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SPY/SPX500: Bearish Setup Ahead of Key Macro Events🔍 15-Min Chart Analysis – April 30, 2025 The S&P 500 (SPX500) is currently facing resistance near the 5,560.65 zone, a confluence of a key Fibonacci level (0.382 retracement) and a rising wedge upper boundary. Price has shown signs of rejection after a recovery from the ORB low of 5,505.88, and is struggling to break above 5,557–5,560, which aligns with a prior supply zone. 🔧 Technical Breakdown: Bearish Rising Wedge Formation: Price is respecting the wedge trendlines, suggesting a potential breakdown. Fibonacci Confluence Zones: Resistance: 0.382 at 5,557.18 Support: 1.382 extension aligns with 5,508.75, which is just above the ORB low and a possible target. Short Bias Trigger: A clean break below the wedge support (~5,545) could accelerate downside. Target Zones: 🎯 First target: 5,524.39 (ORB low) 🎯 Second target: 5,508–5,505 area (Fibo 1.382 + ORB range support) 🔮 Probability Outlook: Bearish bias: 65% Bullish breakout: 25% Sideways consolidation: 10% 🧠 Macro Context: With U.S. GDP and FOMC decisions imminent, volatility is expected to spike. A break below wedge support could trigger a retracement toward key support zones. Be cautious of false breakouts as macro catalysts come into play. 📌 Watch the 5,545 level closely. Rejection + volume drop = high-probability short setup.
FX:SPX500Short
by Wavervanir_International_LLC
Was this the best buying opportunity since 2011?Sure, here's a rewritten version of your text in an engaging tone: "Have you ever heard of the Zweig Breadth Thrust? Well, let me tell you, it’s an incredible metric that can really shed some light on the current market situation! So, what would it take for me to believe that this bounce isn't just another bear market rally? My first step would be to dive into the breadth indicators and look for signs of that elusive breadth thrust. Think of a breadth thrust like a rocket taking off. You need a strong initial boost to break free of gravity's grip. If the thrust is weak, the rocket can’t escape, and the same applies to stock market reversals. When we see a robust breadth thrust, that's a signal that a significant reversal is underway. Without it, we could be facing another false bounce. Now, let’s talk numbers! As of Friday, April 25th, the SPX has surged an impressive 14.2% from its recent lows, and while that’s quite a leap, it’s essential to keep it in perspective. Just think back—this index was down 21.35% from its all-time high earlier in February during the panic sell-off. Now, with the recent strength, it’s only 10.75% off its peak. The Zweig Breadth Thrust is calculated based on the 10-day EMA of NYSE Advances divided by the sum of Advances and Declines. A bullish signal pops up when the ZBT shifts from below 0.40 to above 0.615 within just ten days or less. Keep an eye on that—it might just help us navigate these choppy waters!" On the monthly chart, it’s clear that what we’ve been seeing in the broader economy (you know, Main Street) is actually showing us some bearish divergence—a concept I've mentioned in my previous ideas. Since 2009, we've had four notable instances on the Monthly chart where the ZBT dipped below 0.40, only to bounce back up past the 0.6 mark. Remember back in November 2011? That was when we got a significant signal with a low reading of 0.31, which climbed back to 0.62 by February 2013. That surge sparked a bull run that peaked in February 2020! So, the takeaway here is that this breadth thrust is generating the positive momentum we need to reach new stock market highs this year. Exciting times ahead!
