This chart shows just how on the edge the Bond Market IsI find it hard to argue with this chart. Clearly we are on a knifes edge. It may be time to de-risk and lock in profit. PROCEED WITH CAUTION !!!
US10Y trade ideas
US10Y going lower as Fed has no choice but to continue cutting.More than 1 year ago (November 7 2023, see chart below), we made a bold (for the time being) call on the U.S. Government Bonds 10YR Yield (US10Y), as against the prevailing market sentiment we gave a sell signal, right after what turned out to be a top:
Today we revisit this pattern, following yesterday's Rate Cut by the Fed primarily because of their statements that instead of 4, they will only proceed to 2 more cuts in 2025. We believe this to be false and expect the Fed to quickly resume the previous outlook.
The chart shows that the 1M RSI Lower Highs have are consistent with the previous Bearish Reversal on the US10Y price, similar to 2006 - 2007. We are expecting to hit the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level at 2.100%, as the Fed's Cut Cycle will be accelerated in order to meet within 12-18 months their 2% inflation target and stabilize.
For better illustration we have plotted also the U.S. Interest Rate (red trend-line), where you can clearly see that the fractal we compare to today, is right before cuts started in August 2007. Also it is a natural consequence for the US10Y to fall when rate cut cycles start, evident also in June 2019, December 2000, May 1995, May 1989 September 1984, May 1981 etc.
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10 Year in Trouble...Ruh-Roh Raggy...the 10YR is now playing peekaboo over the downward trendline we have developed over the last few months.
US10Y ELLIOTT WAVE ANALYSIS: 19 DEC, 2024©Master of Elliott Wave: Hua (Shane) Cuong, CEWA-M.
The entire ((2))-navy most recent completed as an (A)(B)(C)-orange Zigzag, and the ((3))-navy is now retracing to push higher.
It is subdividing into a (1)(2)-orange, and they have completed, since the high of 4.126%, the (3)-orange is unfolding to push lower, targeting the high of 5.163%
US10Y bearish analysisTechnical analysis for US10Y, bearish count.
Bearish reaction to interest rate cut.
Looking for long-squeeze, banks in trouble (>$700 billion in unrealized losses) without bailout.
Speculation at present, but could be catalyst for quick drop in equities to October 2022 lows.
US 10Y TREASURY: expecting a 25 bps cutAs the Feds December meeting is approaching, so the market nervousness is increasing. During the previous week the 10Y US benchmark reverted back toward the 4,4% level, from 4,2% traded previously. Such a move was a reflection of market expectations that the Fed will cut interest rates by additional 25 bps on December 18th. Also, ahead of the FOMC meeting, November inflation data was published, showing 0,4% increase in November, higher from market expectation of 0,2%.
Increased volatility might be expected also during the first two days of the week ahead. The current 4,4% level for 10Y US Treasuries might be its highest level for the week. As per CME FedWatch Tool, there is currently 97% odds that the Fed will cut by 25 bps. In this sense, some relaxation in yields might be expected during the week ahead.
US 20/2 yr bullishlooks like a market recession results often
see bullish divergence and targets above w/ gaps to be filled
10 year - 3 month yield curve has un-invertedThe past may not predict the future, but history does tend to rhyme.
In the past, within 3-8 months of the 10-year/3-month yield curve un-inverting, the world was hit with:
*** 9/11 in 2001
*** The Great Financial Crisis, also known as the subprime mortgage meltdown, in 2008
*** COVID-19 lockdowns in 2020
It's an odd phenomenon that we live in a time when shorter-term maturity vehicles have rewarded investors with more yield than longer-term vehicles. In this case, a 3-month US Treasury Bill commitment had been paying higher interest than a 10-year US Treasury Bond. My completely liquid bank savings account was yielding 5% APY. Why would I lock my funds up for 10 to 30 years when I could be earning more from a savings account with no term?
Without getting into further details, if history continues to rhyme, we might be months away from the next major world event.
US10Y - Elliott Wave AnalysisNot sure if this will happen but if it does, what does it mean ?
1. Impact on the US Dollar
Strengthens the Dollar:
Higher yields attract foreign investors seeking better returns, increasing demand for the US Dollar.
Rising yields often coincide with expectations of tighter monetary policy by the Federal Reserve, which further boosts the dollar.
2. Impact on Gold
Negative for Gold:
Gold is a non-yielding asset, meaning it doesn’t pay interest or dividends. When bond yields rise, the opportunity cost of holding gold increases, making it less attractive.
