Get started
SPX500 FutureSPX500 FutureSPX500 Future

SPX500 Future

No trades
See on Supercharts
Overview News
Ideas
Discussions Technicals Seasonals

US500.F trade ideas

S&P 500 Outlook Post-PowellBelow is a focused prediction for the S&P 500’s direction in both the short term (next few days to 1–2 weeks) and long term (next 3–12 months) following Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s speech on April 16, 2025. The analysis is based on Powell’s remarks, market reactions, and economic context, avoiding speculative overreach and grounding predictions in available data. Short-Term Prediction (Next Few Days to 1–2 Weeks) Outlook: Downward Bias (60%–70% Probability of Decline) Prediction: The S&P 500 is likely to face further declines, potentially dropping toward 4,800–4,900 or Morgan Stanley’s projected 4,700 level (a 7%–8% decline from the April 8, 2025, close of 5,074.08, likely lower post-speech). A temporary bounce is possible but expected to be limited. Key Drivers: Hawkish Fed Stance: Powell’s cautious tone, emphasizing persistent inflation (PCE at 2.3% headline, 2.6% core) and no urgency for rate cuts (rates steady at 4.25%–4.5%), has dampened hopes for monetary easing. His view that Trump’s tariffs could drive sustained inflation increases the risk of prolonged high rates, pressuring equities. Tariff Uncertainty: Powell’s remarks on “larger-than-expected” tariffs, alongside U.S.-China trade tensions and the World Trade Organization’s slashed 2025 trade forecast, fuel fears of a trade war, higher costs, and slower growth. Weak Sentiment: Declining household (March 2025 confidence at its lowest since January 2021) and business sentiment, as noted by Powell, could curb spending and investment, weighing on stocks. Market Momentum: The S&P 500’s 9% drop in the week ending April 8 and its decline during Powell’s speech signal bearish momentum. Technical weakness, with many stocks below their 200-day moving averages, suggests vulnerability. Potential for a Bounce (30%–40% Probability): Oversold conditions could trigger a technical rally toward 5,200–5,300, especially if trade policy fears ease (e.g., signals of negotiation) or softer economic data renews rate-cut hopes. However, Powell’s inflation focus limits upside, making a sustained rally unlikely. Key Levels: Support: 5,000 (psychological), 4,800–4,900, or 4,700 (Morgan Stanley’s target). Resistance: 5,200–5,300 (recent pre-sell-off levels). Catalysts to Watch: Q1 2025 GDP (due in ~2 weeks): Weak growth could deepen fears, while strong data might reinforce inflation concerns. Trade policy: Escalation (e.g., new tariffs) could drive further declines; de-escalation could spark a bounce. Inflation data (CPI, PCE) and consumer sentiment reports. Short-Term Verdict: Expect downward pressure toward 4,800–4,700, with a possible short-lived bounce to 5,200–5,300 if positive catalysts emerge. Monitor GDP, trade developments, and Fed commentary. Long-Term Prediction (Next 3–12 Months) Outlook: Cautiously Optimistic with Volatility (55%–60% Probability of Modest Gains) Prediction: Over the next 3–12 months, the S&P 500 is likely to experience volatility but could see modest gains, potentially reaching 5,500–5,800 (8%–14% above April 8’s 5,074.08 close) by mid-2026, assuming no severe economic downturn or trade war escalation. However, significant risks could cap gains or lead to stagnation/declines. Key Drivers Supporting Gains: Economic Resilience: Powell noted the U.S. economy remains “in a solid position,” with a balanced labor market (4.1% unemployment, 150,000 jobs added monthly) and positive consumer spending. If growth stabilizes (e.g., Q1 2025 slowdown proves temporary), corporate earnings could support higher valuations. Historical Trends: The S&P 500 often performs well in the second half of election years under a first-term president, with gains potentially extending into the following year. Seasonal strength could bolster markets if trade and inflation fears subside. Potential Fed Pivot: If inflation moderates toward 2% (e.g., due to weaker demand or resolved supply chain issues), the Fed could signal rate cuts by mid-2025, boosting equities. Markets historically rally when monetary policy eases. Corporate Adaptability: Companies may adjust to tariffs by diversifying supply chains or passing costs to consumers, mitigating earnings damage over time. Key Risks Capping or Reversing Gains: Persistent Inflation: If tariffs drive sustained inflation (Powell’s concern), the Fed may maintain or raise rates, squeezing valuations. Core PCE above 2.6% or rising CPI could trigger tighter policy. Trade War Escalation: A full-blown U.S.