SP:SPXLong
by BallaJi
SPX500: Short Setup Brewing!SPX500 is currently consolidating above the key volume node at 5,480.85, showing resilience after a sharp pullback last week. Price action remains inside a rising channel, but the steeper trendline has been broken, hinting at possible loss of momentum. 🔹 Key Observations: Price is testing the lower trendline support—a breakdown here could trigger a move toward 5,400. Volume profile shows heavy interest at 5,480, with a potential volume gap below that could accelerate downside. VWAP support is intact for now, supporting a neutral-to-bullish bias. A breakout above 5,530 would confirm bullish continuation and likely test 5,560+. 📈 Bias: Neutral to Bullish 📉 Breakdown Trigger: Below 5,480 📊 Probability Estimates: Bullish breakout: 55% Bearish breakdown: 45% Watching closely for resolution at this inflection point. Patience until direction confirms. 💬 What’s your bias—bulls or bears? #SPX500 #ES1 #S&P500 #VolumeProfile #TechnicalAnalysis #FOMC #VWAP #TrendlineBreak
FX:SPX500
by Wavervanir_International_LLC
SPX500 H4 | Potential bullish bounceSPX500 could fall towards an overlap support and potentially bounce off this level to climb higher. Buy entry is at 5,546.94 which is an overlap support. Stop loss is at 5,440.00 which is a level that lies underneath an overlap support. Take profit is at 5,789.71 which is a swing-high resistance. High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Stratos Markets Limited (tradu.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd (tradu.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Global LLC (tradu.com): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Tradu (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of Tradu and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of Tradu or any form of personal or investment advice. Tradu neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is Tradu responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
TRADU:SPX500Long
by Tradu
Economy - Moving ForwardWhat's expected of the economy? For 2025, the stock market started strong, the three major U.S. indexes soared to its all-time highs, putting confidence in retail investors. End of Q1, we've seen a shift in the market due to tariffs and the start of a trade war. Why are the tariffs bad for the U.S. economy? The biggest problem with tariffs is that it could drive higher prices in consumer goods through "taxes" in imported goods. It also causes disruption in supply chain, slower economic growth, retaliation from foreign countries, etc. The economic data also shows signs of a possible recession. Not everything is lost. Asian countries such as Japan, Korea, and Indian are taking in the lead in trade talks with Donald Trump. China has given exemptions to certain U.S. goods in order to ease the trade war, leading to a potential trade talks with the economy giants, the U.S. The 90 day reciprocal tariffs are also an opening for talks. Let's see how it goes.
TVC:SPX
by Lurn
S&P 500 Rips Into Resistance- Bulls on NoticeThe S&P 500 has rallied more than 15.6% off the lows with the bull now testing confluent resistance at 5531/43 - a region defined by the 78.6% retracement of the monthly range and the April high-day close. Note that a three-point resistance slope converges on this threshold and the immediate advance may be vulnerable while below. Initial support rests with the 4/22 reversal close at 5285 - losses below this threshold would threaten another bout of selling towards the yearly low-day close (LDC) near 5061 . A topside breach / close above this hurdle exposes the monthly open at 5600 and the 61.8% retracement of the decline off the record highs at 5634 - look for a larger reaction there IF reached. Bottom line : The index is testing resistance here- losses would need to be limited to 5285 IF price is heading higher on this stretch with a close above 5434 needed to clear the way for the next leg of the advance. -MB
FOREXCOM:SPX500
by FOREXcom
US 500 Index – How Far Can the Recovery Extend?The upside recovery in the US 500 index continued last week, adding nearly 5% to close at 5523 on Friday, a 1 month high, as weak short positions continued to be squeezed out by a combination of factors, including signs that US/China trade relations may be starting to thaw out, President Trump pulling back on his initial commentary challenging Federal Reserve independence and more positive Alphabet earnings. Now, looking forward to the week ahead, traders trying to work out where the index may move next face a number of scheduled economic data updates to digest and then react to, which will provide a health check on the US economy and labour market, while also showing the impact of President Trump's tariffs on US inflation. These include, * Tuesday 1500 BST US Consumer Confidence * Wednesday 1330 BST US Preliminary Q1 GDP, * Wednesday 1500 BST US PCE Index (Fed's preferred inflation gauge) * Thursday 1500 BST ISM Manufacturing PMI Survey * Friday 1330 BST US Non-farm Payrolls Not only that, 4 of the Magnificent Seven companies also report earnings, with Microsoft and Meta results due after the close on Wednesday and Amazon and Apple due after the close on Thursday. The outcome of all these events, plus trade