Michael_Stark_Exness

Michael_Stark_Exness

Cable remained close to three-year highs on 1 May after completing a very strong monthly performance in April. Significantly lower political instability in the UK and a generally weak US dollar amid uncertainty over tariffs both helped the pound to gain. Broadly speaking, the pound is less vulnerable to current political and trade issues than many other currencies...

Michael_Stark_Exness

Euro-dollar retreated further on 1 May in thin trading to retest $1.13. Trade wars are less in focus now with the rising possibility of deals between the USA and India, Japan and South Korea among others. Although American advance GDP for the first quarter was disappointing at negative 0.3%, the generally positive reaction by the dollar might suggest positive...

Michael_Stark_Exness

The latest British job report on 15 April was generally quite positive with growth in earnings remaining high and claimants increasing less than expected. The focus for the yen remains on upcoming trade talks between Japan and the USA while monetary policy still seems somewhat uncertain. The Bank of Japan is likely to continue with ‘wait and see’ although some...

Michael_Stark_Exness

As of 16 April cable was on track to complete its longest unbroken round of gains in nearly a year, having risen to seven-month highs. The outlook for rates doesn’t obviously favour either currency, with both the Fed and the Bank of England expected to cut at least twice more this year and possibly three or four times. Recent lower confidence in the dollar amid...

Michael_Stark_Exness

Some participants in stock markets had hoped for negotiations to make some progress in the first week of April and at least some countries to be exempted quickly from the latest round of tariffs. However, now it’s a full-scale trade war: China in particular, under 104% tariffs, is very unlikely to back down. The main uncertainty for markets now is less how major...

Michael_Stark_Exness

Since the announcement of higher than expected new American tariffs, especially on China, oil’s decline has been dramatic. The very high tariffs on China are important because China is the largest importer of oil, so economic headwinds there usually have a significant effect on demand. OPEC+ decided last week to increase supply next month. 4 April was American...

Michael_Stark_Exness

Cable reached six-month intraday highs even above $1.32 on 3 April after the American government announced sweeping new tariffs and panicked many investors and traders. Now, though, most of these have been reversed after an unusually better than expected job report from the USA. Politically, sterling seems to be among the less vulnerable currencies now since the...

Michael_Stark_Exness

Gold posted its first weekly loss in a month on 4 April as the American job report came in much stronger than expected amid the backdrop of general fear in markets after the start of the new phase of the trade war. Usually the yellow metal has a degree of inverse correlation with major indices, but in the current situation of an ongoing crash for the S&P 500 and...

Michael_Stark_Exness

Havens generally had a significant boost from Donald Trump’s latest announcement of sweeping new tariffs, with the yen in particular showing strong overall gains in most of its pairs. Flight to safety has been the primary driver for the yen in the last couple of days. The yen’s expected higher yield later this year could now be questioned because the impact of...

Michael_Stark_Exness

With new tariffs likely to have a significant negative impact on the American economy, the euro made strong gains against the dollar in the aftermath of the announcement. Against these, inflation in the eurozone cooled to 2.2% according to the flash release for March. The consensus is for a total cut of 0.65% by the ECB for the rest of 2025, which in itself is a...

Michael_Stark_Exness

Euro-dollar’s strong uptrend has continued in the last few days amid general weakness from the dollar and a generally negative reaction to inconsistent messaging on tariffs. Lower American inflation reduces the pressure on the Fed to keep rates high while recent comments from the ECB’s Executive Board seem to reduce the probability of immediate further cuts. As...

Michael_Stark_Exness

Gold has held close to record highs since last week as geopolitical risks remain high. The latest American tariffs on steel and aluminium – including from friendly nations and blocs like the EU and Britain – were met with an announcement that 2018 European tariffs on American products would resume from 1 April. Uncertainty over trade wars is extremely high as both...

Michael_Stark_Exness

7 March’s NFP was an important catalyst for euro-dollar to move up more even though it generally wasn’t much weaker than expected. It must be stressed that the last few days have been truly exceptional: EURUSD is on track for its best weekly performance in around 16 years. Recent news of increased spending on defence and revised limits on national debt in the...

Michael_Stark_Exness

In the context of trade wars and particularly direct rhetoric between the USA and China, ‘risk off’ remains clear across most markets, which works in gold’s favour. 7 March’s NFP wasn’t very significantly weaker than the consensus but in the overall context of sentiment seems to have given gold and major currencies a boost against the dollar. A fairly large...

Michael_Stark_Exness

Cable has massively outperformed in recent days due to a range of different factors. Probably the most important of these has been less dovish expectations for the Bank of England this year after various members of the Monetary Policy Committee highlighted risks of higher inflation due to relatively strong earning and job data. Sentiment also received a boost from...

Michael_Stark_Exness

The yen has generally continued to perform well in recent days as participants continue to focus on probable further tightening by the Bank of Japan this year as the outlook for rates in the USA has become somewhat more dovish. Although unemployment rose slightly in Japan to 2.5% last month, the job market there is overall quite strong while Japanese annual...

Michael_Stark_Exness

Despite mostly positive data from the UK recently considering the circumstances, the yen remains relatively strong against the pound compared to much of the last quarter. Demand for havens is still high as trade wars between the USA and various other countries continue while participants widely expect the Bank of Japan to continue hiking rates moderately this...

Michael_Stark_Exness

The pound has generally done better against the dollar since around the middle of last month amid moderately strong data from the UK considering the circumstances. Inflation, preliminary GDP and average earnings have all beaten expectations at least slightly this month. Meanwhile the dollar’s long uptrend against various currencies has mostly paused for breath in...