Fake move on VIX? #VIXHi Everyone!
Looks like VIX wanted to move higher but faked it (double top pattern, RSI confirmation).
My target is low 20's.
Look for a relief in stocks.
VIX trade ideas
VIX - to the dotVIX still doing what is expected - it crossed both lines and now is forming a double top which will lead into a small relief in the stock market - just like the fractal shows - we should retest that lower area before going into infinity.
2022 Crash - My plan to trade the volatility I don't really post these for anyone else but for my own intuition to see how it turns out. But I'll have a go at explaining for anyone who finds it worth reading.
I've been waiting for this moment for a long time - and at times, been impatient. But it is now becoming clear where we are in this 'volatility cycle', in comparison to the volatility cycle of the 2008 financial crisis.
I'm sure many of us are aware of the risk of serious economic crisis literally around the corner. Not to say I/we know when, or how serious -but rather that I'm pretty cock sure there is elevated risk of serious economic crisis.
I won't go too deep into the macros because, well, you should know. And the conclusion I come to with what I think I know is that the fed may have created a multi asset bubble. How? Go google what % of dollars currently in circulation were printed in 2019-20.
To conclude, kicking the covid recession can down the road gave us the final over extended bull run of. Bringing the end to a 12 year bull market. This goes for economic cycle too - monetary policy has been largely loose for this entire period (correct me if I'm wrong, I haven't actually checked the data on this.). But I do know it has been loose for a long time and the fed has stood ready to rescue markets and the economy where required to keep things tidy - ie. markets and economies growing.
But as we all know, economies go in cycles, too. And after every boom comes a necessary evil - the recession. After every recession comes a boom again.
We need a recession - but the further the can is kicked down the road, the higher the risk that it goes deep.
Long story short and probably way to brief, the fed and government's over stimulation of the economy plus the supply issues born from pandemic and war have caused dollar devaluation and inflation. I don't care what anyone says - the SPX should not have gained 120% from the Covid lows. This is just silliness because of overstimulation (Michael Burry would agree).
Why? How? Go google what % of dollars currently in circulation were printed in 2019-20.
I'm surely not the only who sees things this way, right?
All of this, plus some amateur looking TA comparison to 2008, and staring at these charts for far too many hours, days, weeks, months, - I think capitulation is around the corner. Terrible news for most, I know. I don't wish for this to happen - I'm just following the fed. And would rather profit from the consequences of policy mistakes (kicking the can down the road) finally being rectified (Quantitative tightening, increasing interest rates = restrictive monetary policy = no more money printer until inflation and demand and prices calm tf down).
So, how do I plan to profit from this?
Well, volatility takes off to it's high's of $90 when we see capitulation. But, if history rhymes, we will see one last rally in the SPX - and the last sustained drop in volatility before a capitulation event. I am short VIX currently, but stand ready to build long VIX at tops of SPX rallies, eventually neutralising my position towards support, and phasing out shorts and tightening up stops on shorts. I expect this to happen over the next 1-2 months. Let me be clear - the short position is no biggy here - it's just because clearly we may see a relief rally soon, before capitulation. So I expect volatility to drop BEFORE taking off. So I'm short, phasing into long. Then I'll see you all when VIX is at $80-90 - then I will phase out of longs into MAXIMUM short positions on VIX. Let me be clear - I'd short VIX at $80-$90 with everything I have. And I plan to. Seriously. I encourage you to think about it and debate your reasons why that is a bad idea.
And with the proceeds from going long VIX through the volatility spike and then shorting VIX at $80-90, once volatility drops to c$35-25, I will start phasing into QQQ - 3 x leveraged Nasdaq 100.
Anyway, the anticipated capitulation event could be triggered by any external factor - war escalating, fed increasing rates more than expected, something completely unforeseen etc etc, it's not important - what's important is that the economy has been running hot, inflation is high, asset prices are in bubble territory, and as a result the whole system is vulnerable - we just need something to happen for it to be an excuse for the dominoes to fall as they should at the peak of an economic cycle, and should have happened two years ago. Then, once the dust settles in a couple years (possibly longer depending how bad) we can all grow sustainably (hopefully in more ways than one) again in the next boom cycle.
Thank you for reading.