-China trade war or broader global trade disruptions could slow growth, hurt earnings, and push the S&P 500 toward bear market territory (e.g., 4,500 or lower). Economic Slowdown: If Q1 2025’s slowdown (weak GDP, souring sentiment) persists, consumer spending and corporate investment could falter, risking a recession. Morgan Stanley’s bearish scenario (4,700) could extend if growth weakens further. Geopolitical and Policy Uncertainty: Trump’s trade policies, combined with global risks (e.g., China’s response to chip restrictions), could keep volatility high, deterring investment. Key Scenarios: Bull Case (20%–25% Probability): Inflation moderates, trade tensions ease, and the Fed cuts rates by Q3 2025. The S&P 500 could rally to 5,800–6,000, driven by strong earnings and renewed optimism. Base Case (55%–60% Probability): Volatility persists, but growth stabilizes, and tariffs are partially mitigated. The S&P 500 grinds higher to 5,500–5,800, with periods of pullbacks. Bear Case (20%–25% Probability): Inflation spikes, trade wars escalate, or growth slows sharply, prompting tighter Fed policy or recession fears. The S&P 500 could fall to 4,500–4,700 or lower. Key Levels: Upside Targets: 5,500 (near recent highs), 5,800 (moderate growth scenario). Downside Risks: 4,700 (Morgan Stanley’s target), 4,500 (bear market threshold). Catalysts to Watch: Fed policy: FOMC meetings (e.g., May 6–7, 2025) and Powell’s comments on inflation vs. growth. Economic data: GDP, inflation (PCE, CPI), unemployment, and consumer confidence over Q2–Q3 2025. Trade policy: Resolution or escalation of U.S.-China tariffs and global trade dynamics. Earnings: Q1–Q2 2025 corporate earnings for signs of tariff impact or resilience. Long-Term Verdict: The S&P 500 is likely to see modest gains to 5,500–5,800 by mid-2026, driven by economic resilience and potential Fed easing, but volatility will persist due to tariff and inflation risks. A bearish outcome (4,500–4,700) is possible if trade wars or inflation worsen. Stay vigilant on Fed signals, trade policy, and economic indicators.
OANDA:SPX500USD
by SnyperTA
1
S&P 500 Index Goes 'Death Crossed' Again, Due To Unruly EconomyThe "Death Cross" is a technical chart pattern signaling potential bearish momentum in the US stock market, occurring when a short-term moving average (typically the 50-day) crosses below a long-term moving average (usually the 200-day). Despite its foreboding name, historical data shows its implications are often less dire than perceived, serving as a coincident indicator of market weakness rather than a definitive predictor of collapse. Historical Examples and Market Impact The death cross gained notoriety for preceding major market downturns: 2000 Dot-Com Bubble: The Nasdaq Composite’s death cross in June 2000 coincided with the burst of the tech bubble, leading to a prolonged bear market. 2008 Financial Crisis: The S&P 500’s death cross in December 2007 foreshadowed the 2008 crash, with the index losing over 50% of its value by early 2009. 2020 COVID-19 Crash: The S&P 500, Dow Jones, and Nasdaq 100 all formed death crosses in March 2020 amid pandemic-driven panic, though markets rebounded sharply within months. 