ashfaq.hussain.duggal

ashfaq.hussain.duggal

A fairly good size of correction may be under way for EURGBP after the pair has taken out .8787 resistance area and trend line is broken. We expect a reasonable correction as the pair failed to move higher twice. Taking short would be nice idea for a short time span. NOTE : Keep the Trade size small as we mention it to be a corrective move. A long term...

ashfaq.hussain.duggal

Negative RSI divergence is hinting a possible deeper correction for SPX500 -0.05% . SPX500 -0.05% vulnerable for a deeper correction. Yen will gain like rocket if SPX500 -0.05% sell-off occurs. We should be cautious going long on risk geared currencies like AUD OR NZD in such conditions.Moody's downgrade on chines is another development in same direction. OPEC...

ashfaq.hussain.duggal

NZDUSD sell-off halted near 6890 level. Current move up is majorly due to US$ weakness. A perfect long trade setup has emerged but Fundamental risk event is looming ahead as RBNZ meets less than 48 hours. RBNZ maintained a dovish tone in 1st meeting for the year and NZD$ been on a roller coaster ride. We will remain sideline and wait for another opportunity to...

ashfaq.hussain.duggal

We sold brent from 56.50 and has closed the position last week as price bounced from an year long trend line, circled blue. Recent OPEC cut pledges in second half of the year may give some confidence to buyers. Two long wicks on 14th of march and 20th march, yestreday, put on the case for a retest of 55.00 level. A daily close above 52.39 will stamp the idea....

ashfaq.hussain.duggal

We expected a corrective move on NIKKIE, the Japanese benchmark stocks index. As we mentioned previously we will remain bullish above 19000 area. On the other hand a bearish bais on a daily close below 19014. Price action in recent 5 days has been fairly corrective. Please bear in mind the NIKKEI AND YEN maintain a -ve co-relation much of the time. After...

ashfaq.hussain.duggal

As we mentioned in our previous note that dollar may not be able clear 115.10 area. After having a series of central banks decisions, Markets are posing toward Risk-On mode now. AUS, Kiwi along with stocks welcomed Fed's softer tone. Fed remain dovish with respect to market expectations and turned down the hast for raising rates. On the other hand Boj...

ashfaq.hussain.duggal

As all the major risk events of week are over. Aussie has gained most against US$ with respect to other currencies. We expect the risk geared currency to gain further. On the other hand Boj keep policy unchanged as widely expected by market. AUDJPY pair has maintained the nice up-trend in the wake of major risk events. A daily close above 87.38 has put the...

ashfaq.hussain.duggal

We noted that AUDNZD is in inverse H&S pattern a few days back. The pair has moved as we anticipated and current move is confirmed by RSI as well. We will wait a bit more for this sharp upward move to correct and produce a LONG opportunity. We hope that it would be really good setup with respect to big yields as RBA and RBNZ rhetoric is widening the...

ashfaq.hussain.duggal

Japanese Nikkei-225 has made a wedge structure after year long downtrend broken in november 2016. Currently, If we look at equities asset classes, NIKKEI along with SPX500, DOW, DAX, FTSE all are vulnerable to a correction. Recent Oil sharp decline has cemented the case further. Technically nikkei is consolidating in 600 pips range since last three months...

ashfaq.hussain.duggal

Dollar had a longest winning streak in an year's time against yen. Looking both at fundamentals and Technicals pair is in corrective structure since Jan 2017. We believe that US$ will break upwards unless real risk aversion mode prevails market. Such an event is right on the tap, none other but US Non-farm payrolls report, tomorrow. If we look at Jan 2017...

ashfaq.hussain.duggal

Euro has put the biggest 2 days gains on march 2nd and third, against Aussie. If we look at the price action. Since 2015 Euro makes abrupt upward move against aussie while the trend remains downward. Such a structure is against the underlying fundamentals. Such sharp moves cannot sustain them for longer periods and trading these can be riskier as well. Recently...

ashfaq.hussain.duggal

As the real brexit is imminent. And market conditions are prompting for risk aversion to be kicked in. We entered short on GBPJPY @140.57, position is inching toward first target. An opening gap on monday signals an upcoming shake. 1- Brexit in next few days 2- FED rate hike bets on more than 50%. 3- North Korea missile adventure ignite the situation further...

ashfaq.hussain.duggal

Sterling falling towards brexit lows. Immediate support is at 1.2080, a weak one. If PM Theresa May generates more uncertainty prior to triggering article 50 officially. Sterling may go further lower. US$ will capitalize further in the wake of rate hike bets next week. A steady job market If produces even a moderate NFP report on friday, It will cement the...

ashfaq.hussain.duggal

Looking back @ Macro Levels:- Assies remained on a rollercoaster ride against its kiwi counterpart since 2011. Following later pair remained sideways since 2014 (consolidation phase), although in a fair enough trading range of a 1000 pips between 1.1300 - 1.0275. Fast Forward :- Recently, since Nov 2016 (as trump-nomics starts) pair was in triangle/wedge...

ashfaq.hussain.duggal

We enter short on EUR/GBP @.8510 with initial target of .8431 which hit this morning asia session. Half of the position is closed and stop-Loss move to break-even, rest half of the position is open to take the advantage of Expected H&S setup yield. We were expecting Euro weakness in-line to fundamentals, mentioned in our EURUSD article as well.

ashfaq.hussain.duggal

Since ECB has started its stimulus ,early last year, to counter the deflation. Euro has rallied multiple times against the fundamentals, circled in chart. Generally due to market mode, where Risk-off mode hit the market heavily. But market always has to correct it-self in the direction of underlying fundamentals. So it happened, Big Brothers who had been...

ashfaq.hussain.duggal

Most important thing for a forex trader is to find out whether current price action is a trend OR correction. A trader may use momentum indicator or read candlesticks to gauge the momentum. Taking trades in the direction of prevailing bigger trends is always a good idea. Using any of the methods a trader might be scratching his head when applying on OIL effected...

ashfaq.hussain.duggal

EUR was correcting higher since the start of 2017 but pair could not clear 1.0810. Rejected from Support turned resistance, Highlighted in black this area remained support for EUR rally in 2016 when EUR was opted as Safe Heaven currency by traders. Once US Elections past, Dollar bulls are back and would love to pair US dollar against relatively weaker currencies...