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USDJPY rallies on BOJ's "dovish hike": Is 158.00 next target?USDJPY is surging past 156.00 despite the BOJ raising rates to 0.75%, the highest level since 1995. This classic "buy the rumour, sell the fact" reaction is fuelled by Governor Ueda's cautious guidance, signalling no rush for further hikes. A lack of commitment to a neutral rate path has kept the carry trade alive. Key drivers "Dovish hike" Reaction : The BOJ raised rates to 0.75% as priced in, but Governor Ueda emphasized a "data-dependent" approach with "no pre-set path," disappointing hawks hoping for a rapid tightening cycle. ​ Neutral rate uncertainty : Ueda admitted it's "challenging to pinpoint" the neutral rate and wants to observe the economy's reaction first, implying a pause that leaves the wide yield gap with the US (3.5%+) intact. ​ Technical breakout : USD/JPY has cleared the 156.00 resistance zone, confirming a bullish flag breakout on the daily chart. RSI resetting near 50 supports further upside potential.​ Key targets : Immediate focus is on the swing high at 157.00, followed by the 2025 peak at 157.93 and the 138.2% Fibonacci extension at 158.77.​ Trade plan : Bias is bullish above 156.00. Look to buy pullbacks into the 156.00–156.20 support zone, targeting 157.00+; invalidation below 155.00.​ Are you buying the BOJ breakout? Share your USD/JPY targets in the comments and follow for more central bank and technical trade setups. This content is not directed to residents of the EU or UK. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. ThinkMarkets will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
Long
by ThinkMarkets
S&P 500 "tech wreck": Double top breakdown targets 6,500?The S&P 500 has sliced through its 50-day moving average and paused by 50% Fibonacci retracement following a fourth straight day of losses. With a confirmed double top at 6,930 and momentum shifting bearish, we’re eyeing a move back to the range lows at 6,500. In this video, we break down the impact of the "tech wreck" and Fed Governor Waller’s mixed signals on 2026 rate cuts, which have triggered a risk-off sentiment. Then, we outline a short setup selling the bounce into 6,765–6,800, targeting the November 21 lows. Key drivers Technical Breakdown : The index has broken below its 50-day moving average and the 50% Fibonacci retracement (6,725), confirming bearish momentum from a double top structure.​ "Tech Wreck" & Macro : High-value tech stocks and crypto sold off sharply yesterday, exacerbated by Fed Governor Waller’s caution on "hurrying up" rate cuts despite inflation risks.​ Range Structure : The S&P 500 is trading within a rectangular range between ~6,930 (highs) and 6,500–6,520 (lows). We are currently in the middle of this range with a downside bias.​ Short Setup : We are looking to sell a retracement to the 38.2% Fib / prior low (~6,765–6,800) rather than chasing the breakdown due to the 4-hour RSI shift. Trade Plan : Entry around 6,765, stop loss above 6,830 (23.6% Fib), targets at 6,600 and ultimately 6,500. Risk/reward is favourable at 1.7+.​ Are you selling the tech sell-off or waiting for support? Share your levels in the comments and follow for more technical swing setups. This content is not directed to residents of the EU or UK. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. ThinkMarkets will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
THINKMARKETS:SPX500Short
by ThinkMarkets
WTI drops near 2025 lows amid Ukraine-Russia deal, can $55 hold?WTI crude oil has declined near fresh 2025 lows around $56.60 as optimism over a Russia-Ukraine peace deal collides with fears of global oversupply. With NFP and central bank decisions looming, the market is bracing for a volatile test of the critical $55 support. In this video, we analyse the bearish pressure from potential sanctions relief on Russian oil and persistent market surpluses, weighed against the bullish risks of escalating US-Venezuela tensions. We then map out the technical path to $55 and lower if fractals work out and the conditions for a potential bounce back toward $60. Key drivers Bearish catalyst : Progress in US-backed Russia-Ukraine peace talks is fuelling expectations of supply normalisation, pushing prices down amid a market already facing a surplus through 2026.​ Bullish risks : Escalating tensions between the US and Venezuela, including tanker seizures, threaten to disrupt roughly 1 million barrels per day of supply, potentially offsetting bearish sentiment.​ A packed week featuring the NFP report and rate decisions from the BOE, ECB, and BOJ will drive dollar volatility, directly impacting crude prices.​ WTI remains at risk below $59-60. The primary downside target is the structural support at $55, with a break opening the door to $50. Resistance stands at $58.50 and $60.00.​ Trade Plan : Bearish bias targets a test of $55.00 as long as price holds below $58.50. Watch for a reversal signal at $55 or a reclaim of $60 on supply disruption news.​ Trading the oil crash? Share your thoughts on the $55 support level in the comments and follow for more commodity and macro trade setups. This content is not directed to residents of the EU or UK. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. ThinkMarkets will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
