Long

Updated

So what now ? Don't worry, that's just the beginning.

A massive short squeeze was enough for BTC to break up both MA100 ( Blue ) and MA50 ( Green ) and move over 6300$.

This is something we saw back in 2015 and it basically confirmed the end of bear trend.

While it's highly likely we'll see a deeper "technical" pullback on the upcoming days/weeks ( as MA50 still lags under MA100 ), Bitcoin is poised to move much higher on medium term and it's quite likely to consolidate over MA20 ( red ), as it did back in 2015-2016. As you noticed MA20 did turn up already.

MA50/MA100 crossover would finally confirm a strong and firm uptrend.

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NOTICE
Above the latest update for my BTC medium term ( 1W ) analysis.
You can read relevant previous posts here:

January 2019:

Bears are pushing, but Bulls are lurking

April 2019:

Breakout of upper BB may announce uptrend incoming.

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Technical pullback ongoing

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Let the pullback unfold, withiut hurrying.
As you may nitotice a topping formation ( head & shoulders ) is playing.

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A textbook pullback to FIB 0.618 and previous resistance ( now support ) at 6300$.
All in one night.

Good to fill some orders.

Accumulate on further weakness, wait for some consolidation.

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Broke up the rising wedge, already up 100$.
A small gift for daytrading, enjoy.

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We recently had a TD Count=18 on Daily.
That's a ***very rare*** occurrence.

A TD strip > 9 or 13 means a rather long sequence of days seeing a rising price.
While this has little or no importance at all short term, it has some potentialy interesting implications for the medium term scenario.

Look at the chart below:

Here's two things i want to point out:

1) TD strips exceeding 13 ( red square ) are extremely rare on downtrends / sideway market ( a single red line span ).
2) TD strips exceeding ( all squares, except the red one ) are pretty common into uptrends ( blue line span ).
3) The first TD strip exceeding 13 sequence after a bottom usually marks the start of an uptrend ( see green squares ).

Got the message ?
We''ll see whether we have an "early bird" here or not.

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A shame i cannot fix the typos :(
Below the fixed message. Sorry.

--

Here's the things i want to point out:

1) TD strips exceeding 13 ( that single red square ) are extremely rare on downtrends / sideway market ( red line span ).
2) TD strips exceeding 13 ( all squares, except the red one ) are pretty common in uptrends ( blue line span ).
3) The first TD strip exceeding 13 after a bottom usually marks the start of an uptrend ( see green squares ).

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Short term:

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!!!

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Rising wedge and divergences shown got confirmation.

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Healthy pullback please ?

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Posted elsewhere, 1 hour ago.

Hanging man + evening star in formation.
We've seen it in action already ;)

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To first log support.

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Approaching uptrend support.

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Medium term view, by comparison withj 2015-2016:

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BB bisector should be considered support.

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Further medium term considerations:

1) MA100 ( green ) is first true support.
2) MA50 ( blue ) still have to cross over MA100, meaning currently uprend is still fragile.
3) MA20 ( red ) is climbing fast. Once 2) is done it may become short term trend support.

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Rebound already over 11200$.
There's a chance it may nail 11700-12200$ area.

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Target area reached, crossroads ahead.

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Why crossroads ?

Because we had a pullback to previous support ( dotted red ), now resistance.
It's the upper bound of a broader rising wedge, with a -seemingly- smaill flag within. 12200-12500$ is resistance.

Short term price can move either way, with a slight bearish bias.
Use some caution and wait for market to pick some direction.

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A diamond or not a diamond ?

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Diamond top are among the *worst pattern to deal with*, as the may actually be half staffs as well.

Anyway, we have some noticeable risk of a topping pattern here.
So better acting accordingly and reduce risk.

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Alreay 500$ lower, but less resembling a diamond.
Mixed scenario.

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Inverted H&S, strong resistance ahead.

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Short term it may rebound, as 9400$ should act as support ( hopefully ).
Otherwise it would be rather ugly.

Anyway, mediium term i would expect a further low, unless 11800$ is recovered before monday.

Seems unlikely so far, we'll see.

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Breakout of descending channel, pullback to previous support unfolding.
Unless price breaks through 11000$ resistance area bears will keep control.

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Rejected already.

best bet for the bulls would be a further inverted H&S, with a right shoulder ideally above 9800$.

Anyway, unless the bulls manage to pierce through the previous support in 11k area bias keeps bearish.

f-73

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f-73