A rising US Dollar (driven by higher yields) also makes gold more expensive in other currencies, reducing global demand.
Inflation Hedge Caveat: If rising yields are driven by inflation concerns, gold might still see some demand as a hedge, although its gains are often capped by rising yields.
3. Impact on the Stock Market
General Impact:
Rising yields increase borrowing costs for companies, reducing profits and potentially slowing down growth.
Investors may rotate out of riskier assets like equities into safer Treasuries as yields become more attractive.
Value vs. Growth:
Value Stocks (e.g., banks, industrials): These may benefit from rising yields as they’re tied to economic growth and inflation expectations.
Growth Stocks (e.g., tech companies): These tend to underperform because their valuations depend on future cash flows, which are discounted more heavily as yields rise.
4. Impact on Nasdaq (Tech Stocks)
Negative Impact:
The Nasdaq is heavily weighted toward growth and tech stocks, which are sensitive to rising yields.
Higher yields increase the discount rate used to value future earnings, making high-valuation tech stocks less appealing.
Example: Periods of sharply rising yields often coincide with sell-offs in the Nasdaq.
5. Impact on Emerging Markets
Outflows from Emerging Markets:
Rising US yields can draw capital away from emerging markets as investors seek safer and higher-yielding US assets.
This can weaken emerging market currencies and lead to tighter financial conditions in those economies.
6. Broader Market Sentiment
Inflation Expectations: Rising yields driven by inflation concerns can create volatility across all asset classes.
Fed Policy Sensitivity: Markets may react negatively if higher yields signal faster-than-expected Fed rate hikes.
Historical Context
Periods of sharply rising yields (e.g., during taper tantrums or inflation scares) have often led to stronger US dollars, weaker gold prices, and volatile stock markets, with the Nasdaq typically underperforming due to its tech-heavy composition.
US10Y - TLT long positionyields retracing to fill the gap, representing another entry potential for a long in TLT
US10YLooking for a sign? Then this is it. Thats how I set my mind to analyze charts. Here we are looking for buying support reasons and to hopefully minimize risk as much as possible. We looking to buy on bigger timeframe as opposed to the Sell we spotted on Hourly timeframe which for the bigger timeframes may not even appear when the Daily candlestick is completely formed. So, we looking to buy here, if you sell, be extra cautious esp with the SL.
US 10Y TREASURY: inflation data aheadThe NFP data were in the center of market attention during the previous week. Analysts perceived posted data as “not too hot and not too cold”. Indeed, they were somewhere in between. The US economy added 227K new jobs, which was higher from market estimate, but at the same time the unemployment rate reached 4,2%, a modest increase from 4,1% posted previously. Regardless of these mixed data, CME FedWatch Tool is showing 85% odds for a 25 bps rate cut in December. It should be taken into account that the US inflation data is set to be released during the week ahead, which will bring another layer to market expectations.
The 10Y US Treasury benchmark yields were traded to the downside during the previous week. For the second week in a row yields are gradually taking the down course. During the previous week, the 10Y benchmark was closed at the level of 4,17%. Next week, the US November inflation data will be posted, however, investors are currently positioning for the FOMC meeting, scheduled for December 17-18th.
US10Y Government Bond Yield Could Test 3.8% SoonUS10Y Government Bond Yield Could Test 3.8% Soon
The price is showing the completion of a complex pattern that could push the price further.
A very strong resistance zone is found near 4.16%, which was just broken.
Additionally, overall market expectations regarding a potential Federal Reserve rate cut during the December meeting by 25 basis points or higher speculation may push the US10Y Government Bond Yield down even more.
Let's see how the price unfolds during the coming days.
You may find more details in the chart!
Thank you and Good Luck!
❤️PS: Please support with a like or comment if you find this analysis useful for your trading day❤️
U.S 10 YEAR Bond Rate END GAME...
Government Digital Currency the solution?
Something greater than 2009?
The great wealth transfer?
Adoption of Flare Network?
...
Yield Curve This Time is The SameStandard 10-2 yield curve, zoomed out and smoothed, shows this time is not different. In fact, if you made the correct assumptions in the 1980s you could have calculated exactly what is happening today using some kindergarten mathematics. Remember that when the crisis unfolds and the news rationalizes the recession and market corrections that are right around the corner.
