Updated

Volume makes it tricky. Watch out for a possible dump.

We have declining volume and some bearish hints.

Unless volume picks up + Bitcoin manages to breakout/reject the wedge the odds for a sensible correction will grow, day by day.

Keep an eye on support, don't take more risk on a confirmed breadown.
Be vigilant in case of price moving down to the 50-55k danger zone.
Have a SL.

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Straight down into the danger zone.
We just saw a > 10.000$ swing down to 51.000$, all this within about 24hrs.

Now bouncing.
Watch out, that's hardly over.

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Awaiting breakout of the 1H triangle.

Bounce or slump.

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Usual futures expiration volatility.
Let's wait and see the dust settle.

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Nothing new so far.

Bears keep in control under 57k.

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Danger zone pierced, we're in troublesome waters.

That said 1H hints a bounce looming.

Be aware of risks: that's like catching a fallling knife.
No warranty.

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The whole picture, as per opening post:

Today close matters.

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Bouncing.
look at close tonight.

IF it can manage to place a close over 50k and paint a hammer may bounce further.

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Meanwhile on TF 1H:

Playing nice, let's see how far it can keep with the arrow.
If it manages to touch resistance it may try to confirm that falling wedge, eventually.

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As usual, be careful.
Here you're playing with fire.

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Bit late, but bounce ongoing after TD count=9.

Fair enough.

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Testing top of danger zone.

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Still not out of the woods, so far.

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Vertex of rising wedge.
Watch it, as if the pattern gets confirmed a dip towards 51k area may happen.

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Here we go.

Let's see, i would welcome an inverted H&S.
Soon to say.

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Looks a inverted H&S indeed.

Small right shoulder ( did not pierce 52k), but at neckline already:

We'll see.
Hopefully it will achieve a pullback to previous support, now resistance.

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Have a trailing stop.

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Pullback ongoing, close to 60k mark but failing to nail the critical 62k area.

All we have is some uninteresting price action on low volume.

We have a rising wedge, so watch out.

For now we have to wait for some volume to kick in in order to make any meaningful evaluation. No hurry.

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Pullback to wedge support (now resistance) and down again.

Ugly.

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Let's consider bad and worst (dashed) scenario, for a moment.

Whatever will happen, that's enough to use some caution if you're Long ....
Watch out.

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Anything below the light blue support on close would call for trouble.

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Guess what ?

;)

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Watch it carefully. Whole scenario:

Ongoing critical test of MM20/W.

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Chart update, some lines removed for clarity.

It may find support on the fuchsia line and bounce.
Otherwise down to target box ( see post above )

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First 30% correction of year achieved ( close price computation ).
Historically buying 30% correction for long term holding is rewarding.

See below: red bars are BUYs on 30% corrections.
Blue bars are monthly buys (e.g. accumulation plan ).

Historically (from 2010 onwards) red chart outperforms blue chart.
Nowadays by about 100%.

Meaning that buyng the dips usually outperforms accumulation.
That's why i always buy this kind of dip, even repeatedly, without caring about the ongoing weakening.

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No bounce, straight to target box.
Very impulsive move, no buying pressure so far.

This spells for trouble unless we can get a bounce by weekly close.

f-73

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