3:30 pm updateMarket is still biased to the upside, but the fact that the rejected again at around 5500 is bearish for the time being. A gap fill tomorrow seems likely, we'll see how the overnight goes.
US500.F trade ideas
Potential bearish drop?S&P500 (US500) has reacted off the pivot and could drop to the 1st support.
Pivot: 5,480.90
1st Support: 5,099.50
1st Resistance: 5,778.60
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S&P500 Index Intraday Trend Analysis for April 23, 2025Market Timing tool signals Bearish Trend for the day and the Sell Signal got confirmed with Stop Loss @ 5471. Trailing Stop Loss for running sell is at 5394. First Target for the bearish trend is at 5318 and if the market moves down further, it may take support at 5173.
It's my view. Traders are suggested to follow technical analysis for trade entries with proper risk management rules.
S&P 500 | SPX500USD: Bulls Find Support — But Is It Enough?SPX500USD 12H TECHNICAL ANALYSIS 🔍
OVERALL TREND
📈 UPTREND (Tentative) — Market structure appears to be attempting a reversal from a recent pivot low. However, the macro trend remains under pressure unless price clears the key resistance range above 5,950.
📉RESISTANCE
🔴 6,152.5000 — PIVOT HIGH | Dynamic Resistance Level
🔴 6,086.2943 — SELL ORDER II
🔴 5,952.1652 — SELL ORDER I
📊ENTRIES & TARGETS
🎯 5,884.4400 — EXIT BUY | TP 4
🎯 5,640.5683 — BUY ORDER | TP 3
🎯 5,482.3500 — BUY ORDER | TP 2 | Mid-Pivot
🎯 5,254.5432 — BUY ORDER | TP 1
📈SUPPORT
🟢 5,021.6218 — BUY ORDER
🟢 4,879.2150 — BUY ORDER II
🟢 4,812.2000 — PIVOT LOW | Dynamic Support Level
📊OSCILLATOR SUMMARY
🧭 RSI (14): 51.98 — Neutral
📉 MACD Level: -41.34 — Buy Bias Forming
🚀 Momentum (10): -36.21 — Positive Divergence Developing
📊 ADX (14): 21.08 — Early Trend Formation
📉 Awesome Oscillator: -87.21 — Bearish but Flattening
🧮MOVING AVERAGE SUMMARY
✅ 10/20/30 EMA & SMA — All Showing Buy Signals
❌ 50/100/200 EMA & SMA — Still Bearish, Suggesting Long-Term Pressure
📊 VWMA (20): 5,289.90 — Bullish Price Reaction Above VWMA
📏 Ichimoku Base Line: 5,158.19 — Neutral, Needs Further Validation
🤓STRUCTURAL NOTES
Current price is battling between 5,300–5,400 resistance range — a break and close above 5,482 could trigger further upside
Significant bullish reversal candle formed near the last pivot low at 4,812
Volume profile suggests re-accumulation; price attempting to reclaim 5,300 structure
Momentum indicators show signs of shifting bullish, but not yet in strong confirmation territory
TRADE OUTLOOK 🔎
📈 Bullish bias above 5,254 with targets at 5,482 / 5,640 / 5,884
📉 Bearish pressure reactivates if price rejects 5,482 and closes below 5,021
👀 Monitor ADX for trend confirmation — under 25 = caution; above 25 = trend validation
🧪STRATEGY RECOMMENDATION
CONSERVATIVE APPROACH (Reversal Play):
— Entry: 5,254.54
— Targets: 5,482.35 / 5,640.56 / 5,884.44
— SL: Below 5,021.62
HIGH-RISK SCALP (Resistance Fade):
— Sell Order near 5,952.16 or 6,086.29
— Targets: 5,640 / 5,482
— SL: Above 6,152.50
“Discipline | Consistency | PAY-tience™”
PIVOTAL DAY AHEAD FOR $SPX: Will We Reclaim the Highs or Begin tTechnical Breakdown: We’re at a critical junction for the S&P 500. After completing a 5-wave structure, SP:SPX is teetering near a decision point. Two potential paths are now unfolding:
Bullish Scenario (🟢):
A daily close above 5386 would invalidate the current bear thesis.
This opens the door to a push toward the 90–100% Fib retracement zone (5685–5750).
Short-term traders may look to ride the momentum if 5485 is broken cleanly.
Bearish Scenario (🔴):
A rejection at current levels, coupled with a close below 5386 and a gap-fill back down, confirms the bearish triangle setup.
If this plays out, we’re targeting a drop to the 4600–4400 range based on the 1.618 and 2.618 Fibonacci extensions and broken trendline dynamics.
