Updated

Sitting at the Turning Point.

We're at the turning point, at last.

Price still sitting upon MA100/W support ( 4 weeks later ), just like in 2016.
Shorter term MAs are now weaker though.

Weekly RSI sits at bottom of long term channel

Weekly OBV sits upon long term support

If what we are seeing is just a (well legit) correction within an uptrend, then it's ALMOST TIME for bulls to show up.
They should avoid at all costs a breakdown of all the aforementioned supports on a weekly close, or scenario would turn bad quickly.
A further intraweek spike down would be tolerable, but it should be absorbed quickly ( failed low , bear trap ) for the sake of the uptrend.

Failing that bears would take over.

Play carefully, let the market make the first move.
No hurry here.

Looking forward to monday price, for starters.

Have a nice WE.

Note

The Bollinger Bands squeeze ongoing tells a powerful move is coiling.

Be advised.

Note

I'll leave here a further "long term" consideration.
Rough and pretty simple.

What about Bitcoin 'fair' price as of now ?

First part of 2019 set a solid bottom just above 3000$ mark.
Let's assume it as "fair" for a moment.

Next let's consider the fact we've going to see a halving within few months.
As a rule of thumb i'd say market should already have 'priced' it.
Meaning that as of now Bitcoin may be 'perceived' as an asset having a "fair" price around the 6000$ mark.

This DOES NOT exclude the possibility of any dip lower, with the likely limit being -worst case- the MA200/W support, now in the 4700$ area.
I made some probabilistic considerations here:

Playground: probabilistic estimation of depth of the retrace

So don't hurry.

My point here that even such a hypothetical dip may quickly end into a bear trap, in my opinion.

Note

Bulls facig resistance.
A lot of resistance to be fair.

Let's see wheter they can overcome R1 for starters, that's the bare minimum or this would be just a pullback to (ex)support.

Note

In the meantime:

RSI/W:

MACD/W:

Note

Obviously these are WEEKLY charts, hence they're unrelated to shorter term price action.

Note

Ehhh ... typo. DAILY, not WEEKLY.

Time to sleep for me, enjoy ;)

Note

Here's the stong move foreseen days ago.

Not good short term, but we should see weekly close on sunday before making any further considerations. Medoum term scenario is unchanged for now.

Note

Bad picture.

Yest bulls maystill play the falling wedge card in order to achieve a bear trap.
IF the can afford it.

Note

Short term likely a rebound / pullback.
Mentioned below, as current post is for medium term considerations.

Note

Price is now close to the second meaningful support ( about 7200$ ):

CME futures expire today.

Recently ( see red vertical lines ) we've seen some recurring patterns ( worst case local rebounds ) after each expiration.

We'll see whether that's the case or not.
Looking forward to weekly colose on sunday.

Note

Comparing 2018/2019 correction and recovery vs. 2014/2015 on Godmode / LSMA.

While correctional phases had pretty similar extensions and timespan ( which helped me to pinpoint the low ), 2019 recovery was much more quick / abrupt.

Maybe price is ahead of time.

Note

Bulls should do their best to achieve a weekly close OVER SMA100/W ( green line ).

Note

Medium term considerations:
RSI/W and OBV/W are back on track ;)

Both should be double-checked on sunday weekly close though!

Note

Looking great.

Give me a weekly close now ;)

Note

Still at resistance, awaiting weekly close.

Note

Red line is MA20/W.

Bullish case would require a crossover of blue on green.
Then MA20/W should become support for the bull trend.

In order to do so bulls should breakout the purple wedge/pennant on volume.
That's still not the case, as price is still compressed into triangle over support.
So be cautious and follow closely.

f-73

Disclaimer

The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.

f-73