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The impact of the dollar on CRYPTOCAP:BTC is visible, as soon as the dollar weakens, it often has a positive effect on the growth of bitcoin. Moments when both assets are correlated are circled below. What awaits the Dollar index? 💵 The main fall of the DXY is expected when the Fed starts to lower the rate, and then the turquoise line will begin to grow (since...

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CRYPTOCAP:BTC often follows the technology sector of the stock market. The chart clearly shows the moments when they diverge. As we can see now one of these. Also below you can see the Spearman-rank correlation, which better shows us the moments when two assets start to move in different directions.

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CRYPTOCAP:BTC / SP500 Correlation 👀 The picture of last summer is repeating itself🔁 Seasonality in Bitcoin and additional pressure on the order book from large players led to the fact that we again have a discorrelation ▲ with the stock market. 💡I think it is temporary, and soon they will converge again as it was last autumn↗️

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The stock market updates to the maximum(#ATH), Will Bitcoin do it? The recent growth of the stock market is due to strong reporting and growth of 5 companies (#NVDA #GOOGL #AMZN #META #MSFT) from the Magnificent Seven. Mostly because of the pending rate cut, the AI boom, and the influx of liquidity. 📝In general, there are enough problems in the stock market,...

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What about #Ethereum? The other day I saw an analysis that ETH could fall to $1000, is this possible? 🤔 I think - No. 📝The main arguments of the analysis were that ETFs #ETH will not be accepted. In my opinion, this is already laid out in the market, because at the polymarket, where people bet money on the probability of such an event, there is only a 7-9%...

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BTC often follows the technology sector of the stock market. Below you can see the Spearman-rank correlation, which better shows us the moments when two assets start to move in different direction What now? Now the NASDAQ is starting to slip because the market is overestimating interest rate expectations, after talks that there will be no lowering this year....

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#Bitcoin Gaussian channel 🐍 Well, halving. This was the first cycle when we reached 1.0 on the Fibonacci mark, instead of the usual 0.786. The adoption of ETFs, namely the purchase of 200,000 bitcoins by institutions, distorted the demand curve this time. What's next with Bitcoin after #halving? I expect a little calm before the storm. Most likely, we will not...

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#Bitcoin distance from Bull Market Support Band As I said all last month, the mark of 74k was our local peak, you can even tell a mid-cycle peak. 📝The geopolitical upheaval was just the last drop of what was supposed to happen. Taking into account the other earlier mentioned facts soon, I do not expect new maximums to be taken, I think it will happen in a few...

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#Gold / CRYPTOCAP:BTC (Digital Gold) correlation 🪙 Recently, we have seen a record-strong positive correlation. This is visible in the Spearman correlation, there are much more green bars in the 2-month period. Both of these assets play the role of a defensive asset🛡️ 💡Why is gold growing? The main reasons are geopolitical instability, macroeconomics, and the...

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CRYPTOCAP:BTC / SP500 Correlation #Bitcoin and the SPX mostly correlate (move similarly). It is clearly visible that most of the histogram is green except for some cases which I circled in gray areas. 📝What do we have now? Although they are now maintaining a positive correlation, the latest movement of the stock market is even stronger than that of...

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#Bitcoin Keltner Channels 📈 The current BTC cycle is often compared to the cycle of 2020 or 2016. Well, let's consider what if this cycle is different. In the first cycle, we did not have substantive and protracted corrections. The second cycle had a more pronounced mid-cycle peak, and a longer consolidation after it, and even then the 2nd wave of movement. The...

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There is not much time left for BTC to undergo a significant correction before the halving. Let me remind you that halving significantly reduces the liquidity for sale from miners ⛏️ In recent days, we have had positive inflows from BTC - ETF, which also puts pressure on the price in a positive direction. It should also be remembered that, in general, an increase...

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We continue to analyze Bitcoin using the Gaussian channel (see previous posts) 👀 📝Bitcoin is consolidating in the region of 40k, following the correction from the resistance line that I mentioned earlier. I further believe that a retest of the 37k zone is possible since there is still enough time for halving. On the wave trend oscillators, a red signal 🔴 is also...

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BTC has not had a healthy correction for about 3 months now. All this time, the price did not test the BMS or drop below 50 on the RSI. What we see now is a bearish signal of a break below 50 and a retest from below. And also a break of the trend line and a retest from below🐻 As I wrote earlier, the ETF will start to have an impact not immediately, but closer to...

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Will the adoption of #ETF be able to break the historical pattern?🤔 In each cycle of bitcoin, the price before the halving could not overcome the 0.78 Fibonacci mark, which acted as resistance. Now the price has again approached this historical resistance, which is about ~50k. 💡In my opinion, we are unlikely to break through this mark, because the fundamental...

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The volatility of the asset can be viewed relative to the width of the Bollinger lines, and it is also convenient to use the BBW oscillator for this. ✍️We have mainly 3 waves of increasing volatility before the main bull run. The first is mostly the bottom of the market, and the second or third is the midcycle peak. If one wave was quite large, the next one is...

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Let's think about what a correction would look like if the selling zone of the whales became strong resistance. In the last post, we looked at how often the BMS acts as a support, and that as soon as we move away a lot, a correction occurs. Last time at the beginning of 2023, we were only 32% away (now 40%). Larger distances from BMS were only on the 2021 bull...

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BTC Keltner Channels 🔝Bitcoin broke out of the baseline resistance, under which it consolidated for a long period. ✍️While I don't expect a return below this gray line until the peak of the cycle, remember that it is almost 2 years away and we will have more than one correction before then. 💡I expect especially volatility in the next six months when there are...