war/tariff updates may well determine if the rally has already run its course, or has further to go. Technical Update: Is the Break of Mid-Point (50%) Fibonacci Resistance Important? Last week was a positive one for the US 500 index, as an 8.5% rally developed from Monday’s session low at 5095 into Friday’s high at 5530. This of course comes after what was an aggressive liquidation of assets into the April lows at 4799 (April 7th), and some may now be asking if this could be a sign of further attempts at price strength. Much will of course depend on future market sentiment and price trends, but last week’s strength did see a closing break above the 5474 level, which is equal to the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the February to April 2025 price weakness. This upside move may leave traders looking at the possibilities of further attempts at price strength this week and wondering where the next resistance levels may now stand. Potential Resistance Levels: A closing break of a 50% retracement while not a guarantee of further price strength, can suggest risks to higher levels and 5635, which is the higher 62% Fibonacci retracement could be the next resistance level to monitor. If a further phase of price strength is to materialise, traders might now focus on closing defense of this 5635 resistance, with breaks higher possibly opening up potential tests of 5788, which marks the March 25th session high. Potential Support Levels: Of course, as we have said, the latest breaks of the 50% retracement resistance are not a sure sign of continued price strength. So, with that in mind, lets look at possible support levels that if broken, might point to the potential of downside pressure. The 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of last weeks rally stands at 5364, so even if the new week starts with a price setback, this level may need to be broken on a closing basis to suggest risks of further price declines. Such breaks lower could then point to a deeper decline and retracement towards 5313, the 50% level, even 5262, which is equal to the 62% retracement. The material provided here has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Whilst it is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research, we will not seek to take any advantage before providing it to our clients. Pepperstone doesn’t represent that the material provided here is accurate, current or complete, and therefore shouldn’t be relied upon as such. The information, whether from a third party or not, isn’t to be considered as a recommendation; or an offer to buy or sell; or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security, financial product or instrument; or to participate in any particular trading strategy. It does not take into account readers’ financial situation or investment objectives. We advise any readers of this content to seek their own advice. Without the approval of Pepperstone, reproduction or redistribution of this information isn’t permitted.
PEPPERSTONE:US500
by Pepperstone
S&P 500 Analysis Ahead of the Busiest Week of Earnings SeasonS&P 500 Chart Analysis Ahead of the Busiest Week of Earnings Season Despite the fact that President Trump’s earlier decision to impose tariffs (at higher rates than expected) shook the stock markets, the S&P 500 index (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen) could still end April without significant losses (currently trading less than 2% below the month’s opening level) or even achieve a positive result. According to media reports, around 180 S&P 500 companies are expected to release their quarterly earnings this week, including Apple (AAPL), Amazon (AMZN), Coca-Cola (KO), Eli Lilly (LLY), Meta (META), Microsoft (MSFT), and Chevron (CVX). The share prices of these major companies — some of the largest by market capitalisation — could have a substantial impact on the S&P 500 index chart (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen), given that their combined weight accounts for approximately a quarter of the index calculation. Technical Analysis of the S&P 500 Chart Based on the key price actions marked on the chart, we can identify a descending trend channel for the US stock market, which has been in effect since mid-February. At the same time, the price has: → moved into the upper half of this channel, reaching its upper boundary; → found support around the median line (as evidenced by the price action on 21 April). These are bullish signs, reinforced by the aggressive nature of the rebound from the psychological 5,000-point level, which acted as significant support in the first few days following the tariff announcement. Bears may still see an attractive opportunity to attempt to resume the downward momentum of the S&P 500 index (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen), but will the fundamental backdrop support such a move? From an optimistic perspective, sharp impulses driven by corporate news could lead to a breakout above the upper boundary of the red channel. This would likely be facilitated by important announcements (particularly from senior officials in the US, China, and Europe) regarding de-escalation of the tariff situation. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