This aligns with the Elliott Wave breakdown (W5 peak, now in corrective ABC structure).
🧩 Macro Context:
High inflows to safe havens like gold suggest rising fear.
Volatility is elevated, and liquidity is thinning post-earnings season.
💥 Conclusion: Tomorrow’s close is not just another candle – it’s a potential macro trigger. Either we confirm a final leg higher in this cycle, or the bearish wave unfolds in full.
⏳ Watch 5386 closely.
Bias is now bullishThe Bias is up but I also discuss the alternative bearish count. Vix is at support here, but it's bias is currently down.
Tariff Talks Flip the Tape - 5400 Under FireWolfe Gasping, Bulls Grinning
Well, this is exactly what every bear didn’t want to wake up to…
Overnight, markets surged higher after Trump hinted at easing tariffs and gave Powell a thumbs-up. It’s like watching your opponent trip mid-game, then suddenly recover, score a hat trick, and throw you a smug grin.
That line in the sand we’ve been talking about?
5400.
It’s been the invalidation level for weeks – and now it’s being bulldozed like it never mattered.
This isn’t about guessing the news.
It’s about having a clear point where your bias says, “Okay, I’m out.”
The Wolfe was working… until it wasn’t.
And that’s okay.
Because while the bear swing has been fantastic, we’re now seeing what might be the higher low reversal we flagged a few weeks ago - just without the drop to 5000 first.
Frustrating? A little.
Unexpected? Not really.
Tradable? Absolutely.
Let’s look at how this flips our setup for today.
---
SPX Market View - Bull Bias Activated (Finally)
Well, that escalated quickly.
With the overnight futures surge and 5400 now breached, the Wolfe Wave is officially off the board. Our long-standing bear bias has been invalidated — and we flip bullish for the first time in weeks.
This is the power of having a system.
You don’t need to guess. You just need a line in the sand. Ours was 5400. Price crossed it. The bias flips.
Here’s what I’m watching now:
5400 is now the breakout zone – if it holds at the cash open, bulls have full control
Higher low structure playing out across the daily chart
GEX positioning will be key — I’ll be watching for hedging demand shifts to confirm upside stability
This doesn’t mean we go all-in bull mode with blind optimism.
It means we assess new setups in line with the price action, and if they confirm – we act.
Bull’s got the ball (for now).
Let’s see if he fumbles or scores.
GEX Analysis Update
5300 acting as the updated flip point overnight
SPX prices potentially gaping 100+ points assuming the futures hold their gains.
---
Expert Insights: Know Your Invalidation
❌ Clinging to a bias too long
It’s tempting to hold on to the story. “Wolfe’s still in play,” you tell yourself… even after price says otherwise.
✅ Know your invalidation level
5400 was the line. It’s been clear for weeks. Once price punched through it — the plan said, “That’s it. Game over for the bear.”
No ego. No hoping. No rewriting the script mid-trade.
Your system needs boundaries.
Otherwise, it’s not a system — it’s a story.
---
Rumour Has It…
Trump’s tweet this morning: “Tariffs are dumb. Powell’s alright. Markets UP!” Dow gained 200 in 10 seconds.
CNBC now referring to 5400 as “The Enlightenment Zone.”
The Wolfe Wave was last seen howling into the wind and fading into the distance.
(This section is entirely made-up satire. Probably.)
---
Fun Fact - The 5400 Flip
Here’s a kicker for you…
5400 has flipped bias more times than any other round number level in the SPX this year.
It's the psychological equivalent of a market mood swing.
And every time price hits it, traders start reaching for different narratives:
“It’s resistance.”
“Now it’s support.”
“No wait, it’s just a number.”
“Actually, it’s Fibonacci-magnet-retrograde!”
Sometimes it’s just this:
5400 = The Line Where We Flip.
Meme of the Day - “Wolfe’s Out. Bull’s In.”
IMAGES ON MAIN BLOG
Happy trading,
Phil
Less Brain, More Gain
…and may your trades be smoother than a cashmere codpiece
S&P500 Long and painful but necessary bottom formation.The S&P500 index (SPX) has been trading within a 2-year Bullish Megaphone pattern and the recent 2-month correction completed its latest Bearish Leg, as it reached the Higher Lows trend-line.
The massive rebound that took place there on April 07 may have turned out to be a highly volatile one but as mentioned on the title, it might be long and painful, but a necessary process nonetheless. That's mainly because it is the strongest correction since 2022 and the longest Bearish Leg of the pattern.
