level. The crypto market was on a losing side this week, reacting to a combination of macro factors both in the US and China. BTC was testing the $60K support line, but is ending the week around the $62K levels. The US nonfarm payrolls reached the level of 254K in September, which was almost doubled from the market forecast. At the same time, the unemployment rate dropped to the level of 4,1% in September from 4,2% posted in August. The implications of such strong jobs data were evident on markets as investors adjusted their positions and sentiment toward the higher potential for a soft landing of the US economy. At the same time, some analysts were noting a high potential for another 50 bps rate cut by the Fed in the coming FOMC meeting, however, now this assumption is revised to 25bps. Analysts are also revising the number of rate cuts during 2025, as a strong economy will make the Fed slow down with rate cuts. Another important event that was covered by news during the previous week was a rise of China's equity market by 25% within a single week. As China's Government announced heavy economic stimulus in order to support further growth of their economy, the investors' interest toward China's stocks surged accordingly, boosting it by 25% for the week. Analysts are noting that the demand for the exposure in China's market is still quite strong, which might continue to boost the equity market. Still, they are noting high risks of such a development, especially in case that the outcome of monetary measures might not be in line with current market pricing. The price of oil was another topic which was discussed in the news. As tensions in the Middle East continue, the investors were concerned that this might have a significant impact on the price of oil. News were concretely discussing the Iranian oil production which might be disrupted due to tensions. In this sense, analysts are estimating that the price of Brent crude oil might hit between $100 and $150 / barrel. In line with a drop in value of the crypto market, the US based exchange traded funds experienced the worst week since September 6th this year, with a total estimated outflow of $300 million. Bitwise announced that it plans to add Treasuries to its portfolio of BTC in order to curb high volatility, and “improve risk-adjusted returns”. Crypto market cap The crypto market was under indirect influence of both US and China's macro developments. The strong US jobs data for September returned investors positive confidence toward the US stock market, moving a part of funds from the crypto market back to the equity markets. On the other side, announced strong stimulus measures from China's Government supported market interests for Chinese equities, where China's equities rose by 25% within the single week. This again had a negative impact on the crypto market, since a portion of funds was transferred to this market. Investors continue to seek high returns, which the crypto market is not able to deliver at this moment. On a positive side is that such developments are cyclical on financial markets, and the crypto market follows the same path. Total crypto market capitalization decreased during the week by 7%, whipping out around $157B from this market. Daily trading volumes remained relatively flat on a weekly level, moving around $126B on a daily basis. Total crypto market capitalization increase from the end of the previous year currently stands at $463B which represents a 28% surge from the beginning of this year. There has been a general sell off of crypto coins during the previous week. There are only a few which managed to end the week in green, while the vast majority of coins were traded on a downside. In nominal terms, BTC and ETH led the general drop in market capitalization. BTC lost around 6% on a weekly basis, decreasing its market cap by $77B. ETH lost less in nominal terms, but a decrease in the cap of $34B led to a decrease in value of 10.5% within a week. XRP was traded down by 15%, losing $5.3B of its value. BNB was also among higher weekly losers with a drop of $5.8B or 6.6%. Solana was down by 9.5%, losing $ 7B in value. Among higher losers in relative terms were Maker, with a drop of more than 15%, Polygon was down by 16.4%, and DOGE lost almost 17% in value. The majority of other coins closed the week in red between 9% and 13%. There has been increased activity when coins in circulation are in question. Polygon pulled out a total 6.2% of its coins from the market. Maker withdrew 0.4% of its coins, while Solanas number of coins dropped by 0.1% on a weekly basis. On the opposite side were Miota, which increased the number of circulating coins by 0.6%, Filecoin coins were higher by 0.3%, while Polkadot and Algorand increased the number of coins by 0.2% w/w, same as Tether. Crypto futures market Same as on the spot market, the negative sentiment held also on a crypto futures market during the previous week. BTC futures were last traded down by more than 5% for all maturities. Futures maturing in December this year ended the week at level of $63.680, while those maturing a year later were last traded at $69.705. On a positive side is that March 2026 still holds above the $71K, ending the week at level of $71.180. Similar situation was with ETH futures, which were traded lower by more than 10% compared to the week before. The exception was December 2024, which was traded down by 12.85%, ending the week at $ 2.408. December 2025 was last traded at price $2.668, while March 2026 dropped below the $3K, closing the week at $2.717.
CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL
by XBTFX
TOTAL - Wyckoff Accumulation 2 Setting up!Price come into the monthly demand at the $1.8 trillion level and we have since formed range conditions after a selling climax event with a massive volume rejection on the weekly and daily wicks into the monthly demand range as shown on the chart. This was also discussed and noted on 05/08 at the height of the crash where i noted the presence of high volume being a positive thing in stopping the proceeding bearish trend alongside the fear and greed index reading 26 in fear as we come into key levels after the capitulation showing us great signs. TOTAL Volume Analysis from 05/08: Since then we have formed a local range after the high volume capitulation low got put in and many question whats next in this range? For me, im seeing this as an accumulation range after the SC event just like ive detailed on BTC. I think we have bottomed in the market, i think we are accumulating here in this local range and we are likely to form a last point of support (LPS) and HL in the range before a breakout of the highs into new highs over Q4. Its setting up great here and im confident we dont put in new lows from here. Im expecting a little more correction in the range as shown into the LPS but overall im focused on the upside from here in line with the HTF!
CRYPTOCAP:TOTALLong
by marshyyy
TOTAL - Wyckoff Accumulation Range in Progress!Price come into the monthly demand at the $1.8 trillion level and we have since formed range conditions after a selling climax event with a massive volume rejection on the weekly and daily wicks into the monthly demand range as shown on the chart. This was also discussed and noted on 05/08 at the height of the crash where i noted the presence of high volume being a positive thing in stopping the proceeding bearish trend alongside the fear and greed index reading 26 in fear as we come into key levels after the capitulation showing us great signs. TOTAL Volume Analysis from 05/08: Since then we have formed a local range after the high volume capitulation low got put in and many question whats next in this range? For me, im seeing this as an accumulation range after the SC event just like ive detailed on BTC. I think we have bottomed in the market, i think we are accumulating here in this local range and we are likely to form a last point of support (LPS) and HL in the range before a breakout of the highs into new highs over Q4. Its setting up great here and im confident we dont put in new lows from here. Im expecting a little more correction in the range as shown into the LPS but overall im focused on the upside from here in line with the HTF!
CRYPTOCAP:TOTALLong
by marshyyy
A TOTAL Disaster (Crypto About To Lose 500$Billion Cap.)The TOTAL Cryptocurrency market capitalization is about to drop by 500 Billion dollars ($500,000,000,000), more or less. The chart is showing a clear downtrend and after a reversal at the MA200 resistance line, we are seeing the continuation of this trend. It took the market a total of 53 days to cool off from the early August crash. If we ignore the 5-August candle, there is a lower low between 6-September and 5-July. We are expecting another drop, likely the final one of this corrective phase. I say likely because there can be another one in November and this can produce a higher low just as it can produce a lower low, this is something that is yet to be seen. The same situation as in 2022. Rinse and repeat. We can be sure that the bottom is set in 2024 and that the recovery will also start in late 2024. We can be sure that 2025 will be growth, bull-market and new All-Time Highs all across. Stay strong. Protect your capital. Withdraw, sell, run... Do whatever you have to do to stay safe. It is not easy to navigate these markets, but we have been receiving warnings for almost 7 months now, if you get caught in the next one, nobody to blame but yourself. After the market go down it will go up. It is going down after it went up. It was down before growing in 2023. It will move down again after peaking in 2025. It is just the way it is. Knowing this, we can trade and be successful but that is only if we can let go of our own prejudices, assumptions and biases and learn to read the market, the charts and the data for what it is. ➖ When it is going up or set to go up, this is bullish. ➖ When it is going down and set to go down, this is bearish. Nobody can argue with me. I know we can have different views and opinions; I know we are entitled to our conclusions and ideas; I know we are all one but we are not the same. This doesn't change the fact that the market has been going down and we are here to state the facts and to do the best we can. I am grateful for your support. I write because I care. I try to share what I see and my goal is that you can see what I see and can use this information in the best possible way. We just follow our hearts and let the market take care of the rest. Thank you for reading. You are appreciated. Namaste.