FXOPEN:SPXM
by FXOpen
1
SPX500 I Bearish Drop Based on the H4 chart analysis, we can see that the price has just reacted off our sell entry at 5522,70, which is an overlap resistance. Our take profit will be at 5371.29, an overlap support level. The stop loss will be placed at 5685.38, which is an overlap resistance level. High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Stratos Markets Limited (tradu.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd (tradu.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Global LLC (tradu.com): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Tradu (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of Tradu and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of Tradu or any form of personal or investment advice. Tradu neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is Tradu responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
TRADU:SPX500Short
by Tradu
1
S&P 500: Key Levels and Potential ScenariosThis analysis of S&P500 will explore both bullish and bearish scenarios, incorporating key levels and considering possible market and crowd psychology. Bullish Scenario: Potential Uptrend Resumption From a bullish perspective, if the S&P 500 maintains a position above the 5482 level, it could suggest a potential end to the current correction and a resumption of the major uptrend. A hold above 5482 might reinforce bullish sentiment, encouraging further buying activity, as traders may view this as confirmation of renewed strength. The index could then potentially retest the 5801 level, where it's possible that the index may encounter resistance on the first attempt. A successful break above 5801 would then open the path towards the 6135 zone, which represents a key upside target. Bearish Scenario: Potential Retest of Support Zones Conversely, if the S&P 500 fails to hold above the 5482 support level might trigger increased selling pressure, as traders liquidate positions. The index could then potentially retest the 5092 to 4833 support zone. This zone represents a critical area where buyers may step in, but a break below it would signal further weakness. Concluding Remarks In conclusion, the S&P 500's price action around the identified key levels will be crucial in determining its short- to medium-term direction. A sustained hold above 5482 could favor a bullish continuation towards 5801 and potentially 6135, while a break below 5482 might lead to a retest of the 5092 to 4833 support zone.
SP:SPXLong
by AccumulationPro
S&P 500 Daily Chart Analysis For Week of April 25, 2025Technical Analysis and Outlook: In this week's trading session, the Index did steady to higher prices, distancing itself from the rendered obsolete Mean Resistance level of 5455 and targeting the next significant mark identified as Outer Index Rally 5550. This trend lays the groundwork for a continued upward movement; however, there is also a considerable risk of a sharp pullback to the Mean Support level of 5370 after reaching the Outer Index Rally at 5550. Contrariwise, it is essential to acknowledge the possibility of upward momentum continuation resulting in meeting the primary target Outer Index Rally 5550 by challenging the Mean Resistance of 5672 and extending toward additional levels: Mean Resistance 5778 and Outer Index Rally 5945.
SP:SPX
by TradeSelecter
Turbulence at Sea: A New Phase in International TradeBy Ion Jauregui – ActivTrades Analyst The growing trade tension between China and the United States has once again shaken the foundations of global commerce. In April, container traffic between the two powers fell by 30% to 40%, according to data from Maersk (CPH:MAERSKb), one of the world’s largest logistics operators. This decline comes amid a new wave of tariffs imposed by the Trump administration, which China could counter with similar measures. Although the conflict has reignited fears of a global trade slowdown, some shipping companies have maintained their annual forecasts thanks to one unexpected factor: the chaos in the Red Sea. Global Trade Under Question Maersk, despite the collapse in transpacific routes, has not revised down its profit outlook for 2025. The reason: the logistical disruption in the Red Sea, caused by geopolitical tensions, has driven up maritime freight rates, partially offsetting the drop in volume. Still, optimism is cautious. The company now expects global trade growth to range between -1% and +4%, a margin that reflects the current high level of uncertainty. Asia-Europe routes are also being affected, and many companies are already seeking alternative logistics — more expensive but safer. Impact on Other Global Companies The blow is not exclusive to Maersk. FedEx, DHL, and COSCO Shipping have also reported disruptions in their international operations. Manufacturers such as Apple, Tesla, and Boeing are facing delays and rising costs in their supply chains, particularly in key components coming from Asia. Industrial giants like Caterpillar and Honeywell, heavily reliant on exports, have seen their margins shrink and growth forecasts revised downward. The retail sector — with giants such as Nike and Walmart — is also feeling the pressure: rising logistics costs, lower momentum in international sales, and difficulties