The market remains highly volatile until it gets a clear signal, bearish below the current Support of the 1W MA200 (red trend-line) or bullish above the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line). Despite the rather short-term uncertainty, the similarities with the Megaphone's previous bottom are uncanny, both having formed their Low on 1D RSI Double Bottom patterns.
Given that this previous Low initiated a massive +50% 1 year Bullish Leg/ rally, we expect to see at least 7100 on this next one by mid-2026.
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💸💸💸💸💸💸
👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
$SPX Urgent! My <3 & My Soul: Slow Bleed Crash to 3k by Q4 26' Do be warned. Very important post here. I put my heart and soul into this. I made a video earlier and then it got deleted by accident, so I made a less happy one right after. I've got news for all the bulls and investors out there that feel they will be able to continue buying every single dip out there. Get ready for the dip that keeps dipping. Big names already cracking heavy. NASDAQ:META NASDAQ:TSLA NASDAQ:AMD NASDAQ:NVDA to name a few. Big tech is getting cleaned out and layoffs are on the rise. Tariffs create huge amounts of uncertainty. I don't feel like this is rocket science. Buffet is all cash. 89% of Hedge Fund managers believe the US market is the most expensive its ever been and Tutes have been selling at the highest rate ever before. I think it's time the US finally gets a shake down. Bullish conditioning has been running rampant, and I've seen Social Media Accounts discourage charting and only paying attention to price action? Price action involves the entire collective, not just one Timeframe. Anyways, here's an overlay from 01' ... the only one I could find that matches. Says short 560 around May 7th and then take profits around 500 again. Let's make this a nice one. Calls till 560 into May then flip to Puts into June. From then short 530 every time you can. $450 is My first target after we break previous lows. I will update as we go. Have a good one yall.
S&P500 Long then Short: Last Wave 5 of 5In this video, I updated the wave counts for S&P500 and expects a last wave 5 of 5 (thus the long). I uses 2 Fibonacci extensions to project the final target and chose the lower of the target as the TP.
Once the target is reached, then we look for a reversal signal before entering short. The target of the short will be the end of sub-wave 4 as illustrated.
Good luck!
U.S. Bulls Take Charge: S&P 500 Set to Break OutHello,
📊 S&P 500 Market Outlook – Pro-Bullish Perspective
🔥 Market Recap: The S&P 500 recently saw a significant dip, marking a 1-year low at 4805.92, largely attributed to the shockwaves caused by President Trump’s sweeping tariff announcement on April 2. This move sent markets into a tailspin, creating heightened volatility levels not seen since the early pandemic days.
However, savvy traders recognized opportunity amidst the panic and entered strategic buy zones around those lows. Since then, the index has managed to stabilize above key technical levels, signaling potential bullish momentum building from the ground up.
🧭 Current Key Technical Levels to Watch:
1W Pivot Point (PP): ✅ Holding above 5224.13
1D Pivot Point (PP): ⚠️ Testing resistance at 5297.05
1M Strong Support/Resistance: ⛔ Acting as resistance at 5329.31
🚀 Bullish Confirmation Pathway:
To fully confirm a bottom-up bullish reversal, we’re looking for:
✅ Sustained close above the 1D PP @ 5297.05
✅ Break and hold above the 1M Resistance @ 5329.31
✅ Momentum toward the 1Y PP @ 5550.97
If these levels are conquered with conviction, it opens the door for an extended upside move toward 5878.58, aligning with a broader bullish sentiment.
🛑 Cautionary Downside Scenario:
Although currently less likely, a failure to maintain support above the 1W PP @ 5224.13 could reopen downside risk in the short term. We remain watchful of that level as a bull-bear pivot.
🌐 Macro Overview – Tariff Shock & Earnings Spotlight:
Trump’s abrupt tariff move has reshuffled the global economic deck, and investors are still processing its implications.
The S&P 500 is currently down ~14% from its February highs, but showing resilience.
Earnings season is now center stage, with major players like Tesla, Alphabet, IBM, and Boeing under the microscope.
⚠️ Volatility Index (VIX) is down from post-tariff highs (~60) to ~30, still elevated from the long-term median of 17.6, signaling cautious optimism.
💬 CEO Sentiment Matters:
As JJ Kinahan from IG North America noted:
“The view of CEOs going forward has never been more important.”
With traditional guidance uncertain, investors are leaning on transparent, scenario-based outlooks like United Airlines’ “dual roadmap” approach.
🔋 Magnificent Seven on Watch:
Alphabet: -20% YTD
Tesla: -40% YTD
These leaders are key sentiment barometers. If they bounce, the broader market is likely to follow.