2022 Ukraine's War Crisis: The S&P 500, Dow Jones, and Nasdaq 100 all formed death crosses in March 2022 due to proinflationary surge on Ukraine's war and Arab-Israel conflict, leading to a prolonged bear market within next twelve months, up to March quarter in the year 2023. These examples highlight the pattern’s association with extreme volatility, but its predictive power is inconsistent. For instance, the 2022 death cross in the S&P 500—its first in two years—occurred amid Fed rate hikes and geopolitical tensions, yet the market stabilized within weeks rather than entering a prolonged downturn. Perspectives on Reliability and Use Cases While the death cross reflects deteriorating short-term momentum, its utility depends on context: Lagging Nature: As a lagging indicator, it confirms existing trends rather than forecasting new ones. The 50-day average crossing below the 200-day often occurs after prices have already declined. False Signals: Post-2020 data shows the S&P 500 gained an average of 6.3% one year after a death cross, with Nasdaq Composite returns doubling typical averages six months post-cross. Combined Analysis: Traders pair it with metrics like trading volume or MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) to validate signals. Higher selling volume during a death cross strengthens its bearish case. Strategic Implications for Investors For market participants, the death cross serves as a cautionary tool rather than a standalone sell signal: Short-Term Traders: May use it to hedge long positions or initiate short bets, particularly if corroborated by weakening fundamentals. Long-Term Investors: Often treat it as a reminder to reassess portfolio diversification, especially during elevated valuations or macroeconomic uncertainty. Contrarian Opportunities: Historical rebounds post-death cross—such as the 7.2% Nasdaq gain three months after the signal—suggest potential buying opportunities for risk-tolerant investors. Fundamental Challenge Stocks Extend Drop as Powell Sees Economy ‘Moving Away’ From Fed Goals Powell sees economy ‘moving away’ from job, price goals due to Trump's tariff chainsaw. Fed well positioned to wait for policy clarity. Strong jobs market depends on price stability, he adds. Stocks extend declines, bonds rally as Fed chair speaks. Conclusion The "Death Cross" remains a contentious yet widely monitored pattern. Its dramatic name and association with past crises amplify its psychological impact, but empirical evidence underscores its role as one of many tools in technical analysis. Investors who contextualize it with broader market data—such as earnings trends, interest rates, and macroeconomic indicators—are better positioned to navigate its signals. While it may foreshadow turbulence, its historical track record emphasizes resilience, with markets often recovering losses within months of the pattern’s appearance. -- Best wishes, Your Beloved @PandorraResearch Team 😎 // Think Big. Risk Less
SP:SPX
by PandorraResearch
"US500/SPX500" Index Market Money Heist Plan (Day / Scalping)🌟Hi! Hola! Ola! Bonjour! Hallo! Marhaba!🌟 Dear Money Makers & Robbers, 🤑 💰💸✈️ Based on 🔥Thief Trading style technical and fundamental analysis🔥, here is our master plan to heist the "US500 / SPX500" Index CFD Market. Please adhere to the strategy I've outlined in the chart, which emphasizes long entry. Our aim is to escape near the high-risk ATR Zone. Risky level, overbought market, consolidation, trend reversal, trap at the level where traders and bearish robbers are stronger. 🏆💸"Take profit and treat yourself, traders. You deserve it!💪🏆🎉 Entry 📈 : "The heist is on! Wait for the MA breakout (5500) then make your move - Bullish profits await!" however I advise to Place Buy stop orders above the Moving average (or) Place buy limit orders within a 15 or 30 minute timeframe most recent or swing, low or high level for Pullback entries. 📌I strongly advise you to set an "alert (Alarm)" on your chart so you can see when the breakout entry occurs. Stop Loss 🛑: "🔊 Yo, listen up! 🗣️ If you're lookin' to get in on a buy stop order, don't even think about settin' that stop loss till after the breakout 🚀. You feel me? Now, if you're smart, you'll place that stop loss where I told you to 📍, but if you're a rebel, you can put it wherever you like 🤪 - just don't say I didn't warn you ⚠️. You're playin' with fire 🔥, and it's your risk, not mine 👊." 📍 Thief SL placed at the recent/swing low level Using the 1H timeframe (5200) Day trade basis. 📍 SL is based on your risk of the trade, lot size and how many multiple orders you have to take. 🏴‍☠️Target 🎯: 5750 (or) Escape Before the Target 🧲Scalpers, take note 👀 : only scalp on the Long side. If you have a lot of money, you can go straight away; if not, you can join swing traders and carry out the robbery plan. Use trailing SL to safeguard your money 💰. 