The underlying bullish trend in the price of Bitcoin remains intact despite uncertainty regarding the likelihood of a US Federal Funds rate cut at the next monetary policy decision on Wednesday, September 17.
The bullish cycle linked to the 2024 halving continues, and BTC/USD is still under the technical influence of the bullish breakout in early July from a bull flag continuation pattern.
What can we now expect from August from a technical standpoint for Bitcoin and altcoin prices?
1. August seasonality is favorable for BTC only in the final year of the 4-year cycle, and 2025 is the final year of the current cycle
August does not generally show strong average or median performance for BTC from a statistical seasonality perspective. However, when examining performance based on the year within Bitcoin’s 4-year cycle, we see that every final year of the cycle has featured a bullish August. This does not mean the market will rise steadily from August 1 to 31, but statistically, the end-of-month performance should be positive.
2. The positive correlation between Bitcoin’s price and global M2 liquidity suggests a favorable trend in August
Another factor supporting a bullish August is the positive correlation between Bitcoin’s price and the projected global M2 liquidity 12 weeks ahead. This correlation has worked well throughout the current cycle and suggests August will be bullish — though caution is warranted, as a correction is expected in September according to this approach.
3. From a chart analysis perspective, Bitcoin remains under the bullish influence of a bull flag continuation pattern
Bitcoin broke out to the upside from a bullish flag in early July, and this setup remains the dominant technical factor. The theoretical target of this pattern is $130,000, with an invalidation level below $110,000.
4. Altcoins are trending toward the previous cycle’s record highs from late 2021
The chart below shows the underlying trend in altcoins, excluding BTC, ETH, and stablecoins. Chart analysis also conveys a bullish message for this altcoin index in August. The invalidation level is below the $690B support.
DISCLAIMER:
This content is intended for individuals who are familiar with financial markets and instruments and is for information purposes only. The presented idea (including market commentary, market data and observations) is not a work product of any research department of Swissquote or its affiliates. This material is intended to highlight market action and does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice. If you are a retail investor or lack experience in trading complex financial products, it is advisable to seek professional advice from licensed advisor before making any financial decisions.
This content is not intended to manipulate the market or encourage any specific financial behavior.
Swissquote makes no representation or warranty as to the quality, completeness, accuracy, comprehensiveness or non-infringement of such content. The views expressed are those of the consultant and are provided for educational purposes only. Any information provided relating to a product or market should not be construed as recommending an investment strategy or transaction. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.
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Products and services of Swissquote are only intended for those permitted to receive them under local law.
All investments carry a degree of risk. The risk of loss in trading or holding financial instruments can be substantial. The value of financial instruments, including but not limited to stocks, bonds, cryptocurrencies, and other assets, can fluctuate both upwards and downwards. There is a significant risk of financial loss when buying, selling, holding, staking, or investing in these instruments. SQBE makes no recommendations regarding any specific investment, transaction, or the use of any particular investment strategy.
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. The vast majority of retail client accounts suffer capital losses when trading in CFDs. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Digital Assets are unregulated in most countries and consumer protection rules may not apply. As highly volatile speculative investments, Digital Assets are not suitable for investors without a high-risk tolerance. Make sure you understand each Digital Asset before you trade.
Cryptocurrencies are not considered legal tender in some jurisdictions and are subject to regulatory uncertainties.
The use of Internet-based systems can involve high risks, including, but not limited to, fraud, cyber-attacks, network and communication failures, as well as identity theft and phishing attacks related to crypto-assets.
The bullish cycle linked to the 2024 halving continues, and BTC/USD is still under the technical influence of the bullish breakout in early July from a bull flag continuation pattern.
What can we now expect from August from a technical standpoint for Bitcoin and altcoin prices?
1. August seasonality is favorable for BTC only in the final year of the 4-year cycle, and 2025 is the final year of the current cycle
August does not generally show strong average or median performance for BTC from a statistical seasonality perspective. However, when examining performance based on the year within Bitcoin’s 4-year cycle, we see that every final year of the cycle has featured a bullish August. This does not mean the market will rise steadily from August 1 to 31, but statistically, the end-of-month performance should be positive.
