We find ourselves in a geopolitical uncertainty (Iran-Israel), where various opinions are circulating on social media. Some are bearish, others bullish, depending on the circumstances.
I believe there are three major scenarios that we need to consider and prepare for.
Before outlining these scenarios, it's important to understand that the 57.5k threshold is critical at the macro level. Why?
As shown by the orange line, it seems that each time the price has crossed above 57.5k, it has been a fake-out, leading either to a deeper correction or a shift in price behavior (bullish -> bearish). Therefore, the three scenarios are:
1. BTC does a fake-out below 57.5k in the near future, similar to the last three times, but still maintains a higher low (HL) compared to the last fake-out at 52.7k. Afterward, it turns 57.5k into support again and heads towards 65k, turns it into support, and flies off.
2. BTC goes to the 100 W-MA, as it has done in previous cycles, and from there follows the same path as in the first scenario.
3. In case of geopolitical tensions and new negative economic data or a Black Swan event, BTC falls to the 100 W-MA, fails to hold it as support, and moves towards the 28.5k area. Once this area is reached, it's possible to retest 57.5k, or it may not retest and drop directly to that zone (as happens in most Black Swan events).
I believe it's important that everyone develops a plan for each scenario and adjusts their risk-reward accordingly in the coming period.
I believe there are three major scenarios that we need to consider and prepare for.
Before outlining these scenarios, it's important to understand that the 57.5k threshold is critical at the macro level. Why?
As shown by the orange line, it seems that each time the price has crossed above 57.5k, it has been a fake-out, leading either to a deeper correction or a shift in price behavior (bullish -> bearish). Therefore, the three scenarios are:
1. BTC does a fake-out below 57.5k in the near future, similar to the last three times, but still maintains a higher low (HL) compared to the last fake-out at 52.7k. Afterward, it turns 57.5k into support again and heads towards 65k, turns it into support, and flies off.
2. BTC goes to the 100 W-MA, as it has done in previous cycles, and from there follows the same path as in the first scenario.
3. In case of geopolitical tensions and new negative economic data or a Black Swan event, BTC falls to the 100 W-MA, fails to hold it as support, and moves towards the 28.5k area. Once this area is reached, it's possible to retest 57.5k, or it may not retest and drop directly to that zone (as happens in most Black Swan events).
I believe it's important that everyone develops a plan for each scenario and adjusts their risk-reward accordingly in the coming period.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.