CRYPTOCAP:TOTALShort
by MasterAnanda
4
UDS Fiat Standard risk-off vs. Bitcoin Standard risk-off showdowThe U.S. national debt is $35T, Gold is the highest-valued asset class at $18T (while it should be at $129T), and Bitcoin is now at $1.8 T. Meanwhile, the annual U.S. military budget is $841B, supporting the world's current economies. The U.S. annual interest payment on its national debt is over $1T. The U.S. is entering the zone where they must borrow to make the interest payments. TradiFi needs to kill Bitcoin, but they can't because over 35% of the world's plebs are in support of a Bitcoin Standard paradigm shift. Now. TradiFi needs a big war right now. It is their last resort. China keeps its eyes on the final prize… Taiwan. ------------- The likelihood of its inclusion is relatively high, given that MicroStrategy (MSTR) meets all the primary criteria for inclusion in the S&P 500, including market capitalization, liquidity, public float, and profitability. However, the final decision rests with the S&P Index Committee, which considers additional factors such as: 1 - Market Conditions: Unfavorable market conditions or volatility might lead the committee to delay adding new companies. OMS: BTC is a risk-off asset! 2 - Sector Balance: The committee might decide to maintain a certain balance among sectors within the index, which could delay the inclusion of a company from an already well-represented sector. OMS: Crypto must be represented in the S&P! 3 - Corporate Governance Concerns: Any concerns about the company's corporate governance practices or recent controversies could be a factor. OMS: no issues here. 4 - Recent Changes: If the company has undergone significant changes, such as mergers, acquisitions, or restructuring, the committee might wait to see how these changes play out. OMS: The S&P index committee is a private entity, and its decisions impact the primary tool used by the public and retirement pension funds buying passively in the S&P 500 through balanced portfolios. They need to be unbiased on MSTR and Bitcoin's value as a true definition of money (a better definition than the fiat standard). The S&P Index Committee, while a private entity, plays a significant role in shaping the composition of the S&P 500, which in turn impacts public and retirement pension funds that track the index. Their decisions can have wide-reaching implications. The committee aims to be as objective and unbiased as possible, focusing on the established criteria for inclusion. However, the unique nature of MicroStrategy's significant Bitcoin holdings could introduce additional considerations. Bitcoin's volatility and its classification as a TradiFi "risk on" asset rather than a free, totally unbiased currency might be factors the committee weighs carefully. Ultimately, while the committee strives for impartiality, including a company like MicroStrategy, with its substantial Bitcoin investments, is a step towards recognizing the evolving landscape of financial assets. Note that all components of the S&P 500 are assets, and MSTR has the potential to lead the way to adopting Bitcoin as the primary reference (like the Gold standard did before Nixon). Bitcoin's volatility is mainly due to TradFi seeing it as a speculative «risk-on» asset while a «risk-off» deflationary asset! This view is changing fast, as Tradfi currently dismisses the Bitcoin protocol and how it works as risk-on speculative without understanding its sophistication and « digital gold » deflationary attributes. Everyone was misled by not understanding the value of representing the definition of money. Few know that the fiat standard post-Nixon is a failed social experiment, as we see now. Hyperinflation is monetizing 1.5 earth equivalent consumption by printing more debt and money to keep this sinking ship afloat. The current markets are like junkies playing the « risk on » game in believing that the Fed and the central bank are doing a soft landing. Last Friday's all-time high of the S&P 500 is an example of the market reaction to the Feb 0.5% rate cuts and China's announced stimulus (which will not prevent their recession and its contagion from that end as other Western factors are telling a different story that the Fed is behind and in panic mode… their soft landing "réthorique" is all smoke and mirrors). Indeed, all components of the S&P 500 are assets, and MicroStrategy's significant Bitcoin holdings could position it uniquely within the index. The potential for Bitcoin to become a standard, similar to the historical Gold Standard, is on the table. The volatility often associated with Bitcoin is indeed a point of contention. TradFi views Bitcoin as a risk-on asset due to its price fluctuations. However, proponents argue that Bitcoin's deflationary nature and limited supply make it a risk-off asset, potentially hedging against inflation and economic instability. If the S & P Index Committee recognizes these attributes and the evolving financial landscape, MicroStrategy's inclusion could pave the way for broader acceptance of Bitcoin within mainstream financial indices. This is how to bring the Fiat standard's manipulation and societal divide back in order. The Fiat standard is falling fast, and the industrial, military complex and tentacles (within the S&P 500) need a big war to manipulate our fears and direct our attention to the USD as a risk-off asset. TradFi, the fiat standard and the military-industrial complex depend on each other to exist. TradFi has tried to kill Bitcoin, but that genie is out of the bottle as 35% of the world's population supports Bitcoin's current $1.8T market capitalization (vs. The U.S. military budget of $851B in 2024). Refining the exact percentage of the world population that understands the perceived failures of the fiat standard since moving away from the gold standard is underway. However, awareness and understanding of these issues are growing, particularly among those involved in cryptocurrency, financial technology, and economic reform movements. Several factors contribute to this increasing awareness: 1 - Cryptocurrency Adoption: The rise of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies has brought attention to the limitations and vulnerabilities of fiat currencies. 