🏛️ Fed & Trump Tensions:
Trump recently stated that Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s termination “cannot come fast enough,” pushing for rate cuts.
Powell, however, remains cautious, citing the need for more economic data before acting.
✍️ Final Note – A Cooling Tariff War?
💬 According to Trump’s latest statement, the tone around tariffs is beginning to cool, hinting at possible de-escalation.
This development adds further bullish tailwinds to the broader market outlook.
✅ Summary:
We are leaning bullish here with the base-building process in motion. Key levels are aligning, volatility is easing, and clarity from corporate earnings could be the catalyst to propel markets upward.
Watch for a clean breakout above 5329 — that’s where the real confirmation begins. Eyes on the prize: 5878.58 👀📈
The Support and Resistance outlined in green and red are the respective support/resistance for this pair currently for 1M-1Y timeframes!
No Nonsense. Just Really Good Market Insights. Leave a Boost
TradeWithTheTrend3344
The SPX On Track To A New All-Time High In 2025 (6,958— Soon!)Do not let anybody distract you, do not allow yourself to be deceived. Know that the market is very resilient and this has been true for the longest time ever. The catastrophe that everybody is always expecting and is always due is never true. Ok, there was a correction, but that's it, from now on the market grows. That's just how it works.
Very, very strong bull markets, and the bear markets weak and short.
The S&P 500 Index (SPX) looks great right now and nothing can surpass the wisdom that comes from a chart. A chart cannot lie nor can mislead you in any way.
The charts have pure raw data, you can make your own interpretation of this data but there are no mistakes.
Here the chart shows a very strong higher low. The 0.5 Fib. retracement level was tested and it holds. Now, saying a "new All-Time High" might be speculation, but saying that prices will rise is simply how technical analysis works.
A low first pierced 0.5 and challenged 0.618 fib. The candle closed above and full green, the highest volume since 2010 and that is a clear signal that the correction reached its end.
The SPX is bullish now of course.
The next week we get a red week and this led to the present day, a higher low. A higher low is bullish and notice, the 0.618 level is no longer relevant. The correction that happened was really strong, there is absolutely no need for more.
So a strong correction developed and what comes next?
Prepare for a major rise, a new impulsive bullish wave.
The minimum target starts at 5,665. This is the resistance where the drop got started, this level needs to be tested based on TA. Depending on how this level is handled, we can extract how the market will continue to behave.
» I will make a prediction, the SPX will hit a new All-Time High in the coming months.
Thank you for reading.
Namaste.
Approaching the 200-Week SMA – AgainHistory doesn’t repeat… but it sure does rhyme.
If all you did was buy the S&P 500 every time it touched the 200-week moving average, you would’ve: ✔️ Bought 2011, 2016, 2018, 2020, 2022… 💰 Absolutely cleaned house.
Now in 2025, we’re approaching the same level again. That SMA has acted like a trampoline for the last 15 years — will it bounce once more?
🧠 Food for thought as fear builds and the market cools.
Let’s see if the buyers step in where they always have. 👀
S&P500 Index Intraday Trend Analysis for April 22, 2025Intraday Trend is Bullish with Resistance1 @ 5410 and Resistance2 @ 5507. Market Timing tool is bullish for the day and other indicators are in the green. Overall the S&P500 Index intraday trend is Bullish.
This is my view but not a recommendation to buy or sell. Traders are advised to do their own technical study before entering into the trade with proper risk management.
SP500 US500 update 21.04.2025 My vision until the end of AprilIf someone thinks that the bear market in the US indices has arrived, I want to show you a monthly chart that shows that the trend is still long. We got a reaction of the 0.5 Fibonacci zone. But we entered the monthly accumulation with a gradual test of the Last Structure FVG.
At this timeframe, the price has already broken the ascending structure, which means that in order to regain its ascending status, the structure needs to invert the weekly FVG, in other words, to consolidate above the 5554 level.
So far, there are no long positions, but if we look at the monthly FVG target test, we can try to find short positions when the price reaches 5554 and does not consolidate above this level
1. Trump’s Economic Vision in 2025
Introduced a 10% baseline global tariff starting April 5, 2025.
Over 25% tariffs were imposed on key trade partners like China and Mexico.
Objectives: reduce the $887B trade deficit, combat currency manipulation, and strengthen domestic industry.
Domestically, Trump extended the Tax Cuts & Jobs Act (risking a EUROTLX:4T budget deficit over 10 years) and prioritized deregulation, particularly in fossil fuels.
2. Trump’s Relationship with the Federal Reserve
Resurfaces criticism of Fed Chair Jerome Powell, calling for interest rate cuts.
