As you may appreciate, price action is bullish, but basically constrained to a rising wedge.
Moreover price is already in touch with upper monthly BB, area of maximum resistance.
October volume so far looks unimpressive despite the upmove and BBs are slightly shrinking.
Overall all the above looks pretty bearish, of course.
We do have to keep an eye on key areas such as 10500-10800$ and 9000$.
Yet we shouldn't (yet) jump to conclusions and instantly bet on a bearish outcome.
On the contrary we'd better wait and see.
As you may notice RSI / Stock RSI aren't flashing red signals yet.
CMF looks still healthy, as well as MACD.
We should also consider that a hyphotetical breakout of upper BB confirmed on monthly close would be a very bullish event.
As well as a rejection of such a rising wedge, despite being against probabilities.
That would spark a sensible further upmove, eventually.
Finally we have to weigh in the fact we just had a monthly Parabolic SAR flipping, which is itself encouraging (as i posted elsewhere).
So we're at a crossroad.
My honest advice is the following: don't take any decisions now.
Ignore spikes and wait for upcoming monthly close.
Have a SL if you're in, give it a chance.
Moreover price is already in touch with upper monthly BB, area of maximum resistance.
October volume so far looks unimpressive despite the upmove and BBs are slightly shrinking.
Overall all the above looks pretty bearish, of course.
We do have to keep an eye on key areas such as 10500-10800$ and 9000$.
Yet we shouldn't (yet) jump to conclusions and instantly bet on a bearish outcome.
On the contrary we'd better wait and see.
As you may notice RSI / Stock RSI aren't flashing red signals yet.
CMF looks still healthy, as well as MACD.
We should also consider that a hyphotetical breakout of upper BB confirmed on monthly close would be a very bullish event.
As well as a rejection of such a rising wedge, despite being against probabilities.
That would spark a sensible further upmove, eventually.
Finally we have to weigh in the fact we just had a monthly Parabolic SAR flipping, which is itself encouraging (as i posted elsewhere).
So we're at a crossroad.
My honest advice is the following: don't take any decisions now.
Ignore spikes and wait for upcoming monthly close.
Have a SL if you're in, give it a chance.
Note
Trying to overcome upper BB.Still 5 days to monthly close ...
Note
This is dangerous: back into rising wedge and close to upper BB:Price needs to confirm the attempted breakout or things will get cumbersome from there.
Have a stop, don't play with fire here.
Note
Still 3 days to monthly close.Friday CME futures expiration.
Further volatility likely.
Note
Yes, today is the day.Let's see this monthly close.
Note
Reached 14100$ resistance.Note
Mission accomplished:* Parabolic SAR reversal: achieved
* Close over upper monhtly BB. achieved
I'd expect very high volatility within 2 months and hopefully a strong impulse.
More insight within next analysis.
Note
Now IF bulls manage to breakout upper BB also on 2M (2 MONTH) timeframe in NOVEMBER we may achieve a moon setup.You may appreciate the triangle as well as 10.000$ area acting as possibile last-stand support.
Note
(Short term)In the meantime, watch that rising wedge,
Note
*IF* that wedge triggers a quick dip to 12.300-12.000$ may happen.So don't underestimate that.
Just a word of caution.
Note
Watch it, on the edge of the wedge.Over-extended, high TD count (exceeding 13 ).
Note
While price still keeps some momentum the risk of a flash crash is still looming and probably nearing (within 7-10 days eventually). Unless BTC manages to further breakout 16.000$ on volume the following scenario may come into play:
So you'd better carefully evalutate your options.
Note
Pullback ongoing.Note
Well, it's moving fast.Typical flashcrash.
Note
Already got to the 14300$ area target i forecasted above.It took just a few hours instead of 3/4 days.
It may have some more margin.
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.