USDCAD trade ideas
USDCAD Triple TopSince 2015 up to 2025, USDCAD is moving inside a range from 1.20ish to 1.5ish. Currently, we are seeing another rejection to pass 1.5 area. On the previous years after hitting the 1.5 area, the price fell back to the 1.2 area which happened 2 times. Will this repeat the pattern again and go back the 1.2 area ?
Canadian Dollar Rises Amid Tariff Concerns and Oil GainsHello,
FX:USDCAD : The Canadian dollar slightly rose against the U.S. dollar, with bond yields reaching multi-month highs, partly recovering from recent declines due to U.S. trade tariff threats. The loonie traded at 1.4405 to the U.S. dollar, recovering from a near 5-year low in December. Concerns about potential U.S. tariffs and their impact on the Bank of Canada have influenced the market. Despite strong job data in December, investor confidence in further BoC rate cuts has waned. Speculators have increased bearish bets on the Canadian dollar. Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar gained against major currencies as expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts diminished. Oil prices rose 2.9% to $78.82 per barrel due to anticipated U.S. sanctions on Russian oil. The Canadian 10-year yield increased to 3.507%, marking its highest level since July 9.
For this pair a bearish reversal is still anticipated in the near future!
No Nonsense. Just Really Good Market Insights. Leave a Boost
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Positive trade talks fuel USD recovery.🔔🔔🔔 USD/CAD news:
➡️ The USD/CAD pair rebounded from its recent losses seen in the previous session, trading around 1.3870 during Friday’s Asian session. The pair is stronger as the U.S. dollar gained traction, supported by optimism over potential U.S. trade deals. The greenback attracted some dip-buying interest after Thursday’s mild decline and found additional support from upbeat U.S. macroeconomic data.
Personal opinion:
➡️ USD is on the rebound and performing better than CAD. Therefore, the main trend for this pair is still bullish in the short term
➡️ Analysis based on resistance - support levels and trend lines combined with SMA to come up with a suitable strategy
Personal plan:
🔆Price Zone Setup:
👉Buy USD/CAD 1.3866 - 1.3850
❌SL: 1.3830 | ✅TP: 1.3920 - 1.3970
FM wishes you a successful trading day 💰💰💰
USD/CAD: After the Liquidity Sweep, the Real Move Begins ?USD/CAD (4H) – Bullish Channel in Progress :
Price swept liquidity on the weekly timeframe and is now moving within a bullish channel.
Watching for a continuation toward the resistance zone above,
⚠️ Not financial advice.
– Mr. Wolf 🐺
#USDCAD #Forex #FXTrading #PriceAction #LiquiditySweep #TechnicalAnalysis #ForexTrader #TradingView #MarketStructure #BullishMomentum
USDCAD at Risk? COT Turns Bearish📊 COT Overview – CAD & USD Futures
🇨🇦 Canadian Dollar (CAD)
Asset Managers: Still net short, but recovering fast → from -150K to nearly -50K.
Leveraged Money: Strong bullish reversal from -100K to -30K and climbing.
✅ Interpretation: Institutions are flipping bullish on CAD → Bearish pressure on USDCAD.
🇺🇸 US Dollar (USD)
Asset Managers: Cutting long exposure since March.
Leveraged Money: Losing conviction → neutral to slightly long.
⚠️ Interpretation: USD is structurally weakening → adding to the USDCAD bearish bias.
🧠 Technical Analysis
Price has returned to the key demand zone (1.3700–1.3850) for the third test.
Candles are compressing → signal of upcoming volatility.
RSI remains weak, no bullish divergence → no clear reversal yet.
📌 Key Levels:
Support: 1.3700 → A confirmed break opens space toward 1.3550–1.3480.
Resistance: 1.3950–1.4100
🎯 Trade Scenarios
🔻 Breakdown trade below 1.3700 → Target: 1.3480
🔁 Pullback short on rejection from 1.3950–1.4000 → SL above 1.4100
🔼 Long only with a bullish engulfing weekly close + RSI divergence
✅ Summary
COT Bias: Bearish USDCAD → CAD strengthening, USD weakening
Technical Structure: Support under pressure, breakout likely
Preferred Play: Short continuation on breakdown or pullback rejection
USD/CAD(20250424)Today's AnalysisMarket News:
The United States hit a 16-month low in April. The total number of new home sales in the United States in March was an annualized to a new high since September 2024.
Technical analysis:
Today's buying and selling boundaries:
1.3861
Support and resistance levels:
1.3966
1.3927
1.3901
1.3820
1.3794
1.3755
Trading strategy:
If the price breaks through 1.3901, consider buying, the first target price is 1.3927
If the price breaks through 1.3861, consider selling, the first target price is 1.3820
BUYING MOVEMENT IS TAKING PLACE ON USDCADIn this video I will be sharing my USDCAD analysis today, by providing my complete technical analysis by using candlesticks in order to have confidence over the market/control over your emotion no matter what the fundamentals are saying concerning the market, so you can watch it and improve your forex trading skill.
USDCAD Short 4/23/2025USD/CAD Short Setup – Break of Daily Demand + Textbook Triangle Unwind
This short is built off both macro fundamentals and multi-timeframe technical precision.
Daily Chart:
USD/CAD has been steadily breaking structure to the downside. Yesterday's close was significant — we broke below a major daily demand zone at 1.38221, signaling a shift in longer-term sentiment.
Today’s price action has already retested yesterday’s high into that broken zone — a classic break-and-retest setup.
4H Chart:
A clear 5-wave triangle correction is printing — text-book stuff. We’re nearing the breakout point. Price is pressing against the lower boundary, and momentum looks ready to shift.
A potential Evening Star pattern is forming right now, supported by an inside bar and a follow-up bearish hammer — a stacked reversal signal.
1H Chart:
Structure confirms the 4H — all signs point toward a correction completing and a new impulsive leg down beginning.
Fundamentals:
Later today, the U.S. Flash Manufacturing PMI is expected to show contraction — a negative for the dollar. If the data misses expectations, it could amplify the bearish move on USD/CAD.
We’re also tracking oil closely — further CAD strength via crude would accelerate the downside here.
Trade Plan:
Entry: Current area near the 1.382 retest
SL: Above triangle high
TP1: 1:1 R:R – partial take profit (75%)
TP2: Let the remaining 25% run with structure-based trailing
If the setup confirms post-PMI, this could be a strong follow-through play after a major HTF breakdown.
USDCAD Will Go Up From Support! Long!
Take a look at our analysis for USDCAD.
Time Frame: 3h
Current Trend: Bullish
Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bullish
The market is on a crucial zone of demand 1.385.
The oversold market condition in a combination with key structure gives us a relatively strong bullish signal with goal 1.396 level.
P.S
Please, note that an oversold/overbought condition can last for a long time, and therefore being oversold/overbought doesn't mean a price rally will come soon, or at all.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
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USDCAD A break of the 4hr structure would call for the following, A break of the daily that would lead us breaking the 4hr BOT. Unless Trump does the unthinkable, this will be a good swing trade to hold.
Based on the weekly, it would indicate the end of the W. counter trend and a continuation of the bullish move