Pushed a Supreme Court case challenging the Fed’s independence, aiming to give the President authority to remove the Fed Chair.
Analysts warn this threatens central bank credibility, potentially raising long-term inflation expectations.
3. Impact of Tariffs on Economic Stability
Long-term GDP projected to fall by 6%; wages by 5% (Wharton Model).
Households face up to $5,200 in additional annual costs due to price increases.
Investment and exports decline; EU exports could drop 8% to 66%.
While benefiting sectors like steel, tariffs risk broader job losses in supply-chain industries.
4. Federal Reserve’s Challenges
The Fed navigates inflationary pressure while maintaining economic stability.
Only one rate cut expected in 2025 despite political pressure.
Tariffs complicate monetary policy by fueling external inflation and supply disruptions.
5. S&P 500 and Market Outlook
S&P 500 dropped 7% after new tariffs were announced (stagflation fears).
Despite past growth during Trump’s first term (+68%), current policies increase volatility.
Risks include reduced capital inflow, weakened Fed independence, and ongoing global retaliation.
✅ Conclusion
Donald Trump’s 2025 economic strategy hinges on aggressive tariffs and pressure on the Federal Reserve to lower rates. While intended to stimulate domestic growth, these moves contribute to inflation, challenge institutional independence, and heighten market volatility. For investors and policymakers, the path forward demands careful navigation of an economic environment shaped by protectionism, policy conflict, and fragile monetary stability.
So far, everything does not look good. I am waiting for the approval of the BTC reserve for May (next month). This could positively affect the American economy in the SHORT TERM.
Best regards, EXCAVO
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Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
[D] SPX - 22.4.2025 (Scenario 1 & 2)To complement the earlier publish idea, I'm hereby adding another scenario as I'd feel dissatisfied with several candles being displaced. Both tell the same story as I'm fundamentally remain bearish over a prolonged period of time. I expect the things to get moving as soon as mid May for a major move. This year's summer time might hit different.
Arshitecture / 15 Min Long Position SP500Based on the 86.4% reliability of flag patterns and considering all of them within the context of intraday trading, this zone appears to be a favorable area for entering a long position.
S&P500 INTRADAY resistance retest US stock futures are pointing higher after Monday's sharp selloff. Despite the bounce, safe-haven demand remains strong — gold hit a new record, and the yen strengthened past 140/USD for the first time since September.
Donald Trump called for immediate Fed rate cuts, warning that the economy could slow without action. He argued inflation is not a concern, citing falling energy and food prices, and criticized Fed Chair Jerome Powell once again.
The US reported “significant progress” on a trade deal with India after talks between VP JD Vance and PM Modi. The roadmap aims to ease trade tensions and potentially shield India from future US tariffs.
Key Support and Resistance Levels
Resistance Level 1: 5509
Resistance Level 2: 5660
Resistance Level 3: 5787
Support Level 1: 5110
Support Level 2: 4947
Support Level 3: 4816
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
[D] SPX - 22.4.2024I felt like I wanted to post something positive amid the madness, although I remain bearish on SPX and USD since the beginning of 2024 - as my past predictions suggest. So far, the greatest businessman and dealmaker, Donald Trump has successfully outperformed on the time line most of the expectations that I deemed possible in a real-world setting. If that continues to hold true, it is possible that hereby - somewhat optimistic - prediction will again lag behind the reality on the scale of days to a couple of weeks. What I was hoping for, was a much welcomed break during the summer and a full-blown downfall into a recession afterwards. I'm much afraid, things I expected in 2026 might arrive considerably sooner.
[04/22] 𝟬𝗗𝗧𝗘 𝗦𝗣𝗫 𝗚𝗘𝗫 𝗥𝗲𝘃𝗶𝗲𝘄Contextual Thinking:
Yesterday’s sharp drop was fully bought back — for now. We're currently at a call resistance level, so the down move may continue today.
Gameplay:
Below 5205, I lean towards being cautious or outright bearish. A hypothetical selloff could intensify below 5170 (Gamma Flip level).
I'm definitely not targeting below 5100, but based on the current options pricing, the market seems to be pricing in 5100 — yesterday’s low — as the most pessimistic scenario.
Caution:
Given the significant intraday swings over the past 24 hours (both up and down), the market is likely to close somewhere between the high and low of the day due to ongoing uncertainty. This is typical in such volatile conditions, and I see this as the most probable outcome.
So unless strong buying pressure or good news emerges, I expect the market to close between 5100 and 5205.
However, if we break above 5205, we could witness a positive gamma squeeze , with 5250 being the first upside target.