Chart: US10Y-US02Y 12 month close line
US10Y: Hit the 1D MA50. See how to trade if it breaks.The U.S. Government Bonds 10 YR Yield has turned bearish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 42.524, MACD = 0.005, ADX = 44.101) and since last Friday it has been trading on the 1D MA50. That was the first test of this trendline in 2 months and even though yesterday's candle closed under it, we don't have a decisive breakout yet. A candle considerably below it, should test the 1D MA100. This is part of the larger Channel Down and a crossing under the 1D MA100 validates that this is the new bearish wave. The 1D RSI already is inside a mirror Channel Down pattern as April 15th-May 15th. Our perspective is long term bearish in any case but if the 1D MA100 holds, you may trade within the Channel Down and the circles for short term buy and sell entries. Our long term target is raised a little higher on the 1.1 Fibonacci extension (TP = 3.500%).
See how our prior idea has worked out:
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10 year yield in downfallThe 10 year yield broke the trendline and we see a bearish divergence which is playing out.
If trends continues risk-on assets could surge!
10 year yield in downfallThe 10 year yield broke the trendline and we see a bearish divergence which is playing out.
If trends continues risk-on assets could surge!
US 10Y TREASURY: NFP on scheduleRegardless of a Thanksgiving Holiday in the US, during the previous week the 10Y US Treasury yields slides back till the levels from October this year. The yields started the week around the level of 4,42% while they are ending the week at 4,17%. Feds favourite inflation gauge, the PCE Price Index was released early in the week, which was in line with market expectations. On the other hand, FOMC November meeting minutes were released suggesting a Feds members conclusion that in case of further inflation relaxation and labour data in line with their expectations, there will be a case for further rate cuts.
At this moment, the CME FedWatch Tool suggests 66% odds that the Fed might cut interest rates by another 25 basis points at their December meeting. The US Treasury yields reacted to these expectations. As per current sentiment, there is still space for a further drop in yields, at least until the market properly tests the 4,0% level. It should be considered that Non-farm Payrolls are scheduled to be released in a week ahead, in which sense, some volatility might follow the US yields.
US10yr yield headed higher after pullback towards 4%Self explanatory.
Early stages if wave 5 higher for yields to 6%+ in coming quarters but likely to see a pullback to 4% in days/weeks ahead first.
US 10Y TREASURY: watch for October PCEPrevious week markets spent on digesting currently mixed economic data as well as statements from a few Fed officials. The most important question at the moment is whether the Fed will cut interest rates at December's FOMC meeting or not. Statements of two Fed officials were rather mixed. On one side, Chicago Fed President Goolsbee noted his view on a need for more rate cuts, but the pace of it should not be speeded up. On the other side is Fed Governor Bowman, who stated that the fight against inflation “appears to have stalled”. The week ahead is important for markets, as October PCE data are set for a release, in which sense, might provide some clearer picture to markets of a potential next Fed move. At the current moment there are only 35% odds that the Fed will cut rates by 25% in December.
The 10Y US Treasuries were traded in a relatively mixed manner, exposing market uncertainty over the potential Feds move. The yields started the week around the level of 4,48% and for the rest of the week was oscillating around the 4,4% level. Further relaxation might continue during the week ahead, in case that the October PCE is in line with the current market expectations. In case that there are some deviations, then the yields might return toward the 4,5%. However, the most probable scenario is further relaxation of yields, at least to the level of 4,3%.
Bonds, gold and nextwe see, every wave has shorter distance on the time 200ma and when ever price touches to 20 ma, it stars falling. We also see indicators has sell signal.
How ever it still has LITTLE chance to see top side of channel quickly because momentum looks very wavey (green arrow).
In this case i put my bet for bears. Because there is more reasons for me(yellow arrow).
Also i want to notice that bond and gold has still correlation. NOT like before but still...If we look from this point gold has already started pricing this action.
And sory guys for messy chart but all need i guess. And again sory for bad english.
US 10Y TREASURY: Fed is not in hurryPrevious week on the US Treasury bond market was marked with Fed Chair Powell's comment that the Fed is “not in a hurry to lower interest rates”. The note came from Feds perception of a strong US growth, in which sense, there is no need to cut interest rates too soon. This marked investors confidence, so 10Y Treasury yields continued their path toward the upside. The highest weekly level reached was 4,49% at one point, however, yields are ending the week at 4,44%.
It will take some time until the markets digest the mentioned note from Fed Chair Powell. Now the question is whether the Fed will cut interest rates at their December's meeting, or the rate cut will be postponed for next year. As per CME FedWatch Tool, the market is expecting with a 62% odds, that the Fed will cut in December by 25bps, while the rest is of opinion that the Fed will keep rates unchanged. This digesting might bring some volatility back on the market, where yields might move between 4,5% and 4,4% during the week ahead.