2 - Economic Education: More people are educating themselves about monetary policy, inflation, and the history of the gold standard versus fiat currencies. 3—Global Economic Events: Economic crises, such as hyperinflation in many countries, have highlighted the weaknesses of the fiat system. The shift towards Bitcoin and away from traditional fiat currencies is gaining significant momentum. Many people recognize the potential benefits of a decentralized, deflationary asset like Bitcoin, especially in light of the challenges faced by the fiat system. This movement could indeed lead to profound changes in the global financial landscape. ----------- Reality check! What would the price of gold be to be able to buy back the gold standard in place to replace the current fiat standard? The price of gold is approximately $19,440 per ounce to fully back the current global money supply with a required minimum market capitalization of $129T. The current price per ounce is $2,682 for a total Market Capitalization of $18T. The discrepancy shows how the fiat standard underestimates the « cost » of money in exploiting the Earth. We are now consuming 1.5 Earth equivalent. This is where the hyperinflation comes from to bite us with the manipulated debt base (printing to infinity, while the Earth's resources are finite). So the U.S. national debt is at $35T, Gold is the highest-valued asset class at $18T (while it should be at $129T as a Gold Standard reference to support the current worldwide money supply), and Bitcoin is now at $1,8T while the annual U.S. military budget is at $841B and supporting the world current economies. To estimate the price of Bitcoin, which will replace the global fiat standard, we need to consider the total global money supply and the total supply of Bitcoin. 1 - Global Money Supply (M2): Approximately $125 trillion. 2 - Total Supply of Bitcoin: The maximum supply of Bitcoin is capped at 21 million BTC. If Bitcoin were to replace the global fiat standard today, its price would be approximately $5,952,380 per BTC. One Bitcoin contains 100 million blocks of encrypted data. One block, a unit, is called a Satoshi (from the name of Bitcoins creator (creators and Steve Jobs might be one of them). So there are 21 million Bitcoin and 2.1 quadrillion Satoshis. One satoshi would be worth the equivalent of 5.95 cents. This is why there is enough room to price everything in Bitcoin and Satoshis. Under the Bitcoin standard, USD 100 would be the equivalent of 1680 Satoshi. And because Bitcoin can only grow in value given its finite number of 21 million available coins, the Satoshis decimal value can only increase with time. This is a deflationary concept that would make the concept of money more valuable over time (and not the reverse with the current exploitative fiat standard system sucking the purchasing power of humans as a workforce). --------- When MicroStrategy (MSTR) is included in the S&P 500, it will rank around the middle of the index. With a market capitalization of approximately $31.18 billion, it would be more significant than just under half of the current S&P 500 members. The genie is out of the bottle! According to the latest reports, MicroStrategy holds approximately 214,246 BTC, representing about 1% of all Bitcoin mined. Given the positive net income from other operations, the minimum Bitcoin price for MicroStrategy to ensure overall positive earnings would be around $36,798. This price ensures that the Bitcoin holdings do not negatively impact overall profitability. MSTR will remain profitable if Bitcoin maintains a price above $37,000, and it will have met the overall profitability criteria to access the S&P 500 index. 1 - Positive Earnings in the Most Recent Quarter: MSTR must report positive earnings in the most recent quarter. OMS: met! 2 - Positive Earnings Over the Previous Four Quarters: The sum of the company's earnings over the previous four quarters must also be positive. OMS: met! 3 - Market Capitalization: The company's market cap must be at least $8.2 billion OMS: met! 4 -Liquidity: The company's shares must be highly liquid OMS: very liquid, met! 5 - Public Float: At least 50% of the company's outstanding shares must be available for public trading. OMS: 86% public float, met! 6 - U.S. Company: The company must be based in the United States. OMS: met! ----------- Current interest payments are already at levels that could be considered unsustainable if they continue to rise. Keeping interest payments below 4% of GDP and 20% of federal revenue is crucial to avoid unsustainability. Therefore, an approximate interest cost we don't want to exceed would be around: Debt interest max: 4% x 26.7 trillion≈1.068 trillion Federal Revenues: 20% ×4.9 trillion≈0.98 trillion If the S & P Index Committee recognizes these attributes and the evolving financial landscape, MicroStrategy's inclusion could pave the way for broader acceptance of Bitcoin within mainstream financial indices, ushering in a new era of financial stability and innovation. End the FED and establish the Bitcoin Standard. Let's all watch how this all unfolds. OMS
CRYPTOCAP:TOTALLong
by Operation_Morning_Star
From Breakout to Boom: The Future of Bitcoin and AltcoinsNow price created H&S with means the price can react to this situation and breaks the neckline and will go up. and also , the price can follow the butterfly pattern and go up. The cryptocurrency market is growing as expected, with the overall market value (covering Bitcoin, Ethereum, and altcoins) indicating a breakout. This development paves the way for a major upward trend in the coming months. ✨We spend hours finding potential opportunities and writing useful ideas, we would be happy if you support us. Best regards CobraVanguard.💚 _ _ _ _ __ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ ✅Thank you, and for more ideas, hit ❤️Like❤️ and 🌟Follow🌟! ⚠️Things can change... The markets are always changing and even with all these signals, the market changes tend to be strong and fast!!