THINKMARKETS:WTIShort
by ThinkMarkets
1
EURUSD breaks higher: Fed-ECB path to drive 3rd wave to 1.19?EURUSD is trading above 1.17 on the 4-hour chart after the dollar fell to a 2-month low following Wednesday's Fed rate cut. With a potential running triangle breakout in play and a dovish Fed facing a stable ECB, the pair is eyeing the 2025 high at 1.1920 and potentially new peaks into 2026. In this video, we break down why Powell's dovish tone and a deeply divided Fed are narrowing the rate differential with the ECB, which might upgrade growth and proceed with no cuts in 2026. Then, we map out the wave structure: a potential 3rd wave impulse targeting 1.18–1.19, with buy-the-dip zones at 1.17 and 1.1650, and larger projections toward 1.2020–1.2220 from a cup-and-handle pattern. Key drivers Fed cut and Powell dovish: The Fed cut rates on Wednesday, where Powell emphasised a "wait-and-see" mode, pretty much ruling out hikes in 2026; markets now price two more cuts despite the official dot plot projecting only one.​​ Deeply divided Fed: The December dot plot showed four members see no cuts in 2026, four see one, four see two, and three expect rates below 3% by year-end 2026, while three actually wanted to hike — No consensus.​ ECB stability and growth upgrade: ECB President Lagarde said the eurozone economy shows "remarkable strength" and the ECB may upgrade growth forecasts at the December 18th meeting, with policy in a "good position" (i.e., no cuts).​ Rate differential narrowing: The Fed is at 3.50–3.75% and cutting, the ECB is at 2.00% and on hold. Markets now price only a 45% chance of an ECB cut by September 2026, narrowing the spread in favour of the euro.​ Technical structure : EURUSD has broken out of a running triangle with a breakout level around 1.1580–1.1600. The current leg appears to be a third-wave impulse targeting 1.18–1.19, with a larger cup-and-handle projection pointing to 1.2020–1.2220. Trade plan : Buy pullbacks into 1.17 (50% Fibonacci retracement) or 1.1650 (deeper support) with a stop below 1.1580, targeting 1.18, 1.19, and potentially 1.20+; invalidation below 1.1580 would suggest a corrective structure instead. Trading the EURUSD breakout? Share your entry levels and wave counts in the comments and follow for more Fed-ECB divergence and technical trade setups. This content is not directed to residents of the EU or UK. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. ThinkMarkets will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
Long
by ThinkMarkets
1
EURJPY breakout: Buying dips into BOJ last hike?EURJPY has broken out of a triangle consolidation on the 4-hour chart and is retesting the 182 level as support. With Japan pumping fiscal stimulus into a shrinking economy and the BOJ nearing its cycle peak, the macro setup favours buying dips for a continuation higher. In this video, we break down why the yen remains weak despite rising yields and an imminent BOJ hike, focusing on the toxic mix of fiscal slippage and soft growth. Then, we map out the technical buy zone between 181.60 and 180.70, targeting a final fifth-wave push toward 183.40 and 185.00. Key drivers Japan macro: A massive ¥21.3 trillion stimulus package into a contracting economy (Q3 GDP -2.3% annualised) has spiked yields on debt concerns rather than growth, weighing on the yen.​ Central bank divergence: The BOJ is expected to hike next week but signal it's near the terminal rate ("one-and-done"), while the ECB holds at 2%.​ Technical structure: We are in a continuation pattern (triangle breakout) that likely marks wave 4 of a larger sequence, implying one last impulse leg higher.​ Key levels: Support at 181.60 (161.8% extension of the internal wave) and 180.70 (structural pivot). Upside targets at 183.40 (138.2% extension) and 184.29–185.00 (161.8% extension).​ Trade plan: Look to buy dips into the 181.60–180.70 zone with a stop below the previous low, taking partial profits at 183.40 and 184.29, and trailing the rest for a potential extension.​ Trading the yen cross breakout? Share your entry levels in the comments and follow for more macro-to-technical trade setups. This content is not directed to residents of the EU or UK. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. ThinkMarkets will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
Long
by ThinkMarkets
1
USDCAD plunges as BOC vs Fed divergence grows! Can it continue?USDCAD has broken sharply lower following Canada's surprise jobs blowout on Friday, with the pair now pricing in a divergence: the Bank of Canada is expected to hold rates Wednesday, while the Fed is expected to cut. Canada added 54,000 jobs in November, and the unemployment rate plunged to 6.5%, taking a BOC cut off the table. Meanwhile, the Fed is 90% priced to cut by 25bps on Wednesday, narrowing the rate differential and weakening the US dollar against the loonie. Key drivers Canada jobs report beat expectations with +54k positions (vs expected loss), unemployment fell to 6.5% from 6.9% — three straight months of gains totalling 181k jobs.​ BOC decision this week virtually certain to hold at 2.25% after cutting in October and signalling the easing cycle is likely over.​ Fed FOMC decision on Wednesday priced in at 90% odds for a 25bps cut to 3.75–4%, the third consecutive cut driven by cooling US labour and dovish Fed commentary.