💰💵💴💸"US500/SPX500" Index CFD Market Heist Plan (Day / Scalping Trade) is currently experiencing a bullishness🐂.., driven by several key factors.👆👆👆 📰🗞️Get & Read the Fundamental, Macro economics, COT Report, Geopolitical and News Analysis, Sentimental Outlook, Intermarket Analysis, Index-Specific Analysis,Positioning and future trend targets with Overall Score...... go ahead to check 👉👉👉🔗🔗 ⚠️Trading Alert : News Releases and Position Management 📰 🗞️ 🚫🚏 As a reminder, news releases can have a significant impact on market prices and volatility. To minimize potential losses and protect your running positions, we recommend the following: Avoid taking new trades during news releases Use trailing stop-loss orders to protect your running positions and lock in profits 💖Supporting our robbery plan 💥Hit the Boost Button💥 will enable us to effortlessly make and steal money 💰💵. Boost the strength of our robbery team. Every day in this market make money with ease by using the Thief Trading Style.🏆💪🤝❤️🎉🚀 I'll see you soon with another heist plan, so stay tuned 🤑🐱‍👤🤗🤩
CAPITALCOM:US500Long
by Thief_Trader
S&P500 - Temporary snap back rally to kill some bears ?Markets are in correction mode as everyone has (hopefully) noticed by now, with the NASDAQ and S&P500 breaching key lows. Forced selling like we saw on Friday usually gives us a reaction rally that can last a few days. Prices have already dropped too much already so don't try an be bold now with any agressive shorting, especially if you plan to keep positions overnight! You have to stay alert and react quickly to be able to profit on short-term setups within this bear market. Be disciplined, protect your capital, stay active—this is not an investor's market !!!
SP:SPXLong
by ElliottWaveBelgium
3
$SPX - APRIL 16 2025 contract Today’s Trading Range has Downward pressure from the top - you can see it in the way the moving averages come down and their angle. The implied move is 5320-5475 today (1.35%) 5295-5500 tomorrow (1.88%) And 30 day average volatility 5205-5590. (3.53%) That spreads am I looking to today? 5320/5296 Bull put spreads feel too close for me… But I’m still keeping them on my radar. That is 25 dollars wide. If we Trade up 5475/5500 That’s a real possibility because of the 1hr 200MA coming down like that. (That is also a 25$ wide spread today.) But more likely - and especially because we have Jerome powell today at 1:30 ET, I will be looking 5230/5205 bull put spreads & 5565/5590 above. Big Bear gap at the top as well. Let’s see how it goes today.
SP:SPX
by SPYder_QQQueen_Trading
A Wolfe Wave? Maybe. Another Win? Definitely. | SPX Analysis 16 What do you call it when you wake up, sip your tea, and realise the market is exactly where you thought it would be? Answer: another day following the damn plan. Yesterday’s price action? Snooze city. But tucked away inside that inside day was a lovely little income win, all thanks to those glorious GEX levels we’ve had our eyes glued to for weeks. 5400/5425 was once again the no-go zone. SPX tiptoed up, chickened out, and reversed politely on cue. While retail traders yawned or second-guessed, we quietly hit our numbers. Again. And while the surface was calm, beneath the charts... something’s stirring. --- 🎯 "Same Setup. Same Result." Some traders chase action. We wait for systematic decision-making framework. While the masses complained about a boring market day, we snagged another payday. The setup was textbook: resistance at 5400/5425, backed by GEX, ADD extremes, and the ol’ "...oh and..." wedge-in-the-making. Throw in a mechanical bear Tag 'n Turn and we were go for launch. The overnight futures have started to crack the two-day range. One of the perks of short-dated expirations? You don't need massive moves - just a push in your direction, and the premium does the work for you. And here's a wildcard for your "...oh and..." notebook: 👀 Possible Wolfe Wave forming. If valid, we could be looking at a gravity slide down to 5000. Is it the holy grail? Nah. But if it lines up with pulse bars and structure, I’ll be