CRYPTOCAP:TOTALLong
by CobraVanguard
MARKETS week ahead: September 30 – October 6Last week in the news The market optimism still strongly holds on the markets. During the previous week the support came both from US PCE data, but also news that China is preparing stronger stimulus for its economy. The price of gold reached a new fresh all time highest level, supported by both weakened US Dollar and ongoing geopolitical issues in the Middle East. Gold is ending the week at the level of $2.657. A slowdown in the US inflation data pushed 10Y US Treasury yields back to the level of 3,75%, but supported further the US equity markets, where the S&P 500 reached new highest levels, ending the week at 5.738. This week, the crypto market was also supported by the US macro prospectus, where BTC finally managed to test higher grounds, ending the week above the $ 65K levels. The released PCE data for August showed that the inflation in the US continues to slow down, bringing it close to the Feds target of 2%. The data show that the PCE index ended August at the level of 2,2% increase on a yearly basis, which was modestly lower from market forecast of 2,3%. At the same time, posted final GDP Growth data showed no change and that the US economy grew 3% for the second quarter. Further decrease in inflation and its level close to the 2% Feds target, supported market optimism that the Fed might easily further cut interest rates in the coming period. Also, the environment of decreased interest rates will be supportive for the economy, which is expected to further expand. The Bank of China was in the focus of the markets during the previous week. Namely, as for some time the Government is struggling to boost China's economy, the newest set of measures increased confidence among investors that the China's economy is going to be well supported in the coming period. The Peoples Bank of China announced a set of measures, among which are cuts of reserve requirements for Chinese banks. Attracting stimulus measures increased investors' confidence to move funds into China related exchange traded funds, which gained significantly during the previous week. News is reporting that the social platform X might soon continue to work in Brazil. As per news, there is only one fine which should be paid by this platform, after which, its ban in this country will be lifted. The fine in the amount of $2M is related to the days of non-compliance with the Brazilian court orders. MicroStrategy launched a new ETF on a 2X leveraged long position on the performance of the MicroStrategy. Only a week after the launch, the T-REX 2X Long MSTR Daily Target ETF (MSTU) attracted over $72 million in inflows, making it the most successful ETF within the crypto area. Crypto market cap Further inflation drop in the US and its nearing toward Fed's target of 2%, increased the investors sentiment for riskier assets. The crypto market was in the spotlight, where increased demand came from both individual investors and through exchange traded funds. Total crypto market capitalization increased by 5% during the week, where $112B has been added to the value of the market. Daily trading volumes were also modestly increased to the level of 121B on a daily basis. Total crypto market capitalization increase from the end of the previous year currently stands at $620B, which represents a 38% surge from the beginning of this year. The majority of crypto coins gained during the previous week, with only a few which finished the week in red. Bitcoin was leading the crypto market increase in nominal terms, adding almost $60B to its value, increasing it by 4.8% on a weekly basis. Ether followed the sentiment, adding $12B to the market cap, and increasing its value by 3.8%. Among higher gainers was DOGE, with a surge in value of $3.3B or 21.3%. BNB was traded higher by 3.2%, adding $2.8B to its market cap. The market favorite Solana also managed to significantly gain during the week, with an increase in cap of $5.5B or 8.14%. Gainers above $ 1B in value were also LINK, with an increase of 14.8% and ADA with a surge of 10.8% in value. Higher gainers in a relative terms were Uniswap, who was traded higher by 14%, Polkadot surged by 10.2%, while Filecoin increased its value by 11.4% w/w. Interestingly, this week Monero ended in a negative territory of 10.4% drop in value, while ZCash was traded lower by 2%. This week there has been higher activity when coins in circulation are in question. In this sense, Filecoin added 0.4% new coins to the market, while Polkadot, Tether and XRP added 0.2% of new coins. At the same time, ADA decreased its circulating coins by -2.8% w/w, while Polygon pulled out 3.9% of coins and Maker`s number of coins dropped by 0.3%. Crypto futures market In line with an increased sentiment from the spot market, the crypto futures market was also traded higher on a weekly basis. BTC short term futures were last traded higher by around 4.5%, while the longer term ones were traded higher by around 3.5%. BTC futures maturing in December this year ended the week at price of $67.200, while those maturing a year later were last traded at $73.475. Futures maturing in March 2026 were introduced to the market, reaching closing price at $75.075. This represents a positive market sentiment over the future value of BTC. ETH futures were traded above 6% for all maturities. In this sense, December 2024 ended the week at level $2.763 and December 2025 was last traded at $2.971. ETH futures maturing in March 2026 closed the first trading week at level of $3.019.
CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL
by XBTFX
Bullish Structure with Potential Reversal ConfirmationThe TOTAL market cap chart remains bullish on the daily timeframe, signalling continued strength in the market. While the internal structure is in a counter-phase, we are awaiting a potential reversal confirmation. This confirmation would occur if we see a daily close above the 2.441T level, marking a critical break in the current structure. Moreover, sell-side liquidity has already been swept, clearing the path for further upward movement. The next market objective is to target and sweep the buy-side trend liquidity, which aligns with our bullish outlook. Keep an eye on the 2.441T level as a key resistance. A break above will likely trigger stronger bullish momentum, and failing to breach could suggest temporary consolidation before the next move.