​ Technical: USDCAD corrected to 50% Fibonacci (1.4140–60) of the 1.4790–1.3543 impulse leg and is now breaking down in a potential head and shoulders pattern with neckline at 1.3543. Downside targets: 1.3370–1.3396 (61.8% extension + 50% retracement confluence), 1.3068 (61.8% retracement), and 1.2895 (100% extension full measured move). Risk scenario: Neckline hold above 1.3543 could see bounce back toward 1.36 or 1.43, but below 1.4140, the path of least resistance is lower. Are you trading the USDCAD breakdown? Share your head and shoulders setups in the comments and follow for more central bank divergence and technical trade ideas. This content is not directed to residents of the EU or UK. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. ThinkMarkets will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
Short
by ThinkMarkets
1
BTC reality check! Flat wave C & Oct 26 bottomWe’re back on BTC to drill into my alternate Elliott Wave count and the cyclical roadmap. Cycle work pointed to an October top, which we’ve seen. I remain long-term bullish, but near term I still see a flat correction in play, with wave C unfolding. Drivers Elliott Wave structure The larger uptrend remains intact, but the current phase looks corrective as a flat: wave A as a flat, wave B irregular, and wave C unfolding in five subwaves. Near term, price action looks like we’re in or finishing wave 4 of C. By alternation, with wave 2 having been deep (around the 61.8% area), wave 4 often resolves shallower (around the 38.2% area). If it stretches closer to 50% and compresses, a triangle into a final wave 5 is plausible before completion of C. If C remains overlapping and wedge-like, an ending diagonal scenario keeps downside limited. If instead the decline is impulsive, this drop could be only wave 1 of a larger 5-wave move lower. Momentum-wise, higher-timeframe RSI shows divergence, consistent with a late-stage correction. Cyclical framework Bitcoin’s recurring rhythm has often mirrored halving cycles: a bear phase roughly around a year, followed by multi-year bull advances. Symmetry between bottom→halving and halving→top continues to be informative. With the next halving due in 2028, the cycle window I’m monitoring points to a potential bottom window around Q4 2026 (often cited around October). This video focuses less on a single trade and more on the timing roadmap: when the corrective structure might complete and when to consider re-engaging for the longer term. Key zones to watch If an ending diagonal plays out, a termination near the high-60Ks (around 69k area) would be consistent with “limited downside.” A more dramatic impulse path could open a wider “magnetic zone” of support roughly spanning the low-70Ks down toward the 50Ks, with deeper stretch risks if the impulse extends. Confirmation will depend on how wave 4 resolves and whether the next leg proves corrective (ED) or impulsive. Trade idea My base lens is structure-first, timing-second. If wave C finishes as an ending diagonal, downside should be limited in the high-60Ks and setting up a bullish continuation in 2026. If instead the drop proves impulsive (5 down), treat bounces (0.5–0.618 retraces) as opportunities to reassess shorts, with a support “magnet” spanning roughly low-70Ks to low-50Ks, and deeper risk if momentum accelerates. Validation hinges on how wave 4 resolves and whether the final leg is overlapping (ED) or cleanly impulsive. If you want my annotated charts and live invalidation levels, drop a comment. Like and subscribe to catch the mid‑week follow‑up when wave 4/5 signals firm up. This content is not directed to residents of the EU or UK. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. ThinkMarkets will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
THINKMARKETS:BTCUSDShort
by ThinkMarkets
3
Kiwi in 5th wave, then buy-the-dip?Kiwi looks to have put in a provisional bottom around 0.5570 and is grinding higher toward the 0.58 handle, a key resistance zone that could either cap this fifth wave or unlock further upside. In this video, we look at how a weaker US dollar and a slightly more hawkish RBNZ are supporting NZD/USD, and why 0.58 is such an important decision point. We then map out the buy‑the‑dip zone for a potential continuation higher and the levels that would flip the script to shorts. Key drivers RBNZ recently cut by 25 bps but signalled the easing cycle is likely over, while new governor Anna Breman is perceived as relatively hawkish and focused on inflation, which helps underpin the Kiwi.​ Fed December cut odds around 85–90% after a run of softer US data keep the dollar under pressure, providing a tailwind for NZDUSD on rallies and pullbacks.​ On the 4‑hour chart, price is pushing up toward 0.58 with emerging RSI divergence, suggesting this move is likely a fifth wave into resistance and setting up a corrective pullback rather than an immediate trend reversal.​ Primary idea : Look to buy the dip if price reacts lower from 0.58 into the 0.5690–0.5660 zone (between the 38.2% and 61.8% Fib of the latest leg and prior support), targeting 0.5910, 0.60 and potentially 0.61, while a break below ~0.5640 and the channel base would instead open the door to deeper downside and short opportunities.​ Trading Kiwi here? Share how you’re planning to trade the 0.58 resistance and buy‑the‑dip zone in the comments, and follow for more macro‑plus‑technicals swing setups. This content is not directed to residents of the EU or UK. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. ThinkMarkets will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