in inventory management. Market Reaction: S&P 500 and Nasdaq The effects have quickly rippled through financial markets. The S&P 500, which includes major U.S. companies, has come under pressure from geopolitical and trade uncertainty. The industrial and consumer discretionary sectors are leading the declines, while interest in more defensive sectors is growing. The Nasdaq 100, dominated by tech companies with global supply chains, is also showing signs of fatigue. Apple and Nvidia have corrected in recent sessions, driven by concerns over potential retaliation from Beijing and delays in critical components. Semiconductor companies like Qualcomm and AMD could also suffer if China restricts access to critical raw materials or imposes new trade barriers. Technical Analysis: S&P 500 The current chart formation reflects the drop that followed the imposition of tariffs, followed by a partial recovery to the 5,670-point area — slightly above the current point of control. The index is currently at the upper end of a range in which it has fluctuated several times. The RSI is slightly overbought, and the next upward target could be a return to all-time highs if it breaks the 5,900-point barrier. Moving averages appear to be converging toward a possible bullish directional shift. Outlook As 2025 progresses, investors are facing an extremely uncertain environment. The possibility of an escalation in the trade war, combined with ongoing logistical disruptions, could cap global growth and squeeze corporate earnings. All of this comes at a time when GDP growth in the U.S. and China was already showing signs of slowing: the former affected by persistent inflation, and the latter by weak domestic demand and a 21% drop in exports to the U.S. In short, international trade stands at a crossroads. If the situation does not improve in the coming months, we may witness a major restructuring of global supply chains and a shift of capital toward safer assets. ******************************************************************************************* The information provided does not constitute investment research. The material has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and such should be considered a marketing communication. All information has been prepared by ActivTrades ("AT"). The information does not contain a record of AT's prices, or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance is not reliable indicator of future performance. AT provides an execution-only service. Consequently, any person acting on the information provided does so at their own risk.
ACTIVTRADES:USA500Long
by ActivTrades
Up-a-Bar, Down-a-Bar? Sorted.Gap Higher Into 5700 Heat Ever make a tiny tweak to your bias, ignore the noise, and then watch the market validate every inch of it? That’s the vibe this morning. Yesterday’s post-FOMC tag of the lower Bollinger Band confirmed the mechanical turn, and if you’ve been following along, that means our bullish bias got an official upgrade. Futures are already up 60 points overnight, price is lifting into the 5700 zone, and yes… that broken wing butterfly we placed in the slop is now basking in the spotlight. Didn’t catch the full breakdown of that clean +98.1% ROC win? You should. Because boring trades print – and this one did just that. --- SPX Market View Let’s talk about the move we didn’t miss. We spotted the sideways chop. The indecision. The textbook “up-a-bar, down-a-bar” noise. But instead of guessing direction into FOMC chaos, we made a minor but vital adjustment: Bullish above 5600. Stay mechanical. Stay patient. That call aged well. FOMC came and went with all the urgency of a soggy biscuit. The lower Bollinger Band tag arrived right on cue, and with overnight futures up strong, we’re sitting in validation territory. Now today? 5700 becomes the zone of truth. It’s the GEX cluster. It’s the high of the week. (so far) It’s where a gap-and-go or gap-and-fade could unfold. If price breaks clean, we could see new highs forming into the weekend. If not, expect a choppy pullback from the open before things stabilise. Either way… Already in swings. Already got B&B on. No need to chase. Let the market come to us. This is why structure wins. Expert Insights: Flipping bias mid-chop – let price confirm. Don’t front-run. Forcing entries post-gap – wait for structure, not speed. Ignoring prior levels – 5700 is loaded. Watch for traps. Missing the post-review edge – yesterday’s trade gives today’s confidence. Chasing noise into FOMC hangovers – let the dust settle before committing. --- Rumour Has It… Apparently, the Fed’s post-FOMC statement was originally just a shrug emoji and the word “meh” repeated 17 times. When asked to elaborate, the AI bot in charge blinked twice and played a jazz loop. Traders remain unsure if it was dovish or just tired. This is entirely made-up satire. Probably! Breaking scoops courtesy of the Financial Nuts Newswire-because who needs sanity? --- Fun Fact In 1983, the S&P 500 posted its largest one-day post-Fed reversal at the time, rallying over 3% after a morning selloff – all while inflation was double digits and headlines screamed chaos. The takeaway? News means nothing if your setup is clean and your risk is defined. The same edge applies today.
