Weekly Outlook: XAUUSD, #SP500, #BRENT | 19 December 2025XAUUSD: BUY 4327.20, SL 4300.00, TP 4420.00
Gold enters the week of December 15–19, 2025 near record highs, with prices holding around $4,327 per ounce. The main support comes from expectations of lower US rates following the Federal Reserve’s December rate cut, as well as the market’s sensitivity to any signs of slowing growth. Demand is also reinforced by risk-off sentiment linked to geopolitical tensions and news about broader investor access to gold via funds in major markets.
For the week ahead, the key drivers are fresh US macro data and decisions from leading central banks. If US bond yields and the dollar keep easing, interest in gold is likely to remain strong. A restraining scenario would be the opposite: stronger US data that pushes the dollar and yields higher. In the base case, gold looks resilient, but headline-driven volatility may stay elevated.
Trading recommendation: BUY 4327.20, SL 4300.00, TP 4420.00
#SP500: BUY 6846, SL 6780, TP 7040
US equities start the week with mixed sentiment: after sharp moves in some technology names, investors are becoming more selective, but the broader backdrop remains supportive. S&P 500 futures hover near 6,846, and the focus is on the rate path and the health of the US economy. The recent Fed rate cut helps expectations for lower financing costs and supports risk appetite.
This week’s spotlight is on a heavy central-bank calendar (including Japan, the UK, and the euro area) and key US releases (some statistics are published with delays), which can quickly shift positioning. A constructive scenario for the index is the absence of negative surprises on inflation and jobs alongside expectations of a more accommodative policy stance later on. Risks to the upside include a sudden deterioration in the external backdrop or renewed concerns about stretched valuations in parts of the market.
Trading recommendation: BUY 6846, SL 6780, TP 7040
#BRENT: SELL 61.44, SL 62.10, TP 59.40
Brent opens the week around $61.44 per barrel. In the near term, prices are supported by supply-disruption risks — notably around Venezuela, sanctions constraints, and isolated attacks on oil infrastructure. Such headlines can trigger quick spikes higher even when demand is not particularly strong.
However, fundamentally, the week’s dominant theme is excess supply and rising inventories. A number of international assessments and US outlooks point to a risk of market surplus in 2026 and downside pressure on prices if current production levels persist. In practice, this means rallies may more often meet selling interest, and the market could react sharply to any signals of weaker demand or higher supply. As a result, the baseline bias for the week is mildly negative, with volatility likely to remain elevated.
Trading recommendation: SELL 61.44, SL 62.10, TP 59.40