BITMEX:BRBNT30MLong
by ThinkMarkets
GBPUSD wave 2 pullback? Buy the dip or sell the Rachel rally?Sterling surged over 1% last week on UK budget relief, the so-called "Rachel Rally", but profit-taking kicked in at resistance. With both the BOE and Fed now 90% expected to cut in December, the dollar is under more pressure, making Cable pullbacks attractive buying opportunities. Key drivers: "Rachel Rally" profit-taking after Sterling's best week since August led to double top at 1.3275 resistance. BOE December rate cut priced at 90%, creating short-term headwinds. Fed December cut odds surged to ~90% after ISM Manufacturing fell to 48.2, the ninth straight month of contraction, keeping dollar weak. Both central banks are cutting, but USD is under more pressure right now, supporting GBPUSD on pullbacks. Wave structure : Five-wave leg complete from 1.30 low, now in Wave 2 correction. Key support zone between 38.2% and 61.8% Fibonacci (around 1.3150–1.3130). If this holds, buying the dip for Wave 3 of Wave 3 (or Wave 3 of C) targeting 1.3275, then 1.3315 and higher. Alternative : Losing 1.31 increases risk of continuation lower toward previous low and potentially 1.2847. Looking to buy the GBPUSD dip? Share your Wave 2 entries in the comments and follow for more macro-plus-technicals trade ideas. This content is not directed to residents of the EU or UK. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. ThinkMarkets will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
Long
by ThinkMarkets
Google at record highs but Wave 3 cluster/RSI screams pullback!Alphabet is leading the Magnificent Seven, hitting record highs near $330, while most AI and growth stocks, including Nvidia, have stalled. Since launching Gemini 3 in mid-November and with news of a $4.9 billion Berkshire stake, Alphabet has rallied more than 135% off its April low, outperforming all Big Tech peers in 2025. But Alphabet is at the 161.8% Fibonacci extension of its long-term move and long-to-medium-term move, which matches a textbook Elliott Wave 3 cluster completion. RSI is at an extreme 83 on the weekly, hinting a Wave 4 pullback to $288 could be next, even as the macro backdrop (Gemini 3 AI buzz, Fed rate cut hopes, and demand for Google’s AI chips from Meta) stays strong. Ultimately, a final Wave 5 could extend up to $380-$400. Key drivers: Gemini 3 launch positions Alphabet as an AI leader, topping major multimodal benchmarks. $4.9B Berkshire stake signals major institutional confidence. Meta seeks Google’s TPU chips, boosting Alphabet’s AI hardware story while pressuring Nvidia. Fed rate cut odds above 80% further support growth stocks. Elliott Wave/technical structure aligns with a potential $288 pullback before any push to $380. Will Alphabet finally pause after eight explosive months, or does the rally have further to run? Let us know your view and Elliott Wave count in the comments, and follow for more big-picture, technical-plus-macro trade ideas! This content is not directed to residents of the EU or UK. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. ThinkMarkets will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
NASDAQ:GOOGLShort
by ThinkMarkets
2
FTSE100 post-Budget rally: Inverse Head & Shoulders eyes 9800Chancellor Reeves unveiled tax rises worth £26 billion annually by 2029-30 but showed fiscal discipline by committing to reduce government spending as a share of GDP each year and more than doubling the fiscal headroom buffer to £21.7 billion, reassuring bond markets still scarred by the Liz Truss mini-budget crisis. With gilt yields falling, sterling at its best level since October, and a Bank of England rate cut expected in December, the macro backdrop supports further upside for Footsie, though sticky inflation and OBR growth downgrades remain headwinds. Key drivers: UK Budget introduces tax rises totalling £26bn annually by 2029-30 via threshold freezes, mansion tax, and dividend levies, but spending will decline as a share of GDP each year, calming government borrowing concerns and sending gilt yields lower. Fiscal headroom buffer more than doubled to £21.7bn (from £9.9bn last year), giving bond vigilantes confidence that the debt trajectory is sustainable. Sterling rallied above 1.32 towards 1.33 on lower borrowing risks, while FTSE 100 gained, led by financials. Bank of England expected to cut rates 25bp in December, supporting equities, though sticky inflation and OBR growth downgrades are headwinds. Technical setup : inverse head and shoulders with neckline/support at 9,630 (38.2% Fib), measured move and Fib confluence target 9,800 (between 61.8% and 78.6% retracement). Trade idea : Entry on pullback to 38.2% Fib (9,630), stop below previous low (9,434), target 9,800, for 2:1+ risk-to-reward. Trading the FTSE bounce? Drop your setups in the comments and follow for more high-action technical and macro trade ideas. This content is not directed to residents of the EU or UK. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. ThinkMarkets will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