SP:SPXLong
by MrPhilNewton
US500 - Which way will the stock market go?!The index is trading above the EMA200 and EMA50 on the four-hour timeframe and is trading in its ascending channel. If the index moves down towards the specified demand zone, one can look for further S&P buy positions with a good risk-reward ratio. In its meeting last night, the U.S. Federal Reserve decided to keep the federal funds rate steady within the 4.25% to 4.50% range. This decision comes amid growing concerns about simultaneous rises in inflation and unemployment, particularly driven by the tariff policies of the Trump administration. This marks the third consecutive time this year that the Fed has held rates unchanged, reflecting mounting economic uncertainty and fears of stagflation.Fed Chair Jerome Powell warned that the combination of high inflation, slow economic growth, and rising unemployment could lead the economy into stagflation. He noted that newly imposed tariffs could delay the disinflation process for up to a year or more. The Trump administration has introduced steep tariffs, including a 145% levy on imports from China. These measures have contributed to rising prices and slower economic growth, placing additional strain on monetary policymakers. Following the Fed’s announcement, stock markets exhibited volatility. The S&P 500 initially fell but ended the day higher. Bond yields declined, while the U.S. dollar strengthened. Powell emphasized that future monetary policy decisions will be heavily data-dependent, and the central bank stands ready to act swiftly if necessary. He acknowledged that the economic outlook remains uncertain, requiring cautious and adaptive policy management. Faced with escalating uncertainty and inflationary pressures stemming from new trade measures, the Fed has adopted a cautious stance. Given the current mixed economic indicators, the central bank is expected to maintain its interest rate policy until the economic picture becomes clearer. Economists at Goldman Sachs have issued a warning that U.S. inflation is on the rise and may reach 3.8% by the end of 2025. According to their analysis, the weakening of the U.S. dollar and the implementation of tariff policies are the main drivers of increased inflationary pressure. Additionally, changes in import demand could elevate production costs and further intensify price increases. The Wall Street Journal reported that new tariffs may raise the prices of smartphones and laptops by up to 30%. Contrary to popular belief, this inflationary impact may not be temporary and could result in sustained upward pressure on prices. Meanwhile, ahead of the FOMC meeting, Alphabet (Google’s parent company) saw its stock plunge over 8%, falling to $149.50. Eddy Cue, a senior executive at Apple, disclosed that for the first time in April, user activity on browsers and search engines had declined. In response, Apple is exploring the integration of AI-powered search into its browsers—a move that could pose a serious threat to Google’s advertising revenue. Simultaneously, President Trump announced he would not enforce the AI content restriction law, initially introduced during the Biden administration and scheduled to take effect on May 15. This decision comes just before his trip to the Middle East, where countries like Saudi Arabia and the UAE have voiced frustration over chip access restrictions. Trump administration officials are currently drafting new legislation aimed at tightening control over the export of advanced chips. This initiative may form part of a broader agreement, as the UAE has pledged to invest up to $1.4 trillion in U.S. technology and infrastructure over the next decade.
CAPITALCOM:US500Long
by Ali_PSND