CRYPTOCAP:TOTALLong
by HosamAboAmer
1
CRYPTO MARKET CAP NEARS 200W MA! PRE-CRASH VIBES?Hello, fellow traders! Today, I'd like to share an intriguing analysis of the Crypto Total Market Cap chart, highlighting potential areas of reversal and target zones that could shape the market's direction in the coming months. By examining different timeframes, I've discovered an interesting scenario unfolding on the weekly chart. The price action in 2024 appears to be forming a downward channel , reminiscent of a pattern we saw back in 2019 . This analysis could provide valuable insights for anticipating future market movements and identifying trading opportunities. In 2019 , the crypto market experienced a significant advance in Q1 and Q2 before entering a declining channel. Many of us remember what happened next: Bitcoin started moving upwards, pulling the total market cap out of the channel. This movement coincided with the onset of the COVID-19 outbreak in China, leading to a failed rally . It wasn't until February 2020 that we witnessed signs of a market turning point, followed by a substantial crash during the global lockdown. Fast forward to today, we're noticing similar patterns: $2.5 Trillion Level: This level mirrors the failed rally point of 2020 and serves as a critical resistance area. A break above could signal bullish momentum. $1.0 Trillion Level: This zone might act as a potential "surprise" support level in the event of unexpected market downturns. Additionally, the 200-week moving average is acting as a significant support line. We might see the price spike below this average briefly during high volatility but expect it to recover above shortly after. What are your thoughts on this setup? Do you think we're heading towards a failed rally similar to 2019, or are we on the brink of setting new all-time highs? Could external factors influence the market as they did back then? Share your insights and let's discuss! Remember, the crypto market is highly unpredictable. Protecting your capital through proper risk management is crucial. A fundamental strategy is to risk no more than 1% of your capital per trade. If you found this analysis helpful, please like and follow for more in-depth market insights. Stay tuned for future posts where we'll explore emerging trends and potential trading strategies. Happy trading!
CRYPTOCAP:TOTALLong
by ArShevelev
1
MARKETS week ahead: September 24 – 29Last week in the news The long awaited Fed's rate cut finally occurred, with a surprising 50 bps. Thai was the main event which shaped the market sentiment during the previous week. Despite the cut, the 10Y US Treasury yields reverted to the upside, ending the week at the level of 3,74%. The US Dollar was losing in value, supporting the price of gold to reach a new all time highest level at $2.621. The US equity markets responded positively to the rate cut, pushing the S&P 500 to the higher grounds, ending the week at 5.702. The crypto market was also among weekly gainers, with BTC testing the levels above the $63K. The event which was long awaited by markets during the previous period, was the Feds pivotal point. This is an expression used by markets to express the point where central monetary authorities start easing monetary policy. Although the market participants were divided on whether the Fed will cut by 25 bps or 50 bps, the Fed's decision came as a sort of surprise. In an after the meeting statement, Fed Chair Powell noted that the Fed sees inflation slowly moving to its 2% target, while the jobs market retains relative stability, while the economy “continued to expand at a solid pace”. In the view of economic projections, the FOMC members currently perceive two more rate cuts, in total of 50 bps, till the end of this year, and 100 points rate cut in 2025 and 50 bps in 2026. The jobs market is perceived to decline to the level of 4,4% till the end of this year, from the current 4,2%. The market reacted positively to the Fed move, where equity markets gained further in value. Although the economy seems to do well in the US, the housing market is still strongly under pressure. Published data for August, show a further significant drop in home sales in the US of even 4,2% compared to the same month of 2023. At the same time the supply of houses is increasing, reaching a 22,7% increase in August from the same period last year, while the average price of homes are higher by 3,1% compared to the last year. The Bank of Japan was also discussing the level of rates on JPY during the previous week, and decided to keep them at current levels. The BoJ Governor noted that the Bank is in no rush to increase interest rates, as they are looking for global uncertainties to decrease. This represents the important news for the markets, considering the significant amount of carry trades in JPY. Apple released its new IPhone 16, however, the company is also in talks with JPMorgan to take over companies cards business from its current provider, Goldman Sachs. As news is reporting, the most challenging parts of negotiation are related to credit cards, considering increasing delinquencies on credit card repayments during this year. Crypto market cap Fed`s surprising 50 bps cut during the previous week was