THINKMARKETS:UK100Long
by ThinkMarkets
Gold breakout incoming? Triangle in focus as Fed cut bets rise!Gold has snapped back above the $4.1k handle and is coiling in a triangle just under resistance as markets go almost all‑in on a December Fed rate cut.​ In this video, we look at how dovish shifts from Fed officials and surging rate‑cut odds are lifting gold while price action compresses between the 4k support and the 4,240–4,245 resistance band. We then map out both bullish and bearish scenarios using the 4,100 handle as the key line in the sand. Key drivers Markets now price roughly 80% odds of a December Fed cut after comments from Christopher Waller and Mary Daly backing a move on the basis of a weakening labour market.​ Lower expected policy rates and a softer dollar reduce the opportunity cost of holding gold, helping XAUUSD hold above 4,100 even as risk appetite improves elsewhere.​ On the 1‑hour chart, gold is locked in a contracting triangle/pennant with higher lows and lower highs, overbought RSI cooling off, and 4,100 acting as potential support. A sustained break above roughly 4,175–4,200 opens the door towards 4,240–4,275, while a failure and loss of 4,100 puts 4,000 back in play and risks a deeper extension towards the 3,750 zone. If you’re trading gold, share your triangle scenarios in the comments. Are you buying a 4,100 hold or fading a failed breakout? Make sure to follow for more macro‑plus‑technicals trade setups. This content is not directed to residents of the EU or UK. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. ThinkMarkets will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
THINKMARKETS:XAUUSDLong
by ThinkMarkets
1
S&P500 crashes! Due relief rally or further pain?Nvidia delivered impressive earnings, but the stock reversed and closed nearly 3% lower, triggering heavy selling across tech and risk assets as odds for a December rate cut have collapsed to just 34%, with policy uncertainty amplified by the cancelled October NFP report. Despite a strong market and rising unemployment in September's NFP report, traders remained defensive and fuelled the declines. Key drivers: Nvidia beat earnings, but post-report selling intensified sector losses. The Fed’s odds for a December rate cut have dropped to 34%, amplifying caution. The abrupt cancellation of the October NFP means the market lacks fresh labour data, fuelling defensive positioning. S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Bitcoin broke major supports, confirming risk-off conditions. Right now, the S&P 500 has broken below channel support near 6,600 and failed to climb back in. If prices stay below this threshold, expect another sharp move lower targeting 6,500 and possibly 6,350. There’s potential for upside, given momentum divergence on the RSI 4-hour chart. If we see a short-term bounce and a return to the channel, a move toward 6,682 is possible, which sets up a tactical short opportunity. Trade idea: Entry: Midpoint of 23.6/38.2 Fibonacci (6,655–6,682 area) Stop-loss: Above 61.8% Fib (6,775) Take Profits: TP1 6,500 (recent low/support), TP2 6,440 (major support), TP3 trail stop to 6,170 (long-term support) Risk-off drivers are in control. Earnings reversals, Fed uncertainty, and cancelled NFP data are fuelling this price action. Technically, it comes down to whether we see a return inside the channel for a relief bounce or a sharp continuation downward. Watch your levels, remain nimble, and let fundamentals and technicals, not emotions, guide your trade. Let me know your setups in the comments, and follow for more high-action technical and macro trade ideas. This content is not directed to residents of the EU or UK. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. ThinkMarkets will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
THINKMARKETS:SPX500Short
by ThinkMarkets
1
'Sell Japan' trade opens door to 160 USDJPY on fiscal concernsUSDJPY has ripped through 157 with RSI pushing near extreme overbought, and the pair is now magnetised towards a key Fibonacci and prior-high cluster around 158.70–159.​ In this video, I break down how the FOMC minutes maintained the recent status quo from the Fed, while blockbuster Nvidia earnings and Japan’s significant new stimulus package have combined to drive the latest leg of the USD/JPY rally.​ On the chart, the focus is a completed triangle breakout above 155 and an upside trajectory toward 158.70, 160 and potentially the 162 high reached in 2024.​ Key drivers Fed minutes offer no signals that policymakers should cut in December, keeping US yields and the dollar supported.​ Nvidia’s earnings beat and guidance have boosted risk appetite and underpinned broad USD strength.​ Japan is finalising a ¥17–21 trillion stimulus package, stoking fiscal concerns and encouraging a “sell Japan” trade that weakens the yen.​ USDJPY has broken out our prior target of 155 from a triangle pattern, with Fibonacci projections and prior highs aligning around 158.70–159, then 160–162.​ If you find this USDJPY roadmap useful, drop your trade levels in the comments and follow for more Fibonacci-based, fundamentals-plus-technical setups in real time. This content is not directed to residents of the EU or UK. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. ThinkMarkets will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