This is not financial advice
CHANGE OF PLANS $VIX LONG ABOVE 30VIX IS HOLDING 30
this is a big deal
UK will continue selling gilts on november 1st
us midterms nov 8
alot of vol can happen
VIX is looking very bullishVix is currently trending in a falling wedge formation (possibly looking for a bullish brekaout)
If it breaks the wedge then theres a chance VIX is forced to the top resistance line of the pennant its formed.
Theres also a possibility that the breakout of the wedge forces it to breakout of pennant and push even higher.
If this happens then we could see a VERY red market.
Supporting ideas and technicals are pointed out in the chart.
Vix , Stay tuneAlmost identical move to the DXY.
Pulled back to 21ema
Formed a falling wedge
Bullish target 34
T
VIX is getting ready for that huge pop imoThis is getting super close. Wont rule out a fake down and then move up to above $60 level.
Some out there made a bet with Apr 2023 100 Calls for $4mil plus on Fri
VIX is telling you somethingVIX already broke the curve and even retested it.
We will doomp heavily in the coming weeks/months.
Don't invest long-term for now.
Volatility is coming!Vix is not looking good in the weekly charts.
Be careful about your stock positions..
Bullish vix over 30Steady up trend .
Retested former resistance Friday (White line) and bounced...
Unless we drop below 30 I'm bullish here. I think when the vix does break its uptrend the spy will break its downtrend (Inverse).
$VIX SHORT / LONG RISKThe $VIX is not breaking out here...contrary to many $VIX TA experts
we have experienced many events over the past few weeks and equities have failed to break lower, even after a CPI plunge
True FEAR and panic selling is not here yet
wait for the right time to attack the vix
CHEERS!!
Vix - bullish crossover - expect elevated vix in coming daysWe have bullish MA crossovers on the CBOE vix
In the past these crossovers have been pretty reliable and have led to extended bouts of volatility
SPX500 - bears still in controlThe failed to hold the channel trendline, so it's looking bad for bulls. A quick update on what I'm seeing with the structure on SPX, SPY and the VIX.
VIX still have room to goVIX hitting resistance around 34 but still pretty bullish and have another 9-10% room to grow targeting 37.
MAs are all in line. Overall still bullish
VIX Volatility only beginningVIX is showing higher lows and has broken above the Brim Level of a Cup and Handle.
This is problematic for a trader as it means a lot more jumpiness is coming.
It's also broken out of its downtrend on both chart and the RSI.
With the inflation rate going up, interest rates soon to go up in November and with more money going to be printed in the economy - this isn't good for the markets in the medium term.
Time to risk less per trade, I'd imagine.
MARKET THOUGHTS 10/14/22Grab a cup of coffee, wake up and read up lol
** (Not a Financial Advice, just sharing my own opinion and the process I do in the morning before I make a decision to trade.) **
As you guys are all aware the SPY went nuts yesterday, anything is possible in the market these days lol. Once the shorts got squeezed above 354 and FOMO kicked in it ran like it stole something :rofl: .
Now as you get ready for todays play here are things you should consider based on the charts and technical analysis:
- SPY, yesterday, just showed a possible sign of short term reversal from the divergence we've been talking about in the stream the whole week.
- The bounce was larger than expected and larger than usual, when a move like this happens one direction, there's a possible consolidation day the next day or pullback, unless volume continues and breaks above key levels continuing to squeeze the shorts and FOMO continues as well.
- If you are planning to go Gungho on going long, zoom out first and see the trendline on the daily and the pre-market action on SPY and where its at currently (See Chart Posted).
- Break of that trendline upwards can mean retest of the next resistance and probably even retest the next trendline up, but SPY has done its weekly range as of yesterdays candle, so slight chance it will continue breaking to the upside and do another big run. If anything, possible pump then pullback.
- The VIX on the weekly hit that trendline we talked about on the streams this week too causing the downward direction which usually does the opposite of the market, hence the run up yesterday.
** Scenario 1 ** VIX bounces above 9ema on the daily and stays above, market pullback.
** Scenario 2 ** VIX breaks below the 9ema on the daily, it will have about 1-2points max move today. Which can mean a pump in the market and will hit exhaustion, so pump and dump. (See VIX Chart Posted).
SPY
VIX