perceived overall positively by markets. The crypto market also benefited from increased investors' optimism, where BTC and ETH were leading the market cap to the upside. Total crypto market capitalization was increased by 5%, bringing additional $96B to the value of this market. Daily trading volumes remained relatively stable during the week, moving around $104B on a daily basis, with a little change from the week before. Total crypto market capitalization increase from the end of the previous year currently stands at $508B, which represents a 31% surge from the beginning of this year. The majority of coins gained during the previous week, with the major ones attracting the most funds inflows in nominal terms. BTC managed to add almost 5% to its value on a weekly basis, increasing it by $59B. ETH followed the positive market sentiment, with an increase of its value of 7.3% on a weekly basis, adding $21B to market capitalization. BNB was also in the spotlight of investors, with an increase of 5.7% in value and adding $4.5% to its market cap. The $ 4B also managed to add market favorite Solana, increasing its cap by 6.2% w/w. In relative terms, solid weekly performers were Theta, with a surge in value of 7.7%, IOTA added 9.3% to its value, NEO jumped by almost 6%, while Monero was higher by 5.1% on a weekly basis. There were only a few coins which finished the week with a modest weekly loss, like ADA, which remained almost flat, Zcash was traded down by 2.5% while Maker dropped by 5.4%, but it should be noted that Maker`s 5.4% of circulating coins were withdrawn from the market during the previous week. The previous week brought back some increased activity when circulating coins are in question. Maker had withdrawn 5.4% of its circulating coins from the market, while Polygon`s withdrawal was 4.5%. There is still no public information about what was behind these withdrawals. On the opposite side, IOTA added 0.6% more coins on the market, while LINK added even 3.1% more coins to the market. Tether added 0.5% new circulating coins, increasing the total market capitalization for this percentage. Crypto futures market In line with the spot developments the crypto futures market also reacted positively to the Fed's rate cut and surge in value of crypto coins on the spot market. BTC futures were traded higher by around 5% for all maturities, while ETH futures were traded around 4.9% higher also for all maturities. BTC`s futures maturing in December 2024 ended the week at the level of $64.365, while those maturing a year later were last traded again above the $70K, ending the week at $71.195. ETH futures maturing at the end of this year reached the last price at $2.605, and those maturing in December 2025 are still struggling to reach the $3K level, still trading at $2.798.
CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL
by XBTFX
Ascending EW base channelThe channel is made by drawing a parallel channel from the start of WAVE 1 to the end of WAVE 2 to the end of WAVE 1. In EW channeling theory you will like to see a WAVE 3 which goes above the channel's top band- CHECK For WAVE 4 you want to see a re-entry into the channel and preferably price-action not going down the mid band of it - CHECK The objective of WAVE 5 will be a zone between the 1 to 1 ratio of WAVE 1 and the 132% of the WAVE 4. This zone is defined by the RED Rectangle in the chart!
CRYPTOCAP:TOTALLong
by Fundorin1337
Downtrand is broakenDowntrand is broaken, but the probability that capitalization will grow is not high. 1) On the lower timeframes oscillators are ready to go down. 2) The tendency to decrease volumes is stable. S&P 500 hits new high a day after Fed rate cut - stock index trades above 5,700 for first time ever. When the price takes a new high, and on the RSI oscillator we see a decline that failed to beat the previous high - this is called a bearish divergence. One of the most powerful indicators in financial indicators. The previous time we touched this level were in 1999, 1956 and1929. There hasn't been an opportunity like this to go short in 25 years. A simple wave count shows that this is the beginning of wave C. 3) I see only one case in favor of BTC going to 80-100k - if the structure from November 2022 is an impulse, the formation from March 2024 to present is a triangle, so the last action wave could throw the price up for a month, after that a bear market will start. My base case scenario is that we are in a primary ABC correction. Wave C is underway now, which is a running flat. Nevertheless, my base scenario is this we in a primary ABC correction. Now is C wave, which is a Running flat.
CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL
by dogecoin_chain
Crypto $TOTAL Market Cap Sell The News Event IncomingSOUR GRAPES Markets barely budge after the Fed cuts a massive 50 bps. This is due to uncertainty with participants feeling there is something “broken” in the system. However, long-term this is BULLISH. The Crypto CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL Market Cap could see another small pump leading into the weekend to test its downtrend line, but I expect next week for the markets to “sell the news” pretty hard. Should retest the lower order block ~$1.77T next.