Long
by ThinkMarkets
USDJPY breakout: Can the rally extend toward 155?The dollar-yen pair smashed through 150 with one of the strongest breakouts recently, confirming a new technical phase as it trades above the 61.8% Fib retracement. Here’s what’s fuelling the move and what traders should watch next: Dollar strength returned as safe haven flows dominate, even with a US government shutdown, while Japan’s new prime minister’s dovish signals are sending the yen into freefall. Key drivers Safe haven flows : Investors seek shelter in the dollar as global uncertainty rises; DXY index hit a 6-week high. Yield differentials : The Fed/BOJ spread powers further carry trade buying as Japanese rates remain ultra-low. Japanese political shift : PM Takaichi’s win spurs fiscal stimulus and pushes back market hopes for BOJ tightening, deepening yen weakness. Technical breakout : Clean break above multi-year resistance and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement; watch for support validation and continuation toward the next 78.6% Fib at 154.80. What to watch Holding above 150 and 61.8% Fib support sets the stage for a bullish continuation. Profit taking is possible near 153.25–154.80, as RSI shows signs of overbought. Tonight’s FOMC minutes, Thursday’s BoJ/Ueda speech, and political headlines could trigger sharp moves. Cross-pair momentum : EURJPY at record highs, GBPJPY surging, confirming broad-based yen weakness. The bulls are in control as long as USDJPY stays above 151.15–150.50. Pullbacks to support offer opportunities to buy dips, with 154.80 as the next bullish target. Keep stop losses disciplined, and don’t ignore the chance for sharp reversals if intervention or a dramatic shift in sentiment emerges. For more actionable FX insight, follow ThinkMarkets. This content is not directed to residents of the EU or UK. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. ThinkMarkets will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
Long
by ThinkMarkets
USDCAD: Patient Fed & oil drop support iH&S projection to 1.4370USDCAD is building an interesting medium-term setup as crude oil weakness combines with Fed patience and supports dollar strength against the loonie, with an inverse head-and-shoulders pattern pointing to a measured-move target near 1.4370. Crude oil recently broke below $60, directly pressuring the Canadian dollar since Canada is a major commodity exporter. Meanwhile, the Fed's cautious stance on rate cuts, despite labour market softness ahead of a potential partial NFP on Friday, keeps the buck bid as investors hold dollars for yield. The technical structure confirms what the macro backdrop suggests: USDCAD has room to run higher from current levels. Key drivers Oil breakdown hurts CAD: crude slipped below $60 recently, and every time oil weakens, the commodity-linked loonie follows. This correlation has been tracking cleanly since July, when USDCAD turned higher alongside the energy sell-off. Fed patience supports USD: Despite labour-market weakness signals from existing data releases, the Fed isn't rushing to cut in December, and a patient central bank typically supports the dollar because investors can hold dollars and earn decent carry while awaiting clarity on policy. Inverse H&S pattern: The technical setup shows a head near 1.3537, a neckline breakout near 1.3900, and a clean retest at 1.3985 (former 2022 resistance turned support). The measured move from head to neckline brings 1.4370 into play, with intermediate targets at swing levels. RSI reset above 50: After showing flat divergence at the recent highs, the RSI has reset by bouncing cleanly off the 50 line on the daily chart, suggesting momentum has room for another leg higher before any overbought concern. Use 1.3985 as your line in the sand, consider longs above this level with the first target at the peak of 1.4145 (validation of the breakout), the second at 1.4250, and trail stops toward 1.4370 if momentum holds. Watch for oil to remain below $60 and Fed messaging to stay cautious, as a daily close below 1.3985 would shift the bias to consolidation, while full pattern invalidation sits at 1.3720. This content is not directed to residents of the EU or UK. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. ThinkMarkets will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
Long
by ThinkMarkets
EURUSD: Dollar dips, butterfly pattern points higher!Today’s video looks at renewed dollar weakness and how EURUSD could extend its latest leg higher, with a harmonic butterfly structure pointing to further upside once this pullback runs its course. Reopening optimism around the US government has been overshadowed by a hawkish turn from Fed speakers, knocking rate‑cut odds for December back below 50% from around 60%. Simultaneously, gaps in labour data suggest that the upcoming NFP print may underestimate job losses, potentially undermining the dollar and bolstering the euro. Key drivers Fed officials Musalem and Hammack struck a more hawkish tone, while Kashkari openly questioned the need for further cuts in December, undermining dollar support and encouraging a shift into EUR. EURUSD remains technically strong after bouncing from 1.1578, with key support layered at 1.1580, 1.1541 and 1.1468 following a brief consolidation. A bullish harmonic butterfly off the recent lows highlights 1.1669-1.1700 as the next resistance zone, with 1.1728 and then 1.1822 as higher structural targets if momentum holds. RSI on the 4‑hour and 1‑hour charts points more to a healthy pullback than a reversal; a reset toward the 50 line could offer fresh long entries before another attempt at 1.1669–1.1728. Watch how price behaves around 1.1625–1.1580 on any intraday dip—staying above this zone keeps the bullish butterfly in play and opens the way for a push toward 1.17 and potentially 1.1822; manage longs around these levels and be prepared for headline‑driven volatility into the next US data releases. This content is not directed to residents of the EU or UK. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. ThinkMarkets will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
Long
by ThinkMarkets
1
CADJPY carry trade gains traction with iH&S, targets 118+The CADJPY carry trade is in focus as the yen stays weak and risk appetite lifts CAD toward a bigger breakout from an inverse head-and-shoulders base. Japan’s new PM, Takaichi, leans pro‑stimulus, while the BOJ signals no December hike, leaving JPY structurally soft. At the same time, Canada benefits from improved risk tone and a stable BOC policy, which supports CAD strength. Key drivers Structural JPY weakness: A stimulus-first stance and low-rate BOJ keep carry demand elevated, but intervention talk remains a headline risk. CAD tailwinds: US reopening-driven risk-on, oil support, and BOC on hold underpin the loonie. Technicals: An inverse H&S with a neckline projection toward 116–117, with a recent retest near 108–109 holding the line and RSI having room to push higher. Levels: supports at 110.00, then 109.50/108.30, and resistances at 111.50, 112.20, and 115.10, with the measured move pointing toward 116.5–118 from the neckline break. Bias stays long above 110. Buy dips, invalidate below 108, and scale targets at 111.50, 112.20, and 115.10, leaving a runner at 116.5–118 if the first neckline peak holds. This content is not directed to residents of the EU or UK. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. ThinkMarkets will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
Long
by ThinkMarkets
SPX wedge breakout: Reopen relief, 6780 tetest, 7k in SightS&P500 breaks out of a broadening wedge and retests 6780 support as government reopening odds fuel a relief bid.​ Senate progress towards ending the record shutdown has lifted the overhang on data releases and growth, triggering a risk-on bounce across US indices.​ Price action confirmed a breakout with a clean throwback to 6780, aided by hidden bullish divergence on momentum before the surge to 6850. Key drivers: Government reopening: bipartisan Senate advance and White House support shift odds towards a near‑term resolution. Technical confirmation: breakout from falling/broadening wedge, successful retest and RSI reset from overbought at 6850 towards midline supports continuation higher if 50 line holds.​ Levels in play: support 6800–6775 and 6750; resistance 6850–6890 then 6930 with psychological 7000 on extension if momentum rebuilds.​ Risk: reopening unleashes delayed macro data. A miss or policy hiccup could pull the price back toward the 50% area before the trend resumes and ahead of Nvidia earnings next week. Bias stays long while above 6775: buy dips to 6750 with invalidation below 6725; If 6690 fails on a daily close, step aside and reassess.
THINKMARKETS:SPX500Long
by ThinkMarkets
Bitcoin below 200‑day: Buy the dip or more downside?Bitcoin slid with US risk assets, and a clean break below its 200‑day average puts the 100K support in play right now.​ October’s Challenger report showed the biggest monthly job cuts in over two decades, souring sentiment and knocking cryptos alongside equities as traders reassessed near‑term Fed risks.​ Weak risk tone plus key technical breaks drove a second wave of selling after the early‑October crypto drawdown, keeping focus on whether 100K holds for Bitcoin.​ Key drivers: Macro shock: October layoffs surged to a 20‑year high, fuelling risk‑off and trimming rate‑cut confidence into year‑end.​ BTC technical break: price slipped under the 200‑day, and 50‑day momentum is fading; 100K is the first line of defence, then 92–94K if it fails.​ Moving averages are lagging: watch daily closes around these levels rather than one intraday pierce; breadth below long MAs warns of weak trend strength.​ Trade the levels, not the noise: defend 100K on BTC for bounce attempts. A daily close below turns focus to 92–94K on BTC before stronger supports.​ This content is not directed to residents of the EU or UK. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. ThinkMarkets will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
THINKMARKETS:BTCUSDLong
by ThinkMarkets
1