ready. --- GEX Analysis Update 5425 again 🎓 Expert Insight – "Pattern First, Prediction Later" Common Trading Mistake: Jumping on a trade just because the news made your pulse spike. Fix It: Let your levels do the talking. GEX, ADD, Tag 'n Turns… the market leaves breadcrumbs. Follow those, not the headlines. Don’t predict. React with structure. Trade setups, not emotions. Repeat winners are born from repeatable processes. --- 🤓 Fun Market Fact The Wolfe Wave pattern is named after Bill Wolfe and is often misunderstood as some esoteric mystery. But really? It’s just a glorified channel break with attitude. It projects a reversal target based on converging trendlines, often in five-wave structures. The magic? The final wave usually slams to a specific line, called the EPA/ETA - and can happen quickly if volatility kicks in. Most people don’t spot it until it’s too late. But if you know what to look for, it becomes a spicy tool in the AntiVestor arsenal. 🐺📉 Happy trading, Phil Less Brain, More Gain …and may your trades be smoother than a cashmere codpiece
SP:SPXShort
by MrPhilNewton
China is about to decided whether retailiate or not. Donald Trump and hes administration went to far and to many direction. EU and China at the same time is just too much but tretening the whole world is just an enormous startegic error. He made woke up not1 but 170 bear at the same time while the bears were sleeping and dreaming. And the dream ended. The USA not enymore realiable, trustworty, and therefore friendly country. The bears are dissapointed and angrys. They dont wanna have does fals dreams at the next time, and its seems that Trump is in a deadend roed. Honestly this story can be continued for pages but lets just speak about the an abnormal situation. BONDS UP 10Y 5Y - trough agressive selling of US debt which is really will tied up the FED hands if the inflation does not happen due to the lack of the tarrifs. 10Y is at the 4,3 The questions can china put the USA in a situation then interest rate cat wount help on the longrun since China and may some of their contries under their influence reaching high detach in a US10Y 5Y and interest rate relation and sending US in to debt cicle. The slow one is that that will slowly sell as much debt of US that they are cancelling the fed rate cuts. The fast one is sending aup rates by at least 6% and making the big boys on the stock market to capitulate. I will update and elaborate this idea better , but I hope if someone reads gets some hints.
PEPPERSTONE:US500
by ElGatoTrade
Bullish bounce off pullback support?S&P500 is falling towards the support level which is a pullback support that lines up with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and could bounce from this level to our take profit. Entry: 5,326.10 Why we like it: There is a pullback support level that aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. Stop loss: 5,211.08 Why we like it: There is a pullback support level that lines up with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement. Take profit: 5,517.82 Why we like it: There is an overlap resistance level. Enjoying your TradingView experience? Review us! Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
VANTAGE:SP500Long
by VantageMarkets
SPY: Breakout Brewing?📍SPX500 | Triangle Compression Before Breakout? SPX500 is currently coiling into a symmetrical triangle on the 5-min chart, suggesting a volatility expansion is imminent. 🔍 Fibonacci Levels in Play: Key Support: 5,419 – 5,428 (0.5 to 0.618 retracement) Breakout Target: 5,482.83 (Fib 1.382) Higher Projections: 5,499.94 (1.618), 5,516.82 (1.854) 📈 Probabilities: Bullish Breakout → 5,455 / 5,483 = 65% Sideways Chop in 5,420–5,440 range = 20% Bearish Fade < 5,419 = 15% 🚨 Watching for confirmation above 5,434 with volume for long entry. This setup aligns with our high-probability DSS framework for intraday signals. Mark your levels. Monitor the breakout. 🧠 Discipline is your alpha. 📊 Chart by: Wavervanir International LLC #SPX500 #TradingView #TechnicalAnalysis #Fibonacci #TrianglePattern #BreakoutStrategy #SmartMoney #QuantEdge #Wavervanir #MarketUpdate #DayTrading #DSS #SP500
FX:SPX500Long
by Wavervanir_International_LLC