2. The positive correlation between Bitcoin’s price and global M2 liquidity suggests a favorable trend in August
Another factor supporting a bullish August is the positive correlation between Bitcoin’s price and the projected global M2 liquidity 12 weeks ahead. This correlation has worked well throughout the current cycle and suggests August will be bullish — though caution is warranted, as a correction is expected in September according to this approach.
3. From a chart analysis perspective, Bitcoin remains under the bullish influence of a bull flag continuation pattern
Bitcoin broke out to the upside from a bullish flag in early July, and this setup remains the dominant technical factor. The theoretical target of this pattern is $130,000, with an invalidation level below $110,000.
4. Altcoins are trending toward the previous cycle’s record highs from late 2021
The chart below shows the underlying trend in altcoins, excluding BTC, ETH, and stablecoins. Chart analysis also conveys a bullish message for this altcoin index in August. The invalidation level is below the $690B support.
DISCLAIMER:
This content is intended for individuals who are familiar with financial markets and instruments and is for information purposes only. The presented idea (including market commentary, market data and observations) is not a work product of any research department of Swissquote or its affiliates. This material is intended to highlight market action and does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice. If you are a retail investor or lack experience in trading complex financial products, it is advisable to seek professional advice from licensed advisor before making any financial decisions.
This content is not intended to manipulate the market or encourage any specific financial behavior.
Swissquote makes no representation or warranty as to the quality, completeness, accuracy, comprehensiveness or non-infringement of such content. The views expressed are those of the consultant and are provided for educational purposes only. Any information provided relating to a product or market should not be construed as recommending an investment strategy or transaction. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.
Swissquote and its employees and representatives shall in no event be held liable for any damages or losses arising directly or indirectly from decisions made on the basis of this content.
The use of any third-party brands or trademarks is for information only and does not imply endorsement by Swissquote, or that the trademark owner has authorised Swissquote to promote its products or services.
Swissquote is the marketing brand for the activities of Swissquote Bank Ltd (Switzerland) regulated by FINMA, Swissquote Capital Markets Limited regulated by CySEC (Cyprus), Swissquote Bank Europe SA (Luxembourg) regulated by the CSSF, Swissquote Ltd (UK) regulated by the FCA, Swissquote Financial Services (Malta) Ltd regulated by the Malta Financial Services Authority, Swissquote MEA Ltd. (UAE) regulated by the Dubai Financial Services Authority, Swissquote Pte Ltd (Singapore) regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore, Swissquote Asia Limited (Hong Kong) licensed by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission (SFC) and Swissquote South Africa (Pty) Ltd supervised by the FSCA.
Products and services of Swissquote are only intended for those permitted to receive them under local law.
All investments carry a degree of risk. The risk of loss in trading or holding financial instruments can be substantial. The value of financial instruments, including but not limited to stocks, bonds, cryptocurrencies, and other assets, can fluctuate both upwards and downwards. There is a significant risk of financial loss when buying, selling, holding, staking, or investing in these instruments. SQBE makes no recommendations regarding any specific investment, transaction, or the use of any particular investment strategy.
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. The vast majority of retail client accounts suffer capital losses when trading in CFDs. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Digital Assets are unregulated in most countries and consumer protection rules may not apply. As highly volatile speculative investments, Digital Assets are not suitable for investors without a high-risk tolerance. Make sure you understand each Digital Asset before you trade.
Cryptocurrencies are not considered legal tender in some jurisdictions and are subject to regulatory uncertainties.
The use of Internet-based systems can involve high risks, including, but not limited to, fraud, cyber-attacks, network and communication failures, as well as identity theft and phishing attacks related to crypto-assets.
This content is written by Vincent Ganne for Swissquote.
This content is intended for individuals who are familiar with financial markets and instruments and is for information purposes only and does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice.
This content is intended for individuals who are familiar with financial markets and instruments and is for information purposes only and does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
This content is written by Vincent Ganne for Swissquote.
This content is intended for individuals who are familiar with financial markets and instruments and is for information purposes only and does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice.
This content is intended for individuals who are familiar with financial markets and instruments and is for information purposes only and does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.