CRYPTOCAP:TOTALShort
by jonnieking
MARKETS week ahead: September 16 – 22Last week in the news The ECB cut interest rates by 25 bps at their September meeting, which had some modest influence on European markets. The more important macro news came from the US, where August inflation showed a further relaxation, opening a case for the Fed to cut interest rates. Markets reacted positively to posted figures, where S&P 500 gained 4% on a weekly level, and is currently standing just 1% below its all time highest level. The US 10Y benchmark reached the levels below 3,7%, ending the week at the level of 3,65%. The demand for gold continues, pushing its price to a fresh new all time highest level at $2.577. Investors' optimism increased the demand for riskier assets, where BTC managed to reach the levels of $60K, as of the end of the week. The ECB cut interest rates by 25 bps during the previous week. Such a move was expected by markets, considering the weakening Euro Zone economy. In an after the meeting speech, ECB President Lagarde did not provide any guidance over the further monetary policy moves, in terms of further cut of interest rates, except one comment that the direction of interest rates is “pretty obvious”. Analysts are generally in agreement that the ECB would have to further cut interest rates in order to support the weakened EU economy, with some voting for more aggressive cuts. The ECB inflation projections remained unchanged from June, however, growth forecasts were changed to the downside. At this moment, the ECB expects a yearly growth rate of 0,8% for 2024, and 1,3% in 2025. The modest growth is expected to be supported by a strong global economy and private consumption. The US inflation in August reached 0,2% for the month and 2,6% on a yearly basis, showing that it is on a clear down path. This also leaves open space for the Fed to cut interest rates in the coming period. The majority of market participants are now perceiving a high probability that the Fed will make its first move at September's FOMC meeting, which is scheduled for September 19th. The only question which now remains open is how aggressively the Fed will cut? Based on the CME Group FedWatch tool there is an equal number of market participants who are expecting 25 bps and 50 bps. OpenAI, a creator of Chat GPT application, is starting a new round of funding in order to collect $6,5 billion through issuance of convertible notes. The funds will be used for further development of their artificial general intelligence (AGI) and also for company restructuring in order to remove a profit cap for investors. MicroStrategy, a company known for its strong devotion and holding of BTC, used the latest dip in the price of BTC to purchase more coins. As company CEO, Michel Saylor posted on the X platform, the company now holds a total 244.800 BTC. Crypto market cap The pivotal point for the previous week was the release of the US inflation data for August. Figures were in line with market expectations, in which sense, market participants sustained the previous odds that the Fed will cut for the first time in this economic cycle at their September FOMC meeting. Rate cut is perceived positively by markets, as they expect that the environment of decreased interest rates would help companies to increase their businesses and earnings in the future period. This week the crypto market was also in the spotlight of investors. Although the first half of the week was a bit bumpy, still, Friday's trading session brought back confidence in the crypto market. Total crypto market capitalization was increased by 8% within a week, adding total $152B to its value. Daily trading volumes were also increased to the level of $117B on a daily basis, from $79B traded a week before. Total crypto market capitalization increase from the end of the previous year currently stands at $412B, which represents a 25% surge from the beginning of this year. Almost all coins gained during the previous week. The market was led by BTC, which managed to gain a little bit less from 10% on a weekly basis, increasing its market cap by $105B. ETH performed in a little bit shy manner, adding to its market cap $12.6B and increasing it by 4.5%. XRP also gained strongly in a week, increasing its value by 11.3% or $3.4B. BNB also performed solidly, with a surge in market cap of 9.6% adding SEED_TVCODER77_ETHBTCDATA:7B to it. The market favorite Solana was also among solid gainers, with an increase in value of 5.2% or $3.2B. The majority of other altcoins gained between 5% and 10%. There were only a few coins which did not manage to catch up with the general market, like Tron, which was down by 2.8% or Monero, which dropped by 2.2% on a weekly basis. When it comes to the number of coins in circulation, the activity on the market was relatively lower from the week before. Algorand managed to increase the number of its circulating coins by 0.3%, same as Maker. This week, Filecoin was not leading the market, as it increased its coins in circulation by 0.2%, the same as Polkadot and Stellar. Tether increased its coins on the market by 0.3% same as its market capitalization. Crypto futures market The crypto futures market reacted strongly to developments from the spot market. BTC short term futures were traded higher by more than 13% from the week before, while the long term ones were up by around 11.5%. BTC futures maturing in December 2024 closed the week at the level of $61.220, which was 12.15% higher from the close of the previous week. At the same time, futures maturing in December 2025 were last traded at $67.825 or 11.4% higher. ETH short term futures closed the week by 11.8% higher from the week before. December 2024 reached the last market price at $2.477, which was by 10% higher on a weekly basis. December 2025 was last traded at $2.668, which was an increase of 8.7% compared to the previous week.
CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL
by XBTFX
TOTAL (crypto market cap) is low key doing some sneaky moves...TOTAL (crypto market cap) is low key crawling up -- and barely no one will notice this. It has finally poke the downtrend line after 5 days of heavy correction. It's still a small increase about ($100M added to TOTAL) but enough to take a closer look. It may give us a hint on what's coming for next week -- and for the whole month of May. Spotted at 1.084T Things will be interesting again, if you know what I mean. :) TAYOR. Safeguard capital, always.
CRYPTOCAP:TOTALLong
by JSAL
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