Nasdaq: Sharp tech drop sets up critical support testNasdaq slid 2% yesterday in its sharpest tech-led drop since late summer—are we looking at a healthy correction, or could there be a deeper move ahead? Caution returned to tech stocks as AI valuations and a handful of Big Tech earnings disappointed. The broader market also retreated, with traders watching for the next move from both the Fed and the earnings calendar. Key drivers: AI and semiconductor leaders like Nvidia, AMD, and Palantir led the selloff as investors questioned how much further the AI trade can run.​ Hawkish remarks from multiple Fed officials raised doubts about any imminent rate cuts, even after the recent 25bp cut, fuelling profit-taking in volatile growth names.​ Top Wall Street banks cautioned about stretched valuations, warning a 10–20% correction was possible as positioning remains crowded in mega caps.​ Technically, the Nasdaq is pulling back from historic highs, testing median channel support with RSI retreating toward neutral. Key resistances are near 25500 and 25750, with support showing at 25200 and then under 25k.​ Stay nimble and respect the potential range between 25450 and 25870 as pivotal for the next Nasdaq swing. Wait for strong resistance confirmation, but don’t ignore bounce risk if earnings and data surprise to the upside. This content is not directed to residents of the EU or UK. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. ThinkMarkets will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
THINKMARKETS:NAS100Short
by ThinkMarkets
EURGBP tests 0.88 as UK Budget crisis deepens: Where next?The dollar crushed all majors yesterday, but EURGBP tells a different story. The euro is surging against the pound as UK fiscal chaos and bets on a BOE rate cut accelerate. With an ascending triangle breakout confirmed, traders are targeting 0.89 and the psychological 0.90 handle. The Office for Budget Responsibility just revealed a £20 billion fiscal hole, forcing Chancellor Reeves to make tough choices in November's budget. Meanwhile, markets price 68% odds of a December BOE rate cut as inflation cools—two mega catalysts for GBP weakness. Key drivers UK fiscal crisis: £20 billion productivity forecast slash ahead of November 26 budget forces austerity measures, crushing pound confidence BOE rate cuts priced In: 68% December cut odds versus 30% November (food prices down 0.4% month-on-month, retail deflation for first time since March) Technical breakout: Ascending triangle break above 0.8800 opens clean path to 0.89 and 0.90; golden 61.8% Fibonacci sits at 0.8872 as magnet level Wedge pattern risk: Multiple Fibonacci clusters (0.89, 0.8876, 0.90) confirm upside targets, but final wave of rising wedge warns of sharp retracement after targets hit How to trade EURGBP? Long above 0.8775, target 0.8872 (golden Fib magnet) then 0.89-0.90. Stop below 0.8750. Watch BOE communications and November 26 budget details for confirmation. UK in crisis mode—don't fade the breakdown. This content is not directed to residents of the EU or UK. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. ThinkMarkets will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
Long
by ThinkMarkets
2
Russell 2000: Is the lagging small-cap about to charge higher?Russell 2000 is the laggard, while the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow scale new record highs. Could small caps be next to break out? While all major US equity indices are hitting new all-time highs, the Russell 2000 is still consolidating just below resistance. This sets up a pivotal moment for traders as the Fed decision looms and Q4 earnings heat up. Price is holding above the lower trendline of a potential ascending triangle pattern, with buyers defending support and momentum building for a potential breakout above peak resistance.​ RSI on a daily basis sits in the mid-50s (neutral), but with room for renewed upside if a breakout occurs. Alternatively, a reset down to oversold could lead to a short-term decline of around 5% to the prior bottom. But October’s strong earnings and increased bets on Fed rate cuts provide a positive tailwind for small caps this quarter.​ Watch for a shift in flows from big tech and mega-caps to small caps if market breadth improves post-Fed. Keep an eye on the top, as a breakout could open the door to new all-time highs and fresh momentum for the Russell 2000. Don’t miss the rotation potential as Q4 trading picks up. This content is not directed to residents of the EU or UK. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. ThinkMarkets will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
THINKMARKETS:US2000Long
by ThinkMarkets
Can WTI’s 8% Rally Hold After Trump-Putin Summit Collapse?WTI just staged its biggest two-day rally since June, as hopes for a Trump-Putin summit were dashed, leading to new US sanctions on Russian oil exports. Here’s what’s fuelling the move and what traders should watch next: - US sanctions on Russia’s top oil producers after failed Budapest summit trigger supply fears and spike prices - Trump escalates rhetoric to maintain leverage as Zelensky signs military deals with Sweden, raising geopolitical stakes - WTI reclaims key $61 resistance, with daily RSI momentum signalling room to run and a possible cup & handle breakout toward $68 - Supply glitch fears (India, OPEC’s slow reaction) and technicals all support continued upside if the current environment holds Watch for buy the dip signals, respect $61 support, and target the $65–68 channel top if current drivers persist. Stay tuned! This content is not directed to residents of the EU or UK. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. ThinkMarkets will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
THINKMARKETS:WTILong
by ThinkMarkets
10